Assignment: Predicting Precedent Based on History

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14 Evidence-Based and Intelligence- Led Policing

AP Photo/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Kent D. Johnson

Media Library

CHAPTER 14 Media Library

P R E M I U M V I D E OP R E M I U M V I D E O

S AG E N E W S C L I PS AG E N E W S C L I P

FBI Director: Must Resolve Encryp- tion Debate

O P E N AC C E S S V I D E OO P E N AC C E S S V I D E O

Philadelphia Police Talk “SMART Po licing”

CompStat

An Inside Look at the System That C ut Crime in New York By 75 Percent

AU D I OAU D I O

Can Software That Predicts Crime P ass Constitutional Muster?

Outgoing NYPD Commissioner Brat ton Attends Final Crime Stat Meeti ng

W E BW E B

COMPSTAT: Its Origins, Evolution, a nd Future in Law Enforcement Agen cies

Predictive Policing

J O U R N A LJ O U R N A L

Introducing Smart Policing: Foun- dations, principles, and practice

First-Line Supervision and Strategic Decision Making Under CompStat a nd Community Policing

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Objectives

After reading this chapter you will be able to:

• Define smart policing, data-driven and evidence-based policing, COMPSTAT, predictive policing, and intelligence-led policing

• Identify the strengths and limitations of smart policing, data-driven and evidence-based policing, COMPSTAT, predictive policing, and intelligence-led policing

• Compare the similarities and differences in smart policing, data- driven and evidence-based policing, COMPSTAT, predictive policing, and intelligence-led policing

• Discuss the relative importance of research findings when making police policy decisions

• Explain how geospatial crime analysis may lead to place-based crime prevention and how intelligence-led policing may lead to person-based crime prevention

• Discuss how individual privacy can be threatened by intelligence-led policing and geospatial crime analysis

Fact or Fiction

To assess your knowledge of the newest approaches to policing prior to reading this chapter, identify each of the following statements as fact or fiction. (See page 342 at the end of this chapter for answers.)

1. The Smart Policing Initiative involves the creation of partnerships between the police and researchers to study local crime problems.

2. Smart policing was invented in 2013; nothing even resembled it prior to that year.

3. Data-driven policing focuses on the value of DNA in conducting criminal investigations.

4. Research findings are the primary factor police executives should consider when making policy-related decisions.

5. COMPSTAT is an approach to policing that uses data and accountability in an attempt to improve policing.

6. COMSTAT has significantly reduced crime wherever it has been used.

7. Geospatial crime analysis is based on the fact that most crime does not occur randomly but is concentrated in certain places.

8. Crime maps are a primary tool of geospatial crime analysis.

9. Intelligence-led policing refers to the

A

principle that police executives be “smart” when formulating or changing departmental policies.

10. Intelligence-led policing and geospatial crime analysis both involve the prediction of crime.

s departments continue to seek ways of achieving the crime control mandate, numerous new

approaches to policing have emerged in recent years, including smart policing, evidence-based policing, COMPSTAT, predictive policing, and intelligence-led policing. These approaches are separate but related; the common denominator among them is an increased reliance on various forms of information in attempts to improve policing. This chapter will introduce and discuss these strategies.

Smart Policing

The idea of smart policing is quite simple: Police departments and criminal justice researchers form partnerships and work together to identify solutions to local

crime problems.2 The Smart Policing Initiative (SPI) was formally created in 2009 when the U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Assistance made funding available to police agencies to create partnerships with college- or university- affiliated researchers. The research findings resulting from these partnerships

could then be used when making decisions about police policy and strategies. Since 2009, fifty-two police agencies have received SPI funding. Recently funded projects have addressed problems such as prescription drug abuse (see Police Spotlight feature), homicide, violent crime, gangs, gun violence, drugs, domestic violence, property crime, repeat offending, and neighborhood disorder, among others. 3

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Police Spotlight: Smart Policing in the Reno Police Department

The Reno (Nevada) Police Department (RPD) recently received funding through the Smart Policing Initiative (SPI; see below) to initiate a program to combat prescription drug abuse. The project was in progress as of 2016. The excerpt below describes the smart policing approach taken by the RPD to address this issue.

OPEN ACCESS VIDEO Philadelphia Police Talk “S MART Policing” CLICK TO SHOW

Washoe County is a growing community of 406,223 citizens. The City of Reno currently has a population of approximately 214,000. In Washoe County, the amount of prescription pills seized by the Regional Street Enforcement Team doubled between 2005 and 2008. The treatment admissions in Washoe County for prescription drug addiction increased 62% from 2007 to 2008. This is a dangerous trend that cannot be ignored.

JOURNAL Introducing Smart Policing: F oundations, principles, and p ractice CLICK TO SHOW

The Reno Police Department’s goal is to reduce prescription drug use/abuse and the availability of prescription drugs. The Reno SPI has focused on the following main activities:

1. Reduce availability of prescription drugs: Activities include informing doctors and pharmacists about “doctor shopping” and other prescription fraud activity; improving pharmacists’ screening of prescriptions and patients; and reviewing prescription

monitoring programs.

2. Educate the public: Activities include establishing a media campaign on pharmacy bags, conducting a prescription drug drop-off event, distributing educational brochures, and establishing a Strengthening Families Program. As part of this activity, Reno SPI has also held a number of training events for prescribers and pharmacists. This training covers the prevalence and consequences of the prescription drug abuse problem, common methods citizens use to obtain prescription drugs, and the role they can play in turning the tide of this epidemic.

3. Enforce prescription drug laws, including review of prescription monitoring programs: Activities include educating patrol officers about prescription drugs in order to effectively enforce laws regarding illegal possession and distribution of prescription drugs.

[Another focus] has been targeting medical professionals (e.g., pharmacists, physicians, and dentists) with training and education on prescription-drug fraud and abuse. The site believes it has been more practical and impactful to focus

on the source of prescription drugs rather than on parents and students.

