INDONESIAN GARLIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODEL: A
DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS APPROACH
Introduction:
Garlic is one of the strategic food commodities targeted for self-sufficiency in the
Ministry of Agriculture's Strategic Plan 2015-2019. In 2019 the Ministry of Agriculture
targeted garlic self-sufficiency in 2021 (Pusdatin 2019). Furthermore, in 2020 the Ministry
of Agriculture again targeted self-sufficiency in garlic in Indonesia in 2024 (Balitbangtan
2020). This garlic self-sufficiency target aims to meet domestic consumption needs and to
save foreign exchange reserves (Harinta and Basuki 2018). In order to support national food
security, the government has also carried out food estate development, which also aims to
increase the planting area and garlic production. The development of food estates for
horticultural commodities including garlic is spread across several regions in Indonesia
including Temanggung and Wonosobo Districts with a total land area available for food
estates reaching 339 ha (MOA 2022a). Food estate locations for horticultural commodities
are also developed in North Sumatra Province, namely Humbang Hasundutan Regency
(Humbahas) with a total land area provided for food estate of 1000 ha (MOA 2021a). The
government has also issued Minister of Environment and Forestry Regulation number 24 of
2020 which regulates the provision of forest areas for food estate development.
Based on Figure 1, domestic garlic production in 2021 decreased by 45 percent
compared to the previous year with a total production of 45 thousand tons, while garlic
imports in Indonesia increased by 3 percent compared to the previous year with a total
import volume of 602 thousand tons. According to MOA (2022a), the decrease in garlic
production was due to a cut in the 2021 state budget allocation for garlic areas from 5000 ha
to 1586 ha. Nevertheless, from 2015 to 2021, the development of garlic production and
imports in Indonesia both experienced an increasing trend of 28 percent and 4 percent,
respectively.
According to Pusdatin (2019), the lack of land and the availability of superior garlic
seeds cause garlic production in Indonesia to remain low so that national needs cannot be
met from domestic production. To achieve garlic self-sufficiency, 73 thousand ha of planting
land is required, while based on the identification of suitable land for garlic planting, 600
thousand ha is available (Pusdatin 2019). Furthermore, based on Pusdatin (2020), to achieve
garlic self-sufficiency, Indonesia needs to have 60 thousand h a o f garlic land with
productivity reaching 10 tons/ha. Data on production, harvest area, productivity, and
household consumption levels of garlic in Indonesia are in Table 1.
Based on Table 1, the development of domestic garlic consumption in the period 2015
to 2021 experienced an increasing trend with an average increase of 1.4 percent per year. In
the period 2015 to 2021, garlic production in Indonesia experienced an increasing trend with
an average increase of 28 percent per year. Garlic harvest area also increased by 36 percent
per year. However, domestic garlic productivity experienced a downward trend with an
average decrease of 4 percent per year. Garlic consumption by the household sector in 2021
reached 506 thousand tons, an increase of 12 percent (55.57 thousand tons) from the
previous year. Most of the garlic consumption came from the household sector, amounting
to 91.89 percent of total garlic consumption (BPS 2022b). When compared to the harvest
areas and garlic production of garlic-producing countries such as China, India, and Korea,
domestic garlic harvest areas and production are still very far behind. Based on FAO (2021),
in 2020 the garlic harvest area in China was 829 thousand ha with a productivity of 25
tons/ha, while the garlic harvest area in India was 363 thousand ha with a productivity of 8
tons/ha, and the harvest area in Korea was 25 thousand ha with a productivity of 14 tons/ha.
The development of garlic prices at the consumer level in the period 2015 to 2021 has
increased with an average growth of 7.2 percent per year (MOA 2022c). In the same period,
the price of garlic at the producer level has also increased by 8.3 percent per year (BPS
2022c). This increase in the price of garlic can affect people's purchasing power because
garlic is one of the main staples needed by the community and has contributed to
considerable inflation in recent times (Pusdatin 2021; Yuliati and Hutajulu 2020; Ardiyanti
and Juliprijanto 2020). When there is a decrease in garlic stocks, people have to pay more to
buy these goods and this will reduce people's purchasing power. Therefore, in order to
maintain the stability of domestic garlic prices, the government continues to strive to prevent
garlic scarcity, one of which is by implementing an import policy so that people's purchasing
power is not disrupted (Pusdatin 2021).
Based on the proportion of import contributions to domestic garlic consumption needs,
85 percent of domestic garlic needs are still met through imports, and the rest are met from
domestic production (BPS 2022a). According to MOA (2019), the total demand for garlic in
Indonesia reaches 570 thousand tons per year. The high demand for garlic while domestic
production cannot meet these needs, has an impact on the high import of garlic in Indonesia.
Based on Trademap (2022), Indonesia is the largest garlic importing country in the world. In
Figure 2, it can be seen that Indonesia is the largest garlic importing country in the world
with the proportion of garlic imports reaching 26 percent, followed by Vietnam at 9
p e r c e n t , and Malaysia at 6 percent. Since 1996, 97 percent of imported garlic in
Indonesia comes from China, which is the largest garlic exporting country in the world.
According to Yonekura (2005), after the 1998 monetary crisis, free trade (trade
liberalization) was implemented, which made the import tariff of garlic reduced to 0 percent
from 60 percent before the crisis. The absence of tariff and non-tariff barriers that apply to
garlic imports has resulted in Indonesia's garlic imports increasing (Septiana et al. 2022). The
cheaper price of imported garlic and the easier imports to enter Indonesia resulted in garlic
farmers in Indonesia not being able to compete with imported garlic, which resulted in
farmers switching to imported garlic (Septiana et al. 2022) other more profitable
commodities (Sayaka et al. 2021). In addition, since 2005 Indonesia has also signed
cooperation with ACFTA (ASEAN-China Free Trade Area). This resulted in the
implementation of a garlic import tariff elimination policy, resulting in increased garlic
imports from China (Adila et al. 2022; Yovirizka and Haryanto 2020; Sakinah et al. 2019).
Indonesia's trade balance of horticultural products is in deficit because the number of
imports is much greater than exports (Nugroho et al. 2019). Garlic is one of the horticultural
commodities that experience this. The high dependence on food imports in Indonesia is one
of the factors behind the development of food estates. Various food self-sufficiency
programs that focus on increasing productivity have not been able to compensate for the
decline in production caused by the decrease in land area due to conversion of agricultural
land to non-agricultural land, which reaches more than 100 thousand ha per year (Sutawi
2020).
1.1 Problem Formulation
There has been an imbalance between domestic supply and demand for garlic which
has led to high imports of garlic in Indonesia (Shofiyah and Sugiarti 2020). The garlic
commodity experiences excess demand, which is indicated by the level of consumption
(needs) which is much higher than domestic production. Based on Pusdatin (2020), the
average development of Indonesian garlic consumption since 2014 is 539 thousand tons per
year, while the average domestic garlic production is only 41 thousand tons per year. This
causes the government to have to carry out a garlic import policy so that domestic needs can
be met (Wenda and Tuhuteru 2022; Hariwibowo et al. 2014).
The high dependence of garlic on imported supplies causes garlic imports in Indonesia
to continue to increase. Some of the causes of high garlic imports in Indonesia include
domestic production that has not been able to meet domestic demand, changes in consumer
preferences, and the need for raw materials that cannot be produced domestically (Haryono
et al. 2015). According to Ameriana (1998), household consumer preferences want larger
garlic that is easier to peel and cut, while the size of local garlic is relatively smaller. The
problem in garlic production in Indonesia is the low competitiveness of garlic compared to
imported garlic (Kurniawan et al. 2020). Based on Noor et al. (2018), this is due to the good
quality and large size of imported garlic which makes many people choose imported garlic
products compared to local garlic so that the demand for local garlic decreases. In addition,
t h e free trade policy causes the price of imported garlic to be cheaper than local garlic,
making it difficult for local garlic farmers to compete with imported garlic and causing many
farmers to be reluctant to plant garlic (Haryono et al. 2015). The trade flow of imported
garlic, which tends to be shorter than that of local garlic, is also the cause of the shortage of
imported garlic (Haryono et al. 2015). The price of imported garlic can be cheaper than the
price of domestic garlic (Kiloes and Sopha 2015). Another difficulty experienced by local
garlic farmers is the lack of availability of superior seeds, which results in low garlic
productivity and also has an impact on the small amount of garlic production (Pusdatin
2020). Another weakness of local garlic is the high cost of production so that the price
received by consumers will not be cheaper when compared to imported garlic (Kiloes and
Arsanti 2015).
