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References Chabot, H. (2021, Dec). The best way to get back to normal after devastating tornados? Just start somewhere. https://news.northeastern.edu/2021/12/14/tornado-disaster-recovery-efforts/

Hass, A. & Ellis, K. (2021, Dec 13). Why the southern US is prone to December tornadoes. https://theconversation.com/why-the-southern-us-is-prone-to-december-tornadoes-173643

Parker, D.J. (2020) Disaster resilience: A challenged science. Environmental Hazards, 19(1), 1-9, DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2019.1694857

Wood, E. (2020, Aug). What Isaias Laid Bare about the East Coast’s Progress — or Lack of — on Energy Resilience. Microgrid Knowledge. https://microgridknowledge.com/isaias-microgrids-east-coast/

United Nations Strategy It is critical to note that there is a greater international effort looking at the natural disaster resilience connection. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction builds on the NSF effort. Notes the United Nations Strategy,

The unprecedented frequency and costs of natural disasters and the projected increase of their severity due to climate change are posing significant economic challenges and new risks for vulnerable populations. New approaches and investments aimed at building resilience to natural disasters are required by all actors to help stem future losses. New frameworks for cooperation are emerging and the financial savings from such investments in resilience promise to be significant”.

So, what is the way forward regarding resilience and natural disasters? The same United Nations strategy offers the following:

Building resilience to natural disasters: a framework for private sector engagement” The report recommends a series of concrete actions that “key industries can take, in collaboration with governments and civil society, to strengthen the global capacity to withstand disasters. Building Resilience also presents dialogue participants’ broader findings for mainstreaming resilience into core business activities. As such, the report serves as a preliminary roadmap for deepening industry engagement in disaster risk reduction and for catalyzing innovative public-private partnerships.

Fires One other area of resilience that really has come into national focus are wildfires in California. In 2018, three fires garnered attention up and down the coast. The most horrific issue was the destruction of the northern town of Paradise California. There were 6,453 homes destroyed.

Kpbs.org (California Camp Fire)

The Camp Fire, which decimated Paradise, has already burned about 117,000 acres and is only about 30 percent contained.

An estimated 435 structures have been destroyed in the Woolsey Fire west of Los Angeles, up from the 177 figures provided the day before. Another 57,000 structures are believed to be under threat. Two people have died in that fire, which is 30 percent contained and has charred more than 90,000 acres in communities like Malibu and Thousand Oaks. Another blaze that has torn through 4,500 acres in Ventura County, the Hill Fire, was 85 percent contained.

In 2020, the number and impact of national wildfires in California, Oregon, Washington state and Colorado was even more impactful. As the year ended 16,000 square miles had been charred. It seemed like not a day went by when the National Weather Service issued its’ most serious fire warning - "red flag due to exceptionally dry land, strong winds (especially the Santa Anas, and single-digit humidity. To put the figure of 16,000 square miles in context this is the same size as Maryland and Rhode Island combined!

(Harrison Hill, USA Today)

The Center of Gravity for the 2020 fires was California with 6,500 square miles burned. To put this in context this is about the size of Massachusetts. Additionally, looking back from CalFires records this is DOUBLE what was experienced in the 1980s. Although there are “climate change deniers” the science underscores that several climate related issues fueled this fire. One of the biggest issues is a reduced snowpack and a season that was very, very dry.

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes The concerns regarding a need for a national commitment of resilience to address natural threats is real. Countless reports, strategy, analysis and studies have underscored the benefits of a resilience perspective when building homes, developing power systems and even rail routes. The bigger question is…can the current effort be increased? Three major hurricanes in 2017 underscore that the problem is not going away. Want a visual image of what a power system that is not resilient looks like after at Category 5 storm…consider Puerto Rico post Hurricane Marie.

More recently a Tropical Storm demonstrated that just because an event is not a hurricane the impact on power systems and the need for resilience is CRITICAL. One example is Tropical Storm Isaias which impacted the state of Connecticut on August 4, 2020. Wind gusts reached 68 miles per hour….below hurricane level…however the impact was significant…675,000 homes lost power. Six days after the event several hundred thousand STILL were out of powers as temperatures rose. Following the disaster, a long look at the power system’s resilience was conducted. The number of houses without power actually were more than Tropical Storm Irene, Hurricane Gloria, and Hurricane Sandy.