The research partner is conducting a process and impact evaluation.

1. Process Evaluation: This is to determine if the agency followed and carried out the intended plan to reduce prescription drug abuse. In this particular case, there are several different techniques to achieve this goal (improving screening by pharmacists, implementing a prescription monitoring program, carrying out “safe parties,” etc.), and these will be evaluated separately in terms of the process evaluation. The process evaluation will determine the extent to which these activities were implemented as part of this effort.

2. Impact Evaluation: The Impact Evaluation will answer the basic question: Did the activities have the desired effect? Although the rate of the targeted crime problem is the first obvious measure, the police department will also consider other indicators to measure the potential impact of this intervention. The evaluation will examine the impact of the project on the

Richard Drew-Pool/Getty Images

PHOTO 14.1 Smart policing involves police and criminal justice researchers working closely together to solve identified crime problems.

following components: the crime problem, the victims, offenders, pharmacies, and the police

department.1

S o u r c e :S o u r c e : Bureau of Justice Statistics, Smart

Policing website

(http://www.smartpolicinginitiative.com/SPIsites/reno-

nevada).

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Part of the reason for creating the SPI was the realization that much of the research being conducted on the effectiveness and efficiency of police strategies was of questionable quality. For example, when

researchers sought to assess the overall effectiveness of problem-oriented policing based on the previous research conducted on it, only ten of 5,500 available articles were deemed to be of sufficient quality to

be included in the assessment.4 Most of the studies had problems with data and research design. SPI research partnerships are intended to improve the quality of research conducted on crime issues; police departments are supposed to contribute complete and valid data, and the researchers are supposed to design and conduct effective studies. In order to receive SPI funding, smart policing initiatives are supposed to have three critical dimensions: (1) a research partnership between a police agency and a criminal justice researcher, (2) a high- quality research design and good data, and (3) a focus on addressing a local crime problem.

Many police departments today speak of a commitment to smart policing even though they have not actually received SPI funding. In a recent survey, nearly one- third of agencies reported they had participated in a research partnership

within the last five years.5 Smart policing sounds good. It implies that policing is cutting-edge, sophisticated, and technologically advanced (think smart phone, smart bomb, smart home, and so forth). Truthfully, police departments do not necessarily need SPI funding in order

A Question to Consider 14.1

Is Smart Policing New?

Smart policing involves the federal government providing money for police agencies to form partnerships with researchers to study and address crime problems. Other than this funding initiative, is the concept of smart policing new? If you believe it is, explain why. If you believe it is not, why might police departments be interested in using a new label for activities that may not really be new?

to implement smart policing, just a cooperative relationship with a researcher to address some crime-related issue.

To evaluate the potential contributions and limitations of smart policing, several issues should be considered. First, police- researcher partnerships can be difficult to create and maintain. Police and researchers often have different priorities and interests when conducting a research study. Relationships must have some element of trust among the participants,

which is not automatic.6 Second, if a department is involved in a research partnership to study a particular crime problem, this does not necessarily mean that department’s approach to policing is

Smart Policing and Convenience Store Crime

different than the approach of other departments. Smart policing does not require a complete transformation of department operations, at least not to the degree that, for example, community policing does. It simply means a department and a researcher are working together to address a particular crime problem. Finally, it is important to emphasize smart policing is not a solution. It is a process, not an outcome, and it cannot solve any crime problem by itself. Smart policing often involves researching the effects of familiar strategies (such as hot spot patrol or problem-oriented policing) on crime problems.

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GOOD POLICING

In 2009 the Glendale (Arizona) Police Department (GPD) received funding through the Smart Policing Initiative and partnered with researchers from Arizona State University to address the extensive crime problem at some of the convenience stores located in

Glendale.7 The team adopted a problem-solving approach to the issue. Researchers calculated Circle K stores represented only 23% of all convenience stores in the city, but

those fifteen stores were responsible for 79% of convenience store calls for police service in 2010. Although most of the calls were for property and disorder crime, a substantial number were related to violent crimes, drug crimes, and prostitution.

To address the issue, researchers and police team members first visited the stores and identified store practices that might be contributing to the crime problems, such as inadequate staffing; a failure to deal with panhandling, loitering, and graffiti; poor lighting; and poor product placement (such as placing beer by the door). Team members then met with Circle K management to share information about the factors potentially contributing to the frequency of crime at their stores and suggested changes for the six stores that generated the most calls for service to the police. Some of these changes were implemented. Second, the team initiated a media campaign highlighting the consequences of theft from convenience stores. Finally, the GPD increased officer presence and enforcement activities at the six targeted stores, which resulted in fifty-seven arrests over nine weekends in August and September 2010.

The researchers found crime dropped significantly (by 42%) at the targeted stores from the year preceding the intervention to the year after. This decline was larger than that experienced at the other convenience stores in the city. The researchers held that not only did the reduction in crime improve employee and customer safety at the stores, the decrease in calls for service also had meaningful impact on officer time spent responding to calls.

This study provides a good example of how a police-researcher partnership can bring the necessary resources together to successfully address identified crime-related problems.

Data-Driven and Evidence- Based Policing

Over the last decade, there has been increased discussion of data-driven and e vidence-based policing. A police department is data driven when its leaders collect and analyze data from their department to make informed decisions about how that agency should best operate, particularly with regard to policing policies and strategies. Evidence- based policing occurs when police leaders use research findings to help inform policy

decisions, but these findings are not necessarily generated from the department using them. Although many police departments have used data to inform decision making in the past, especially since the 1970s, today there is increased emphasis on the practice.

Some of the first police policy questions answered with data related to the effectiveness of random patrol, rapid response, and reactive investigations. Since then, and as discussed throughout this book, literally thousands of policy- related questions have been informed by research data. For example:

• How effective is hot spot patrol in reducing different types of crime? What activities of officers make a difference in this regard?

• How effective are crackdowns? For which offenses do they work best? Under what conditions are they most effective?

