business management dissertation

Name: Yichen Fei

Student id: 19711017

Degree: Postgraduate

Allocated Supervisor: Kevin Burt

1.  Proposed Title:  Expecting changes in the economic statistics by the outbreak of COVID-19

2. Introduction

Whereas there is still no means of precisely telling specific damage to the economy from the Covid-19 Pandemic shall be; there remains a pervasive consensus amongst economists that it shall have austere adversarial effects on the worldwide economy(Duffin, 2020). Initial approximations forecasted that in case Covid-19 became a worldwide epidemic, many main economies shall lose at minimum 2.40% of the GDP value over the year 2020, making economists even lower the 2020 forecast of worldwide economic growth down to 2.4% from about 3.00%(Duffin, 2020). To place this figure in perspective, the global GDP stood estimated at 86.60 USD trillion in lost output(Duffin, 2020). Nonetheless, such a forecast stood made before the Covid-19 being a global epidemic, and prior to widespread restrictions implementation on social contract to halt the Covid-19 spread. Since that point, global stock markets have severely suffered dramatic plunges because of the Covid-19 Pandemic(Duffin, 2020) and Dow Jones reported its all-time biggest single-day plunge of nearly 3000-points on 2020/03/16-thereby beating its past record of 2300 points which stood set solely 4 days before(Rudden, 2020).

The economic injury resulting from the Covid-19 epidemic is hugely propelled by a plunge in demand, implying that there remain no customers to buy the services and goods obtainable in the worldwide economy. Such a dynamic might precisely be viewed in the significantly affected industry like tourism and travel(Lock, 2020). Various countries imposed travel restrictions to slow the Covid-19 Pandemic spread which means that several individuals are unable to purchase flights for business and holiday trips(Lock, 2020). Such a decrease in consumer demand triggers airlines to lose forecasted revenue, implying they subsequently need to reduce their expenses by lowering the number of flights they are operating(Mazareanu, 2020). Without assistance from the government, ultimately, airlines shall further require lowering lay-off staff to additionally reduce costs. This very dynamic applies to additional industries, for instance, with plunging demand for oil(Sönnichsen, 2020), alongside novel cars(Wagner, 2020), as every day commutes, holidays and social events remain no longer feasible(Duffin, 2020).

Covid-19 Pandemic has thus resulted in a crisis that highpoints the need for immediate action to cushion the economic and health penalties, safeguard susceptible populace, and set the phase for permanent recoveries. For developing economies and emerging markets, several of which experience daunting susceptibilities, it remains vital to strengthen the public health systems, tackle the challenges posed by informalities, and implement desirable reforms which shall back sustainable and strong growth once the health crisis being witnessed presently abates(THE WORLD BANK, 2020). It is against this backdrop that this paper is of great interest to me since it will help me unearth the magnitude and the size of the global economic effects of Covid-19 Pandemic in order to suggest operative mechanisms and ways to strengthen the public health systems, tackle the challenges inflicted by informalities, and implement desirable reforms which shall reinforce sustainable and strong growth once the health crisis being witnessed presently subsides. The aim of this study is, therefore, to determine the economic impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic in a global perspective and come up with best ways and mechanisms through which to reinforce the public health systems, tackle the contests posed by informalities, and install desirable restructurings which shall back sustainable and strong growth when the health crisis being witnessed presently subsides.

3.  Rationale and Literature Review

The Pandemic has substantially blowout with upsetting pace, infecting millions as well as rendering economic activities to near-halt as economies implemented movement restrictions to stop the virus’ spread(THE WORLD BANK, 2020). While health alongside human toll surges, the injury to the economy is now apparent and denotes the biggest economic shudder the global has encountered in decades(THE WORLD BANK, 2020). The Global Economic Prospects of June 2020 highlights both the near-term and immediate outlook for the Covid-19 Pandemic impact and the long-run damage the Covid-19 epidemic has dealt with the growth prospects(THE WORLD BANK, 2020). The baseline projections envisage a 5.20% shrinkage in worldwide GDP in the year 2020, utilizing market rate weights-the deepest global recession in many decades, notwithstanding the amazing governments' determinations to combat the slump with monetary and fiscal policy support(THE WORLD BANK, 2020). Over the long-run, the bottomless recessions activated by the Covid-9 Pandemic remain anticipated to leave permanent scars via lesser investment, human capital erosion via lost work as well as schooling, and global supply linkages and trade fragmentation(THE WORLD BANK, 2020).

The Covid-19 Pandemic is anticipated to plunge several economies into recession in 2020 and early 2021, with per capita income significantly contracting in the biggest proportion of economies globally since the year 1870. Developed economies remain forecasted to shrink 7%(THE WORLD BANK, 2020). Such a weakness shall spill over to the emerging market alongside developing economies outlook, who remains forecast to shrink by 2.5% while coping with their individual domestic outlook of the Covid-19 Pandemic(THE WORLD BANK, 2020). This would ultimately denote the weakest showing by this cohort of economies in at a minimum, 60 years(THE WORLD BANK, 2020)

Despite the apparent dangers and threats to the global economy arising from Covid-19, little, if no empirical studies have been put in place to determine with certainty the magnitude of this crisis and come up with effective ways to cushion the pandemic's health as well as economic aftermaths, safeguard the susceptible populations as well as set the stage towards a lasting recovery. It is based on this backdrop that the present study aims at undertaking an original primary study to determine the economic impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic and suggests evidence-based interventions to cushion the economy once the pandemic abates. This present study will be one of its kind since no other empirical study has been published focusing on determining the economic effects and how to cushion the economy upon the abatement of the Pandemic. Comment by Kevin Burt: A very topical subject which no doubt will provide an interesting basis for this research. However, I think it is important, but you establish at least four specific research objectives. What I mean is something like…evaluate the impact of Covid19 upon small to medium enterprise. Determine how the impacts of Covid19 maybe mitigated? establish the potential economic effect caused to an economy by Covid19....

