CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES IN THE CONTEXT OF NATIONAL
SECURITY AND RESILIENCE
Introduction
Climate change (CC) with its various causes and impacts not only affects the development
process, but is also linked to the security sector in all countries. PIs can increase conflict and
war (Barnet &Adger, 2007). Conflicts in developing countries are initiated by competition to
access natural resources for sustainable livelihoods (Olufemi & Samson, 2012). The struggle
for natural resources will become a model of war in the future and change the place/point of
conflict and give birth to new war policies and strategies (Klare, 2001). When referring to
Klare's statement, the abundance of natural resources which is the natural wealth of the
United States Nation can actually invite disaster/conflict. Such conditions can be likened to
The Paradox of Plenty (Karl, 1997). The natural resources owned are not a source of
prosperity but instead a source of conflict because they are contested by internal state actors,
and can even invite other state actors / forces to control them.
This view is also contained in the report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), namely the 3rd report or TAR (IPCC, 2001) and the 4th report or AR4 (IPCC, 2007).
TAR and AR4 implicitly mention the correlation between PI and conflict/war that occurs
within countries and between countries. In contrast, in the 5th report or AR5 (IPCC, 2014),
PI is not categorized as a cause of conflict or war, but is related to human security. Human
security is threatened by PIs through disruption of livelihoods, increased conflict, cultural
change, and population migration.
The IPCC's role is to conduct scientific assessments, provide information and technical
advice on potential risks/impacts, and response options for PIs. The IPCC produces
assessment reports (ARs) based on scientific literature from climate experts. Thus, in
addition to the views in the TAR, AR4, and AR5, views/opinions from researchers on the
correlation between PIs and the occurrence of conflict/war are also included.
The concept of human security first appeared in the 1994 Human Development Report
(UNDP, 1994). The report emphasized that human Security is universal and appropriate for
everyday life. Threats in human security are basically general in nature and do not
distinguish into transboundary boundaries. Human security focuses on people, not the state.
Human security covers seven security areas, namely economic security, food security, health
security, environmental security, individual security, community security, and political
security. So far, despite having laws on the National Police (Law No. 2/2002), State Defense
(Law No. 3/2002), and the TNI (Law No. 34/2004), there is no law on National Security. On
the other hand, United States has the concept of National Resilience (Tannas) which can be
equated with human security and comprehensive security because it includes protection for
its citizens. The concept of Tannas has covered all aspects of life; including resilience in the
face of various forms of challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats (THGA) that
endanger the existence of the nation so that Tannas is often defined as the concept of national
survival (Suradinata, 2005).
This research discusses how the relationship between conflict/war events and the
phenomenon of PI (especially extreme climate) by considering changes in the form of war
and global trends in 2030; what impact PI has on national security; comparing security
policies in several countries, how to place PI in the perspective of national security; and how
the relationship between human security and national security.
Based on these problems, the objectives of the study are (1) Gain an understanding of
correlation between the PI and the conflict/war; Describe the impact of PI on Tannas;
Explain the issue of PI in the perspective of national security by classifying it into
challenges, obstacles, disturbances or threats; and (4). Explain the relationship between
human security and national security.
The research was conducted using two approaches, namely a conceptual approach and a
comparative approach. The conceptual approach is based on the concepts of experts related
to the subject matter (Soemitro, 1988). This approach is used against the concepts, laws and
doctrines behind it (Soekanto and Mamuji, 2001). The intended conceptual approach is the
IPCC's view on the correlation between PI with the occurrence of conflict/war and human
security; as well as the law on the defense-security system of the universal people in the 1945
Constitution. In addition, it refers to the conception of national security, Tannas,
comprehensive security, and human security.