• What is the impact of DNA on the investigation of various types of crimes?

• What effects do community policing programs have on various types of crime? What effect do they have on citizens’ attitudes toward the police?

• How do police actions affect citizens’ perceptions of procedural justice and

police legitimacy? What is the significance of these perceptions?

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• How effective is problem-oriented policing in controlling crime and disorder?

• What types of training are necessary for police officers to perform their work competently? How is that training best delivered?

• What measures can be taken to reduce the physical and psychological risks of police work?

• Under what circumstances is force most likely to be used by officers? What types of force lessen the likelihood of citizen and police injuries?

• How should patrol officers most effectively spend their uncommitted time?

• What effect do body-worn cameras have on police use of force and citizen complaints?

For there to be data on which to base decisions, agencies must have some capability of collecting and analyzing such data and then turning it into usable information. This capability may come through partnerships with researchers, as with smart policing, or it may be internal, such as a department’s own crime analysis

center or research office. When data are analyzed, they turn into information. Another name for information is evidence. As such, data-driven policing is sometimes considered synonymous with evidence- based policing. Data-driven policing and evidence-based policing share the belief that “police practices should be based on scientific evidence about what works best.” 8

OTHER BASES FOR POLICY DECISIONS

If decisions are not based on data or research evidence, then what could they be based upon? There are several possibilities. Decisions can be based on assumptions, or what some people believe to be true. For example, for decades people believed preventive patrol distributed randomly throughout a community prevented crime. Not until the 1970s was this assumption tested and found to be untrue. Decisions can also be based on tradition. Some things are done a certain way today simply because that is how they have been done in the past. Decisions may be based on authority. For example, things might be done the way they are in a department simply because the chief wants them done that way. In contrast to assumptions, tradition, and authority, research findings provide a more analytic basis on which to make policy-level decisions.

SHOULD POLICY DECISIONS BE BASED ON RESEARCH FINDINGS?

It is reasonable to ask if decisions should be based on research evidence. Interestingly, there are some reasons to believe data and research evidence are not the most important—and certainly not the only—factors to consider when making decisions. First, it should be clear that using research evidence to make decisions is most relevant for police leaders making policy-related decisions, not for patrol officers making street-level discretionary decisions. There are few opportunities for patrol officers to consider research findings when making on-the-spot decisions, although the policies and training that guide those decisions may be research based.

There is, however, value in patrol officers

being familiar with the research process.9

When research is conducted in police departments, it is usually officers who are either the subjects of the research or the ones expected to carry out the research procedures. If officers have a familiarity with the research process and understand the value of it, they may be more likely to comply with it. There are many stories of police officers failing to comply with the procedures of a research study and the quality of the study suffering as a result. For example, in the Minneapolis Domestic

Violence Experiment,10 officers were

instructed by the researchers to take one of three actions (arrest, warn, or separate) when responding to an eligible domestic violence incident. The action to be taken was predetermined through a procedure involving color-coded report forms placed in random order (e.g., a red form meant arrest, a yellow form meant warn, etc.). However, some officers subverted the randomization procedure by not following the color-coded reports. When they were supposed to warn the subject based on the color of the report, they made arrests. Or they warned when they were supposed to separate. This resulted in bias being

introduced into the study.11 Perhaps if officers had been made more aware of the importance of following procedure in producing accurate results, they would have been more likely to comply with the research protocol of the study.

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Second, if police leaders are to base policy decisions on research findings, ideally that research should be conducted in that agency. Because of different community and police department characteristics, what is true in one setting may not be true in another. Again, as an example, the Minneapolis Domestic Violence Experiment was replicated in five other cities. Each study had at least slightly different results. Based on victim interviews, three of the studies found

arrest deterred repeat domestic violence; three found it did not. In fact, in three of the cities, arrest was shown to increase the likelihood of repeat domestic violence. This has been referred to as the different

communities dilemma.12

Third, even if a study is of high quality and is conducted in the community or police department where its findings are to be applied, one must be reasonably cautious about making policy decisions based on a single study. A policymaker should be more confident in making decisions based on research if there are consistent findings from many studies. However, this is not a luxury often afforded to police policymakers. If multiple studies do exist, there is a good chance they have produced different findings, as noted in the domestic violence studies.

Finally, research evidence may not be the most important consideration in policy development; many other issues and interests may need to be considered. For example, police executives must always consider the liability implications of policy decisions. Even if research indicates a particular policy is effective, setting policy strictly on this evidence could subject the police department to lawsuits. For a case in point, we again turn to the domestic violence studies. Even though some of the studies clearly showed arrest did not work best and may have actually increased the

likelihood of repeat domestic violence in some instances, many departments proceeded to implement mandatory arrest policies primarily to protect themselves

from liability claims.13

Resource constraints are another major factor to consider. Can the agency afford to implement the research-recommended solution? Political factors also may play a role. How might other constituent groups be affected by a proposed solution? Will citizens accept the solution? Will politicians support the solution? Will police officers accept it? It would be naïve to think research findings should be the sole, or even primary, consideration when making policy-level decisions. The data- driven and evidence-based approach to policing offers a scientific way of improving policies, but it is important to put its potential contribution in perspective and understand its limitations.

COMPSTAT

COMPSTAT (usually identified as a short form of computer statistics) was first introduced in 1994 by Police Commissioner William Bratton in the New York City Police Department (NYPD). COMPSTAT can be thought of as a data- driven approach to policing, the goal of which is to reduce crime and sometimes to

solve other departmental problems.14 It

has been described as a data-driven management model, a management process, a management device, a tool of management accountability, a performance management system, and a management model. Clearly, COMPSTAT has something to do with management!

