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06.10.2023
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files (8)

CAPGuidanceandGoundRules2.pdf
CAPSupportRequestLetter1.pdf
HistoricalTrendsPresidentialDisasterDeclarationSystem.pdf
Hazardandthreatlist.pdf
StreetSigns-Dr.JamesCanton-YouTube.pdf
CAPTemplate1.docx
IanGoldin_Navigatingourglobalfuture_TEDTalk.pdf
MitigationIdeas.pdf

CAPGuidanceandGoundRules2.pdf

CAP Guidance and Ground Rules

1. Please reach out to me if you have any questions or concerns.

2. You must use the provided CAP Template for the project, and all areas in the template must be addressed.

3. You only need to address a total of 9 threats in your CAP Threat Forecast (3 Natural/Manmade; 3 Product/Process; and 3 Fictitious).

4. You can use and building on the work completed in the Wk2-3 Discussion in your CAP.

5. As a CAP is a team Effort; you can seek help from help each other.

6. You can use any open score material from the internet; you should tailor it to meet your organization.

7. APA is not required in your CAP. You are not required to cite or reference sources in the CAP

8. You can cut and paste information into you CAP

9. Most importantly; Have Fun: Although this is educational, I want it to be an enjoyable project. The overall goal is to ensure you can create an organizational CAP based on its mission, critical functions, and threats.

CAPSupportRequestLetter1.pdf

Dr. Darrell Dantzler July 10, 2023 5631 Goshawk Ct

Waldorf, Maryland, 20601

[email protected]

TOWHOM IT MAY CONCERN:

The student presenting this letter is enrolled in EDMG560, Crisis Action Planning, which is a graduate

course in Emergency and Disaster Management at this university. One of the class assignments is to

develop a Crisis Action Plan for an organization of the student's choice. The student would like to create a

crisis action plan for your organization.

The student will bring a skill set to the project that is pretty unique. He or she has studied the FEMA

Strategic Foresight Initiative; strategic forecasting strategies for business and government; 21st century

threat possibilities; and development of threat profiles. The plan itself will cover the activities of planning

and preparation; mitigation; and response and recovery. Not every organization has the resources to put

someone with this skill set on staff, so this is essentially a free consulting opportunity for your

organization. Since this assignment was established, plans have been put in place in organizations across

the world just like yours-in every type of operation from the North American Air Defense command to the

Daycare Center in your neighborhood. The project is a win-win for all involved.

The student will require a functional knowledge of how your organization operates, and so would benefit

from discussion with a knowledgeable person from your staff. Some organizations have participated by

allowing students access to management working groups, although that's certainly not necessary. No

proprietary, confidential, or classified information is necessary to fill out this plan. The student and the

university appreciate your support. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact me at 301-219-

9946.

Sincerely,

Darrell Dantzler, PhD

Associate Professor

Emergency and Disaster Management

School of Security and Global Studies

HistoricalTrendsPresidentialDisasterDeclarationSystem.pdf

Historical Trends & Presidential Disaster Declaration System

Future studies is a comparatively new field of study, as is emergency management. Future studies was born from the recognition that if society and civilization were to reach their full potential, something would need to be done about the fact that future events kept coming along that would derail humankind's best efforts. Humankind doesn't like events beyond our knowledge, our understanding, or our control.

Of course, it's pretty obvious that some events will always be beyond our control - hurricanes, for example - but that in no way prevented us from be able to understand them, and to use that knowledge to mitigate the damage from

them. The trick then, is to know about them before they happen - and so organized, logical, rational methods were developed that at least partially enable us to know the future before it happens.

There are many techniques. If an event can be reduced to a set of descriptive numbers, then a forecast model could be developed that established relationships between the known causes and the results, and could then be used to estimate future results given future causes. Simple forecasts based on simple physics are extremely accurate, but complex forecasts based on complex causation proved much less so. Weather forecasts are a great example. The accuracy of the modern weather forecast given the complexity of the system is really quite remarkable, but the forecast will still have considerable uncertainty built in. You'll notice when the Weather Channel gives a hurricane's forecast path, they actually give the results of several models, some of which will show considerable divergence from the others. So at best, forecasting is imprecise.

Another technique is simply to gather a group of experience individuals in a given topic, and ask them what they think is going to happen. Discussion will likely result in a general consensus, with perhaps a minority opinion from a dissenter or two. Group forecasting has a weakness, though, which is that it's very difficult for a group to generate a forecast for an event outside of their collective experiences. For that reason, a diverse group is usually more effective at coming up with broad-ranging possibilities - but not at developing consensus. It's a trade-off.