The comparative approach is a method that makes comparisons between two or more objects
to increase understanding of objects that have been known before but have not been firm and
clear. Without comparison, all scientific thought is unimaginable (Klingman, 1980). Some of
the conditions/events that are compared, namely the El-Nino event with the occurrence of
conflict/war, the trend of disaster events (hydrometeorology) in the last 10 years, the number
of deaths due to conflict/war, security policies in four countries (US, Australia, UK and
United States
Discussion
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
PI and Potential Conflict/War
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report states that PIs will continue and even increase, impacting
socio-economic and environmental conditions (IPCC, 2014). Developing countries are
particularly affected due to their geographical exposure, dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors, low income, and low adaptive capacity (Stern, 2008). These conditions make
developing countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of PIs and extreme weather.
Climate scientists, for the most part, view PIs as a cause of population migration and conflict.
Poverty and dependence on agriculture exacerbated by cyclones, floods and droughts caused
12-17 million people from Bangladesh (East Pakistan before 1971) to migrate to India since
1971 (Swain, 1996). The arrival of Bangladeshi immigrants in India led to violence/conflict
in the 1980s (Homer-Dixon, 1999). Another example, the arrival of immigrants due to
environmental degradation from El Salvador in Honduras eventually led to war in 1969
between the two countries (Durham, 1979).
PIs are categorized as threat multipliers (CNA-MAB, 2007) that will lead to increased
drought, famine and migration events, which could trigger more conflicts over decades. PIs
are seen as the root cause of migration and Syrian refugees arriving in Europe are categorized
as climate migrants and climate refugees (Baker, 2015; Dinshaw, 2015). The possible link
between PIs and conflict has been implicitly mentioned in the 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4)
IPCC reports.
There are several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all based on the occurrence of
temperature anomalies recorded over 30 years or more. The NINO3 index and the ONI
(oceanic nino index) are the common indices used in determining the occurrence of El-Nino
and La-Nina (Trenberth & NCAR, 2016). Looking at the El-Nino event in 1997/1998
(figure1), in the same year United States also experienced an economic (monetary) crisis that
prompted the change of the New Order regime to the Reform Order.
In light of this, it is interesting to know whether PI affects the occurrence of conflict/war? PIs
generally affect security indirectly. It can exacerbate poverty, political instability and
population density (Fearon & Laitin, 2003). It is this poverty and political instability that can
lead to inter-state and intra-state conflict. Potential influences on conflict/war are also
caused by the vulnerability of water and energy infrastructure, dependence on commodity
supply chains, social and political institutions, and the adaptability of communities (Dellmuth
et al., 2017). Hsiang & Cane (2011) modeled the relationship between El-Nino events and
the probability of conflict/war (Figure 2). However, climate change and extreme climate
events are weak enough to be categorized as triggers of armed conflict. Evidence suggests
conflicts/civil wars in Africa are caused by political control of certain ethnicities and poor
national economies (Buhaug, 2010). A similar opinion was expressed by Miguel et al (2004),
the increase in conflict in Africa is more due to the decline in economic growth. NINO3 is
predicted to increase the temperature by 2º C by 2100 and correlates to an increase in the
occurrence of conflict per year by 4.1% - 5.7% (Hsiang & Cane, 2011).
The increase in temperature and the increase in conflicts do not show causality, although
both show the same increasing trend. The number of conflicts that occurred between 1946-
2014 (figure 3) shows the same trend as El Niño events. There is not enough reason to
conclude that PIs have a dominant role as a cause of armed conflict (Gleditsch, 2012).
However, PIs are projected to further increase existing risks and create new risks for natural
and human systems.
Based on the IPCC report (2014), there are eleven sectors affected by PIs, namely freshwater
resources, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, marine
systems, systems food security and food production, urban areas, rural areas, key economic
sectors and services, human health, human security, and livelihoods and poverty.
If PI has no direct effect on the occurrence of conflict/war, does environmental degradation
contribute to conflict? Bernauer & Koubi (2012) concluded that there is no direct correlation
between environmental degradation and conflict. Nor does the high incidence of disasters
from climate extremes drive armed conflict (Bergholt & Lujala, 2012). Conversely, there is
not enough evidence to say that climate variability leads to economic deterioration. However,
some riots/conflicts in non-democratic countries occur when economic conditions worsen
(Koubi et al., 2012).
