Business Finance - Operations Management FM Homework

JWI 531 Finance II Assignment 3Template

HOW TO USE THIS TEMPLATE:

This is a template and checklist corresponding to your Assignment 3 paper: Forecasting. See below for an explanation of the color-coding in this template:

• All green text includes instructions to support your writing. You should delete all green text before

submitting your final paper.

• All blue text indicates areas where you need to replace text with your own information. Replace the blue text with your own words in black.

• Headings and subheadings are written in black, bold type. Keep these in your paper.

TIPS:

• Write in the third person, using “he” or “she” or “they”, or using specific names. Do not use the second person “you”.

• The body of this paper has one-inch margins and uses a professional font (size 10-12); we recommend Arial or Times New Roman fonts.

• The Assignment template is already formatted with all needed specifications like margins, appropriate font, and double spacing.

• Before submitting your paper, use Grammarly to check for punctuation and usage errors and make the required corrections. Then read aloud to edit for tone and flow.

• You should also run your paper through SafeAssign to ensure that it meets the required standards for originality.

FINALIZING YOUR PAPER

Your submission should be a maximum of 4 pages in length. The page count does not include the Cover Page at the beginning and the References page at the end. The final paper that you submit for grading should be in black text only with all remaining green text and blue text removed.

�Assignment 3: Forecasting Author’s Name

Jack Welch Management Institute Professor’s Name

JWI 531 Date

�Introduction

An Introduction should be succinct and to the point. Start your Introduction with a general and brief observation about the paper’s topic. Write a thesis statement, which is the “road map” for your paper - it helps your reader to navigate your work. In your thesis statement, be specific about the major areas you plan to address in your paper.

The headings below should guide your introduction, since they identify the topics to be

addressed in your paper. The introduction is not a graded part of your rubric but it helps your reader to understand what your assignment will be about. We recommend that you write this part of your Introduction after you complete the other sections of your paper. It only needs to be one paragraph in

length.

Analysis and Recommendations

You must answer each of the following questions in your paper. Keep your responses focused on the topic. Straying off into additional areas, even if they are interesting, will not earn additional marks, and may actually detract from the clarity of your responses.

i. Which metrics/trends are most critical for forecasting future performance and for budgeting? To answer this, you must include an analysis of both past trend performance AND the applicability and reliability of key forecast indicators. In your response, consider:

a. Which company has the stronger income statement? Explain. b. Which company has the stronger cash flows? Explain. c. Which company has the stronger operating performance? Explain.

In developing your response, use the three sub-questions (a, b and c) to guide you. In fact, you may want to draft your answers for these questions before you write your opening. Your answer to the all three questions and your opening statement should take one or two paragraphs. Make sure that you explain your rationale for each of three questions. It is not enough to just name the company and move on.

ii. Why are the metrics/trends in the data sets above so critical? How reliable are they as

predictors of future performance?

For the second question, our focus is on the quality and usefulness of the data. Pay attention to

both parts of the question. Your response must address: (1) WHY these metrics/trend are particularly important to forecasting and budgeting – there is

little value in overanalyzing trivial metrics (2) How consistent the trends have been – generally speaking, the less variance in the trend,

the more reliable a predictor it is

Given that most companies have hundreds of data sets that could be analyzed, explain why

these particular data sets are the ones to focus on in forecasting. Be sure you include references to the analysts’ reports, the 10-Ks, and your course materials. Your answer should take two paragraphs.

iii. Based on the data you have analyzed, which metrics would you focus on to improve the performance of the weaker company against the stronger one? Why

a. How would you do this? What specific financial tools would you apply? Why? b. What would “realistic” improvement look like? c. How would you measure success?

As in previous assignments, the questions now shift from analysis to recommendation. Your

response will require a brief opening statement to explain what metrics you would focus on and why to improve the performance of the weaker company against the stronger one. Be sure that you stay focused on this. You do not have to develop a financial strategy for both companies, only the weaker one. Your answer should, therefore, briefly restate which company you believe has the weaker performance, and then respond to each of the three sub-bullets in relation to that company only. As guidance, see the tips for each question below:

a. Make sure you reference specific financial tools covered in the course and explain how you

would use them. Saying something like, “I would reduce operating expenses in order to increase cash flow” is far too vague to have any value as a strategy.

b. Do not make outrageous claims for improvement. You must justify how your actions can drive results. There must be a clear connection between the financial levers you can pull and the outcomes they will produce.

c. Finally, be clear on how you will define success. It may not always be about growth or profits.