OPEN ACCESS VIDEO CompStat CLICK TO SHOW

WEB COMPSTAT: Its Origins, Evolu- tion, and Future in Law En- forcement Agencies CLICK TO SHOW

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There are various ways in which COMPSTAT operates, but at its core the system consists of two critical elements: data and accountability. Through the analysis of data, particularly crime data, serious crime problems are identified and then assigned to particular individuals for resolution. These individuals are usually high-level police managers, such as precinct commanders. Once a problem is assigned, it is “owned” by the assignee until it is resolved. The commander who is given the problem works with his or her subordinates, including sergeants and patrol officers, to identify potential

Spokane Police Department

PHOTO 14.2 COMPSTAT is a data- driven approach used to identify and address crime problems in a jurisdiction.

solutions. After the initial assignment of the problem is made, follow-up is conducted to see what actions were taken and what results were obtained. In this way particular people are held accountable for particular problems.

JOURNAL First-Line Supervision and Strate- gic Decision Making Under CompS tat and Community Policing CLICK TO SHOW

Shortly after the introduction of COMPSTAT in the NYPD, crime in the city began to decline. Police leaders attributed

this to COMPSTAT.15 In the face of this apparent success, many police departments across the country also implemented COMPSTAT or some version of it. However, the system’s success in

other cities has been mixed.16 While accountability can certainly lead to positive outcomes, some people have argued a relentless focus on responsibility for addressing difficult crime problems may create incentive for the police to manipulate crime data to make it appear

crime has been reduced when it has not.17

Aside from this possibility, the biggest issue with COMPSTAT is that although using effective tactics to solve crime problems is central to the success of COMPSTAT, those tactics are not specified by the system. They have to be discovered. In a recent study examining the use of COMPSTAT in seven police departments, the results revealed sergeants and patrol officers were largely responsible for solving COMPSTAT-identified crime problems, and they were expected to do so without any clear guidance. One of the sergeants interviewed in the study spoke about how his commander gave him little direction in how to solve a problem involving theft from autos:

Jeff Greenberg/UIG via Getty Images

PHOTO 14.3 COMPSTAT involves assigning responsibility for crime problems to particular officers. Methods to address the problems are then identified and follow-up is conducted. COMPSTAT provides accountability for the reduction of crime.

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He is saying, O.K. guys, you have one hundred years of experience between the three of ya’. Let’s fix it. That’s what he is doing; it is not a direct, “this is what we are going to do.” He throws this thing out there. Put your heads together and figure out how we are

going to resolve this issue.18

Another sergeant explained how the solutions to identified crime problems were usually not very creative:

Typically, I mean when you are talking about bar problems, construction area

thefts, they don’t demand a tremendous amount of creativity in how you approach them . . . . You either want to be seen or you don’t want to be seen. If you want to be seen, you want to patrol to increase visibility, do traffic enforcements, do

bar checks.19

In summary, COMPSTAT is an accountability tool that involves the identification of particular crime problems and the assignment of those problems to specific police department personnel. Although the system has been successful in some departments, it is limited in the same way that smart policing, data-driven policing, and evidence-based policing are limited: It is not a method or strategy by which to control crime; it is merely an approach to policing.

Predictive Policing

Predictive policing includes some aspects of data-driven policing, COMPSTAT, and intelligence-led policing (see below) but with the specific purpose of trying to predict (1) where crimes will occur, (2) when they will occur, (3) against whom they will occur, and (4) who will commit them. Simply stated, predictive policing involves using data to try to predict and prevent crime.

AUDIO Can Software That Predicts Crim e Pass Constitutional Muster? CLICK TO SHOW

No matter how sophisticated the analyses, predictive policing is not in the realm of science fiction, where the police make arrests of citizens for crimes before those crimes even occur (as in the film The Minority Report). Predictive policing also does not mean the police become psychic or use a crystal ball. Predictive policing is based on the simple fact that the majority of crime is not random. In particular, predatory street crime (e.g., murder, rape, robbery, shootings) is not distributed evenly across time, place, or people. Certain times are more likely to experience crimes than others (e.g., there is more crime at night than during the day); some places are more likely to experience crime than others (e.g., taverns have more crime than libraries); some people are more likely to become victims than others (e.g., drug dealers versus monks); and some people are more likely to commit crimes than others (e.g., men versus women). Because many crimes are not random, if patterns can be identified, interventions may be introduced to prevent these crimes. One of the problems with predictive policing is the more specific the prediction, the more likely it is to be wrong. If the police could determine the location and time of a crime, the offender, and the victim, crime

AF archive/Alamy Stock Photo

PHOTO 14.4 Predictive policing is based on the fact that predatory crime is not randomly distributed across time, space, or people. It is not science fiction, however, as was the crime prevention process in the film Minority Report.

prevention would be easy. Unfortunately, this is not possible.

WEB Predictive Policing CLICK TO SHOW

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CRIME ANALYSIS

Crime analysis is the primary method of predictive policing. Broadly defined, “crime analysis involves the collection and analysis of data pertaining to a criminal

incident, offender, and target.”22 When the data being analyzed relate to who is involved in crimes (victims and offenders), it is often known as crime intelligence

analysis.23 When the analyses are focused on where crimes occur, it is often referred to as geospatial crime analysis.

OPEN ACCESS VIDEO An Inside Look at the System That Cut Crime in New York By 75 Per cent CLICK TO SHOW

Geospatial Crime Analytics

Methods of geographic-based crime analysis vary considerably in their sophistication, but in all forms crime maps are a commonly used tool. The most basic maps use color-coded pins to illustrate visually where various crimes have occurred in a particular jurisdiction over a particular period of time. Through the quick inspection of such a map, a basic understanding of the distribution of crime across space can be developed. Police departments have been using these types of maps as a basis for predicting crimes for decades. More elaborate crime analysis methodologies used today include the use of geographical information systems (GIS)

that allow for the automated recording and plotting of criminal incidents on detailed computerized maps. Some police departments provide interactive on- demand crime maps on their websites (see

Figure 14.1).24 Some crime mapping technologies also allow for the inclusion of other data, such as the following:

• Demographic characteristics of a population

• Location of various businesses (e.g., taverns and other alcohol outlets)