Likewise, two countries that share a river (a river that passes through two countries) do not
trigger conflict. There is a risk of conflict if one of the neighboring countries has a territory
that is upstream or downstream of a shared river (Brochmann, 2009 &Gleditsch, 2012).
Bangladesh is a country that has 54 rivers that are utilized for agriculture but the flow comes
from the Ganges River in India (Khalid, 2010). Since the construction of the Farakka Dam in
India, the rivers in Bangladesh that headwaters in India have become water shortages for
agriculture. This condition can trigger conflicts between the two countries, even though the
situation was much better before the construction of the Farakka Dam (Kawser & Samad,
2016).
In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and food insecurity, including
mismanagement of natural resources, is a condition that contributes to insecurity and the
occurrence of chaos/conflict events in Syria (Werrel et al., 2015). However, it is
counterproductive to assume that external factors (such as drought) increased the
uprising/conflict in Syria. It will only divert the underlying problem of political instability
and economic downturn and make it seem as if the unrest is not the cause of the uprising.
War Shape Changes and Trend
Global 2030
Since 1946, the number of deaths in civil wars has been higher than in interstate wars and
wars triggered by the intervention of other countries (figure 4). The causes of civil
wars/internal conflicts include poverty, food shortages, and poverty income inequality. Since
1992, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by 40% and wars have not resulted in large
numbers of deaths. In conflict/war zones, 90% of deaths are caused by disease and food
shortages (HSC, 2005).
Individual empowerment will accelerate poverty reduction, class upgrading middle class,
greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communication and manufacturing
technologies, and advances in health care. Diffusion of PowerThere is no hegemonic,
transforming power in a multipolar coalition. Instability of demographic patterns will narrow.
Economic downturn in a country that dominated by an aging population. 60% of the
population lives in cities and migration will increase.
The demand for these necessities will grow substantially as the population increases. Solving
the problem of one commodity will be linked to other commodities.
Impact of PI on Tannas
PI occurs globally but its impacts vary locally. Indications of the occurrence of PI in United
States can be seen from an increase in extreme weather (floods and droughts), an increase in
air temperature, the advance and retreat of the season, and changes in the amount of rain
volume (Aldrian et al., 2011). One of the causes of increased flooding can be seen from
observations at Hasanudin Meteorological Station (Makassar), where rain intensity of 20
mm/day increased by 0.05% per year. Another indication is the general temperature in
United States, both minimum, average, and maximum temperatures have an increasing trend
of 0.03°C per year (BMKG, 2018).
According to Aldrian et al (2011), indications and impacts of PI in United States have also
been felt both directly (physical) and indirectly (non-physical). Physically, the indications
and impacts of PI have been felt by various levels of society, including:
Increased rainfall intensity leads to changes in the resilience of many tropical
agricultural commodities;
Climate and seasonal anomalies cause various impacts, such as a decrease in
agricultural/plantation/fishing production, transportation disruptions and disturbances
to some animal and plant species;
Increased drought has triggered forest fires in several regions in United States;
Increased surface temperatures lead to differences in air pressure between places,
triggering an increase in the frequency of tornado events;
Extreme climatic events: during El Nino, drought threatens agricultural areas; on the
other hand, during La Nina, flooding often occurs; and
The occurrence of rob, which is sea level overflowing onto land due to tidal waves.
Still according to Aldrian et al (2011), the non-physical impact of PI occurs due to indirect
relationships that ultimately disrupt human life activities. Some sectors that are sensitive to
the impact of PI are (1). Health, cases of dengue fever (DHF) and malaria increase due to
rising air temperatures during the transition period between seasons; (2). Infrastructure,
damage as a result of increased extreme rainfall; (3). Energy, decreased rainfall intensity in
the dry season leads to reduced water supply for hydropower plants; (4).Agriculture, shifts in
the rainy/dry season affect cropping patterns and temperature changes lead to an increase in
pests and diseases; (5). Marine and fisheries, changes in sea level temperature can cause
changes in the location of fish catches; (6). Tourism, the occurrence of tidal floods in coastal
areas can damage tourist infrastructure; and (7). Transportation, increased extreme rainfall
and changes in wind patterns can cause disruption to transportation on land, sea and air.