Brooklyn, NY in the aftermath of tropical storm Isaias. Leonard Zhukovsky/Shutterstock.com

What happened in Connecticut underscores the need for resilience addressing natural disasters such as the development of microgrids. Elisa Wood (2020, August) noted in here essay, “What Isaias Laid Bare about the East Coast’s Progress — or Lack of — on Energy Resilience”. Noted Wood:

Whatever the approach — grants, better utility interconnection rules, or policy innovation like VDER credits — it’s clear that the East Coast needs to take some new action when it comes to microgrids, especially those built for communities. Weather forecasters say this is the beginning of what could be the most active hurricane season on record. Isaias laid bare that eight years after Sandy, East Coast states still aren’t prepared. (https://microgridknowledge.com/isaias-microgrids-east-coast/)

Tornadoes In 2021, the newest threat vector was tornadoes in the fall and winter in the Midwest. Starting on December 10th and lasting 2 days the country saw a massive outbreak of exceptionally powerful tornadoes. These monster storms destroyed parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. There was a total of 38 tornados which resulted in a large number of people killed and an exceptionally large series of areas that were completely destroyed. “Hazard climatologists Alisa Hass and Kelsey Ellis explain the conditions that generated this event – including what may be the first “quad-state tornado” in the U.S. – and why the Southeast is vulnerable to these disasters year-round, especially at night” (Hass & Ellis, 2021). There were at least “four EF-3 and five EF-2 tornadoes have been confirmed. EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes are considered strong, with wind speeds of 111-135 mph and 136-165 mph respectively” (Hass & Ellis, 2021).

(businessinsder.com)

(National Weather Service, 2021)

One of the hardest hit areas from this series of tornadoes was Mayfield, KY in which a candle factory was flattened. The psychological resilience to address this destruction is significant. Noted Northeastern University Dr Aaron B. Daniels, a psychology professor who studies mindfulness and spirituality.

(The Washington Post, Dec 13, 2021)

“For the next few days, maybe weeks, you need to leave room for all the different reactions,” says Daniels. “I think in the face of these disasters it helps to give people something to do. Folding blankets, packing food, setting up cots. Sitting with grief is one thing, and there will be time for that. But initially, something to do, to be a part of the community and feel helpful, as opposed to sitting back and staring at the rubble or thinking about the loss of loved ones” (Chabot, 2021).

The resilience needed for the long term will be both significant and long term. added Northeastern University’s Dr Daniel Aldrich, a Northeastern professor who studies post-disaster recovery. “The return to normal will likely be slow, particularly in Kentucky which had the largest number of deaths. Daniels says ensuring that first responders and community leaders have an outlet to process their feelings will help neighborhoods overall, especially after the first rush of aid ebbs.

“I’d focus on the leaders and first responders, because they will be the ones that we hope are able to pivot in their role and help others. So, I’d really channel a lot of support there. I’d also reach out to whatever clergy is present and check where they’re at. Have they had any training in this? Do they have a background? And if so, let’s see how we can mobilize them,” noted Aldrich (Chabot, 2021).

The New Madrid Seismic Zone According to the state of Missouri “The New Madrid Seismic Zone, is another significant resilience issue…it an active and averages about 200 measured events per year (magnitude 1.0 or greater). Tremors large enough to be felt (magnitude 2.5 – 3.0) occur annually. On average every 18 months, the fault releases a shock of magnitude 4.0 or greater, which is capable of local minor damage. A magnitude 5.0 or greater occurs about once per decade, can cause significant damage and be felt in several states”.

Think about the impact of this type of magnitude earthquake on every single sector within the mid-west from banking to transportation.

The White House has taken the issue of resilience and earthquakes very seriously. Specifically, this concern was captured in a February 2016 Executive Order (EO) entitled Establishing a Federal Earthquake Risk Management Standard.

The Executive Order has two primary focuses:

(1) Improve the resilience and enhance the capability of essential Federal buildings to function during and after an earthquake.

(2) Reduce risk to the lives of persons who would be affected by earthquake failures in federally-owned, leased, assisted, and regulated buildings”.

This new EO actually formally revoked EO 12699 from 1990. The new EO was in response to the California Loma Prieta and Northridge earthquakes, respectively.

So, what more can be done to address resilience and its connection to natural disasters? The National Science Foundation has looked at elements of resilience that have received considerable notice in academic writings. Consider the May 1999 super tornado (F5) that destroyed a large portion of Moore, Oklahoma. Just a few minutes made all the difference in the world. According to numerous reports local residents had 16 minutes to take shelter. Now this may not seem like a resilience issue by 16 minutes is an eternity when it comes to tornado safety.

