Financial Statement Memo (6 hours due)
Dashboard
| Premium | 0.00% | Average change in water consumption | Note- | |||||||||||
| STATE - ARIZONA | $ (305,393,284) | -20% | -10% | 0% | 10% | 20% | *effected by per capita income | |||||||
| COUNTY - MARICOPA | 3% | $ (56,380,298) | $ (63,427,836) | $ (70,475,373) | $ (99,494,591) | $ (134,322,185) | **effected by inflation | |||||||
| 5% | $ (93,967,164) | $ (105,713,060) | $ (117,458,955) | $ (165,824,319) | $ (223,870,308) | |||||||||
| Average change in water consumption | 7% | $ (131,554,030) | $ (147,998,284) | $ (164,442,537) | $ (232,154,047) | $ (313,418,431) | ||||||||
| Change in Water Rates | 9% | $ (169,140,895) | $ (190,283,507) | $ (211,426,120) | $ (298,483,774) | $ (402,966,554) | Recommendation for Maricopa: | |||||||
| Change in Poverty Rate* | 11% | $ (206,727,761) | $ (232,568,731) | $ (258,409,702) | $ (364,813,502) | $ (492,514,677) | Scenarios in orange indicate acceptable premiums/NPV values. These are less than the management suggested premium values. WTRG should proceed with acquisitions based on acceptable range as indicated in orange. | |||||||
| Maintenance costs as % of revenue** | 13% | $ (244,314,626) | $ (274,853,955) | $ (305,393,284) | $ (431,143,230) | $ (582,062,800) | ||||||||
| Yearly Inflation rate | 15% | $ (281,901,492) | $ (317,139,179) | $ (352,376,866) | $ (497,472,957) | $ (671,610,924) | ||||||||
| Yearly Per capita income change | 4.32% | 17% | $ (319,488,358) | $ (359,424,403) | $ (399,360,448) | $ (563,802,685) | $ (761,159,047) | |||||||
| (recommended : 4.32%) | 19% | $ (357,075,223) | $ (401,709,627) | $ (446,344,030) | $ (630,132,412) | $ (850,707,170) | ||||||||
| Premium | 13% | 21% | $ (394,662,089) | $ (443,994,851) | $ (493,327,612) | $ (696,462,140) | $ (940,255,293) | |||||||
| Acquistion Cost | $2,349,179,107 | 23% | $ (432,248,954) | $ (486,280,074) | $ (540,311,195) | $ (762,791,868) | $ (1,029,803,416) | |||||||
| NPV | ($305,393,284) | 25% | $ (469,835,820) | $ (528,565,298) | $ (587,294,777) | $ (829,121,595) | $ (1,119,351,539) | |||||||
| 27% | $ (507,422,685) | $ (570,850,522) | $ (634,278,359) | $ (895,451,323) | $ (1,208,899,662) | |||||||||
| Premium | $ (0) | Average change in water consumption | Recommendation for San Francisco: | |||||||||||
| STATE - CALIFORNIA | $ (341,392,569) | -20% | -10% | 0% | 10% | 20% | Scenarios in pink indicate acceptable premiums/NPV values. These are less than the management suggested premium values. WTRG should proceed with acquisitions based on acceptable range as indicated in pink. | |||||||
| COUNTY - SAN FRANCISCO | 3% | $ (57,155,061) | $ (63,336,434) | $ (69,517,808) | $ (75,699,181) | $ (81,880,555) | ||||||||
| 5% | $ (95,258,434) | $ (105,560,724) | $ (115,863,013) | $ (126,165,302) | $ (136,467,591) | |||||||||
| Average change in water consumption | 7% | $ (133,361,808) | $ (147,785,013) | $ (162,208,218) | $ (176,631,423) | $ (191,054,628) | ||||||||
| Change in Water Rates | 9% | $ (171,465,182) | $ (190,009,303) | $ (208,553,423) | $ (227,097,544) | $ (245,641,664) | ||||||||
| Change in Poverty Rate* | 11% | $ (209,568,556) | $ (232,233,592) | $ (254,898,628) | $ (277,563,664) | $ (300,228,701) | ||||||||
| Maintenance costs as % of revenue** | 13% | $ (247,671,930) | $ (274,457,881) | $ (301,243,833) | $ (328,029,785) | $ (354,815,737) | ||||||||
| Yearly Inflation rate | 15% | $ (285,775,303) | $ (316,682,171) | $ (347,589,038) | $ (378,495,906) | $ (409,402,773) | ||||||||
| Yearly Per capita income change | 8.47% | 17% | $ (323,878,677) | $ (358,906,460) | $ (393,934,244) | $ (428,962,027) | $ (463,989,810) | |||||||
| (recommended : 8.47%) | 19% | $ (361,982,051) | $ (401,130,750) | $ (440,279,449) | $ (479,428,148) | $ (518,576,846) | ||||||||
| Premium | 17% | 21% | $ (400,085,425) | $ (443,355,039) | $ (486,624,654) | $ (529,894,268) | $ (573,163,883) | |||||||