On the other hand, Indonesia was once almost self-sufficient in garlic and was able to
meet up to 80 percent of national garlic needs through domestic production until 1998
(Wagiman 2021; Noor et al, 2018). At that time, the domestic garlic harvest area was always
above 20 thousand tons per year (Pusdatin 2020). However, after trade liberalization
occurred, which reduced import barriers, garlic imports in Indonesia continued to increase
and caused domestic production to continue to decline. The development of garlic production
and import volume in Indonesia from 1989 to 2021 when Indonesia was self-sufficient in
garlic is presented in Figure 3.
On the other hand, the government continues to strive so that the availability of
domestic garlic can be met through domestic production. One of them is through Regulation
of the Minister of Agriculture (MOA) number 38 of 2017 which was revised to MOA
number 39 of 2019 concerning Horticultural Product Import Recommendations (RIPH)
which regulates the obligation of garlic importers to plant a minimum of 5% of the import
quota submitted in the RIPH. Importers who do not carry out their obligations will be
blacklisted by the Ministry of Agriculture and cannot obtain RIPH in the following year.
Since the implementation of the mandatory planting policy for garlic importers, the area of
garlic harvest has increased significantly by 67 percent, which in 2017 only amounted to
2000 ha and in 2020 reached 12,511 ha. Domestic garlic production also increased by 53
percent from only 19 thousand tons in 2017 to 81 thousand tons in 2020 (BPS 2022b). Until
now, the mandatory garlic planting policy has never been fully implemented because there
are still many importers who do not fulfill their obligations (DG Horticulture 2022; Sayaka
et al. 2021). The government has also carried out other policies such as the program to
increase the area through APBN funding, the provision of fertilizers and mulch and
superior seeds, and other policies in order to increase domestic garlic production and
productivity. Data on the development of mandatory garlic planting realizations since 2017
are in Table 2.
Until now, the target of garlic self-sufficiency in Indonesia has not been achieved and
the government also continues to strive to increase Indonesia's garlic production. Therefore,
it is necessary to analyze more deeply the supply and demand of garlic in Indonesia by
conducting a policy scenario analysis related to the availability of Indonesian garlic.
Through the dynamic system model built and the policy scenario analysis carried out, the
most effective policy can be obtained in order to increase garlic production so that domestic
needs can be met from domestic production.
2.1 Garlic Availability in Indonesia
In 1995, Indonesia's garlic production reached 152 thousand tons with a harvest area
of 21 thousand ha, while in 2021 the garlic harvest area in Indonesia was only 6 thousand ha
with a total production of 45 thousand tons (Pusdatin 2020; BPS 2022b). In the same period,
garlic productivity increased from 6.9 tons/ha to 7.2 tons/ha (FAO 2021). In the early 1990s,
80% of Indonesia's garlic demand could be met through domestic production, but since 1999
there has been a significant decline in garlic harvest areas (Sakinah et al. 2019; Noor et al.
2018). In the end, there is a scarcity of garlic in traditional markets caused by a lack of
domestic supply so that the needs of traditional markets are not met and require supplies
from imported garlic (Meleriansyah et al. 2014). As much as 90 percent of garlic needs in
Indonesia are met through imports, especially garlic imports from China. Indonesia's
dependence on imported garlic makes it the largest consumer of garlic in the international
market (Indrayani and Swara 2014). Indonesia is the largest garlic importer in the world
(Sayaka et al. 2021; Shofiyah and Sugiarti 2020; Yovirizka and Haryanto 2020). The cause
of the lack of availability of garlic in terms of domestic production is the slow increase in
domestic production and the increase in consumption due to rising incomes (Yovirizka and
Haryanto 2020). Indonesia's garlic production and harvest area continue to decline (Sayaka
et al. 2021; Shofiyah and Sugiarti 2020). According to MOA (2022a), the causes of the
decline in garlic production in Indonesia include the conversion of garlic commodities to
other commodities, mandatory planting programs that are constrained by the compliance of
business actors in realizing planting, low market prices and limited markets for garlic other
than seeds. In addition, currently, garlic production is still highly dependent on APBN
funding so that if there is a decrease in APBN funding, it will greatly affect Indonesian
garlic production (Kementan 2022a).
2.2 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand
In previous studies, garlic supply can be analyzed using the total production approach
while garlic demand can be measured through the total consumption approach. Research
related to factors affecting garlic supply in Indonesia has been conducted by Lingga et al.
(2021), with the results of the study that the price of SP-36 fertilizer, the price of shallots, and
the area of garlic harvest are factors that significantly affect the supply of garlic in
Karanganyar Regency where the variable that has the greatest influence on garlic supply is
the price of SP-36 fertilizer. Based on Meleriansyah et al. (2014) found that area has a
significant effect on garlic production in Indonesia. Other research conducted by Falo et al.
(2016) and Djoka and Kune (2019) who found that garlic production is influenced by land
area, seeds, and labor. Based on Waryanto et al. (2019), cultivation techniques and the use
of Production inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and land used by Indonesian farmers are still
inefficient and cause national garlic production to be suboptimal. The cause of declining
garlic production is the decline in farmers' interest in cultivating garlic because farmers are
unable to compete with imported garlic that enters in large quantities at a lower price level
compared to domestic garlic (Hadianto et al. 2019).
Based on Hariwibowo et al. (2014), the variables that affect garlic demand in
Indonesia are the real price of imported garlic and the previous year's garlic demand. Dahar
(2017) analyzed shallot demand and found that shallot price, garlic price, leek price, income,
and number of dependents significantly affect shallot demand. Based on Lay et al. (2018),
the factors that influence the demand for shallots in South Central Timor District are the
price of shallots, the income of each household, and the amount of consumption. Research
on other commodities was conducted by Sari et al. (2014) related to the production and
consumption of Indonesian soybeans and found that land area and fertilizer use costs have a
significant effect on soybean production, besides that production, imports, and consumption
in the previous period affect soybean consumption. Research by Malian et al. (2004) found
that rice production and consumption are affected by rice imports, fertilizer prices, and real
exchange rates. Based on Junaidi et al. (2020), shallot production is influenced by seeds, ZA
fertilizer, and phonska fertilizer. Mung bean production is influenced by seeds and farmer
experience (Moy et al. 2017).
2.3 Increased Production and Productivity
Based on Sugiartiningsih and Ikram (2020), the development of garlic production in
Indonesia which has decreased is caused by the use of land area for garlic cultivation which
is not optimal, especially in Java, due to weak government regulations on imports. Based on
Arshad et al. (2011), to achieve the target level of rice production, the policy of guaranteeing
the minimum price of grain, price control, price and input subsidies, and import monopolies
are carried out. Based on Bach and Saeed (1992), Vietnam's strategy to increase food
production, namely rice, is to encourage increased yields rather than expanding planting
areas. Based on Nugroho et al. (2019), the government through the Ministry of Agriculture
(MOA) has allocated the state budget in order to increase garlic production and productivity
through assistance and counseling on garlic cultivation and the provision of production
facilities (saprodi) in the form of fertilizers. Through Minister of Agriculture Regulation
(MOA) number 38 of 2017 which was updated to MOA number 39 of 2019 concerning
Horticultural Product Import Recommendations (RIPH), every business actor importing
garlic is required to plant garlic at least 5 percent of the proposed import quota. The
development of garlic can be done independently or in collaboration with farmers. However,
importers usually prefer to partner with farmers in carrying out these planting obligations
due to limited capacity and cultivation management (Zaini et al. 2021).