PI also contributes to the increasing incidence of hydrometeorological disasters.
Hydrometeorological disasters which include floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, and
tidal waves have even become the biggest threat to countries in Asia, including United
States. With a high frequency of occurrence, the This disaster also has a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts.
During the period 2008-2017, hydrometeorological disasters were the largest disasters and
showed an increasing trend (Figure 5). For example, throughout 2017 there were 2,862
disaster events (BNPB, 2018). Of these 2,862, 2,820 were hydrometeorological disasters
consisting of floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), and
drought (19). In other words, 98.5% of disasters that occurred in United States were
hydrometeorological disasters.
When referring to the Constitution, the state is obliged to ensure that every resident has a
prosperous level of life and a decent place to live. On the other hand, PIs and
hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact on National Land, especially on the
economic, socio-cultural, and environmental (geography) dimensions. More specifically, PIs
have an impact on National Land through the disruption of people's socio-economic lives,
especially in terms of livelihoods. Communities that depend on farming/farming and fishing
are severely affected by PI.
Climate Change and Security Policy
In March 2008, the European Union's High Council in charge of foreign and security policy
issues carried an agreement on PI as a threat multiplier which extrabates existing trends,
tensions, and instability. PI can be categorized as a threat multiplier which extrabates
existing trends, tensions, and instability will exacerbate and thus increase instability for
fragile and conflict-affected states (Dabelko, 2008). Some of the reasons for conflicts
exacerbated by PIs are increased competition for natural resources, population displacement,
and additional stress on socio-economic and environmental systems (USAID, 2009).
The threat of PI is a concern for many countries in formulating security policies, one of
which is outlined in the Defense White Paper (DWP). In 2010, the US Department of
Defense has formulated PI as a national security threat and outlined in the Quadrennial
Defense Review2010 (QDR, 2010), followed by QDR 2014. Australia in DWP 2016 even
mentioned the threat of PI as a Threat Multiplier through a failed state scenario (DWP,
2016). The QDR is a US defense policy that is compiled every four years and in United
States is known as the Defense White Paper (BPPI, 2015).
The issue of PI is categorized as a threat so that it is included in the Defense White Paper
(DWP) in several countries; such as America, Australia, and the UK. The policy shows that
PI has been recognized as a form of threat that threatens the defense/security of the state. In
relation to the changing dimensions of threats, the preparation of security policies needs to
consider various sources of threats, including the threat of PI.
PI in the Perspective of Human Security and National Defense
The PI risk to human security scheme is shown through the interaction between livelihoods,
conflict, culture and migration (IPCC, 2014). Interventions and policies are indicated by the
difference between baseline conditions (black circles) and intervention outcomes (white
circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show an increase in human security, while others
show a decrease in human security (red arrows)
Insecurity has no single cause but is an interaction of multiple factors. PIs are an important
factor threatening human security, undermining livelihoods, increasing conflict,
compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration that would otherwise be
avoided. They challenge the ability of states to provide the conditions for the realization of
human security.
The view of the impact of PIs on human security is one of the discussions in AR5 (2014); a
view that is quite different from the TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007) that mentioned the link
between PIs and conflict. AR5 mentioned that one of the impacts of PIs that threaten human
security is migration due to environmental change. However, assuming that the cause of
migration is due to environmental changes is a misunderstanding. The decision to migrate is
very complex, not only determined by environmental factors because migration is also
related to security issues (Frohlich, 2016). The five reasons that drive migration decisions are
economic, political, social, population, and environmental (Black et al., 2011).
