Chapter 2: Empirical Study on Natural Resource Rents and Civil War
Abstract
This chapter examines differences in civil war involvement as a function of one's access to various forms
of natural resource rents with a focus on rents gotten from rivals and the effects of technology on these
rents. According to the World Bank and Lujala (2010), and through the use of econometric coefficients,
this paper examines the impact of hydrocarbon, mineral, coal, and forest rents on civil wars. The results
suggest that hydrocarbon and forest rents are likely to raise the risk of civil war, but mineral rents are
likely to reduce it, and for coal rents, no such impact has been found. Furthermore, the chapter also
looks at how these effects can be enhanced or reduced by technology especially in regard to the onshore
and offshore extraction technologies. The importance of this can be seen in this paper's ability to provide
a refined understanding of how civil conflict is affected by the natural resource rent and technology
factors across different types of resources. Thus, by analyzing these relationships, the chapter
contributes to the on-going debate about resource-based conflict and offers a useful understanding of
the circumstances that can either increase or decrease civil unrest stemming from the rents.
Objective
The primary objective of this study is to investigate the impact of different types of natural resource
rents on civil war involvement, considering both the rents generated by rivals and the role of technology
in these dynamics. We aim to address the following key questions:
1. What type of rent is likely to create a civil war in my case?
2. What type of rent, when sold by rivals, leads to a civil war?
3. What type of rent brings in the most money and thus allows better financing of conflicts?
4. How does technology impact these dynamics?
Key Questions
Which type of rent may provoke a civil war in my case?
Objective: This paper aims to determine which natural resource rents, hydrocarbons, minerals, coal, or
forests, are likely to lead to civil war, focusing on the case under study.
Key Points to Consider:
Historical Context: Review previous examples of civil wars in similar circumstances in order to find some
similarities or linkages.
Resource Dependency: Examine the degree of economy reliance on each of the types of rent.
Geopolitical Factors: Finally, one needs to discuss the geopolitical contexts and how the control over
these resources impacts political power.
Ethnic and Social Tensions: Consider the effects of ethnic and social differences in relation to the areas
that are rich in resources and possibly influence conflicts.
Which type of rent becomes a cause of a civil war when it is sold by the rivals?
Objective: Exploring the effects of rival-generated rents on civil war, we consider which of them
increases a conflict’s propensity when controlled and sold by rivals.
Key Points to Consider:
Rival Factions: The subject of discussion will be the rival groups that are involved in the sale of natural
resources and their profile.
Revenue Streams: Explain how revenue received from various rents, such as hydrocarbon, minerals, coal,
or forests, benefits competing factions.
Conflict Drivers: Identify which rents offer the funds required by competitors for continual aggravation
and escalation of clashes.
Market Dynamics: Research on the global market for these rents, relating to variations in the price and
demand that cause changes in conflict.
Which kind of rent generates more revenues and, therefore, can provide sounder funding for the
conflicts?
Objective: This question seeks to find out the fortunes provided by different forms of rents in funding
and continuation of the conflicts.
Key Points to Consider:
Economic Analysis: Explain how the revenue potential may vary from one natural resource to the other.
Conflict Financing: Analyze how various rents are applied to buy arms, hire soldiers and to support a
military campaign.
Profit Margins: Extracting and marketing each kind of resource determines the profitability.
Case Studies: Overview of other cases to show how natural resource rents were used to fund wars.
In what way do these dynamics differ or are influenced by the usage of technology?
Objective: Specifically, we examine the connection between various technologies with regard to
extracting and regulating natural resources and their influences on conflict processes.
Key Points to Consider:
Extraction Technologies: Look at the ways extraction technologies make the process easier and
profitable in the current world.
Surveillance and Control: Examining on how technology is adopted in the monitoring and controlling of
resource-rich regions.
Weaponization: Discuss the impact of technological improvements on the classes of tools employed in
combating events and their efficiency.
Communication and Coordination: Investigate the effects of advancing technology on the
communication, coordination and mobilization of people and assets by the factions on the cost.
Specifications
Types of Rents
1. Hydrocarbons (oil and gas)
2. Minerals
3. Coal
4. Forests
Empirical Results
1. Hydrocarbon rents (gas + oil): Significant and positive impact on the likelihood of civil war.
2. Forest rents: Significant and positive impact on the likelihood of civil war.
3. Mineral rents: Significant and negative impact on the likelihood of civil war.
4. Coal rents: Not significant.
Hypotheses
1. Hydrocarbon and forest rents have a significant positive impact on the likelihood of civil war.
2. Mineral rents have a significant negative impact on the likelihood of civil war.
3. Coal rents do not have a significant impact on the likelihood of civil war.
4. Rents that generate the most financial windfalls (e.g., hydrocarbons) have a higher impact on
financing and sustaining conflicts.