Another effort made by the government in order to expand food land is to develop a
large-scale food area (food estate/food barn) which is one of the government's efforts in
maintaining Indonesia's food security which is in line with the local government's goal of
creating regional economic activities with the involvement of the community and investors
(Asti et al. 2016). Food estate is a large-scale crop cultivation business activity (>25 ha)
carried out on the basis of the integration of sectors and subsectors in an agribusiness system
by utilizing resources optimally and sustainably, managed professionally, supported by
qualified human resources, environmentally sound appropriate technology, and strong
institutions (Balitbangtan 2010). According to Syaukat (2010) in Sutawi (2020), Food estate
is an integrated food production development concept consisting of agriculture, plantations,
and livestock located in a very large land area (an integrated farming, plantation and
livestock zone).
2.4 Problems with Garlic Imports
Garlic imports are always increasing due to trade liberalization in Indonesia which
results in the domestic price of garlic not being fully determined by domestic demand and
supply, but also influenced by the price of imported garlic (Wijaya et al. 2014). Import
dependence on a commodity will reduce the country's foreign exchange which will
ultimately have an impact on hampering development. A country is required to be able to
independently produce food for its people with the aim that available foreign exchange can
be utilized for development (Kiloes and Arsanti 2015). Meeting needs through imports only
provides a short-term guarantee of national garlic availability while in the long run it will
lead to a decrease in the productivity of the agricultural sector which is one of the important
sectors in economic growth (Mukhlis 2013). According to Arifin (2001), import dependence
will worsen the condition of the national economy. Imported garlic that freely enters
Indonesia can be a threat to independence in providing garlic in Indonesia (Sosastro and
Basri 1998 in Kiloes and Arsanti 2015).
2.5 Previous Research with System Dynamics Model
Research by Dudin et al. (2020) using a dynamic system model found that garlic
production in Bali Province is still unable to meet the overall demand for garlic in Bali
Province so that supplies from outside the island are still needed, increasing the planting
area, and increasing productivity. The results of Kiloes and Sopha's (2015) research on
policies to reduce dependence on garlic imports using a dynamical system model found that
the implementation of 40 percent import duties can ensure the competitiveness of imported
garlic prices, in addition to the application of GAP by 100 percent and the expansion of
1000 ha of land per year can increase garlic production by 300 thousand per year. Hadianto's
research (2019) using the ARIMA method shows that in 2019 Indonesia has not been able to
achieve self-sufficiency in garlic because the estimated consumption is much more than that
in 2019.
As a result, policy strategies such as expanding planting areas, increasing productivity
and stabilizing prices are needed. Based on Ramli et al. (2012) the removal of fertilizer
subsidies decreased rice production which resulted in a decrease in the level of self-
sufficiency. Research by Muhandhis et al. (2019) found that to be able to meet domestic salt
needs is done by regulating prices that benefit farmers and to increase productivity using
optimal technology. In Table 3 there are previous studies that use system dynamic models.
Theoretical Framework
1.1.1 Supply and Demand Theory
According to Lipsey et al. (1995) supply is the amount of commodities offered at a
given price level and time. The price and quantity of a commodity or the amount to be
offered are positively related, assuming other factors are ceteris paribus. If the price of a
commodity is higher, the more commodities will be offered. Conversely, the lower the price,
the smaller the quantity of commodities to be offered. The amount of commodities offered
by producers is influenced by the price of the commodity itself, input prices, firm objectives
and technology.
Based on Case et al. (2013) a supply curve shows the relationship between the
quantity of goods or services supplied by a firm (Q) and the resulting price of the goods or
services (P) in the market. A higher price will likely lead to an increase in the quantity
offered, ceteris paribus. When the price of a product changes ceteris paribus, the change in
quantity offered follows suit, a movement along the supply curve. Supply decisions are also
influenced by factors other than price. A new relationship between price and quantity
offered occurs when factors other than price change, and the result is a shift in the supply
curve. When factors other than price cause the supply curve to shift, there has been a change
in supply. A change in the price of a good or service causes a change in the quantity offered
(movement along the supply curve). Changes in costs, input prices, technology, or prices of
related goods and services cause changes in supply (shifts in the supply curve).
According to Lipsey et al. (1995) demand is the amount of a commodity demanded at
a given price level and time. The quantity demanded is the amount (number of units) of a
product that a household would buy in a given period if it could buy everything it wants at
the current market price (Case et al. 2013). The price and quantity of a commodity to be
demanded are negatively related to other factors ceteris paribus. The lower the price of a
commodity, the greater the quantity that will be demanded for that commodity. Conversely,
the higher the price, the lower the quantity demanded. Demand for a good or commodity is
influenced by the price of the good itself, average household income, prices of related
commodities, tastes, income distribution among households and population size.
Based on Case et al. (2013) the demand curve shows the relationship between the
amount demanded (Q) and the price of a good (P). The demand curve is derived while
income, tastes, and other prices remain constant. If income, tastes, or other prices change,
there will be a change in the relationship between price and quantity. It is important to
distinguish between changes in quantity demanded-that is, some movement along the
demand curve-and shifts in demand. Demand schedules and curves Demand shows the
relationship between the price of a good or service and the amount demanded per period,
ceteris paribus. If the price changes, the quantity demanded will change-this is the
movement along the demand curve. However, when one of the other factors affecting
demand changes, a new relationship between price and quantity demanded is formed-this is
a shift in the demand curve. The result, then, is a new demand curve. A change in the price
of a good or service causes a change in the quantity demanded (movement along the demand
curve). A change in income, preferences, or the price of another good or service causes a
change in demand (a shift in the demand curve).
According to Sugiarto et al. (2007) supply and demand analysis is an important tool
for:
a. Understand the response of the price and quantity of a commodity to changes in
economic variables such as the price of factors of production, the price of other
commodities, consumer tastes, and technology.
b. Analyze the competitive interaction between sellers and buyers in generating the price
and quantity of a commodity.
c. Indicates the freedom that the market gives to consumers and producers.
d. Analyze the effects of various government policy interventions in the market, such as
price controls, quotas, taxes, subsidies, etc.
1.1.2 Concepts of Availability, Self-Sufficiency, and Food Security
The concept of food self-sufficiency is generally defined as the extent to which a
country can meet its food needs from its own domestic production (FAO 1999). Based on
FAO (2012), the ability of a commodity to meet domestic needs is known through the SSR
(Self Sufficiency Ratio) indicator. On-trend self-sufficiency means that at least 90% of food
needs are met from domestic production, while the rest is met from imports when domestic
supply is insufficient (Ariningsih 2014; Handayani et al. 2016). For relatively developed
economies, where the market system is in place, the appropriate concept of self-sufficiency
is the ability of the economy to export and import with consideration of the extent to which
the foodstuff has strong linkages in the economy (Bunasor 1993).
The stability of a country is influenced by the availability of food in the country. By
achieving self-sufficiency, there will be foreign exchange savings that can be utilized for
other purposes besides food provision (Hasan et al. 2015). Each country has a different
understanding of the concept of availability, based on Arshad et al. (2011), food security is
achieved if rice production reaches 65-70% of local consumption. According to Fristovana
et al. (2019) food security is a condition when individual food fulfillment is adequate, safe,
equitable, and affordable. Food security not only means sufficient food availability but also
environmental sustainability that is guaranteed for sustainable production (Sriyadi et al.
2015). According to Jokolelono (2011), the concept of food security includes three
important things: availability, access and utilization. The food availability subsystem
consists of production, imports and utilization food reserves (Suryana 2004 in Jokolelono
2011). There are several definitions related to self-sufficiency, according to Suryana (2008)
and Mulatsih (2012), self-sufficiency occurs if 90% of needs are met through domestic
production and the rest is imported. Meanwhile, the definition of self-sufficiency according
to MOA is when domestic production is able to meet 100% of domestic needs/zero imports
(MOA 2017; Kusuma and Rachbini 2019).