Hazardandthreatlist.pdf

Hazards to be evaluated shall include the following:

(1) Geological:

(a) Earthquake

(b) Landslide, mudslide, subsidence

(d) Volcano

(2) Meteorological:

(a) Drought

(b) Extreme temperatures (hot, cold)

(d) Flood, flash flood, seiche, tidal surge

(e) Geomagnetic storm

(f) Lightning

(g) Snow, ice, hail, sleet, avalanche

(h) Wildland fire

(i) Windstorm, tropical cyclone, hurricane, tornado, water spout, dust storm,

sandstorm

(3) Biological:

(a) Food-borne illnesses

(b) Infectious/communicable/pandemic diseases

(4) Accidental:

(a) Building/structure collapse

(b) Entrapment

(d) Fuel/resource shortage

(e) Hazardous material spill or release

(f) Equipment failure

(g) Nuclear reactor incident

(h) Radiological incident

(i) Transportation incident

(j) Unavailability of essential employee(s)

(k) Water control structure failure

(l) Misinformation

(5) Intentional:

(a) Incendiary fire

(b) Bomb threat

(d) Discrimination/harassment

(e) Disinformation (rumors, false allegations, or accusations)

(f) Kidnapping/hostage/extortion

(g) Geopolitical risks including acts of war, change in government, and political

instability

(h) Missing person

(i) Cyber security incidents

(j) Product defect or contamination

(k) Robbery/theft/fraud

(l) Strike or labor dispute

(m) Suspicious package

(n) Terrorism

(o) Vandalism/sabotage

(p) Workplace/school/university violence

(q) Supply chain constraint or failure

(6) Technological:

(a) Hardware, software, and network connectivity interruption, disruption, or failure

(b) Utility interruption, disruption, or failure

(7) Economic/financial:

(a) Foreign currency exchange rate change

(b) Economic recession

(d) Theft/fraud/malfeasance/impropriety/scandal involving currency, monetary

instruments, goods, and intellectual property

(8) Strategic:

(a) Loss of senior executive

(b) Failed acquisition/strategic initiative

CAPTemplate1.docx

Crisis Action Plan

for

[provide name of organization]

Activation Instructions

[Describe the conditions under which this plan would be activated and who would be responsible and have the authority for the activation]

Table of Contents (Include page numbers)

1. Introduction

a. Mission

b. Purpose

c. Applicability

d. Policy

e. Objectives

f. Assumptions

g. Organization

2. Critical Organizational Functions

a. Staff protection

b. Direct production and processes

c. Support – logistics and personnel

3. Threat Forecast

a. Natural and Man-made Disasters

b. Product and Process Disasters

c. Fictitious Disasters

4. Pre-crisis Mitigation Actions

a. Physical Facility Protection

b. Product and Process Protection

c. Personnel Protection

d. Reputation and Goodwill Protection

5. Response Planning

a. Natural & Man-made Disasters

b. Product & Process Disasters

c. Fictitious Disasters

6. Teams & Authorities

a. Operations Team

b. Communications Team

c. Logistics Team

d. Information Technology Team

e. Administrative Team

7. Recovery and Restoration

a. Physical and facility restoration

b. Reputation and goodwill restoration

c. Emotional and psychological recovery

8. Appendices

a. Appendix A – Team Contact Information

b. Appendix B – Emergency Procedures

c. Appendix C – Team Assignments & Taskings

d. Appendix D – Plan Maintenance

e. Appendix E – Approvals

Introduction

[Give the mission of the organization; describe the purpose for the plan; explain under what circumstances it would be activated; explain how the plan will be used by the organization; depict the expected outcome of the plan activation; give the assumptions used in the development of the plan; and give an overview of the structure that will implement it.

NOTE: If the mission of your organization is emergency response, conducting your routine mission is not a crisis. A crisis is a situation in which you cannot conduct your routine mission. In other words, if the fire department responds to a fire, that may be a crisis to the customer, but not to the fire department. If the fire department hooks up their hose to a hydrant and nothing comes out, that's a crisis to the fire department and is the type of crisis that a plan needs to be written for. Don’t write a plan for accomplishment of your routine mission.]

Critical Organizational Functions

[Give the critical processes and products that must be maintained when operating in crisis mode. Describe what would cause the organization to fail that must be avoided.]

Threat Forecast

(Give an overview of the likely and not-so-likely threats that the organization could face. Include those from natural disasters; man-made disasters; global warming; and any that were generated from the threat forecasting exercise in the forums. You MUST acknowledge and accommodate those threats identified by your instructor and classmates in the forums. Be VERY specific and detailed. ‘My organizations faces a myriad of threats’ is not a threat forecast.

NOTE: A fictitious disaster is defined as something that someone else did or something that did not happen at all that your organization is blamed for. Examples include false newspaper stories. Fictitious disasters are typically handled by the Public Relations function.

ALSO NOTE: Use of the word ‘Zombie’ in this exercise will cause your plan to be returned for resubmission.)

Pre-Crisis Mitigation Actions

(Based upon the threat forecast, describe how your organization will plan to mitigate threats so they will never evolve into crises. Write a mitigation action for each identified threat.) Response Planning

[Describe how the organization would respond to different scenarios: natural and man-made disasters not of its making; product and process disasters of its own making; scenarios in which blame is leveled on the organization for issues it had nothing to do with. Be specific to every identified threat.]

Teams and Authorities

[List the contingency teams that will organize to respond to the crisis and the authority it will operate under. Many organizations form special teams to deal with special situations. If your organization is small and uses its routine organization for threat response, that’s fine.]

Recovery and Restoration

(Describe how your organization will recover once the crisis has past. Give a recovery plan for each threat, plus talk about how the organization as a whole will recover.) Appendices

Appendix A

[Give specific contact information of the individuals on your crisis action teams]

Appendix B

[Give detailed processes for implementing this plan – who, what, when, where, how]

Appendix C

[Give team taskings]

Appendix D

[Describe who and under what circumstances this plan will be maintained]

Appendix E

[Create an approval page for leadership to use in approving this plan]