| Acquistion Cost | $2,008,191,581 | 23% | $ (438,188,798) | $ (485,579,329) | $ (532,969,859) | $ (580,360,389) | $ (627,750,919) | |||||||
| NPV | ($341,392,569) | 25% | $ (476,292,172) | $ (527,803,618) | $ (579,315,064) | $ (630,826,510) | $ (682,337,956) | |||||||
| 27% | $ (514,395,546) | $ (570,027,908) | $ (625,660,269) | $ (681,292,631) | $ (736,924,992) |
Reset San Francisco
Reset Maricopa
Sheet1
| Arizona Maricopa | California Sanfransisco | |||||||||||
| Av.consum | Maint $ | Inflation | Poverty rate | Water rates | Av.consum | Maint $ | Inflation | Poverty rate | Water rates | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | |||
| 1 | -20% | 10% | 0% | -20.00% | -10.00% | 1 | -20% | 10% | 0% | -18.31% | -10.00% | |
| 2 | -15% | 15% | 1% | -15.00% | -5.00% | 2 | -15% | 15% | 1% | -13.73% | -5.00% | |
| 3 | -10% | 20% | 1.50% | -10.00% | 0.00% | 3 | -10% | 20% | 1.50% | -9.15% | 0.00% | |
| 4 | -5% | 25% | 2% | -5.00% | 5.00% | 4 | -5% | 25% | 2% | -4.58% | 5.00% | |
| 5 | 0% | 30% | 2.50% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 5 | 0% | 30% | 2.50% | 0.00% | 10.00% | |
| 6 | 5% | 35% | 3% | 5.00% | 6 | 5% | 35% | 3% | 4.58% | |||
| 7 | 10% | 40% | 10.00% | 7 | 10% | 40% | 9.15% | |||||
| 8 | 15% | 15.00% | 8 | 15% | 13.73% | |||||||
| 9 | 20% | 20.00% | 9 | 20% | 18.31% | |||||||
| 0% | 10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -15% | 20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | |||
| FALSE | TRUE | |||||||||||
| 13% | $ (305,393,284) | |||||||||||
| 17% | $ (469,569,315) | |||||||||||
Graders Guide
| Grader's Guide | Location | Use in Workbook | How it improves efficiency | |
| Lookup | On sheet1 | Indentifes user's selected variables in dashboard & are used in FCF calculations | Helps comboboxes work and change variables for calculation | |
| Checkbox | On Dashboard | To select yearly per capita income change (separate for each county) | Helps include/exclude variable in calculation | |
| Comboboxes | On Dashboard | To select value drivers on the dashboard | Helps select variable ranges | |
| Macros( >5 steps) | On Dashboard | Reset variables in the dashboard (separate for each county) | Helps reset to original/base values | |
| Data Table | On Dashboard | Sensitivity of NPV to premium and per capita income change | Helps identify range of premiums | |
| Conditional Formatting | On Dashboard | Identifies companies acceptable NPVs based on baseline premium given by board | Helps identify acceptable premiums | |
| Data Validation | On Dashboard | Alerts user to enter a valid premium value in the dashboard | Helps set limitation on user inputs | |
| UDF (with loop) | In Proformas | Identifies signs of cash inflows and outflows appropriately to calculate NPV | Helps speed up calculations | |
ARIZONA
| STATE | ARIZONA | ||||||||||||||||||||
| COUNTY | MARICOPA | 94.69% | |||||||||||||||||||
| Population (in person) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
| Population | 3,825,191 | 3,875,065 | 3,948,225 | 4,019,019 | 4,095,508 | 4,175,049 | 4,258,603 | 4,329,580 | 4,410,824 | 4,498,504 | 4,587,928 | 4,679,129 | 4,772,143 | 4,867,006 | 4,963,755 | 5,062,427 | 5,163,060 | 5,265,694 | 5,370,368 | 5,477,122 | 5,585,999 |
| households | 1,530,076 | 1,550,026 | 1,579,290 | 1,607,608 | 1,638,203 | 1,670,020 | 1,703,441 | 1,731,832 | 1,764,330 | 1,799,402 | 1,835,171 | 1,871,652 | 1,908,857 | 1,946,802 | 1,985,502 | 2,024,971 | 2,065,224 | 2,106,277 | 2,148,147 | 2,190,849 | 2,234,400 |
| Population growth | 1.30% | 1.89% | 1.79% | 1.90% | 1.94% | 2.00% | 1.67% | 1.88% | |||||||||||||
| Above poverty | 1,289,854 | 1,306,672 | 1,331,341 | 1,355,213 | 1,381,005 | 1,407,827 | 1,436,001 | 1,459,934 | 1,487,330 | 1,516,896 | 1,547,049 | 1,577,802 | 1,609,167 | 1,641,154 | 1,673,778 | 1,707,050 | 1,740,984 | 1,775,592 | 1,810,888 | 1,846,886 | 1,883,599 |