It may be about protecting the company against a major setback. Make your success metrics as specific and measurable as you can.

iv. If you were given the opportunity to join either of these two companies as the new CFO, which one would you pick and why? In considering your answer to this question, the majority of your compensation plan will be tied to the improvements you can help to drive. Therefore, you should not base your decision on which company is currently performing better, but on which company’s performance – and valuation – has the greatest potential for growth.

Your answer to this question should take a short paragraph of 3 to 4 sentences. Stay focused

on the core question – which is improvement. It is fine to pick either company. There is no right or wrong answer here, but you must be clear about which company you would choose and explain why this is the one you could have the greatest impact on.

�References

Use the information below to format your in-text citations correctly. Note how the source number connects each citation with the References list on the last page of your paper.

For more citation examples and a sample References page, see the Sample Professional Paper and the JWMI Writing Standards Guide. You can find both these documents in the Course Documents menu item in your Blackboard course.

In-Text Citations Within the body of your paper, when concepts from specific sources are used, a citation with the author’s last name and the number of the citation in your References list is required: e.g., (Welch, 1). This is called an in-text citation. See below for two examples:

“Leadership is about helping other people grow and succeed” (Welch, 1).

In this example, notice the placement of quotation marks, cited text, and the period after the citation. The number 1 corresponds to the first entry on your References page.

When the reader looks at the References page, they should see the Welch book Winning listed as source number one (1). It is number 1 because it is the first source used in the paper, and throughout the paper this source will continue to be referred to as (1).

If the next source you use in your paper is Bragg, then your citation is (Bragg, 2). If you then refer to Jack’s ideas again later in the paper, he remains (Welch, 1) because it is the first source used in the paper, and throughout the paper this source will continue to be referred to as (1).

Linking Citations with your References Page

At the end of your paper, include a page with a list of all your references. It must include an entry for every source that you have cited or quoted in your paper.

The format of the references list varies by source type. There are examples of different source types in the sample References page at the end of this document. You may also refer to the Sample Professional Paper and/or the JWMI Writing Standards Guide. You can find both these documents in the Course Documents menu item in your Blackboard course.

Quotations

Originality is an important aspect of graduate writing. To ensure original thinking and avoid plagiarism, you should keep direct quotation to a minimum. Generally, keep your quotes to 25 words or less, and no more than 1-2 sentences. See below for an example of a direct quotation:

“Leadership is about helping other people grow and succeed” (Welch, 1).

In this example, notice the placement of quotation marks, cited text, and the period after the citation. The number 1 corresponds to the first entry on our References page.

Paraphrasing

When you paraphrase, you put the information from another writer in your own words. This is much preferable to quoting, as it shows your understanding of the material. In this case, you should use in-text citation, but quotation marks are not required. See below for an example of paraphrasing:

In his Rule 3, Welch says that strong leaders display an impression of vitality and confidence (1).

Since the author’s name was used in the sentence, we do not need to include it again in the parentheses, so we just provide the Reference number, which is (1).

JWI 531: Financial Management II Assignment 3

© Strayer University. All Rights Reserved. This document contains Strayer University confidential and proprietary information and may not be copied, further distributed, or otherwise disclosed, in whole or in part, without the expressed written permission of Strayer University. This document is subject to change based on the needs of the class. JWI 531 – Assignment 3 (1244) Page 1 of 3

Assignment 3: Forecasting Due: Monday, 9:00 am (eastern), Week 10 (18% of final grade)

In the first two assignments, you looked at: (1) how NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) are positioned to take advantage of opportunities and manage risks and (2) how well each is currently managing their performance. As part of this analysis, you identified potential areas for improvement and considered whether a merger or acquisition could strengthen their financial performance.

Based on your insights and recommendations, Buffett is now asking for an assessment of what the future holds for these businesses. In order to deliver this, you must be able to accurately forecast cash flows (the money that comes in and the money that goes out). Like any predictions about the future, these forecasts require the collection and analysis of reliable data, including leading indicators in the broader economy as well as the market forces that impact competitive dynamics. This analysis will enable you to make smarter decisions about how to plan for the future in order to maximize returns, minimize risks, and beat the competition.

