2 short discussion questions

 Describe a situation when a leader made a "bad" decision and it led to a good outcome. Why did the good outcome occur? What happened after that when the leader had more decisions to make? 

If you had a ticket to a chance drawing, with a 50% chance of receiving nothing and a 50% chance of receiving five million dollars, and you were offered two million dollars (assumed to be guaranteed) to surrender the ticket, would you agree to surrender the ticket? Why?