The definition of food security based on Law No. 18/2012 is the condition of the
fulfillment of food for the state to individuals, which is reflected in the availability of food
that is sufficient (quantity and quality), safe, diverse, nutritious, equitable and affordable,
and does not conflict with religion, beliefs, and culture of the community to be able to live
actively, healthily, and productively in a sustainable manner. The policy direction of the
Food Security Agency in 2020-2024 is the strengthening of food security which includes
aspects of food availability, food affordability, and food utilization with the following main
strategies (BKP 2019):
1. Prioritize the implementation of activities in food-insecure areas.
2. Strengthening food distribution and reserve institutions
3. Supervision in controlling staple food prices
4. Increase food diversification sourced from local foods
5. Safety and quality control of fresh food of plant origin
6. Implementation of Bureaucratic Reform
1.1.3 Dynamical System Model Concept
System is defined as a collection of interrelated components in order to achieve a
certain goal (Hartrisari 2007). The system approach is an approach to understanding the
complexity of the real world and involves various interested parties by looking at the
interaction between important elements in order to achieve certain goals (Muhammadi et al.
2001). Systems based on their nature consist of static systems and dynamic systems. A static
system is a system whose output value is not determined by the input value. Dynamic
systems are characterized by a time delay that describes the dependence of output on input
variables at a certain period of time. Dynamic system is a method that can describe the
process, behavior, and complexity in the system (Hartrisari 2007). Dynamical systems are
also defined as a field used to understand how things change over time (Forrester 1968).
System dynamics is one of the most suitable methods in considering scenarios to
overcome a problem in socioeconomic development (Homutinin 2011). According to
Manetsch and Park (1977) in Hartrisari (2007), the stages of the system approach consist of:
1. Needs analysis. The stage of identifying the needs of stakeholders. Each system actor
has different needs that can affect system performance.
2. Problem formulation. Based on the needs analysis, there are aligned and conflicting
needs. Conflicting stakeholder needs require a solution that is obtained from
understanding of the system mechanism. The problem of the system mechanism is carried out at
the system identification stage.
3. System identification. An effort to recognize the relationship between needs and
problems to be solved. Approaches that can be used include developing a c a u s a l loop
diagram or black box diagram (input-output diagram).
4. System modeling. Modeling should adhere to scientific discipline and logical thinking
and be iterative. The modeling process needs to take into account the time horizon.
5. Model testing consists of verification and validation. Verification is defined as stating
the truth, reality, or accuracy, while validation is the correct conclusion based on
predetermined conditions.
6. Implementation According to Sterman (2000), the behavior of a system is derived from its
structure consisting of feedback loops, stocks and flows, and nonlinearities created by the
interaction of the physical and institutional structure of the system with the decision-making
process. Basic patterns of behavior in dynamical systems are identified with the feedback
structures that generate them. These patterns consist of growth (created by positive feedback),
goal seeking (created by negative feedback), and oscillations (created by negative feedback and
time delays). More complex patterns include s-shaped growth, growth with overshoot, and
overshoot and collapse which are formed from the nonlinear interaction of the fundamental
feedback structure. The general pattern of system behavior can be seen in Figure 4.
1.2 Operational Framework
The operational framework is prepared based on literature review and theories that
support this research. Garlic is a horticultural food commodity strategic in Indonesia.
Sufficient availability of garlic is very necessary to strive for in order to meet the increasing
needs of garlic consumption in Indonesia. However, there are still several problems related
to the provision of domestic garlic including the inadequacy of consumption with production
due to low domestic garlic production and productivity, minimal garlic land area, high garlic
imports that continue to increase, farming inefficiencies, and unstable garlic prices. The
availability system of garlic in Indonesia is influenced by supply activities as well as
national garlic consumption. Several factors affect the supply of garlic in Indonesia in
general, namely domestic production, stocks, and garlic imports. Domestic garlic production
is influenced by garlic acreage and productivity. Factors affecting the consumption
(demand) of garlic in Indonesia consist of consumption and population. National garlic
consumption consists of household consumption and non-household consumption (industry
and horeka). Increasing the availability of domestic garlic can be done by evaluating policies
related to the supply of garlic, namely by combining existing policies including increasing
the planting area, realizing mandatory planting policies by importers, increasing
productivity, and imposing i m p o r t tariffs. The combination of these policies is expected to
realize the availability of garlic that is fulfilled from domestic production. The research
operational framework can be seen in Figure 5.
4.1.1 Problem Formulation Analysis
Problem formulation analysis in a dynamic system model is needed to map the various
needs of system actors, both synergistic and contradictory (Nurmalina 2007). The problems
faced by stakeholders in the m system are presented in Table 6.
Causal loop diagram (CLD) is a flexible tool useful for diagramming the feedback
structure of systems in any domain (Sterman 2000). A CLD is a map that shows the causal
relationship between variables with arrows from cause to effect. The CLD in Figure 6
illustrates the interrelated relationship between elements in the Indonesian garlic supply and
demand model. The cause is depicted by the upstream of the arrow and the effect is depicted
by the tip of the arrow. If the addition of one variable results in the addition of another
variable, the relationship is positive, while if the addition of one variable results in a
reduction in another variable, the relationship is negative. The relationship between
variables built in each submodel is based on theory, empirical and logic.
The supply submodel is the first submodel to be built. In the supply submodel, the
outputs to be achieved are Indonesian garlic production, Indonesian garlic supply and farmer
income. Furthermore, the demand submodel is influenced by population and per capita
consumption (reflecting household consumption). The output in this submodel is the level of
consumption of Indonesian garlic.
Increasing productivity and planting area will lead to an increase in garlic production
and supply as well as farmers' income. Increased farmer income is determined by the
productivity and price of garlic at the farm level. Increased farmer income due to increased
productivity will encourage farmers to allocate their funds to buy higher inputs which will
also encourage increased productivity.
The increase in population and per capita consumption levels has resulted in increased
domestic consumption, encouraging domestic processing industries to increase the use of
raw materials. This results in an increasing demand for garlic which will encourage an
increase in the price of garlic in the market.
Increased garlic production will reduce the dependence of garlic imports on other
countries. Mandatory planting policies, reduction of land conversion, policies to increase
area and productivity will encourage an increase in domestic garlic production.
1) Black Box Diagram
Black box diagrams describe the relationship between outputs and inputs based on the
stages of needs analysis and problem formulation (Rosiana 2019). The input output diagram
consists of uncontrolled input, controlled input, environmental input, desired output,
unwanted output, and feedback.
4.1.2 Model Formulation
The Indonesian garlic supply and demand model is built from three submodels: supply
submodel, demand submodel, and trade submodel. Each submodel built has a relationship
with each other.
1) Supply (production) submodel
The supply submodel aims to analyze the amount of garlic obtained from domestically
produced garlic production and the amount of garlic imported. The supply submodel will
affect the demand submodel and is influenced by the trade submodel. An increase in garlic
area will also increase garlic production (Hariwibowo et al. 2014; Meleriansyah et al. 2014).
Production is also affected by productivity. The higher the productivity, the higher the
production. Increased production will also increase supply. Supply is influenced by
production, imports and stocks.
Production also affects farmers' total income. The higher the production, the higher the
total income of farmers. Total farmer income is influenced by total revenue and total cost.
The total revenue of farmers is influenced by the price of garlic at the farm level and the
amount of national garlic production. The better the quality of garlic, the higher the price of
garlic received by farmers. The supply submodel built is in Figure 8.
The mathematical equation in the supply submodel that connects interrelated variables is
as follows:
a. Area (t)=Init Area (t-dt) + (Area Rate)*dt
b. Productivity (t)= Init Prdktvts (t-dt) + (Rate Prdktvts)*dt
c. Garlic Production='Productivity'*'Harvested Area'
d. Utilized Land Ratio='Available Land'/'Acreage'
e. WT Realization (t)= WT Realization (t-dt) + (Realization Rate)*dt
f. Total Seed Requirement='Seed Requirement'*'Area'
g. TR= ('Farmer Price'*'Garlic Production')/'Area'
h. Farmer's Income = 'TR'-'TC'
i. Garlic Supply='Garlic Production'+'BP Import'+'Garlic Stock'-'BP Export'
2) Demand (need) submodel
The demand submodel aims to analyze the amount of garlic consumed in the country.