| Below poverty | 240,222 | 243,354 | 247,949 | 252,394 | 257,198 | 262,193 | 267,440 | 271,898 | 277,000 | 282,506 | 288,122 | 293,849 | 299,691 | 305,648 | 311,724 | 317,920 | 324,240 | 330,686 | 337,259 | 343,963 | 350,801 |
| Total Consumption | 106,110,798,340 | 107,494,303,100 | 109,523,761,500 | 111,487,587,060 | 113,609,391,920 | 115,815,859,260 | 118,133,647,220 | 120,102,549,200 | 122,356,257,760 | 124,788,514,466 | 127,269,120,743 | 129,799,037,709 | 132,379,245,584 | 135,010,744,076 | 137,694,552,764 | 140,431,711,495 | 143,223,280,788 | 146,070,342,242 | 148,973,998,956 | 151,935,375,959 | 154,955,620,643 |
| Annual consumption per household | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 | 69,350 |
| Base consumption per household | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 |
| revenue per HH per year | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 |
| Annual revenue | 115,348,553 | 116,852,502 | 119,058,640 | 121,193,432 | 123,499,956 | 125,898,513 | 128,418,082 | 130,558,392 | 133,008,303 | 135,652,306 | 138,348,868 | 141,099,034 | 143,903,869 | 146,764,459 | 149,681,914 | 152,657,363 | 155,691,960 | 158,786,880 | 161,943,322 | 165,162,509 | 168,445,689 |
| Base consumption | 108,329,409,120 | 109,741,840,800 | 111,813,732,000 | 113,818,618,080 | 115,984,786,560 | 118,237,387,680 | 120,603,636,960 | 122,613,705,600 | 124,914,535,680 | ||||||||||||
| Base revenue from above poverty | 107,728,640 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Base revenue from below poverty | 10,031,671 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Water used above P/year | 14,312,224,480 | 36,247,079,005 | 36,931,412,378 | 37,593,614,357 | 38,309,086,955 | 39,053,107,742 | 39,834,665,843 | 40,498,579,590 | 41,258,530,117 | ||||||||||||
| Water used below P/year | 2,665,503,254 | 6,750,642,235 | 6,878,092,222 | 7,001,420,467 | 7,134,669,813 | 7,273,235,962 | 7,418,793,045 | 7,542,440,090 | 7,683,972,987 | ||||||||||||
| Sales above poverty | (250,365,384) | 643,624,474,078 | 655,775,900,318 | 667,534,348,503 | 680,238,701,178 | 693,449,972,290 | 707,327,778,032 | 719,116,621,393 | 732,610,750,335 | ||||||||||||
| Sales below poverty | (23,313,977) | 59,934,188,867 | 61,065,727,372 | 62,160,671,836 | 63,343,698,746 | 64,573,929,804 | 65,866,228,441 | 66,964,003,297 | 68,220,574,023 | ||||||||||||
| Total Sales | (273,679,361) | 703,558,662,945 | 716,841,627,690 | 729,695,020,339 | 743,582,399,924 | 758,023,902,094 | 773,194,006,473 | 786,080,624,690 | 800,831,324,358 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 | - 0 |
| Sales growth | -257174.07% | 1.89% | 1.79% | 1.90% | 1.94% | 2.00% | 1.67% | 1.88% | |||||||||||||
| Trend | 107158.48% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Population growth trend | 1.99% | 21.69% | |||||||||||||||||||
| Per capita personal income | 70800 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Discount | |||||||||||||||||
| $ 43,825 | $ 45,667 | $ 47,694 | 50% | ||||||||||||||||||
| rate | 4.20% | 4.44% | 4.67% | Persons per household | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| Average, trend | 4.32% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Water rates per household | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Base rate | $ 6.96 | per month | First 5,900 gallons | 5900 | 83.52 | 70800 | |||||||||||||||
| Volume rate | $ 4.65 | per 1,000 gallons | Afterwards | $ 93 | 20,000 | ||||||||||||||||
| Note: | Total water bill = base rate + volume rate | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Others | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Poverty Rate | 15.70% | 0.83% | |||||||||||||||||||
| Average water usage | 76 | gallons per person per day | 30.4 | per household per day | |||||||||||||||||
| Local tax | 2.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Original Poverty rate | 15.70% |
Pro Forma_Arizona
| Value Drivers | WTRG WACC calculation | ||||||||||
| Premium | 13.00% | ||||||||||
| Acquisition cost | $ 2,349,179,107 | Debt | Average value | $2,161,519,200 | |||||||