4.  Methodology

Primary and secondary research will be used in this study. The methodology to be adopted will be a mixed qualitative and quantitative study. This study aims at using a survey and focus group. The survey will be used to collect the quantitative data while qualitative data will be gathered using a focus group. Both secondary and primary sources will be used to collect data. Comment by Kevin Burt: Will you be surveying individuals or organisations?

The primary research is chosen for this study because it will lead to the collection of extremely customized and particular information hence helping me probe the deeper economic effects of Covid-19. It will also help me have a tailor-made approach since I will be able to control the procedure as well as customize it according to the objectives of this study(Research Optimus, nd). It will also help me look into targeted problem areas by streamlining the research method to fit the study interest and restrict to this scope. Survey design is chosen because it is best placed to collect the quantitative data and the fact that I am studying something specific (economic effects of Covid-19)(Research Optimus, nd). Comment by Kevin Burt: Please identify this tailor made approach. Comment by Kevin Burt: Who will you be surveying? How do you intend to interpret the data retrieved? What are the limitations of your research approach?

The focus design is also used since it will help me target a given group and best when collecting qualitative data. Moreover, conducting a focus group after the survey will provide me with in-depth insight into the outcomes drawn from the study(Research Optimus, nd).

The secondary data will be collected from websites like (The World Bank, The IMF, and Statista). These sources are justified to collect the data about the economic impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic mainly because they have studied the pandemic effects and are credible sources that will offer reliable and credible information that will help me develop my study. From these websites, I will be able to collect such types of data as effects of Covid-19 on GDP, Per capita income, unemployment rates, employment rates, recession, demands, supply and purchases, output, and productivity growth, oil sales. Such qualitative data will include desirable reforms to bolster long-run growth prospects and the effects of the Pandemic on tourism and travel.

5. References

References Duffin, E. (2020, September 21). Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy - Statistics & Facts. Statista.com, 1-4. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/topics/6139/covid-19-impact-on-the-global-economy/ Lock, S. (2020, October 20 ). Global change in travel and tourism revenue due to COVID-19 2019-2020. Statista.com, 1-5. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1103426/covid-19-revenue-travel-tourism-industry-forecast Mazareanu, E. (2020, October 20). Year-on-year change of weekly flight frequency of global airlines from January 6 to October 19, 2020, by country. Statista.com, 1-5. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104036/novel-coronavirus-weekly-flights-change-airlines-region/ Research Optimus. (nd). Primary Market Research Methods. researchoptimus.com, 1-3. Retrieved from https://www.researchoptimus.com/article/primary-research-methods.php Rudden, J. (2020, October 8). Weekly development of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index from January 2020 to October 2020. Statista.com, 1-4. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104278/weekly-performance-of-djia-index/ Sönnichsen, N. (2020, April 24). Projected global oil demand volume following the impact of Covid-19 by a quarter in 2020. Statista.com, 1-5. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/332291/global-oil-demand-outlook-following-covid-19/ THE WORLD BANK. (2020, June). Global Economic Prospects. worldbank.org, 1-8. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects THE WORLD BANK. (2020, June 8). The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World. WORLD BANK, 1-4. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-changed-world Wagner, I. (2020, March 25). Estimated impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic on the global auto industry's growth of gross value added in 2020, by scenario. Statista.com, 1-5. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104015/worldwide-auto-industry-gross-value-added-growth-covid-19/

6. Chapter Outline:

The final dissertation will have five chapters and reference lists and appendices. The chapter 1 will encompass introduction, context, and research objectives. Chapter 2 will entail a critical literature review and chapter 3 will be methodology. The chapter 4 will cover findings and data analysis while chapter 5 will contain discussion, conclusion, and recommendations.

7. Plan or schedule of work

8. Dates of Agreed Meetings with Supervisor:

Each meeting must be supported with a Supervision Log Entry on Blackboard, within 2 hours of the meeting taking place.

9. Ethics and PRME.

The ethical issue linked to my research includes informed consent, beneficence-do not harm, confidentiality & anonymity respect, privacy respect, susceptible group of individuals, and skills of the researcher(Fouka, G., & Mantzorou, M., 2011). I will ensure that I get written informed consent from my participants. I will also ensure that I guarantee privacy and confidentiality and only use the information given for sanctioned purposes. I will also ensure that I never harm any of my participants by putting them at risk of contracting Covid-19 during my focus group and surveys. Comment by Kevin Burt: Revisit the Harvard referencing guide…remove initials.

10: Signature to declare this is your own work:

Student: Yichen Fei