Garlic consumption is influenced by per capita consumption and population. If the per capita
consumption level increases, the total consumption will also increase (Kusnadi and
Tinaprilla 2011). Similarly, an increase in population will cause total consumption to
increase (Nurmalina 2007). The total national consumption of garlic consists of household
consumption and domestic consumption non-household consumption (industry and
horeka/hotel, restaurant and catering). The constructed demand submodel is shown in Figure
9.
4.1.3 Model Validation
Validation is an effort to obtain correct conclusions that are supported by objective
truth (Sterman 2000). Based on Muhammadi et al. (2001) model validation consists of
structure validity test and performance validity test. The structure validity test aims to ensure
that the model structure is close to the real structure indicated by the interaction of model
variables resembling real events. The model structure that passes the structure validity test is
a good model structure. Furthermore, the performance validity test aims to determine the
extent to which the performance of the model matches the performance of the real system so
that the requirements as a scientific model are appropriate. The fact is fulfilled. To measure
the deviation between the simulation output and the base data using statistical tests, namely
the Absolute Mean Error (AME) which is the difference (deviation) between the average
value of the simulation results and the actual value. The research validation test using AME
has a deviation limit of ≤ 10% (Muhammadi et al. 2001). Calculation of validation using
AME with the following equation.
4.1.4 Policy Simulation
Policy simulation is an effort to arrange decisions in creating real events to achieve
expected events (Muhammadi et al. 2001). The policy simulation conducted is to analyze
the supply and demand model of garlic in Indonesia. The policy scenarios used in this study
are listed in Table 10.
4.1.5 Sensitivity Analysis
Based on Muhammadi et al. (2001) Model sensitivity is the model's response to a
stimulus. Sensitivity test is a stimulus treatment that causes a response to the behavior or
performance of the model with the aim of explaining the sensitivity of parameters, variables
and relationships between variables in the model. Model sensitivity can explain the results
of interventions on the structure of the system in finding policy alternatives, both to
accelerate the possibility of positive results and anticipate possible negative impacts.
The criteria used to assess the level of sensitivity are that a parameter can be declared
sensitive if the parameter is changed by 10% and the effect on system performance reaches
5-14%, very sensitive if the effect is 15-34%, and highly sensitive if the effect is greater
than 35% (Maani and Cavana 2000 in Adi 2021).
5.1 Dynamical System Model of Indonesian Garlic Supply and Demand
The dynamic system model of supply and demand for Indonesian garlic is built to
determine the characteristic patterns of domestic garlic supply and demand behavior. The
garlic supply and demand model in this study is built from the supply submodel, demand
submodel, and trade submodel. Before the scenario simulation is carried out, it is necessary
to test the validity of the model first. The following is the validation and behavioral
characteristic patterns of the Indonesian garlic supply and demand model.
5.1.1 Model Validation
Model validation consists of structural validity test and model performance validity
test (Muhammadi et al. 2001). Model validation is carried out using the AME (Absolute
Mean Error) value. The model validation years used were 2015 to 2021. The variables
measured for validity are production, import value, and total consumption. Based on the
AME calculation results, each submodel has an AME value <10% so that the model is
declared valid. The following are the results of the validity test of the performance of the
Indonesian garlic supply and demand model.
5.1.2 Pattern of Model Behavior Characteristics
The simulation period used to see the behavior of the model starts from 2022 to 2033.
a) Behavior of Supply Submodel
Garlic supply in the base condition shows an increasing trend with an increase of 1.5
percent per year. Indonesia's garlic supply is influenced by domestic production, imports,
and garlic stocks. Garlic production shows a goal seeking pattern with an average decrease of
34.9 percent per year. This is due to the decreasing land area and productivity. The
government has set a garlic production target of 914,425 tons in 2033-2034 (Balitbangtan
2017). Based on the simulation results in the base condition, the target is still not achieved.
The simulation results in the base condition related to the supply and production of
Indonesian garlic are in Table 12.
The amount of garlic produced by farmers is highly dependent on the area and
productivity of ga r l i c . T he total income earned by farmers is also strongly influenced by
the amount of garlic that can be produced. In the base condition, the area and total income of
garlic farmers both have a goal seeking pattern. Ga rl ic area in the period 2022 to 2033
decreased by 29.7 percent per year on average. In the same period, garlic productivity has an
average decrease of 7.4 percent per year. Total farmer income also decreased by 24.7
percent per year.
The government has targeted a garlic area of 60 thousand ha to achieve self-sufficiency
(Pusdatin 2020). The simulation results in the base condition show that the target area will
still not be achieved until 2033 due to the decreasing area. In addition, in order to achieve
garlic self-sufficiency, the government has also set a garlic productivity target of 10 tons/ha
(Pusdatin 2020). However, based on the simulation results in the base condition, garlic
productivity also continues to decline so that the target cannot be achieved. According to
Pusdatin (2020), the decline in garlic productivity is caused by several things, including the
low implementation of production technology innovation, price comparisons with
alternative crops, and climate change that disrupts garlic growth. The decline in production
caused by a decrease in area and productivity also has an impact on farmers' income,
causing farmers' income to decline. The price of garlic at the farm level also affects the total
income of farmers. In the baseline condition, the price of garlic at the farmer's level
experiences increase following world prices. The development of area, productivity, and
total income of Indonesian garlic farmers is in Table 13.
b) Demand Submodel Behavior
Based on Table 14, the behavior pattern of garlic demand in the base condition is
exponential growth with an average increase of 12.7 percent per year. Indonesia's garlic
demand is formed from total garlic consumption consisting of per capita consumption, non-
household consumption and influenced by the population of Indonesia. Per capita
consumption has an exponential growth behavior pattern with an average increase of 12.2
percent and non-household consumption increases by 0.5 percent per year. Population also
has an increasing trend with an increase of 1 percent per year. Increases in per capita
consumption and household consumption have contributed to the increase in demand for
garlic. The increase in demand also follows the increase in population.
c) Trading Submodel Behavior
In the base condition, the import volume has an increasing trend and the value of garlic
imports has an exponential growth behavior pattern. Garlic import volume increases by 2.4
percent per year. The value of garlic imports has an average increase of 13.5 percent per year.
This increase in garlic imports occurs because garlic production continues to decline while
demand for garlic continues to increase. The increase in the value of imports is also due to
world prices, which have also increased by 10.79 percent per year. Meanwhile, Indonesia's
garlic exports have a goal seeking pattern. Garlic exports have decreased by 99.5 percent per
year. The development of the trade submodel in actual conditions can be seen in Table 15.
The simulation results of garlic availability in the base condition show a pattern of goal
seeking behavior. Initially in 2022 the availability of garlic is 221,159 tons and continues to
decline until in 2033 it is predicted to experience a deficit of up to 1,177,843 tons. This
decrease in availability is caused by an increase in t h e demand rate that is much higher
than the rate of supply of garlic. The development of garlic availability in the base condition
is shown in Figure 12 garlic production has not been achieved. So have the targets for garlic
area and productivity. In the base condition there is a decrease in production, area, and
productivity of garlic which causes supply and availability to decrease. In addition,
competition with imported garlic is also suspected to be the cause of the decline in domestic
garlic production. The price competition between local garlic and imported garlic causes
farmers to prefer to plant other commodities that are more profitable. Therefore, the right
policy scenario is needed in order to increase the availability, especially the supply and
production of Indonesian garlic.
