BUSN660

100 words agree or disagree to each questions 

Q1.

“A decision tree analysis is a graphic representation of various alternative solutions that are available to solve a problem.” (What is a Decision tree Analysis?, 2020) When using a decision tree, a company can easily see the options and alternatives to problem or opportunity.  By easily being able to view all the information in an easy-to-follow flow chart it helps in the decision-making process.  This is a graphical “what if” diagram, and it allows a researcher to easily move from one alternative to another using these what if statements.  Statements like, what if alternative 1 fails, is too costly, or has too much risk?  Here is an example of a simple decision tree analysis in Smart art:

I have not used any of the excel tools in my work environment yet, but I hope to begin using them soon.  I have used Excel QM in another class, and I took some time earlier to pull up Smart art and play around with it a little.  I believe the QM is probably the more sophisticated model and it has more options for weighing choices, but as a beginner I like the simplicity of Smart art.  I think this will be my first choice to use in a real-world scenario.  Once I am more comfortable doing decision tree analysis, I might try QM and get more detailed.  For now, I like Smart art and its easy ability to add and move the bubbles, change colors, and the way it automatically changes font to fit the bubble.  It is a easy way to create a decision tree model.  I feel like with most things, personal preference will be a strong motivator in which tool to use to conduct your analysis.  As a matter of fact, we might all need to start with a decision tree analysis to determine which tool works best for us individually.  Just a thought.

References:

What is a decision Tree Analysis? Theory, example & template. (2020, December 11). Retrieved February 10, 2021, from https://www.toolshero.com/decision-making/decision-tree-analysis/#:~:text=Tree%20Analysis%20template.-,What%20is%20a%20Decision%20Tree%20Analysis%3F,decisive%20when%20making%20a%20choice.

Q2.

Decision trees are an important tool in the modeling process. They are an easily understandable model of a decision situation where decisions are made one after another, leading to a potentially high number of possible outcomes. A decision tree helps to represent the decision situation graphically and can also show the expected value of a decision, if the probabilities and monetary values are included in the decision tree (Bell & Zaric, 2012, pp. 51-67).

I have yet to use a decision tree at work. My current job as an infantry instructor does not provide me with such opportunities. Maybe future jobs will, especially if I work as a staff officer at a headquarters. I have yet to be exposed to such a work environment and I do not know for sure if decision trees will be useful in this setting.

I have yet to build a decision tree on Excel, be it for a course in this program or just in general. I know that Analytic Solver, an add-in for Excel by Frontline Solvers, offers a tool for creating decision trees. My understanding from playing with it is that it can make the creation of decision trees easier, with professional looking templates. I fail to see any drawbacks or issues, but my experience is rather limited, to say the least. From reading the textbook this week, I know that a model that looks good can facilitate its understanding by managers not well versed in analytics (Bell & Zaric, 2012, p. 27).

REFERENCE

Bell, P.C., & Zaric, G.S. (2012). Analytics for Managers with Excel. Taylor & Francis Group.