| Directly related to sales | Cost of debt | 4.66% | |||||||||
| Operating Expenses (excluding depreciation) | 43.57% | ||||||||||
| Operating Current Assets | 16.97% | Equity | # Shares outstanding | 220,758,719 | |||||||
| Operating Current Liabilities | 21.14% | Current price per share | $38.12 | ||||||||
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00% | <-- too high? Lower to 50% of past | Market value | $8,415,322,368 | |||||||
| Maintenance Costs | 10% | Cost of equity | 4.95% | ||||||||
| Not directly related to sales | Beta | 0.54 | |||||||||
| Depreciation Rate | 2.01% | Rf | 0.20% | ||||||||
| Interest Rate on Debt | 4.66% | Rm | 9.00% | ||||||||
| Interest Rate on ST Investments | 0.20% | <-- 1 Yr treasry bill rate (as of 3/20/2020) | |||||||||
| Dividend payout | 88.35% | https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield | WACC | 4.80% | |||||||
| Tax Rate | 9.24% | ||||||||||
| Long-term growth rate | 2% | ||||||||||
| k | 4.80% | ||||||||||
| WTRG Income statements | |||||||||||
| PERIOD ENDING | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| Sales | $ 141,099,033.93 | $ 143,903,868.58 | $ 146,764,459.09 | $ 149,681,913.79 | $ 152,657,363.07 | $ 155,691,959.76 | $ 158,786,879.63 | $ 161,943,321.81 | $ 165,162,509.27 | $ 168,445,689.28 | |
| Operating Expenses (excluding depreciation) | $ 61,478,179.73 | $ 62,700,273.64 | $ 63,946,659.90 | $ 65,217,822.43 | $ 66,514,253.73 | $ 67,836,456.13 | $ 69,184,941.90 | $ 70,560,233.53 | $ 71,962,863.86 | $ 73,393,376.36 | |
| Maintenance costs | $ 14,109,903.39 | $ 14,390,386.86 | $ 14,676,445.91 | $ 14,968,191.38 | $ 15,265,736.31 | $ 15,569,195.98 | $ 15,878,687.96 | $ 16,194,332.18 | $ 16,516,250.93 | $ 16,844,568.93 | |
| Depreciation | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | |
| Earnings Before Interest And Taxes | $ (12,795,019.42) | $ (11,492,762.14) | $ (10,164,616.95) | $ (8,810,070.24) | $ (7,428,597.20) | $ (6,019,662.58) | $ (4,582,720.47) | $ (3,117,214.13) | $ (1,622,575.76) | $ (98,226.23) | |
| Income Tax Expense | $ (1,182,028.40) | $ (1,061,723.38) | $ (939,026.78) | $ (813,891.16) | $ (686,268.04) | $ (556,107.96) | $ (423,360.49) | $ (287,974.21) | $ (149,896.66) | $ (9,074.33) | |
| Net Income | $ (11,612,991.02) | $ (10,431,038.76) | $ (9,225,590.17) | $ (7,996,179.08) | $ (6,742,329.17) | $ (5,463,554.62) | $ (4,159,359.97) | $ (2,829,239.92) | $ (1,472,679.10) | $ (89,151.91) | |
| Depreciation | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | $ 78,305,970.23 | |
| ONWC | $ (5,887,810.62) | $ (6,004,851.36) | $ (6,124,218.69) | $ (6,245,958.86) | $ (6,370,119.04) | $ (6,496,747.34) | $ (6,625,892.82) | $ (6,757,605.51) | $ (6,891,936.45) | $ (7,028,937.69) | |
| Change in ONWC | $ (5,887,810.62) | $ (117,040.74) | $ (119,367.33) | $ (121,740.17) | $ (124,160.18) | $ (126,628.30) | $ (129,145.48) | $ (131,712.69) | $ (134,330.94) | $ (137,001.24) | |
| CapEx | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | |
| FCF | $ 2,349,179,106.94 | $ 72,580,789.83 | $ 67,991,972.21 | $ 69,199,747.40 | $ 70,431,531.33 | $ 71,687,801.25 | $ 72,969,043.91 | $ 74,275,755.73 | $ 75,608,443.00 | $ 76,967,622.07 | $ 78,353,819.56 |
| Terminal value | $ 2,850,336,260.73 | ||||||||||
| Recommended acquisition cost | $2,349,179,106.94 | ||||||||||
| Premium | $305,393,283.90 | ||||||||||
| NPV | ($305,393,283.90) | ||||||||||
| Equity value | ERROR:#REF! | ||||||||||
| FPPS | ERROR:#REF! | ||||||||||
CALIFORNIA
| STATE | CALIFORNIA | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| COUNTY | SAN FRANCISCO | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Population (in person) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||||
| 805,550 | 815,677 | 829,027 | 839,841 | 851,116 | 863,836 | 872,795 | 879,166 | 883,305 | |||||||||||||
| Per capita personal income | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