5.1.3 Model Scenario
Of the various policy scenario options listed in Table 10, based on the results of the
analysis, 8 alternative scenarios for garlic commodities were formed. There are four policies
and a combination of several policies consisting of a) Scenario 1 (increasing area), b)
Scenario 2 (increasing productivity, c) Scenario 3 (increasing mandatory planting), d)
Scenario 4 (procurement of import tariffs), and the rest is a combination of several scenarios.
Each option considers the limited land area available for garlic of 600 thousand ha (Pusdatin
2019) and the maximum tariff (maximum ad valorem duty) set by the WTO for garlic
commodities (HS 070230) which is 5 percent (WTO 2022).
a) Scenario 1: Increase in garlic area
Scenario 1 is an increase in garlic planting area of 5000 ha/year. This is based on the
initial plan for the allocation of APBN funding for the development of garlic areas in 2021
based on the 2021 Ministry of Agriculture Performance Report. The simulation results of
scenario 1 can produce a garlic supply of 951,840 tons in 2033 with an increase of 1.8
percent per year. In the analysis period, garlic supply in scenario 1 increased by 0.3 percent
compared to the base condition. A comparison of garlic supply in scenario 1 and the baseline
condition is shown in Figure 13.
Through scenario 1, in 2024 the balance of garlic availability is still worth 49,942 tons
and then in 2026 it starts to experience a deficit of 40,891 tons. The availability deficit
continues to occur until in 2033 it reaches 1,147.57 tons. A comparison of supply, demand,
and availability balance of Indonesian garlic in scenario 1 is in Table 16.
In scenario 1, the area of garlic has increased by 5.4 percent per year and is able to
reach 10,794 ha in 2033. This is different from the base condition where the area of garlic has
a downward trend of 29.7 percent per year. The increase in garlic area has still not been able
to achieve the target area of 60 thousand ha. Through scenario 1, the achievement of the
target area is only 17.9 percent. A comparison of the area of garlic in scenario 1 and the
baseline condition is in Table 17.
In scenario 1, garlic production has a downward trend with an average decrease of 2.4
percent per year. When compared to the base condition, the addition of garlic area through
scenario 1 is able to increase garlic production by 35.1 percent. Through scenario 1,
Indonesia's garlic production in 2033 can reach 30,649 tons from only 384 tons in the
baseline. Scenario 1 only achieves the production target by 3.3 percent of the production
target of 914,425 tons. The average contribution of local garlic production in domestic garlic
supply is 5.7 percent per year, while the rest is met from imports and garlic stocks from the
previous year. A comparison of garlic production during scenario 1 and before the scenario
can be seen in Figure 14.
The increase in production due to the policy of increasing the area also affects the total
income of garlic farmers. Under scenario 1, the total income of farmers increased by 13
percent per year and was able to reach IDR 552 billion in 2033. Compared to the base
condition, the total income of garlic farmers increased by 37.7 percent which in 2033 only
reached IDR 6.9 billion. Increase
b) Scenario 2: Increased garlic productivity
Scenario 2 is an increase in garlic productivity of 1.95 tons/ha/year from 6.63 tons/ha to
8.58 tons/ha based on the target in the Directorate General of Horticulture Strategic Plan 2020-
2024. Pusdatin (2020) also targets garlic productivity at 10 tons/ha so that domestic garlic
production is able to meet national needs. Through scenario 2, in 2033 the national garlic
supply is able to reach 922,815 tons with an increase of 1.5 percent per year. This is an
increase of 0.05 percent when compared to the baseline condition of 921,575 tons. Garlic
supply in scenario 2 is lower when compared to scenario 1 where in scenario 1 the increase
in supply is 1.8 percent. A comparison of Indonesia's garlic supply when scenario 2 is applied
with the base condition is shown in Figure 16.
While the supply has increased, the fulfillment of national garlic needs continues to
decline every year because the demand for garlic continues to increase by 13 percent per
year. to reach 2,099,417 tons in 2033. In 2025 the availability of garlic is still worth 20,686
tons and then in the following year it starts to experience an availability deficit, namely in
2026 amounting to 71,975 tons. The availability deficit continues to occur until it reaches
1,176,601 tons in 2033. When compared to scenario 1, in 2033 the availability of garlic
under scenario 2 is lower than scenario 1. The development of supply, demand, and
availability balance of Indonesian garlic when scenario 2 is applied is in Table 18.
The increase in garlic supply is due to increased production caused by increased
productivity. Through the scenario
2 Indonesia's garlic productivity has increased by 5.9 percent per year and reached the target
of 10 tons/ha in 2025 which then continues to increase until 2033 reaching 12 tons/ha. This
shows that productivity increased by 13.3 percent compared to the base condition where
garlic productivity decreased by 7.4 percent per year and only reached 2.8 tons/ha in 2033.
A comparison of Indonesian garlic productivity during scenario 2 with the baseline
conditions can be seen in Table 19.
Through increasing garlic productivity, in 2033 domestic production will only be able to
produce 1624 tons of garlic because it continues to decline by 25 percent per year. This
happens because the area of garlic continues to decline by 30 percent per year. Compared to
the conditions before the scenario, garlic production after scenario 2 is implemented has
increased by 10 percent per year, where at the time of the base condition in 2033 Indonesia
was only able to produce 384 tons of garlic. However, the predetermined production target
of 914,425 tons still cannot be achieved. When compared to the previous scenario, garlic
production in scenario 1 is still much higher than scenario 2. The development of garlic
BP Offer
production when scenario 2 is implemented with the baseline condition is shown in Figure
17.
Increased productivity also affects the increase in total farmer income. When scenario 2
is implemented, the total income of Indonesian garlic farmers increases by 20.2 percent
when compared to the baseline condition. However, the total income of garlic farmers
decreased by 5 percent per year. Nevertheless, the total income of farmers was able to reach
IDR 55 billion in 2033. This is quite an increase when compared to the total income of
farmers in the baseline condition, which in 2033 only reached IDR 5 billion. This increase in
total farmer income is influenced by the increasing production and price of garlic. Total
farmer income in scenario 2 is still lower than in scenario 1. A comparison of the total
income of garlic farmers under scenario 2 and base conditions can be seen in Figure 18.
c) Scenario 3: Mandatory planting
Scenario 3 is the implementation of mandatory garlic planting of 5 percent of the import
volume submitted in the RIPH by importers based on the highest realization since 2017,
which is 4209 ha/year (DG Horticulture 2022). The calculation of the target garlic planting
area from the mandatory planting program is obtained from 5 percent of the import quota
submitted in the RIPH multiplied by a productivity of 6 tons/ha (DG Horticulture 2022;
Sayaka et al. 2021). Under scenario 3, garlic supply increases by 2.2 percent per year and in
2033 it reaches 989,942 tons. This shows an increase of 0.7 percent when compared to the
supply under the baseline condition with an increase of 1.5 percent per year. Compared to
scenarios 1 and 2, scenario 3 has the highest garlic supply. A comparison of garlic supply
when compulsory planting is implemented with that under the baseline condition is shown in
Figure 19.
The rate of increase in demand for Indonesian garlic is much higher than the rate of
supply causing the availability of garlic to experience a deficit. In 2025 the availability of
garlic is still worth 50,255 tons. But since 2026 there has been a deficit availability by 23,194
tons until in 2033 it reaches 1,109,474 tons. Under scenario 3, the total national demand for
garlic in 2033 reaches 2,099,417 tons. Most of the fulfillment of these needs comes from
garlic imports. The deficit of garlic availability in scenario 3 at the end of the analysis period
is the lowest when compared to scenarios 1 and 2 whose deficits reach 1.14 million tons and
1.17 million tons, respectively. Table 20 shows the development of Indonesia's garlic
availability balance.
In scenario 3, the area of garlic has increased by 13.6 percent per year and is able to
reach 24,214 ha in 2033. This shows a significant increase when compared to the area under
the base condition which has a downward trend of 29.7 percent per year and in 2033 only
has an area of 135 ha. This increase in garlic area is still unable to meet the predetermined
target of 60 thousand ha. Through scenario 3, the percentage of achievement of the target
garlic area is 40.3 percent. The area of garlic area in scenario 3 is higher when compared to
scenarios 1 and 2. A comparison of the area of garlic area before and after scenario 3 is
implemented is in Table 21.