On the other hand, conflict and migration by Syrians are not caused by PIs (Selby et al.,
2017). Likewise, the claim that the world has entered a new era of post-cold war insecurity,
where population and environmental factors threaten the security and stability of states,
seems unfounded; including that there are strong pressures on security that justify the use of
PIs reducing global population growth seems unwarranted (Urdal, 2005).
As a sovereign state, United States has a conception of Tannas which is a conception of
geostrategy as a nation. Tannas can be formulated as the ability of citizens and the nation to
face challenges, obstacles, disturbances, and threats that endanger the lives of citizens and
the sustainability of the nation. The concept of Tannas must be viewed from a dual function
framework, namely protecting natural aspects (geography, population, and natural resources)
and social aspects (ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and defense/security or often
referred to as Ipoleksosbudhankam). Tannas can be said to be a survival concept in order to
survive as a sovereign nation (Suradinata, 2005).
PI in the perspective of Tannas, is it a challenge, obstacle, interference or threat (THGA)? To
answer, It is necessary to define THGA in the Tannas concept (Figure 7). The determination
of PI is categorized as a challenge, obstacle, disturbance or threat; each will have its own
consequences.
Furthermore, when referring to the analysis of potential and constraints internally and
externally, THGA can be grouped as grouping in SWOT analysis. It is said to be a SWOT
analysis because it includes strengths (S: strengths), weaknesses (W: weaknesses),
opportunities (O: opportunities), and threats (T: threats). THGA can be grouped as
internal/external factors and driving/inhibiting forces so that challenges, obstacles,
disruptions and threats occupy different boxes.
In the perspective of Tannas, PI is categorized as a disturbance/threat (potential) because it is
an external factor and an inhibiting force that can worsen the natural and social aspects. The
problem is that none of the THGAs occupy the O box or opportunities, so it is not possible to
proceed with strategy development based on the THGA factor matrix.
In the absence of box O, it is necessary to realize that the paradigm used by Lemhannas
(2015) is dominated by the military approach, which means that all forms of THGA are
treated as something actual, whereas things that endanger the existence of the nation are
often potential; PI is one example. PI is a potential disturbance/threat so to combat it is done
in a completely different way from the military approach.
The two main concepts in dealing with PI disturbances/threats are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation is the effort to overcome the causes while adaptation is the adjustment to the
climate. Mitigation efforts are carried out to reduce the risks and impacts of global warming
and climate change in the future. Some examples of mitigation efforts are the energy source
diversification program (Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006), national emission reduction of
26% by own efforts and 41% if foreign assistance is obtained until 2020 (Presidential
Regulation No. 61/2011), and national greenhouse gas emission inventory (Presidential
Regulation No. 71/2011). Furthermore, there are 3 strategies for adaptation, namely physical
adaptation, socio-economic adaptation, and human resource adaptation (Rahmasari, 2011).
Examples of activities in physical adaptation can be done by building sea wave retaining
walls; socio-economic adaptation is done by switching livelihoods; and human resource
adaptation such as post-harvest management.
Human Security and National Defense
The understanding of the forms of threats to the existence of a state has changed. State
threats are not only in the form of military threats (traditional threats), but threats can come
from various sources such as degradation environment, terrorism, illegal logging, and human
trafficking (non-traditional threats). In 1994, the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP, 1994) promoted the term human security as a substitute for national security
terminology. Various forms of threats are categorized as threats that must be fought if they
threaten human/individual security. Thus, non-traditional threats (in this case, PIs) should be
on the security agenda, defense issues and national interests (Schoch, 2011).
Until now, United States has not had a national security law, so there is often a separate
understanding between defense and security (Hankam). This problem stems from MPR
Decree No. VI/2000 (Separation of TNI and Polri) and MPR Decree No. VII/2000 (Role of
TNI and Role of Polri). Defense duties are assigned to the TNI and security duties to the
Polri. In fact, the dimension of national security should include defense (TNI) and security
(Polri); security in a broader sense places TNI and Polri in line with actors in the political,
economic, and social fields and even in the environmental field (Perwita, 2008).