• Residences of parolees (e.g., sex offenders)

• Gang territories

• Known and suspected drug houses

• Traffic stops and field interviews

• Calls for service25

Many police departments operate a computer-aided dispatch (CAD) system (see Chapter 6). CAD systems include data on calls for service, traffic stops, field interviews, and other patrol officer activities. Many police departments also use a records management system (RMS) to electronically store other information, such as crime reports, arrest reports, traffic citations, and/or other police-citizen contacts. When CAD data and RMS data are combined with GIS capabilities and software, crime analysts have a wealth of

data to analyze and interpret. This can include everything from a city-wide analysis of crime over time to calls for service and police actions at particular addresses. The data may also be analyzed to reveal patterns of crime, or certain types of crime, across time (e.g., time of day, year) and space (e.g., in and around schools, at public transportation stops). Geospatial crime analysis can offer general predictions about when and where crime will occur and provide the necessary information to make informed patrol allocation decisions, thus providing a basis for place-based crime prevention.

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RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT

Alcohol Outlets and CrimeAlcohol Outlets and Crime

It has been well established that much of the workload of the police is associated with citizens’ consumption of alcohol. Alcohol affects behavior, sometimes in a criminal way. But how do the places that sell alcohol contribute to this problem? Specifically, do areas with alcohol outlets experience increased thefts from vehicles and vandalism of property? Using crime, census, and liquor license data from Milwaukee, researchers sought to answer this

question.20

The researchers identified the areas where theft and vandalism crimes occurred in the city and where on- premise alcohol outlets (e.g., bars and restaurants) and off-premise alcohol outlets (e.g., convenience and liquor stores) were located. They calculated the number of crimes and alcohol outlets per square mile for each census block group. They also included in their analyses other factors that might explain the rate of crime in an area, such as neighborhood social disorganization (e.g., poverty, residential instability, single-head households, and ethnic heterogeneity); population density; and the proportion of all male block group residents who were fifteen to twenty-four years of age. These factors were referred to as control variables.

The researchers used several types of geospatial statistical software, such as ArcMap 10, GeoDa, and GeoDaSpace, to manage the data and conduct their analyses. They found areas with higher concentrations of either on-premise or off-premise alcohol outlets had higher concentrations of thefts from vehicles and vandalism of property, regardless of the control variables.

Therefore, on the basis of this study, it is reasonable to predict that areas with more alcohol outlets will have more thefts from autos and vandalism crimes than areas with fewer alcohol outlets.

The authors concluded, “Our findings have clear policy implications for local jurisdictions. . . . Local jurisdictions can reduce non-violent crimes by limiting the licensing of alcohol-selling establishments, perhaps especially those that engage

in irresponsible retail practices.”21

FIGURE FIGURE 14.114.1 An Example of a Crime Map from the Philadelphia Police Department Website

The Philadelphia Police Department provides crime information via an interactive map that is available on its website (https://www.phillypolice.- com/crime-maps-stats/). Users identify a time frame and area of the city to see where crime has occurred. As shown here,

during a seven-day time period, theft was by far the most common crime in this area, with 159 instances. Violent crime, including robbery (34 instances), is also prevalent. How might a tool like this be useful for police and community members alike?

S o u r c e :S o u r c e : Philadelphia Police Department, “Crime

Mapper,” https://www.phillypolice.com/crime-maps-

stats/.

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A Question of Ethics

Balancing the Right to Know with the Right to Privacy

As discussed earlier in this book, community and problem-solving policing involve developing a trusting and cooperative relationship with citizens in order to prevent crime. When this approach is combined with predictive policing, it often means the police share crime information, such as crime maps and statistics, with

citizens.27 Indeed, citizens often appreciate being kept informed by the police about crimes in their

neighborhoods and communities. Furthermore, potential crime victims may take appropriate precautions if they are aware of a crime problem. If an agency fails to notify citizens about crime risks, it may be doing the community a major disservice. However, while citizens have a right to know about crime in their communities, and there can be benefits to sharing that information, victims also have a right to privacy. For example, if the location of a crime is provided, then the identity of the victim may be determined. If the crime is a sexual assault or some other sensitive crime, clearly the violation of the victim’s privacy is a major issue.

So how should police departments balance the right to know with the right to privacy? Specifically, should information about crimes be released to the community? If yes, what types of information should be released and what types should not? If a department releases only limited information, do you think that information will still be useful to citizens and potential victims? Explain. 26

S o u r c e :S o u r c e : Julie Wartell and J. Thomas McEwen.

(2001). Privacy in the Information Age: A Guide

for Sharing Crime Maps and Spatial Data.

Washington, DC.: National Institute of Justice.

AUDIO Outgoing NYPD Commissioner B ratton Attends Final Crime Stat M eeting CLICK TO SHOW

The police and other law enforcement agencies are increasingly hiring crime analysts in their departments (Exhibit 14.1). In the past, if crime analysis was performed in departments it was usually by officers with an interest in the issue. Now, given the complexity and technical knowledge required to collect, analyze, and interpret crime data, specially trained civilians are often hired for the positions. Several universities include crime analytics as a curricular option in criminal justice undergraduate and graduate degrees.

The Impact of Geospatial Crime Analysis

Geospatial crime analysis has the potential to impact crime, but it must be understood that it is a method of developing and analyzing information, not a crime reduction strategy by itself. This is analogous to how magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) produces information to diagnose an illness, but it does not cure the

illness.29 Indeed, geospatial crime analysis

is not a cure for crime. Crime analysis can only lead to a crime reduction when combined with effective police strategies.

Research suggests much of the potential of crime analysis has yet to be realized in the nation’s police departments. While nearly three-fourths of agencies report having personnel who conduct crime analysis, overall, crime analysis results have not been optimally utilized by police

departments.30 This is generally because the crime information is not useful, it is unclear how the information can be used, or a combination of the two. In any case, in order for crime analysis to be helpful, the analysts must work closely with those who will be using the information. Ideally, analysts should be able to provide answers to questions about crime patterns and trends posed by officers and commanders. And if officers and commanders do not know what questions to ask, the analysts should be able to educate them about the potential of crime analysis information in improving the police response to crime.