| $ 114,697 | $ 121,778 | $ 130,696 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Growth | 6.17% | 7.32% | |||||||||||||||||||
| Average/Trend | 6.75% | 8.47% | |||||||||||||||||||
| Water rates per household | USD/gallon | Gallons | |||||||||||||||||||
| Base rate | $ 15.40 | per month | 168 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Volume rate | $ 7.81 | per ccf | First 4 ccf | $ 0.0104 | 35,904 | 374.88 | |||||||||||||||
| $ 10.01 | per ccf | Afterwards | $ 0.0134 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Note: | Total water bill = base rate plus volume rate | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 ccf = 748 gallons | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Others | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Poverty Rate | 10.10% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Average water usage | 41 | gallons per person per day | |||||||||||||||||||
| Local tax | 8.50% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Population (in person) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Year | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| Population | 805,550 | 815,677 | 829,027 | 839,841 | 851,116 | 863,836 | 872,795 | 879,166 | 883,305 | 888,486 | 893,698 | 898,940 | 904,213 | 909,516 | 914,851 | 920,218 | 925,615 | 931,045 | 936,506 | 941,999 | 947,524 |
| Population growth | 1.26% | 1.64% | 1.30% | 1.34% | 1.49% | 1.04% | 0.73% | 0.47% | |||||||||||||
| Trend | 0.59% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| rsquare | 63.09% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Households | 322,220 | 326,271 | 331,611 | 335,936 | 340,446 | 345,534 | 349,118 | 351,666 | 353,322 | 355,394 | 357,479 | 359,576 | 361,685 | 363,807 | 365,941 | 368,087 | 370,246 | 372,418 | 374,602 | 376,800 | 379,010 |
| Annual total usage | 10,246,797,388 | 10,375,615,359 | 10,545,430,697 | 10,682,987,480 | 10,826,408,299 | 10,988,209,879 | 11,102,170,599 | 11,183,211,312 | 11,235,860,426 | 11,301,766,074 | 11,368,058,301 | 11,434,739,375 | 11,501,811,577 | 11,569,277,201 | 11,637,138,555 | 11,705,397,961 | 11,774,057,752 | 11,843,120,277 | 11,912,587,900 | 11,982,462,995 | 12,052,747,953 |
| Ann. HH usage | 31,800.63 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.62 | 31,800.62 | 31,800.62 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.62 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.62 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.62 | 31,800.63 | 31,800.62 | 31,800.63 |
| Ann. Revenue/HH | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 | 487.97 |
| Ann. Revenue/HH below PL | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 | 243.98 |
| Ann. Total above PL | 141,352,275.65 | 143,129,290.73 | 145,471,855.29 | 147,369,420.32 | 149,347,878.40 | 151,579,894.97 | 153,151,957.58 | 154,269,896.07 | 154,996,178.82 | 155,905,332.47 | 156,819,818.89 | 157,739,669.38 | 158,664,915.39 | 159,595,588.57 | 160,531,720.76 | 161,473,343.97 | 162,420,490.42 | 163,373,192.49 | 164,331,482.79 | 165,295,394.08 | 166,264,959.35 |
| Ann. Total below PL | 7,940,255.75 | 8,040,076.95 | 8,171,667.07 | 8,278,259.98 | 8,389,396.95 | 8,514,777.19 | 8,603,085.49 | 8,665,884.04 | 8,706,681.90 | 8,757,752.27 | 8,809,122.20 | 8,860,793.44 | 8,912,767.77 | 8,965,046.97 | 9,017,632.81 | 9,070,527.11 | 9,123,731.66 | 9,177,248.30 | 9,231,078.84 | 9,285,225.14 | 9,339,689.04 |
| Ann. Total revenue | 149,292,531.40 | 151,169,367.69 | 153,643,522.35 | 155,647,680.30 | 157,737,275.35 | 160,094,672.16 | 161,755,043.07 | 162,935,780.11 | 163,702,860.72 | 164,663,084.73 | 165,628,941.09 | 166,600,462.82 | 167,577,683.16 | 168,560,635.54 | 169,549,353.57 | 170,543,871.08 | 171,544,222.08 | 172,550,440.79 | 173,562,561.63 | 174,580,619.22 | 175,604,648.39 |
Pro Forma_California
| Value Drivers | WTRG WACC calculation | ||||||||||
| Acquisition Cost | $2,008,191,580.61 | ||||||||||