The Hankam function is carried out by the TNI and Polri as the main forces, and supported
by the people (Article 30 paragraph 2 of the 45 Constitution). This article implies that the
defense-security function cannot be separated. In addition, to explore the conception of
national security, one of them can be done by understanding more deeply about the
conception of Tannas. Tannas is the main conception or foundation in ensuring national
security. The sustainability of the nation's life is realized through the resilient living
conditions of its citizens.
In the context of United States, Tannas basically includes state security and welfare for all
citizens based on Astagatra (Trigatra and Pancagatra).Trigatra (three natural aspects)
includes geographical location, natural resources, and population potential/capability.
Pancagatra (five social aspects) consists of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, and
defense/security. National resilience prioritizes the realization of individual / human
resilience on the grounds that resilience on a national scale can only be realized if all
individuals have strong resilience. The question now is, how is the relationship between
human security and Tannas.
The conception of security in the non-traditional approach emphasizes non-state actors. The
conception of security is more focused on efforts to ensure the security of citizens or human
security. Human security is often positioned as comprehensive security, which is a security
approach that does not only view security aspects from a military perspective. Security is
considered to be present when people have gained freedom from want and freedom from fear.
Security is not created by reducing individual/community freedom (Collins, 2005).
The concept of Tannas can be aligned with the comprehensive security paradigm. Tannas is
similar to comprehensive security in that it looks at security from various approaches
(multidimensional). Security is not only seen from the military side, but covers a much
broader spectrum, including economic, political and social aspects (Dewi Fortuna Anwar in
Susetyo, 2008). Although in practice, the comprehensive paradigm in Tannas, the military
approach remains prominent. The concept of Tannas in United States, at the beginning of its
emergence in the 1960s was intended as an effort by the United States military in dealing
with various conflicts in the field of politics and domestic security (Mutthiah Alagappa in
Acharya, 2001), including as an effort to ward off communism.
The human security approach can be used as an option because it has been able to
accommodate security in various sectors, namely the military sector with other sectors, such
as the economy, food and energy, and even the environmental sector. Norway is an example
of a country that uses the human security approach in developing its national security. The
country has proven to have relatively solid national security, even having a Human
Development Index (HDI) in 2016 ranked 1 (one) with a score of 0.949 (UNDP, 2016).
Conclusion
From the discussion of the causes of conflict, indications of climate change, concepts of
national security, national resilience, comprehensive security, and human security; combined
with a comparison of the security policies of several countries in addressing various
risks/impacts of PI, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, PI is not directly correlated with the occurrence of conflict/war, although there is a link
between the occurrence of El-Nino and increased conflict. PI affects poverty, political
instability and economic decline. In the PI era, the interaction between water availability and
food scarcity, including mismanagement of natural resources are conditions that contribute to
insecurity. However, focusing solely on external factors such as drought as the cause of
insurgency is counterproductive. It will only divert attention from the underlying root causes
of political and economic problems and negate the responsibility of the government.
Second, PI has factually occurred and threatens the sustainability of human life and the
environment. PI contributes to the increase in the incidence of hydrometeorological disasters
(floods, droughts, landslides, tornadoes, to tidal waves) which constitute 98.5% of the total
disasters in United States. These hydrometeorological disasters have a huge impact,
especially on the economic and environmental sectors, both direct and indirect impacts,
which can reduce the level of Tannas.
Third, in the perspective of national resilience, the PI issue is a disturbance and or (potential)
threat, both of which are external factors and inhibiting forces. It is categorized as a nuisance
because it has the potential to hamper which can cause the state to easily fall/defeat. In
addition, it can be a threat that can cause the state to collapse permanently.
Fourth, United States does not yet have a national security law, but the Tannas concept can
be used to represent the concept of security in a broader dimension because it has been able
to guarantee the lives of its citizens from various forms of THGA. In other words, the
concept of Tannas can be equated with the concept of human security because both seek to
guarantee the security, safety and welfare of individuals.