The development of garlic production when scenario 3 was implemented increased
by 5.2 percent per year and in 2033 reached 68,751 tons, contributing 6.9 percent to the
national garlic supply. Compared to the baseline conditions before scenario 3 was
implemented, garlic production increased by 40.1 percent from the initial decline of 34.9
percent per year and in 2033 was only able to produce 384 tons of garlic. This is due to the
declining area and productivity of garlic. Through scenario 3, the achievement of the garlic
production target is 7.5 percent of the production target of 914,425 tons. When compared to
scenarios 1 and 2, garlic production in scenario 3 is the highest. A comparison of Indonesian
garlic production before and after scenario 3 is implemented is in Figure 20.
Increased garlic production also has an impact on the total income of garlic farmers in
Indonesia. When scenario 3 is implemented, the total income of farmers increases by 21.7
percent per year, which in 2033 reaches IDR 1239 billion. This is due to the increase in
production due to the increase in area as a result of the policy compulsory planting is more
optimal. This shows that scenario 3 is able to significantly increase the total income of
farmers when compared to the total income of garlic farmers in the base condition which has
a downward trend of 25.2 percent per year. Total income in scenario 3 is higher when
compared to the previous two scenarios. A comparison of the total income of garlic farmers
before and after scenario 3 is implemented is shown in Figure 21.
d) Scenario 4: Import tariffs
This is based on the maximum tariff limit set by the WTO for garlic commodities (HS
070320 Garlic; fresh or chilled) as well as the application of import tariffs for most other
horticultural commodities at 5 percent and this tariff has also been applied previously to
garlic commodities before being abolished. Under scenario 4, the national supply of garlic
reaches 899,334 tons with an increase of 1.3 percent per year by 2033. When compared to
the base condition, the application of an import tariff of 5 percent causes garlic imports to
decrease so that garlic supply also decreases. In addition, this is also due to the decline in
domestic garlic production. Compared to scenarios 1, 2, and 3, the supply in scenario 4 is
the lowest. A comparison of Indonesia's garlic supply before and after scenario 4 is
implemented can be seen in Figure 22.
In 2024 Indonesia's garlic supply is still able to meet domestic garlic needs through both
imports and local production. However, since 2025 there is a deficit in the balance of garlic
availability of 2820 tons and continues to increase until 2033 reaching 1,200,083 tons. This
happens because with the implementation of scenario 4, the volume of Indonesia's garlic
imports has decreased while domestic garlic production remains at the base condition with a
decrease of 34.9 percent per year. When compared to the previous scenarios, the garlic
availability balance in scenario 4 is lower and has a higher deficit than scenarios 1, 2, and 3.
The development of Indonesia's garlic availability balance is in Table 22.
Indonesia's garlic import volume has increased by 2.2 percent per year and by 2033 is
estimated at 764,374 tons. The provision of import tariffs makes the import volume decrease
by 0.2 percent when compared to the base condition. In line with the import volume, the
import value of garlic also experiences the same thing. Under scenario 4, the value of garlic
imports increases by 13 percent per year which in 2033 is estimated to be worth
2,604,843,171 USD. The value of garlic imports has decreased when compared to the base
condition which has an increase of 13.5 percent per year and is estimated to be worth
2,680,635,239 USD in 2033. The decrease in the volume and value of garlic imports is due
to the procurement of import tariffs that make the imports more expensive. The price of
imported garlic increases so that the volume and value of imports decrease. A comparison of
garlic imports when scenario 4 is implemented and before is implemented is in Table 23.
The total income of garlic farmers has decreased by 25.1 percent per year. When
compared to the baseline condition, the total income of garlic farmers when scenario 4 is
implemented decreases by 0.4 percent per year. The implementation of import tariffs has an
impact on domestic garlic prices so that the income of domestic farmers increases. The total
income of farmers has decreased every year because Indonesia's garlic production continues
to decline. When compared to the previous three scenarios, the total income of farmers in
scenario 4 is lower than scenarios 1, 2, and 3. A comparison of the total income of farmers
when scenario 4 is implemented with the baseline can be seen in Figure 23.
Through scenario 4 garlic production does not change so that the production and area
targets that have been set previously still cannot be achieved. This is because the re-
imposition of import tariffs has no impact on domestic garlic production. The implementation
of import tariffs causes the volume of imported garlic to decrease.
The total income of garlic farmers when scenario 5 is implemented has increased by
45.3 percent per year and is able to reach IDR 4419 billion in 2033. When compared to the
base condition, the total income of garlic farmers has increased by 70 percent, which in 2033
only reached Rp 6.9 billion. This very significant increase in total farmer income is due to
the increased production of garlic due to the increased area and productivity of garlic.
e) Scenario 6: Combined scenario 2 and 3
Scenario 6 is a combination of scenario 2 (an increase in garlic productivity of 1.95
tons/ha) with scenario 3 (realization of mandatory planting by importers of 4209 ha/year).
Garlic supply in scenario 6 has increased by 4.1 percent per year and in 2033 it is able to
reach 1,212,333 tons while in the base condition the garlic supply achieved in 2033 only
reaches 1,212,333 tons.
921,575 tons. The implementation of scenario 6 can increase garlic supply by 2.6 percent
from the baseline condition. When compared to previous scenarios, garlic supply in scenario
6 is higher than scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. A comparison of Indonesia's garlic supply in
scenario 6 with the baseline condition is shown in Figure 26.
Increased supply due to increased garlic production also has an impact on increasing the
total income of garlic farmers. With scenario 6, the total income of farmers increased by
50.5 percent per year and in 2033 it was able to reach Rp 9914 billion. When compared to
the baseline conditions, the total income of farmers in scenario 6 has increased by 75.2
percent from the initial IDR 6.9 billion. When compared to the previous 5 scenarios, the
total income of farmers in scenario 6 is the highest.
f) Scenario 7: Combined scenarios 1, 2, and 3
Scenario 7 is a combination of scenario 1 (an increase in garlic area of 5000 ha/year),
scenario 2 (an increase in garlic productivity of 1.95 tons/ha) and scenario 3 (mandatory
implementation of garlic planting by importers of 4209 ha/year). Through scenario 7,
Indonesia's garlic supply is estimated to increase by 5.1 percent per year and in 2033 it will
reach 1,340,502 tons. Compared to the base condition, garlic supply has increased by 3.6
percent. Garlic supply in scenario 7 is higher when compared to scenarios 1, 2, 3,
Comparison of garlic supply in scenario 7 and the base condition can be seen in Figure 28.
The increase in garlic supply has not been proportional to the increase in demand,
causing the availability balance to experience a deficit. Since 2029, Indonesia's garlic
availability has experienced a deficit of 51,178 tons and in 2033 it reached 758,915 tons.
When compared to the previous 6 scenarios, the deficit of garlic availability in scenario 7 is
the highest. The development of Indonesia's garlic availability balance is shown in Table 26.
The increase in garlic supply is due to increased production. In 2033, garlic production
is estimated to reach 419,310 tons with an increase of 26 percent per year. This is an increase
of 61 percent compared to the base condition. This increase in production is due to an
increase in area, an increase in productivity, and an increase in the realization of mandatory
garlic planting by importers. Based on the predetermined production target of 914,425 tons,
it has not been achieved and the percentage of achievement is 45.8 percent. When compared
to the previous scenario, garlic production in scenario 7 is higher than scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 5.
The increase in garlic supply has not been able to cover the increase in national garlic
demand. This causes a deficit in the availability balance. The availability of Indonesian
garlic since 2029 has a deficit of 64,094 tons until in 2033 it reaches 781,155 tons. Of the
total garlic supply, garlic supply is still dominated by imported garlic. Compared to the
previous scenario, based on the availability deficit in the final period of simulation in
scenario 8 is higher than scenario 7. However, based on the average decline in the analysis
period, the percentage in scenario 8 is higher than scenario 7. The percentage of production
to the supply of garlic at the end of the simulation period is as follows
31 percent. The development of Indonesia's garlic availability balance is in Table 27.