| Premium | 17% | Debt | Average value | $2,161,519,200 | |||||||
| Directly related to sales | Cost of debt | 4.66% | |||||||||
| Operating Expenses (excluding depreciation) | 43.57% | ||||||||||
| Operating Current Assets | 16.97% | Equity | # Shares outstanding | 220,758,719 | |||||||
| Operating Current Liabilities | 21.14% | Current price per share | $38.12 | ||||||||
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00% | <-- too high? Lower to 50% of past | Market value | $8,415,322,368 | |||||||
| Maintenance Costs | 20% | Cost of equity | 4.95% | ||||||||
| Not directly related to sales | Beta | 0.54 | |||||||||
| Depreciation Rate | 2.01% | Rf | 0.20% | ||||||||
| Interest Rate on Debt | 4.66% | Rm | 9.00% | ||||||||
| Interest Rate on ST Investments | 0.20% | <-- 1 Yr treasry bill rate (as of 3/20/2020) | |||||||||
| Dividend payout | 88.35% | https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield | WACC | 4.74% | |||||||
| Tax Rate | 15.74% | ||||||||||
| Long-term growth rate | 2% | ||||||||||
| k | 4.74% | ||||||||||
| WTRG Income statements | |||||||||||
| PERIOD ENDING | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| Sales | $ 166,600,462.82 | $ 167,577,683.16 | $ 168,560,635.54 | $ 169,549,353.57 | $ 170,543,871.08 | $ 171,544,222.08 | $ 172,550,440.79 | $ 173,562,561.63 | $ 174,580,619.22 | $ 175,604,648.39 | |
| Operating Expenses (excluding depreciation) | $ 72,589,392.79 | $ 73,015,176.91 | $ 73,443,458.53 | $ 73,874,252.30 | $ 74,307,572.95 | $ 74,743,435.32 | $ 75,181,854.30 | $ 75,622,844.90 | $ 76,066,422.19 | $ 76,512,601.35 | |
| Maintenance costs | $ 33,320,092.56 | $ 33,515,536.63 | $ 33,712,127.11 | $ 33,909,870.71 | $ 34,108,774.22 | $ 34,308,844.42 | $ 34,510,088.16 | $ 34,712,512.33 | $ 34,916,123.84 | $ 35,120,929.68 | |
| Depreciation | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | |
| Earnings Before Interest And Taxes | $ (6,248,741.88) | $ (5,892,749.73) | $ (5,534,669.45) | $ (5,174,488.79) | $ (4,812,195.44) | $ (4,447,777.01) | $ (4,081,221.02) | $ (3,712,514.94) | $ (3,341,646.16) | $ (2,968,602.00) | |
| Income Tax Expense | $ (983,438.97) | $ (927,412.24) | $ (871,056.88) | $ (814,370.96) | $ (757,352.54) | $ (699,999.66) | $ (642,310.38) | $ (584,282.71) | $ (525,914.67) | $ (467,204.27) | |
| Net Income | $ (5,265,302.92) | $ (4,965,337.49) | $ (4,663,612.57) | $ (4,360,117.84) | $ (4,054,842.91) | $ (3,747,777.34) | $ (3,438,910.64) | $ (3,128,232.23) | $ (2,815,731.49) | $ (2,501,397.73) | |
| Depreciation | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | $ 66,939,719.35 | |
| ONWC | $ (6,951,939.69) | $ (6,992,717.35) | $ (7,033,734.19) | $ (7,074,991.63) | $ (7,116,491.07) | $ (7,158,233.93) | $ (7,200,221.64) | $ (7,242,455.63) | $ (7,284,937.36) | $ (7,327,668.26) | |
| Change in ONWC | $ (6,951,939.69) | $ (40,777.66) | $ (41,016.85) | $ (41,257.44) | $ (41,499.44) | $ (41,742.86) | $ (41,987.71) | $ (42,233.99) | $ (42,481.72) | $ (42,730.91) | |
| CapEx | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | |
| FCF | $2,008,191,580.61 | $ 68,626,356.12 | $ 62,015,159.52 | $ 62,317,123.63 | $ 62,620,858.95 | $ 62,926,375.88 | $ 63,233,684.87 | $ 63,542,796.42 | $ 63,853,721.12 | $ 64,166,469.59 | $ 64,481,052.53 |
| Terminal value | $ 2,398,603,094.95 | ||||||||||
| Recommended acquisition cost | $2,008,191,580.61 | ||||||||||
| Premium | $ 341,392,568.70 | ||||||||||
| NPV | ($341,392,568.70) | ||||||||||
Balance Sheet
| WTRG BALANCE SHEET | |||||||
| As of | Dec-19 | Dec-18 | Dec-17 | Dec-16 | Dec-15 | Dec-20 | Dec-50 |
| ASSETS | |||||||
| Current Assets | |||||||
| Cash and Cash Equivalents | $ 1,868,922,000 | $ 3,627,000 | $ 4,204,000 | $ 3,763,000 | $ 3,229,000 | ||
| Inventories | $ 18,379,000 | $ 15,844,000 | $ 14,361,000 | $ 12,961,000 | $ 12,414,000 | ||
| Trade and Other Receivables, Current | $ 107,620,000 | $ 101,225,000 | $ 98,596,000 | $ 97,394,000 | $ 99,146,000 | ||