SAGE NEWS CLIP FBI Director: Must Resolve En- cryption Debate

Intelligence-Led Policing

Intelligence-led policing has been described as a management philosophy that uses data and criminal intelligence to

focus enforcement activities.31 Using this definition, it is apparent intelligence-led policing is closely related to what has been discussed in this chapter as data-driven policing. However, what separates the two is a focus on criminal intelligence. Criminal intelligence refers to information about criminal offenders, particularly who they are and what methods they use. A central aspect of intelligence-led policing is intelligence-based crime analysis, which is person-focused analysis. This is in contrast to geospatial crime analysis, which is place-focused. For intelligence-led policing to be a management philosophy, intelligence-based crime analysis needs to be well integrated into the criminal investigation operations of an organization. Intelligence-led policing also requires priority be placed on information

development and sharing.32

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tom carter/Alamy Stock Photo

PHOTO 14.5 The hiring of crime analysts is increasing among law enforcement agencies. As its title suggests, the job involves analyzing crime in an effort to predict and prevent it.

Person-based crime analysis makes fundamental sense because it is people who commit crimes. With this approach the focus is directly on identifying and targeting offenders and potential offenders. In contrast, with a place-based approach, the focus is on places; places that include offenders and nonoffenders. Arguably, then, the intelligence-based approach is more focused than the place- based approach when it comes to addressing crime. In addition, a small proportion of people in a population account for a relatively large proportion of all crimes in that setting. If the high-rate offenders could be identified and deterred/incapacitated from committing additional crimes, crime rates could be substantially affected. While intelligence-

based crime analysis is often oriented toward gang and drug enforcement (Exhib- it 14.2) and terrorism, it can be used to

target other crimes as well.33

Exhibit 14.1

Crime Analyst Job Description, Danville Police Department

The following is a job description/listing for a crime analyst in the Danville (Virginia) Police Department. In 2016 Danville had a population of 43,000 and a police department with 128 sworn officers.

The purpose of this position is to perform skilled administrative and technical duties to provide analysis and data evaluation to the Danville Police Department for the purpose of increasing the effectiveness of police operations and informed decision making. This is accomplished by developing statistical data resources to assist in criminal investigations, identifying crime trends and patterns, and informing resource deployment. Responding to requests for data analysis and information initiating from department command staff.

Querying and analyzing the Department Records Management System (SunGard OSSI OneSolution RMS) data. Preparing a wide variety of reports to include crime and patrol bulletins, research reports, department annual report, and informational reports for communities, media, and other governmental entities. Applying knowledge of criminal activities and law enforcement techniques in overall analysis for compiling data- driven approaches to law enforcement activities. Using computer databases and software to extract, analyze, and present data to include GIS tools, Crystal Reports, Excel, Word, PowerPoint, Access, and so on. Other duties include reading, studying, and staying abreast of current and emerging trends and issues in policing and crime analysis. Constructing, preparing, and presenting reports, summaries, charts, graphs, table, and other materials for the purpose of informing the department, City, other agencies, media, and citizens of crime trends and analysis. Making appropriate recommendations for improvements in department crime analysis program and guiding personnel in making the most effective use of its products.

White House Photo/Alamy Stock Photo

PHOTO 14.6 Intelligence-led policing depends heavily on the collection and analysis of crime data to focus enforcement activities. Here President Obama and a police official discuss the intelligence-led policing strategy.

Formal Education: Work requires broad knowledge in a general professional or technical field. Knowledge is normally acquired through four years of college resulting in a Bachelor’s degree or equivalent.

Salary: $46,677.00—$56,012.00

Annually.28

S o u r c e :S o u r c e : City of Danville, Virginia, website

(http://va-

danville2.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/16937).

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Intelligence-led policing also incorporates an element of prediction. The prediction is not about which places are likely to experience crime in the future, as is the case with geospatial crime analysis, but about which people are likely to offend in the future. This approach is oriented toward identifying offenders before they commit crimes. The horrific terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, clearly highlighted the potential value of identifying offenders before they act. Other events, including the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013, the San Bernardino shootings in 2015, and the Orlando shootings in 2016, also reinforce the value of early identification of offenders. In all these cases, law enforcement authorities were unable to identify the offenders prior to their crimes and were seriously criticized as a result.

Exhibit 14.2

The Drug Enforcement Administration as an Intelligence- Led Agency

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is a good example of an intelligence-led agency. As explained on the agency’s website,

Since its establishment in 1973, the DEA, in coordination with other federal, state, local, and foreign law enforcement organizations, has been responsible for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of drug-related intelligence. The role of intelligence in drug law enforcement is critical. The DEA Intelligence Program helps initiate new investigations of major drug organizations, strengthens ongoing ones and subsequent prosecutions, develops information that leads to seizures and arrests, and provides policy makers with drug trend information upon which programmatic decisions can be based. The specific functions of the DEA’s intelligence mission are:

• Collect and produce intelligence in support of the Administrator and other federal, state, and local agencies;

• Establish and maintain close working relationships with all agencies that produce or use narcotics intelligence;

• Increase the efficiency in the reporting, analysis, storage, retrieval, and exchange of such

information and undertake a continuing review of the narcotics intelligence effort to identify and correct deficiencies.

The DEA’s Intelligence Program has grown significantly since its inception. From only a handful of Intelligence Analysts (I/A) in the domestic offices and Headquarters in 1973, the total number of I/As worldwide is now over 680. DEA’s Intelligence Program consists of several entities that are staffed by both I/As and Special Agents: Intelligence Groups/Functions in the domestic field divisions, district, resident and foreign offices, the El Paso Intelligence Center, and the Intelligence Division at DEA Headquarters. Program responsibility for the DEA’s intelligence mission rests with the DEA Assistant

Administrator for Intelligence.3

4

S o u r c e :S o u r c e : Drug Enforcement Administration

website

(https://www.dea.gov/ops/intel.shtml).