Sue Ogrocki/AP, A fire burns in the Tower Plaza Addition in Moore Oklahoma

This emphasis on early warning gives people the time they need to get into a shelter and out of harm’s way. In addition, “NSF has launched a new program, Hazards, Science, Engineering, Education for Sustainability (SEES), designed to encourage physical scientists and engineers to work more closely with social and behavioral researchers with the idea of including the human element in understanding and responding to hazards, including severe weather prediction. The goals include finding better ways of communicating threats, understanding how people respond to warnings, and persuading them to trust the information”. This cross-discipline effort will bring multiple perspectives together to work the issue of resilience.

Introduction: Natural Threats to Resilience In the first two weeks of the course, you were provided a foundation to understand resilience from a very theoretical and strategic perspective. In week 3 we look at some very practical aspects of resilience such as the nation’s ability to withstand a significant natural disaster such as a massive number of significant wildfires such as those experienced by California in the last few years. Additionally, I want you to consider the intersection of resilience, threats and fear.

There is an old saying that you can’t control Mother Nature. This statement, in and of itself, has been true for centuries. Try as we might the human race has not found a way to interdict hurricanes or typhoons. Although the early warning systems are getting more accurate, quicker and well accepted there is still no way to stop an F5 tornado or an 8.0 magnitude earthquake. What has occurred is a greater understanding of the connection between natural threats to resilience. Want an example that most students will immediately understand. Consider the building code that is in place in Miami Dade County for homes and buildings.

This region in the United States has one of the single strictest building codes in the country. How strict? Buildings are REQUIRED to be constructed to withstand Category 5 hurricane force winds. These are winds that exceed, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, winds of 156 mph (251 km/h) or stronger.

(npr.org)

The effort at instilling resilience to address disasters has gone international. Parker (2020) noted regarding resilience to disasters and other man-made issues that:

The concept is now embedded within international discourse and plays a key role in international, national and local policy and development. It underpins the UN’s Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction [UNDRR], 2015), it’s Paris Agreement on Climate Change (United Nations [UN], 2015a) and it’s Sustainable Development Goals (United Nations [UN], 2015b). Forty-five OECD countries have adopted national resilience strategies1 and international development is experiencing a ‘resilience revolution”.

In addition to these national efforts, resilience to address disasters has expanded to the city level. Over 100 world cities are in the 100 Resilient Cities network. In addition, over one thousand municipalities actively engage in the United National ‘Making Cities Resilient Campaign’ (UNISDR, 2012).

The resilience effort goes beyond simply the building code. It is mandatory for companies to have hurricane preparedness and recovery plans that allow the businesses to be prepared for an inbound storm. Finally, the Miami Dade power grid, which includes production, distribution and delivery systems, have all been strengthened. Why is this important? A more resilient power grid means much shorter power outages. Data underscores this point. In 2017, following the impact of Hurricane Irma it took one week to restore the power grid. Back in 2005 during Hurricane Wilma it took over two weeks.

(theguardian.com)

The Miami Dade example is just one location and one specific type of threat vector. There many other examples of the connection between natural threats (disasters) and homeland security focused. Think of the impact of another major disaster such as an earthquake. What would occur? There would be significant economic disruption caused by major impacts to the supply chain. There could be the potential for loss of life, loss of property, even significant impact on social well-being.

Case in point. Consider a major threat to resilience that the United States is looking at squarely in the eye yet has not been widely discussed in a manner that could promote as “see something say something approach”. The two threat areas I am highlighting are both earthquake based. But the applications and the resulting devastation could quickly be applied to other disasters. Consider the case with the San Andreas Fault and the Mid-West’s New Madrid Fault. The significant of the San Andreas Fault was captured in a story in a 2008 Los Angeles Times which reported that a U.S. Geological Survey report warned that a 7.8-magnitude quake could cause more than 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries. New Madrid is equally devastating.

About the New Madrid Seismic Zone

The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) extends 120 miles south from Charleston, Missouri, following Interstate 55 to near Marked Tree, Arkansas. The NMSZ consists of a series of large, ancient faults that are buried beneath thick, soft sediments. These faults cross five state lines, the Mississippi River in three places and the Ohio River in two places.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone is active and averages about 200 measured events per year (magnitude 1.0 or greater). Tremors large enough to be felt (magnitude 2.5 – 3.0) occur annually. On average every 18 months, the fault releases a shock of magnitude 4.0 or greater, which is capable of local minor damage. A magnitude 5.0 or greater occurs about once per decade, can cause significant damage and be felt in several states.

The highest earthquake risk in the United States outside the West Coast is in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Damaging earthquakes are not as frequent as in California. But when they do occur, the destruction covers more than 20 times the area due to the geologic differences between the two regions.