| Other Current Assets | $ 17,817,000 | $ 26,476,000 | $ 14,085,000 | $ 14,532,000 | $ 13,581,000 | ||
| Total Current Assets | $ 2,012,738,000 | $ 147,172,000 | $ 131,246,000 | $ 128,650,000 | $ 128,370,000 | ||
| Long-term Investments | |||||||
| Net Property, Plant and Equipment | $ 6,345,790,000 | $ 5,930,326,000 | $ 5,399,860,000 | $ 5,001,615,000 | $ 4,688,925,000 | ||
| Other Non-Current Assets | $ 1,003,457,000 | $ 886,998,000 | $ 801,357,000 | $ 1,028,726,000 | $ 900,578,000 | ||
| Total Assets | $ 9,361,985,000 | $ 6,964,496,000 | $ 6,332,463,000 | $ 6,158,991,000 | $ 5,717,873,000 | ||
| LIABILITIES | |||||||
| Current Liabilities | |||||||
| Payables and Accrued Expenses, Current | $ 177,130,000 | $ 170,254,000 | $ 145,440,000 | $ 131,714,000 | $ 140,885,000 | ||
| Current Debt | $ 141,719,000 | $ 228,723,000 | $ 139,048,000 | $ 169,822,000 | $ 52,314,000 | ||
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 318,849,000 | $ 398,977,000 | $ 284,488,000 | $ 301,536,000 | $ 193,199,000 | ||
| Long Term Debt | $ 2,943,327,000 | $ 2,398,464,000 | $ 2,007,753,000 | $ 1,737,605,000 | $ 1,720,447,000 | ||
| Other Long Term Liabilities | $ 2,218,949,000 | $ 2,157,691,000 | $ 2,082,601,000 | $ 2,269,782,000 | $ 2,078,297,000 | ||
| Total Liabilities | $ 5,481,125,000 | $ 4,955,132,000 | $ 4,374,842,000 | $ 4,308,923,000 | $ 3,991,943,000 | ||
| STOCKHOLDER'S EQUITY | |||||||
| Common Stock | $ 34,233,000 | $ 14,741,000 | $ 17,070,000 | $ 19,042,000 | $ 21,597,000 | ||
| Retained Earnings | $ 1,210,072,000 | $ 1,174,245,000 | $ 1,133,416,000 | $ 1,033,513,000 | $ 930,748,000 | ||
| Capital Surplus | $ 2,636,555,000 | $ 820,378,000 | $ 807,135,000 | $ 797,513,000 | $ 773,585,000 | ||
| Total Stockholder Equity | $ 3,880,860,000 | $ 2,009,364,000 | $ 1,957,621,000 | $ 1,850,068,000 | $ 1,725,930,000 | ||
| Total Liabilities & Equities | $ 9,361,985,000 | $ 6,964,496,000 | $ 6,332,463,000 | $ 6,158,991,000 | $ 5,717,873,000 | ||
| Operating current assets | $ 143,816,000 | $ 143,545,000 | $ 127,042,000 | $ 124,887,000 | $ 125,141,000 | ||
| As a % of sales | 16.16% | 17.13% | 15.69% | 15.23% | 15.37% | ||
| Trend | 16.97% | ||||||
| Operating current liabilities | $ 177,130,000 | $ 170,254,000 | $ 145,440,000 | $ 131,714,000 | $ 140,885,000 | ||
| As a % of sales | 19.91% | 20.31% | 17.97% | 16.07% | 17.30% | ||
| Trend | 21.14% | ||||||
| Gross Property, Plant and Equipment | $ 7,648,469,000.00 | $ 7,003,993,000.00 | $ 6,509,117,000.00 | $ 6,088,011,000.00 | |||
| Depreciation rate | 1.92% | 1.95% | 2.04% | 2.11% | |||
| Average | 2.01% | ||||||
| Trend | 1.77% |
Income Statement
| WTRG INCOME STATEMENTS | ||||||
| PERIOD ENDING | Dec-19 | Dec-18 | Dec-17 | Dec-16 | Dec-15 | |
| Total Revenue | $ 889,692,000 | $ 838,091,000 | $ 809,525,000 | $ 819,875,000 | $ 814,204,000 | |
| Cost of Revenue | $ 333,102,000 | $ 308,478,000 | $ 282,253,000 | $ 297,184,000 | $ 309,310,000 | |
| Gross Profit | $ 556,590,000 | $ 529,613,000 | $ 527,272,000 | $ 522,691,000 | $ 504,894,000 | |
| Selling, General and Administrative Expenses | $ 59,955,000 | $ 59,762,000 | $ 56,628,000 | $ 56,385,000 | $ 55,057,000 | |
| Operating Income (Loss) | $ 496,635,000 | $ 469,851,000 | $ 470,644,000 | $ 466,306,000 | $ 449,837,000 | |
| Other Income/Expense | $ (156,476,000) | $ (146,673,000) | $ (136,724,000) | $ (133,008,000) | $ (128,737,000) | |
| Earnings Before Interest And Taxes | $ 340,159,000 | $ 323,178,000 | $ 333,920,000 | $ 333,298,000 | $ 321,100,000 | |
| Interest income (expense) | $ 128,633,000 | $ 144,859,000 | $ 77,268,000 | $ 78,138,000 | $ 104,348,000 | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 211,526,000 | $ 178,319,000 | $ 256,652,000 | $ 255,160,000 | $ 216,752,000 | |
| Income Tax Expense | $ (13,017,000) | $ (13,669,000) | $ 16,914,000 | $ 20,978,000 | $ 14,962,000 | |
| Net Income from Continuing Operations | $ 224,543,000 | $ 191,988,000 | $ 239,738,000 | $ 234,182,000 | $ 201,790,000 | |