Instructions For this assignment, you will continue to use the published data from the most recent annual reports you have been studying, as well as analyst reports and other resources available on the Internet.

A. Complete the Assignment 3 Worksheet to assemble and assess your forecasts of working capital. The guidance for this is found in Chapter 7 of The CFO Guidebook.

B. Summarize your Analysis and Recommendations by addressing the following questions:

i. Which metrics/trends are most critical for forecasting future performance and for budgeting?

To answer this, you must include an analysis of both past trend performance AND the applicability and reliability of key forecast indicators. In your response, consider:

a. Which company has the stronger income statement? Explain. b. Which company has the stronger cash flows? Explain. c. Which company has the stronger operating performance? Explain.

ii. Why are the metrics/trends in the data sets above so critical? How reliable are they as

predictors of future performance?

iii. Based on the data you have analyzed, which metrics would you focus on to improve the performance of the weaker company against the stronger one? Why?

a. How would you do this? What specific financial tools would you apply? Why? b. What would “realistic” improvement look like? c. How would you measure success?

JWI 531: Financial Management II Assignment 3

© Strayer University. All Rights Reserved. This document contains Strayer University confidential and proprietary information and may not be copied, further distributed, or otherwise disclosed, in whole or in part, without the expressed written permission of Strayer University. This document is subject to change based on the needs of the class. JWI 531 – Assignment 3 (1244) Page 2 of 3

iv. If you were given the opportunity to join either of these two companies as the new CFO, which one would you pick, and why? In considering your answer to this question, the majority of your compensation plan will be tied to the improvements you can help to drive. Therefore, you should not base your decision on which company is currently performing better but on which company's performance – and valuation – has the greatest potential for growth.

Submission Requirements

A. Complete and submit the Assignment 3 Worksheet component of the Workbook, along with your written work for Part B, through the assignment link in Canvas.

B. Format your written responses for Analysis and Recommendation as follows:

• Typed, double-spaced, professional font (size 10-12), including headings and subheadings (to identify main topics and subtopics), with one-inch margins on all sides.

• References must be included and provide appropriate information that enables the reader to locate the original source.

o Application and analysis of course materials and resources is expected. o At least one additional source beyond the course materials must be cited to support

your analysis and recommendations. • Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, your name, the professor’s name,

the course title, and the date. • The maximum length is 4 pages, excluding your cover page, completed worksheets, and

reference list.

JWI 531: Financial Management II Assignment 3

© Strayer University. All Rights Reserved. This document contains Strayer University confidential and proprietary information and may not be copied, further distributed, or otherwise disclosed, in whole or in part, without the expressed written permission of Strayer University. This document is subject to change based on the needs of the class. JWI 531 – Assignment 3 (1244) Page 3 of 3

RUBRIC

Weight: 18% of Course Grade

Assignment 3: Forecasting

CRITERIA Honors High Pass Pass Low Pass Unsatisfactory 1. Complete the

assignment worksheet Weight: 30%

Submitted worksheet had 90% or higher correct data sets.

Submitted worksheet had between 80% and 89% correct data sets.

Submitted worksheet had between 70% and 79% correct data sets.

Submitted worksheet had between 60% and 69% correct data sets.

Did not submit worksheet or had fewer than 60% correct data sets entered.

2. Present synopsis of data Weight: 30%

Data synopsis was excellent; accurately highlighted key data presented in both annual reports and third-party sources.

Synopsis was very good; focused on the most critical elements with only minor elements unclear/missing.

Synopsis was good; provided general snapshot of key data, but did not focus on the most critical elements.

Synopsis was overly simplistic; restated the data, but did not provide a coherent overview.

Synopsis was missing, incomplete, inaccurate, or did not align with data.

3. Present and defend sound recommended finance strategies Weight: 30%

Presented and defended excellent finance strategies; exemplary connection to core finance principles and to real-world circumstances. Excellent consideration of viable options with very clear rationale for why options were not chosen.

