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Workshop3.Prioritisationofsolutionpathways.pptxMN7P13 Building Business Insights Workshop 3: Prioritisation of solution pathways
Dr. Stephen Hills
Prioritisation of solution pathways
The seven-steps process
How do you define a problem in a precise way to meet the decision maker’s needs?
How do you disaggregate the issues and develop hypotheses to be explored?
How do you prioritize what to do and what not to do?
How do you develop a workplan and assign analytical tasks?
How do you decide on the fact gathering and analysis to resolve the issues, while avoiding cognitive biases?
How do you go about synthesizing the findings to highlight insights?
How do you communicate them in a compelling way?
Step 3: Prioritise the issues, prune the tree
3. Prioritisation of solution pathways (10%, 800 words)
Using a prioritisation matrix, identify the potential pathways to solve the problem (e.g., hypothesised solutions) from the more complete logic tree that have the biggest impact on the project and which you can most affect to find the critical path to solving your problem, pruning the tree to remove the ‘leaves’ that are not on the critical path to solving the problem.
Provide a fully-referenced commentary of the prioritisation matrix, concluding with a summary of the solution pathways (e.g., hypothesised solutions) that will be taken forward to be tested via analyses.
Prioritising problems and pruning logic trees
Good problem solving is as much about what you don’t do as what you do.
Good prioritization of your problem solving work makes your problem solving more efficient.
Solutions come faster with less work – you do not need to work on components of the problem that are not important in solving the problem.
Although we want our initial logic trees to be collectively exhaustive so that we have all the parts, we should not retain components of the problem that:
Are not important in solving the problem.
Are difficult or impossible to influence or affect.
Case: Saving pacific salmon
Prioritization 2x2 matrix
Vertical axis: Potential scale of impact - whether or not the factor is important in solving the problem
Horizontal axis: Ability to influence the factor – whether or not it is possible to affect the factor (low to high).
Case: Climate change and the cost curve
Case: Climate change and the cost curve
Climate change is an imminent threat to all of humanity and is often thought about using the cleaving frame of Mitigate/Adapt, which contrasts policy efforts to reduce harm from a causal factor (e.g., climate change) with efforts to adapt to the factor.
Elements include reduce harm, address harm, and resilience.
Another way that climate change can be though about is using the cleaving frame of Supply/Demand, which addresses questions such as ‘can we get more?’ versus ‘how can we use less?’
This can be operationalised using a cost curve.
A cost curve can be applied to visualize the returns from (below the line), or the costs of (above the line) reducing CO2 emissions.
The potential solutions are then ordered from left to right with furthest left representing highest returns and the furthest right representing the highest costs for reducing CO2 emissions.
Case: Climate change and the cost curve
Case: Climate change and the cost curve
Just do it now – it makes sense!
There are lots of potential actions for which there are positive returns for individuals and private companies.
With these, quick progress can be made against the problem via education and supporting tax credits for the investment costs.
Largely nature’s solutions and agricultural practices
There are another group of actions in the agricultural and land use space, e.g. reforestation, avoided deforestation, degraded land recovery where there are no positive returns, but investment costs are low so governments should invest in these to reduce CO2 emissions.
Invest in new technology and markets
Longer term actions that will require substantial private and social investment in new technology and markets.
Conclusions
Conclusions
Good prioritization of your problem solving work makes your problem solving more efficient.
Do not work on components of the problem that are not important in solving the problem.
Do not work on components of the problem that are difficult or impossible to influence or affect.
Focus your early efforts on the big levers you can pull.