| Number of common shares outstanding | 220,758,719 | 178,091,621 | 177,713,943 | 177,394,376 | 176,544,091 | |
| Annual sales growth | 6.16% | 3.53% | -1.26% | 0.70% | ||
| Trend | 7.55% | |||||
| Operating expenses (excluding depreciation) | $ 393,057,000 | $ 368,240,000 | $ 338,881,000 | $ 353,569,000 | $ 364,367,000 | |
| Slope | 0.55 | |||||
| Intercetp | $ (99,367,186.70) | |||||
| R2 | 0.83 | Too low value to accept Slope/Intercept as valid value drivers | ||||
| % of revenue | 44.18% | 43.94% | 41.86% | 43.12% | 44.75% | |
| Average | 43.57% | |||||
| Interest rate on debt | 4.50% | 6.07% | 3.81% | 4.25% | ||
| Average | 4.66% | |||||
| Tax rate | 6.59% | 8.22% | 6.90% | |||
| Average | 7.24% |
Cash Flow Statement
| WTRG STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS | |||||
| PERIOD ENDING | Dec-19 | Dec-18 | Dec-17 | Dec-16 | Dec-15 |
| Net Income from Continuing Operations | $ 224,543,000 | $ 191,988,000 | $ 239,738,000 | $ 234,182,000 | $ 201,790,000 |
| Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In | |||||
| Depreciation | $ 156,476,000 | $ 146,673,000 | $ 136,724,000 | $ 133,008,000 | $ 128,737,000 |
| Stock-Based Compensation, Non-Cash Adjustment | $ 7,368,000 | $ 7,567,000 | $ 6,342,000 | $ 5,390,000 | $ 5,860,000 |
| Taxes, Non-Cash Adjustment | $ (10,436,000) | $ (14,950,000) | $ 13,780,000 | $ 17,250,000 | $ 16,506,000 |
| Other Non-Cash Items | $ (37,272,000) | $ 64,370,000 | $ 5,276,000 | $ 4,383,000 | $ 39,796,000 |
| Change in Trade and Other Receivables | $ (4,335,000) | $ (18,024,000) | $ (6,458,000) | $ (3,974,000) | $ (6,520,000) |
| Change in Payables and Accrued Expenses | $ 5,108,000 | $ 567,000 | $ (763,000) | $ 4,756,000 | $ (3,469,000) |
| Other Operating Cash Flow | $ (2,929,000) | $ (9,669,000) | $ (13,321,000) | $ 1,168,000 | $ (11,906,000) |
| Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities | $ 338,523,000 | $ 368,522,000 | $ 381,318,000 | $ 396,163,000 | $ 370,794,000 |
| Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In | |||||
| Purchase of Property, Plant and Equipment | $ (550,273,000) | $ (495,737,000) | $ (478,089,000) | $ (382,996,000) | $ (364,689,000) |
| Purchase/Sale of Business, Net | $ (56,794,000) | $ (144,977,000) | $ (4,518,000) | $ (1,677,000) | $ (28,341,000) |
| Other Investing Cash Flow | $ 2,464,000 | $ 899,000 | $ 2,223,000 | $ 1,464,000 | $ (1,032,000) |
| Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities | $ (604,603,000) | $ (639,815,000) | $ (480,384,000) | $ (383,209,000) | $ (394,062,000) |
| Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In | |||||
| Issuance of/Payments for Common Stock, Net | $ 1,943,833,000 | $ 2,608,000 | $ (714,000) | $ (1,640,000) | $ (24,570,000) |
| Issuance of/Repayments for Debt, Net | $ 371,073,000 | $ 429,542,000 | $ 229,071,000 | $ 120,313,000 | $ 158,460,000 |
| Cash Dividends Paid | $ (188,512,000) | $ (150,736,000) | $ (140,660,000) | $ (130,923,000) | $ (121,248,000) |
| Excess Tax Benefit from Share-Based Compensation, Financing Activities | $ 3,083,000 | $ (12,157,000) | $ 8,937,000 | $ (5,387,000) | $ 335,000 |
| Other Financing Cash Flow | $ 1,898,000 | $ 1,459,000 | $ 2,873,000 | $ 5,217,000 | $ 9,382,000 |
| Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities | $ 2,131,375,000 | $ 270,716,000 | $ 99,507,000 | $ (12,420,000) | $ 22,359,000 |
| Cash and Cash Equivalents, End of Period | $ 1,868,922,000 | $ 3,627,000 | $ 4,204,000 | $ 3,763,000 | $ 3,229,000 |
| Change in Cash | $ 1,865,295,000 | $ (577,000) | $ 441,000 | $ 534,000 | $ (909,000) |
| Cash and Cash Equivalents, Beginning of Period | $ 3,627,000 | $ 4,204,000 | $ 3,763,000 | $ 3,229,000 | $ 4,138,000 |
| Dividend payout | 83.95% | 78.51% | 58.67% | 55.91% | 60.09% |
| Trend | 88.35% | ||||
| CapEx | $ 550,273,000 | $ 495,737,000 | $ 478,089,000 | $ 382,996,000 | $ 364,689,000 |
| As a % of sales | 61.85% | 59.15% | 59.06% | 46.71% | 44.79% |
| Trend | 68.25% | ||||