Presented and defended very good finance strategies; solid connection to core finance principles and to real-world circumstances. Very good consideration of viable options with good rationale for why options were not chosen.

Recommended strategies were good, but lacked clarity on how they could be implemented to drive outcomes. Addressed other options, but was unclear why these were not chosen.

Recommended strategies were basic or were not supported by data and analysis or tied to desired outcomes. Made minimal reference to options, but did not explain why these were not recommended.

Recommended strategies were missing, superficial, and/or were not supported by data and analysis. No options were presented.

4. Include appropriate citations and use professional writing standards Weight: 10%

Citations and references to both course materials and additional sources were properly documented; free from grammatical and formatting errors; adhered to maximum length.

Citations and references to both course materials and additional sources were properly documented; contained minor grammatical and formatting errors.

Citations and references to both course materials and additional sources were properly documented; contained some grammatical and formatting errors.

Included some citations and references to course materials, but failed to cite for several key references; contained distracting grammatical or formatting errors.

No citations provided and/or references to course materials were missing or did not support key content in submission; numerous writing mistakes.

JWI 531 Finance II Assignment 3Template

HOW TO USE THIS TEMPLATE:

This is a template and checklist corresponding to your Assignment 3 paper: Forecasting. See below for an explanation of the color-coding in this template:

• All green text includes instructions to support your writing. You should delete all green text before

submitting your final paper.

• All blue text indicates areas where you need to replace text with your own information. Replace the blue text with your own words in black.

• Headings and subheadings are written in black, bold type. Keep these in your paper.

TIPS:

• Write in the third person, using “he” or “she” or “they”, or using specific names. Do not use the second person “you”.

• The body of this paper has one-inch margins and uses a professional font (size 10-12); we recommend Arial or Times New Roman fonts.

• The Assignment template is already formatted with all needed specifications like margins, appropriate font, and double spacing.

• Before submitting your paper, use Grammarly to check for punctuation and usage errors and make the required corrections. Then read aloud to edit for tone and flow.

• You should also run your paper through SafeAssign to ensure that it meets the required standards for originality.

FINALIZING YOUR PAPER

Your submission should be a maximum of 4 pages in length. The page count does not include the Cover Page at the beginning and the References page at the end. The final paper that you submit for grading should be in black text only with all remaining green text and blue text removed.

�Assignment 3: Forecasting Author’s Name

Jack Welch Management Institute Professor’s Name

JWI 531 Date

�Introduction

An Introduction should be succinct and to the point. Start your Introduction with a general and brief observation about the paper’s topic. Write a thesis statement, which is the “road map” for your paper - it helps your reader to navigate your work. In your thesis statement, be specific about the major areas you plan to address in your paper.

The headings below should guide your introduction, since they identify the topics to be

addressed in your paper. The introduction is not a graded part of your rubric but it helps your reader to understand what your assignment will be about. We recommend that you write this part of your Introduction after you complete the other sections of your paper. It only needs to be one paragraph in

length.

Analysis and Recommendations

You must answer each of the following questions in your paper. Keep your responses focused on the topic. Straying off into additional areas, even if they are interesting, will not earn additional marks, and may actually detract from the clarity of your responses.

i. Which metrics/trends are most critical for forecasting future performance and for budgeting? To answer this, you must include an analysis of both past trend performance AND the applicability and reliability of key forecast indicators. In your response, consider:

a. Which company has the stronger income statement? Explain. b. Which company has the stronger cash flows? Explain. c. Which company has the stronger operating performance? Explain.

In developing your response, use the three sub-questions (a, b and c) to guide you. In fact, you may want to draft your answers for these questions before you write your opening. Your answer to the all three questions and your opening statement should take one or two paragraphs. Make sure that you explain your rationale for each of three questions. It is not enough to just name the company and move on.

ii. Why are the metrics/trends in the data sets above so critical? How reliable are they as

predictors of future performance?

For the second question, our focus is on the quality and usefulness of the data. Pay attention to

both parts of the question. Your response must address: (1) WHY these metrics/trend are particularly important to forecasting and budgeting – there is

little value in overanalyzing trivial metrics (2) How consistent the trends have been – generally speaking, the less variance in the trend,

the more reliable a predictor it is

Given that most companies have hundreds of data sets that could be analyzed, explain why

these particular data sets are the ones to focus on in forecasting. Be sure you include references to the analysts’ reports, the 10-Ks, and your course materials. Your answer should take two paragraphs.

iii. Based on the data you have analyzed, which metrics would you focus on to improve the performance of the weaker company against the stronger one? Why

a. How would you do this? What specific financial tools would you apply? Why? b. What would “realistic” improvement look like? c. How would you measure success?