The Great New Madrid Earthquakes of 1811-12 were a series of over 2,000 seismic events, which occurred for approximately five months, beginning December 16, 1811. Several of those earthquakes are believed to have been magnitude 7.0 or greater. There were reports of church bells ringing in Boston and of shaking being felt as far away as the Caribbean. The town of New Madrid was destroyed. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the earthquakes caused ground warping, sand eruptions, fissures and landslides along river banks. They are believed to be the largest earthquakes east of the Rocky Mountains in the history of the U.S.

A damaging earthquake in the NMSZ of magnitude 6.0 or greater occurs about once every 80 years. The last of that magnitude was a 6.6 event in 1895 near Charleston, Missouri. The USGS reports there is a 25 percent to 40 percent chance of a similar size earthquake occurring within 50 years. Un-reinforced masonry buildings and other structures from Memphis to St. Louis could experience serious damage. The USGS reports that catastrophic upheavals like those in 1811-12 could visit the New Madrid region every 500-600 years. However, even though the chance is remote, experts suggest there is a 7 percent to 10 percent chance for a large earthquake similar to the 1811-12 New Madrid events in the next 50 years.

Where do earthquakes occur? In the central United States annually, the greatest numbers of earthquakes are associated with the area just south of the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers. However, other fault zones produce felt earthquakes, including some that have caused structural damage and injuries.

Our greatest concerns are magnitude 6.0-7.6 events, which do have significant probabilities in the near future. Damaging earthquakes of this magnitude are very likely within the lifetimes of our children. The USGS stated a 7.6 magnitude earthquake would likely be the strongest event that could occur in the NMSZ.

What does earthquake magnitude mean? Earthquake magnitudes are commonly reported as a “Richter scale” number. Richter magnitude refers to the measurement of the amplitude of the seismograph record and not the size, or energy released by the earthquake itself. Modern earthquake magnitude measurements are based on the area ruptured by the causative fault and the strength of earth materials that are ruptured during an earthquake. These newer magnitude measurements are a more accurate way to describe earthquake strength.

What is site response? Site response refers to the observed or predicted behavior of geological materials to earthquake shaking. Geologic hazard maps define earthquake hazards based on the distribution types of these unconsolidated materials. River or stream sediments can liquefy during large earthquakes and cause damage to structures as they partly sink or tilt. Ground motion can also be amplified in areas that have soft, thick soils. Areas that have thin and stiff soils over dense hard bedrock can be expected to have lower levels of shaking and associated structural damage.

How much increase in energy does each unit magnitude scale represent? Each whole magnitude number increase represents 10 times the amplitude recorded by a seismograph (6.0 to a 7.0 magnitude). Each whole number step in the magnitude scale corresponds to the release of about 32 times more energy than the amount associated with the preceding whole number value. Therefore, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake is 32 times more powerful than a 6.0 magnitude earthquake.

What can we do to protect ourselves? Education, planning, proper building construction and preparedness are proven means to minimize earthquake losses, deaths and injuries. In recent years, San Francisco and Armenia both experienced 6.0 to 7.1 magnitude quakes. San Francisco prepared by defining potential geological hazard areas, adopting earthquake resistant building design codes and educating the public. Armenia had not adopted similar hazard planning strategies. San Francisco suffered 67 deaths and less than $7 billion in property losses. Armenia had over 25,000 deaths and sustained more than $20 billion in property losses. In October 2009, the Vanuatu region northeast of Australia had three earthquakes of 6.8 to 7.7 magnitude. Losses were minimal in this event because the epicenter was in a remote location.

Remember to "Drop, Cover and Hold On"when you feel shaking! The Southern California Earthquake Center is one of many official agencies that urge you to “DROP, COVER and HOLD ON” as soon as shaking begins. The center reports that search and rescue teams that have been involved in rescues of trapped survivors in the U.S. and other countries have concluded that “Drop, Cover and Hold On” is the best way to reduce injuries and deaths during an earthquake. This is also the consensus among emergency managers, researchers and school safety advocates. If you feel shaking, DROP to the ground immediately, take COVER under a sturdy desk or table, and HOLD ON until the shaking stops.

We have a choice. We cannot prevent an earthquake – it will happen – but we can reduce the potential loss of life. You can go to the Missouri State Emergency Management Agency’s website (/earthquake_preparedness/) to download earthquake information. You can also call SEMA at (573) 526-9100 for free literature on protecting yourself and your property.

This fact sheet was prepared by the State Emergency Management Agency in coordination with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources Division of Geology and Land Survey. (Revised - March 2010)

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