discussion

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PAF 160: How to Survive the 21st Century Module 6 – Discussion Session

Systems Dynamics Perspective

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Interactive Session

Systems Dynamics Perspective

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Explore system dynamics by building chain- reaction scenarios from an initial emergency event (like a power outage or major storm), revealing how impacts cascade through different systems, create feedback loops, and demonstrate interconnected relationships between system components.

NOAA

Interactive Session

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Disaster Dominos: Practice your systems thinking!

• Pick ONE of these starter events: o A 24-hour power outage hits your city o 6 inches of rain falls in 2 hours for 2 days o A weeklong heat wave reaches 110°F o A major water main breaks downtown for a

large region

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Example Chain (Systems) Reaction

• Power outage → • Traffic lights stop working → • Major traffic jams form → • Emergency vehicles can't reach hospital → • Hospital must divert patients → • Neighboring hospitals become overwhelmed...

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Example Feedback Loop

• Hospital gets overwhelmed with patients → • staff become exhausted → • medical errors increase → • creates more patients → • hospital becomes more overwhelmed → • repeat

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Activity Questions

• What else could happen? • Who else would be affected? • What systems connect to this (communications,

supply chain, economics, human vulnerabilities)?

• What effects circle back to the original problem, making it worse (or better)?

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Questions to post on Yellowdig

• Identify a feedback loop from your system dynamics activity where effects circled back to amplify the original problem. How could individuals, our community, emergency managers, or others use this knowledge to better prepare?

• You hopefully found several connected systems (like power → transportation → healthcare). Pick one connection and explain why it might be a 'hidden dependency' that only becomes visible during disasters.

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- Complete your readings - Take your quiz - Submit your Yellowdig - See you next session!

Next Steps