5.1.4 Scenario Result Comparison
To find out the best scenario in increasing the availability of garlic and domestic garlic
production so that it can be used as an option in preparing policy recommendations, a
comparison of each policy scenario is carried out. Based on the scenarios that have been run
previously, a comparison of the results of scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 in increasing the
availability of Indonesian garlic is shown in Figure 32.
Based on Figure 32, among the scenarios that have been applied, the best scenario in
increasing the availability of Indonesian garlic compared to other scenarios is scenario 7,
namely by implementing a policy of increasing the area through increasing the area and
mandatory planting by importers and increasing garlic productivity in order to increase
domestic garlic production. In addition, when compared to other scenarios, the performance
results of scenario 8 (combined scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4) also show a high enough availability
value and can be said to be sufficient to be the best scenario. Scenario 6 is the third best
scenario after scenarios 7 and 8. When viewed from the supply side, scenario 7 is also the
best scenario in increasing domestic garlic supply. Similar to availability, this is also
followed by scenarios 8 and 6. Meanwhile, among scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4, the best scenario
is scenario 7.
5.2 Policy Recommendation
The eight policy scenarios that have been simulated previously are efforts to increase
the availability of garlic in Indonesia. Based on the scenario simulation and sensitivity
analysis that has been carried out previously, the best scenario in achieving the target of
increasing the availability of Indonesian garlic in 2033 is the scenario carried out through
increasing the area of garlic, increasing productivity, and implementing mandatory garlic
planting by importers. Based on this scenario, the largest garlic production and garlic supply
are obtained compared to other scenarios at the end of the simulation year. The following are
policy recommendations regarding the supply and demand of Indonesian garlic.
a) Increased garlic production
Increasing Indonesia's garlic production can be done through increasing the area and
productivity of garlic. Based on the analysis According to the sensitivity that has been
conducted on the Indonesian garlic supply and demand model, the parameter of additional
area is the most sensitive parameter to garlic production. Therefore, an additional area
program can increase production more than an increase in productivity.
Increasing the area of garlic through a mandatory planting program by importers
requires additional policies in the form of mandatory harvesting and stricter monitoring. The
mandatory harvest policy is needed so that the planted garlic can be marketed or absorbed
by importers. Regular monitoring and evaluation is needed for importers of RIPH recipients
to find out the reality in the field regarding the realization of mandatory planting. For the
realization of planting from this program based on the Directorate General of Horticulture
(2022) since 2017 has never reached 100 percent. Therefore, the government needs to better
monitor the implementation of this mandatory planting. One of the causes of the low
realization of mandatory garlic planting is the change in the MOA that regulates this matter.
In MOA 38/2017, garlic importers need to fulfill the initial planting requirements as a
condition for the issuance of RIPH. Meanwhile, in MOA 46 of 2019 this requirement is
removed so that importers do not need to plant garlic first to be able to obtain RIPH.
Therefore, it is necessary to amend MOA 46/2019 by restoring the provision of initial
planting of garlic as a condition for issuing RIPH, so that the seeds produced can be
absorbed by importers who will apply for garlic RIPH (MOA 2022d). In addition, the
sanctions given to importers who do not fulfill their obligations in planting garlic have also
changed. In MOA 38/2017, the sanction given to importers who do not perform their
obligations is to be blacklisted from RIPH approval for 3 consecutive years. While in 2019,
this rule was changed to be blacklisted in the following year. The rules regarding this sanction
must be emphasized and tightened again.
The program to increase the area of garlic itself can be done through various programs
and policies, including through food estate programs, garlic and the development of garlic
villages. The policy recommendation for the food estate program is to renew the location of
garlic planting (other than in Humbahas), because the soil conditions in Humbahas are not
suitable for planting garlic, making the results less than optimal. The food estate program is
a strategic commodity area development program on a large scale and for garlic
commodities located in North Sumatra Province, namely in Humbahas Regency (Humbang
Hasundutan). The expansion of new planting areas for strategic commodities, especially
shallots, garlic and red chilies, which are prioritized to meet the needs of areas that are still
in deficit, is carried out in North Sumatra (Ministry of Agriculture 2019). The area of the
garlic area in the food estate program in 2020 is 55 ha. The development of the garlic area is
facilitated with production facilities (quality seeds, fertilizers, mulch, yellow ligature, etc.) in
adequate quantities (MOA 2021b). Garlic village development is part of the horticultural
village development program. This program is themed one village one commodity with a
minimum land area of 10 ha for strategic commodities including garlic. According to MOA
(2022d), garlic villages in 2021 have an area of 1245 ha spread across 75 villages throughout
Indonesia. If the food estate program and garlic villages run well, in the long run it will
greatly affect national garlic production. It is hoped that the government can expand the
location of food estates and garlic villages in locations that have not been touched and have
climatic and weather conditions suitable for planting garlic considering that the area of
agricultural land available for garlic commodities is 600 thousand ha (Pusdatin 2019).
The program to increase garlic productivity can be realized through subsidized
superior seed assistance and agricultural machinery technology. The use of superior garlic
seeds greatly affects onion production
white. It is hoped that farmers can obtain garlic seeds that can produce garlic with large
bulbs and high productivity. Superior seeds that are resistant to pest attacks are also very
necessary because the problems experienced by garlic farmers include pest attacks, namely
white fungal diseases that can spread quickly, which greatly affects farmers' garlic
cultivation. So assistance is needed in the form of subsidized fungal repellent pesticides so
that garlic farming is not disrupted. In addition, it is necessary to implement technical
guidance to garlic farmers so that they can maximize their garlic farms and can produce high
quality garlic so that the selling power is also high. The government must also be more
vigorous in socializing the use of technology to garlic farmers. Based on Pusdatin (2020),
the utilization of technology by garlic farmers is still low. Until now, the assistance received
by garlic farmers is in the form of fertilizer subsidies.
b) Increased farmer income
Production is very influential in increasing the income of garlic farmers. In addition to
increasing production, increasing farmers' income can be done through the absorption of
local garlic by the government. This is because some farmers are afraid to plant garlic
because they cannot compete with imported garlic. Based on interviews conducted, local
garlic has not been able to be absorbed by the market properly, especially when garlic
production is abundant. Therefore, it is necessary to guarantee the absorption of local garlic
production by the government so that local garlic production can be absorbed properly. In
addition, increasing the income of garlic farmers can also be done through assistance in
providing storage space for garlic crops that have good standards. Garlic harvest storage
space greatly affects the quality of the garlic. If stored in a room with good temperature and
conditions, the garlic does not spoil quickly so that when it is distributed to consumers the
price does not decrease significantly. This can be done by using a Control Atmosphere
Storage (CAS) machine or controlled atmosphere that can maintain the quality of garlic for
up to 6 months.
CONCLUSIONS
Based on the analysis that has been carried out, the following conclusions are obtained.
1. The Indonesian garlic supply and demand model in the baseline condition is still unable to
meet the predetermined production targets so that policy scenario simulations are carried out
and scenario 7 is obtained (increasing the area, productivity, and mandatory planting
together) as the best scenario.
2. Sensitive variables that affect the availability of Indonesian garlic in order are mandatory
planting policies, area, import tariffs, and productivity with sensitivity values of 4.7 percent,
2.8 percent, 1.7 percent, and 1.2 percent, respectively.
3. Policy recommendations formulated include: For efforts to increase production: a)
Optimizing the supervision of the realization of mandatory planting and procurement of
mandatory harvest policies, b) Expansion of garlic land areas in suitable locations, c)
Providing subsidized assistance for superior seeds, OPT control, and alsintan to farmers. For
efforts to increase farmers' income a) Provision of guaranteed absorption of local garlic
production, b) Provision of good quality harvest storage space.