As in previous assignments, the questions now shift from analysis to recommendation. Your

response will require a brief opening statement to explain what metrics you would focus on and why to improve the performance of the weaker company against the stronger one. Be sure that you stay focused on this. You do not have to develop a financial strategy for both companies, only the weaker one. Your answer should, therefore, briefly restate which company you believe has the weaker performance, and then respond to each of the three sub-bullets in relation to that company only. As guidance, see the tips for each question below:

a. Make sure you reference specific financial tools covered in the course and explain how you

would use them. Saying something like, “I would reduce operating expenses in order to increase cash flow” is far too vague to have any value as a strategy.

b. Do not make outrageous claims for improvement. You must justify how your actions can drive results. There must be a clear connection between the financial levers you can pull and the outcomes they will produce.

c. Finally, be clear on how you will define success. It may not always be about growth or profits.

It may be about protecting the company against a major setback. Make your success metrics as specific and measurable as you can.

iv. If you were given the opportunity to join either of these two companies as the new CFO, which one would you pick and why? In considering your answer to this question, the majority of your compensation plan will be tied to the improvements you can help to drive. Therefore, you should not base your decision on which company is currently performing better, but on which company’s performance – and valuation – has the greatest potential for growth.

Your answer to this question should take a short paragraph of 3 to 4 sentences. Stay focused

on the core question – which is improvement. It is fine to pick either company. There is no right or wrong answer here, but you must be clear about which company you would choose and explain why this is the one you could have the greatest impact on.

�References

Use the information below to format your in-text citations correctly. Note how the source number connects each citation with the References list on the last page of your paper.

For more citation examples and a sample References page, see the Sample Professional Paper and the JWMI Writing Standards Guide. You can find both these documents in the Course Documents menu item in your Blackboard course.

In-Text Citations Within the body of your paper, when concepts from specific sources are used, a citation with the author’s last name and the number of the citation in your References list is required: e.g., (Welch, 1). This is called an in-text citation. See below for two examples:

“Leadership is about helping other people grow and succeed” (Welch, 1).

In this example, notice the placement of quotation marks, cited text, and the period after the citation. The number 1 corresponds to the first entry on your References page.

When the reader looks at the References page, they should see the Welch book Winning listed as source number one (1). It is number 1 because it is the first source used in the paper, and throughout the paper this source will continue to be referred to as (1).

If the next source you use in your paper is Bragg, then your citation is (Bragg, 2). If you then refer to Jack’s ideas again later in the paper, he remains (Welch, 1) because it is the first source used in the paper, and throughout the paper this source will continue to be referred to as (1).

Linking Citations with your References Page

At the end of your paper, include a page with a list of all your references. It must include an entry for every source that you have cited or quoted in your paper.

The format of the references list varies by source type. There are examples of different source types in the sample References page at the end of this document. You may also refer to the Sample Professional Paper and/or the JWMI Writing Standards Guide. You can find both these documents in the Course Documents menu item in your Blackboard course.

Quotations

Originality is an important aspect of graduate writing. To ensure original thinking and avoid plagiarism, you should keep direct quotation to a minimum. Generally, keep your quotes to 25 words or less, and no more than 1-2 sentences. See below for an example of a direct quotation:

“Leadership is about helping other people grow and succeed” (Welch, 1).

In this example, notice the placement of quotation marks, cited text, and the period after the citation. The number 1 corresponds to the first entry on our References page.

Paraphrasing

When you paraphrase, you put the information from another writer in your own words. This is much preferable to quoting, as it shows your understanding of the material. In this case, you should use in-text citation, but quotation marks are not required. See below for an example of paraphrasing:

In his Rule 3, Welch says that strong leaders display an impression of vitality and confidence (1).

Since the author’s name was used in the sentence, we do not need to include it again in the parentheses, so we just provide the Reference number, which is (1).