Theoretical Framework
Literature Review
Different research findings have established that there exists a clear link between the country's
endowment to natural resources and civil war, both in terms of likelihood and duration. Buonanno et al.
(2015), Caselli, Morelli, and Rohner (2015), and Esteban, Morelli, and Rohner (2015) studies explain the
effects of natural resources in different types of violence such as civil wars, organized crimes, inter–state
wars, and mass killings. These works indicate that the availability of lucrative natural resources leads
different groups to fight over these commodities. This competition only tends to prolong conflicts which
are already raging and intensify them. The money that flows from natural resources can fund rebels.
Thus, the rebels may be prepared for long-term struggles against a state's military. Also, the control of
these resources leads to such substantial benefits as creating a fund for development and getting a
strategic advantage over competitors, which is also dangerous for peace in different regions. Thus, the
causality between natural resources and civil war is established and sheds light on the relationship
between economic gains and the use of violence.
Analytical Framework
The concept used for analysis assumes that rents from capital-intensive extractive industries like
hydrocarbons and forests have a grander influence on the probability of war owing to the large sums of
money. It also splits the impacts of hydrocarbon, mineral, and forest rents into categories that may affect
the patterns of civil war. For instance, hydrocarbon rents elevate the prospect of conflict because they
are valuable and easily convertible sources of funds. However, what can be said concerning the mineral
rents is that they might not be the same in terms of their effects on the area as well as the sort of
minerals produced. It also incorporates the use of technology in shaping the armed conflict in regard to
onshore and offshore extraction. Technological developments have the degrees of freedom of flipping
balances of power in favour of the side providing the extraction or against it by offering new tactics to
control or hinder extraction processes. This part of the framework stresses how there is a co-
dependency between technology changes and conflict characteristics, admitting that technological
advancement and resources equally have to be accounted for to assess the probability of a civil war in a
country comprehensively.
Empirical Evidence
Empirical evidence is drawn from World Bank data on natural resources and Lujala's (2010) data on
offshore and onshore extraction, particularly from "The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel
Access to Natural Resources. There is an attempt made to theoretically and empirically establish the link
between the natural resource rents, technology, and armed conflict and rebel access to them. Such
methods assist in comparing conflict risk and intensity levels affecting a state in relation to various types
of rent from natural resources, passing nuanced conclusions on the role of natural resources in
producing violence. The study also reveals that the impact of resource rents on the nature and intensity
of conflicts varies depending on the kind of resource rents, which are likely to generate long and vicious
conflicts in this case. This was evident in the social resources where difference was observed, thus
suggesting that the type of resource should also be considered in conflict analysis. First of all, integrating
technological factors in the established context enhances the understanding of how technology may
transform the prospective threats and characteristics of disputes over natural resources.
Focus on Technology
The coverage of technology makes an analysis of how the advancements in extraction and control affect
conflict in how the onshore and offshore technologies differ. New technologies can introduce sweeter
spots in resource extraction and, therefore either contribute to or diminish the incidence and severity of
conflicts. For example, the introduction of new technologies in extraction may expose new resources
that previously could not be used, hence changing the nature of strategic importance and perhaps
adding to conflict proneness or probabilities. Equally, technological developments in the control systems
can shift the degree to which the various groups are able to exercise control over the resources and
hence, alter the relations of conflict. The synthesized findings of technology's impact publications
compose the body of knowledge about technology on both resource extraction and conflict
management and escalation. It also affords a holistic understanding of how conflicts, as well as their
resolution regarding natural resources, are made better as well as worse by technology. Compared with a
traditional approach, the inclusion of technology helps elaborate the processes in which natural
resources are involved in violent conflict and identify potential targets for intervention to prevent
resource-fueled conflicts.
Consensus in Literature
Several studies which comprise the analysis of the literature point to the fact that higher rents from
natural resources mean a higher probability of participating in a civil war situation. Similarly, Buonanno
et al. (2015) have also grouped with this view, pointing to the fact that natural resource rents enhance
the possibility of civil war by offering financial lures to warring factions. The presence of adequate source
of finance from natural resources ensures that costs of waging warfare by rebel groups are provided
hence embarking on long term struggles is feasible. Third, desire for control over imperative resources
results in tougher and longer battles since these are strategic assets, and also amplifies the tendencies of
civil war. Analyzing author citations, it can be stated that various types of natural resources at the local
level affect both risk and duration of civil wars. This element of the impact of natural resources is also
evident in empirical studies that show the relation between natural resources and forms of violence,
such as organized crime, inter- state wars, and civilire murders. This consensus shows how important
natural resource could be in the conflict sustainability when it come to violent conflicts and that proper
natural resources management could be critical in reducing the possibility of civil war and other form of
violence.