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Due to technological advances, it is

possible for law enforcement agencies to collect increasing amounts of information on people in an effort to prevent crimes and identify perpetrators. In addition to national networks of crime-related information, such as the National Crime Information Center (see Technology on the Job feature), most police departments collect information on crimes and criminals. For example, urban police departments typically collect a lot of information relating to street gangs that operate in their jurisdiction. This is appropriate and necessary given the high involvement of gang members in drug sales

and other violent crimes35 (see Figure 14.2).

Most large police departments also have a specialized gang unit designed to collect and act on gang information. This intelligence is obtained from a variety of sources, including citizens, informants, the offenders themselves, and officers on the street. This information can be stored electronically and can be a useful source of potential leads in investigations. As explained by the National Gang Intelligence Center (NGIC),

Gang units and task forces are a vital component in targeting gangs and have played a substantial role in mitigating gang activity in a number of US communities. The majority of NGIC law enforcement partners

report that their agency has or participates in a gang task force, and most utilize a gang database to track and monitor gang members in their

jurisdictions.36

One such database is GRIP (Gang/Narcotics Relational Intelligence Program). GRIP provides a method to compile, store, categorize, and retrieve information on suspected gang members. The database stores various types of information on subjects, including demographic data, physical characteristics, gang affiliation, criminal history, aliases, vehicles, tattoos, and addresses and phone numbers. Photos of subjects may also be included in the database. Searches of the database can be made on any of these dimensions.

In this age of information, many other sources of intelligence are available to law enforcement (Chapter 7 provided a detailed discussion of this issue). For example, social networking sites (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) are a potentially rich source of information on offenders and their criminal plans. Confidential informants can play a critical role in the identification of criminals and provide important information about criminal activity. There are also a multitude of databases used by law enforcement agencies for criminal intelligence purposes. Most large police departments maintain

databases that include such things as pawnshop records, modus operandi (MO) files, and the street names or aliases used

by individuals.40 Many other databases maintained by federal agencies are also available to law enforcement agencies (Exh ibit 14.4).

Exhibit 14.3

Correctional Intelligence Task Force (CITF)

The Correctional Intelligence Task Force (CITF) is a joint task force comprised of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR), and Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) that provides direct access to intelligence and information within the CDCR and BOP for efficient collection, analysis, and dissemination of prison-derived criminal activity. The mission is to systematically integrate intelligence and operations to initiate and enhance law enforcement suppression efforts through the identification, exploitation, and dissemination of cross-programmatic intelligence

derived from correctional facilities.3

7

S o u r c e :S o u r c e : National Gang Intelligence Center.

(2015). National Gang Report. Washington,

D.C.: National Gang Intelligence Center, p. 24.

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FIGURE FIGURE 14.214.2 Street Gang Involvement in Criminal Activity

S o u r c e :S o u r c e : National Gang Intelligence Center,

“National Gang Report: 2015 Gangs,” 2016,

https://www.fbi.gov/stats-

services/publications/national-gang-report-2015.pdf,

National Crime Information Center

p. 14.

LIMITATIONS OF INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING

As with the other approaches discussed in this chapter, intelligence-led policing has the potential to improve the operations of law enforcement agencies, particularly the criminal detection and crime prevention functions of these agencies. While using information to identify and apprehend offenders is certainly nothing new, intelligence-led policing as a management philosophy is a relatively new idea, and “next to nothing is known about this area

and best practice does not exist.”41 Much has yet to be figured out in intelligence-led policing before its full potential can be realized.

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TECHNOLOGY ON THE JOB

There is probably no greater source of intelligence for the police than the National Crime I nformation Center (NCIC). The NCIC, which is maintained by the FBI, is the largest and most well-known crime information network system in the United States. The NCIC began operations in 1967, and by 1971

police agencies in all fifty states were linked to the system. Today, more than 80,000 law enforcement and criminal justice agencies have access to the NCIC database. At the end of 2015, the system contained more than twelve million records. Nearly thirteen million queries (“transactions’) are made of the

system daily.38

The NCIC consists of a centralized database and a network of connecting computers. Representatives of agencies may enter information into the database and make queries of the database. The originating agency also has the responsibility for removing records once the information is no longer valid. The system contains information in the following files:

• Article File—Records on stolen articles and lost public safety, homeland security, and critical infrastructure identification.

• Gun File—Records on stolen, lost, and recovered weapons and weapons used in the commission of crimes that are designated to expel a projectile by air, carbon dioxide, or explosive action.

• Boat File—Records on stolen boats.

• Securities File—Records on serially numbered stolen, embezzled, used for ransom, or counterfeit securities.

• Vehicle File—Records on stolen vehicles, vehicles involved in the commission of crimes, or vehicles that may be seized based on federally issued court order.

• Vehicle and Boat Parts File— Records on serially numbered stolen vehicle or boat parts.

• License Plate File—Records on stolen license plates.

• Missing Persons File—Records on individuals, including children, who have been reported missing to law enforcement and there is a reasonable concern for their safety.

• Foreign Fugitive File—Records on persons wanted by another country for a crime that would be a felony if it were committed in the United States.

• Identity Theft File—Records containing descriptive and other information that law enforcement personnel can use to determine if an individual is a victim of identity theft or if the individual might be using a false identity.

• Immigration Violator File—

Records on criminal aliens whom immigration authorities have deported and aliens with outstanding administrative warrants of removal.

• Protection Order File—Records on individuals against whom protection orders have been issued.

• Supervised Release File—Records on individuals on probation, parole, or supervised release or released on their own recognizance or during pre-trial sentencing.

