business ana
shanta75will need toight if possible
a year ago
20
files (2)project_description.docx
BUSA511_individual_project_template1.docx
project_description.docx
BUSA511_individual_project_template1.docx
BUSA 511: Project Assignment cover page
Assignment for Course: BUSA 511: Business Analytics for Managers
Submitted to: Dr. Syed A. Raza
Submitted by:
|
Student Name |
CWID |
|
|
|
:
Title of Assignment: Time Series Forecasting Group Project
CERTIFICATION OF AUTHORSHIP: I certify that I am the author of this paper and that any assistance received in its preparation is fully acknowledge and disclosed in the paper. I have also cited any sources from which we used data, ideas of words, whether quoted directly or paraphrased. I also certify that this paper was prepared by me specifically for this course
*******************************************
Time Series Forecasting Project Instructions
Instructions
This is an individual assignment and therefore must be completed by an individual student without outside assistance of any type. Follow the instructions below in order to complete the assignment:
· Step 1: Download and read the project statement for the on the Forecasting problem stated in the Microsoft Word file “ project_description.docx”. Read carefully this document
· Step 2: Download the Excel file “ project_data.xlsx”. Use the data in the file to perform timeseries forecasting analyses.
· Step 3: Based on your analytics performed and use of the models in Step 2, answer the questions and provide a short ( not exceeding 500 words) recommendation/explanation
Submittals
1. Submit your answers to this assignment using this Microsoft Word document and post to the assignment drop box before the required deadline. Be sure to complete the above first page cover sheet. Enter your answers in the pages below to include all of your answers and results of your interpretations of calculations for the assignment questions. Your answers must be entered directly into this Word document below each question. Use as much space as needed.
2. Submit your Excel spreadsheet(s) with calculations/ visualizations to the assignment drop box before the required deadline. Your Excel model calculations will be used to substantiate your answers to the assignment questions herein.
Grading
Please answer following Question with reference to the project file: “ Project_description.docx”
Question 1 (6 points): Define a problem statement which reflects the challenge faced in this prediction problem ( Do not exceed 500 words )
Answer:
Question 2 (6 points): Develop a 3-period moving average forecasting model. Report the forecasts for year 6 from months January through December inclusive. Discuss briefly these forecasts ( Discussion NOT to exceed 500 words )
Answer:
Question 3 (6 points): Compute for the model developed in Question 2, compute the error parameters MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS. Explain these error computations ( Explanation NOT to exceed 500 words )
Answer:
Question 4 (6 points): Develop a simple exponential smoothing forecasting model, assume, =0.2. Report the forecasts for year 6 from months January through December inclusive. Discuss briefly these forecasts ( Discussion NOT to exceed 500 words)
Answer:
Question 5 (6 points): For the model developed in Question 4, compute the error parameters MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS.
Answer:
Question 6 (6 points): For the model developed in Question 4, using Excel Solver optimize the value of with and objective to minimize MSE. Report your results provide a discussion how optimization improved the forecasting error ( Discussion NOT to exceed 500 words)
Answer:
Question 7 (6 points): Develop a Holt’s model for forecasting, assume, =0.3, and =0.1. Report the forecasts for year 6 from months January through December inclusive. Discuss briefly these forecasts ( Discussion NOT to exceed 500 words)
Answer:
Question 8 (6 points): For the model developed in Question 7, compute the error parameters MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS.
Answer:
Question 9 (6 points): For the model developed in Question 7, using Excel Solver optimize the values of and with an objective to minimize MAD. Report your results provide a Discussion how optimization improved the forecasting error ( Discussion NOT to exceed 500 words)
Answer:
Question 10 (6 points): Develop a Winter’s model for forecasting, assume, =0.2, =0.3, and =0.1. Report the forecasts for year 6 from months January through December inclusive. Discuss briefly these forecasts ( Discussion NOT to exceed 500 words)
Answer:
Question 11 (6 points): For the model developed in Question 10, compute the error parameters MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS.
Answer:
Question 12 (6 points): For the model developed in Question 10, using Excel Solver optimize the values of , , and with an objective to minimize MAPE. Report your results provide a Discussion how optimization improved the forecasting error ( Discussion NOT to exceed 500 words)
Answer:
Question 13 (6 points): Discuss the model developed in Question 10 is how different from model developed in Question 7, ( Discussion NOT to exceed 500 words)
Answer:
Question 14 (22 points): Which model you will select and Why and how does the optimization improve the forecasting performance of the methods? ( 1 to 2-page discussion recommend)
1
image1.png
project_description.docx
- media example of causal OR statistical reasoning
- Countering Age-Related Stereotypes
- Plan for Creating an Inclusive Learning Community
- Another assignment due on Saturday
- DISCUSSION week 4
- Case Study 2: Data Breaches and Regulatory Requirements
- DECISION MODELING AND ANALYSIS
- Develop Concept Map for Applications
- Information technology ethics
- Public policy