• Unidentified Persons File— Records on unidentified deceased persons, living persons who are unable to verify their identities, unidentified victims of catastrophes, and recovered body parts. The file cross-references unidentified bodies against records in the Missing Persons File.

• Protective Interest—Records on individuals who might pose a threat to the physical safety of protectees or their immediate families. Expands on the U.S. Secret Service Protective File, originally created in 1983.

• Gang File—Records on violent gangs and their members.

• Known or Appropriately

Suspected Terrorist File—Records on known or appropriately suspected terrorists.

• Wanted Persons File—Records on individuals (including juveniles who will be tried as adults) for whom a federal warrant or a felony or misdemeanor warrant is outstanding.

• National Sex Offender Registry File—Records on individuals who are required to register in a jurisdiction’s sex offender registry.

• National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) Denied Transaction File—Records on individuals who have been determined to be “prohibited persons” according to the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act and were denied as a result of a NICS background check. (As of August 2012, records include last six months of denied transactions; in the future, records will include all denials.)

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• Violent Person File—Once fully populated with data from . . . users, this file will contain records of persons with a violent criminal history and persons who have previously threatened law

enforcement.39

The NCIC has the capability of quickly putting vast and critical information in the hands of police and investigators. As such, the center can be a powerful investigative tool and can have an important role in intelligence-led policing efforts.

S o u r c e :S o u r c e : Federal Bureau of Investigation,

National Crime Information Center website

(https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/ncic).

Exhibit 14.4

National Databases for Law Enforcement Intelligence Purposes

Besides the NCIC, which was discussed earlier, many other intelligence databases are also available to law enforcement. These databases include the following: National Law Enforcement Telecommunications System (NTETS): NLETS is a network that links law enforcement agencies, other criminal justice agencies in the United States, and motor vehicle and licensing departments. The information available through the

system includes vehicle registrations by license or vehicle identification number, driver’s license and driving record information, other vehicle registration information, parole/probation and corrections information, and sex offender registration information.

INTERPOL Case Tracking System (ICTS): The ICTS contains information about persons, property, and organizations involved in international criminal activity.

Terrorist Watch List: The Terrorist Screening Center maintains the U.S. government’s consolidated Terrorist Watch List, which is a single database of identifying information about those known or reasonably suspected of being involved in terrorist activity.

Central Index System (CIS) and related databases: The CIS is operated and maintained by the Bureau of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). It contains information on legal immigrants, naturalized citizens, and aliens who have been formally deported or excluded from the United States. The Nonimmigrant Information System of the USCIS contains information on the entry

and departure of nonimmigrants (aliens) in the United States for a temporary stay. The Law Enforcement Support Center is also operated by the USCIS and provides information to local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies about aliens who have been arrested. The National Alien Information Lookout System consists of a USCIS index of names of individuals who may be excludable from the United States. The Consular Lookout and Support System is a related database operated by the U.S. Department of State. It contains information on several million individuals who have been determined to be ineligible for visas, those who need additional investigation prior to issuance of a visa, and those who would be ineligible for visas should they apply for one.

El Paso Intelligence Center (EPIC): EPIC is designed to collect, process, and disseminate information concerning drug trafficking, alien smuggling, weapons trafficking, and related criminal activity on the southwest border as well as in the entire Western Hemisphere.

Sentry: Sentry is operated by the Federal Bureau of Prisons and

Jeffrey Blackler/Alamy Stock Photo

PHOTO 14.7 Many databases are used to store and disseminate information on wanted

contains information on all federal prisoners incarcerated since 1980. The available information includes the inmate’s physical description, location, release information, custody classification, and sentencing information, among other items.

Equifax and TransUnion: Equifax and TransUnion are companies that provide credit information on individuals. Databases within their operation may be used to collect various information on people, including recent addresses and demographic information.

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persons, including the one maintained by INTERPOL pictured here.

One known fact about this type of policing is that information cannot simply be collected; it has to be analyzed and made actionable. It has to be usable and used. A great deal of media attention has focused on the inability of law enforcement to “connect the dots” of information in order to prevent recent terrorist attacks. For example, reports have stated Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the mastermind of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, was on the national terrorism database watch list, yet this information was of no use in the prevention of the bombings or in his identification. Clearly, computers and databases cannot do everything, but they —and those who operate them—play a critical role in directing and focusing investigations and investigative activities. This, by definition, is the meaning of intelligence-led.

Although a person-based approach to crime reduction has the potential to make law enforcement organizations more focused on serious and repeat offenders (and therefore more efficient), significant resources are necessary to operate an effective intelligence-gathering and production process. Personnel are required to collect, evaluate, and produce useful intelligence. Personnel cost money. Technology to store and process

information costs money. Unfortunately, the ability and willingness of agencies to pay for technological advancements is lagging behind the pace of those advancements.

An additional concern with intelligence- gathering activities in law enforcement agencies is their possible effect on citizens’ privacy. This important issue is discussed in detail in the next chapter.

MAIN POINTS

• Smart policing, evidence-based policing, data-driven policing, COMPSTAT, predictive policing, and intelligence-led policing are separate but related approaches to policing. A common denominator among them is an increased reliance on various forms of information in an attempt to improve policing.

• Smart policing, data-driven policing, COMPSTAT, predictive policing, and intelligence-led policing share a common limitation: They are not methods or strategies of crime control, they are merely approaches to policing.

• The idea behind smart policing is

that police departments and criminal justice researchers form partnerships and work together to identify solutions to local crime problems. This approach is supported by funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Assistance.

• Data-driven and evidence-based policing occur when police leaders use data or research findings to make informed decisions about how their departments should best operate.

• There are several bases for police policy making; the data-driven and evidence-based approaches provide an analytic basis on which to make policy-level decisions.

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• COMPSTAT is a data-driven approach to policing that involves identifying crime problems and assigning them to particular commanders for resolution. By assigning responsibility for problem solution to particular police personnel, COMPSTAT provides for accountability.

• Predictive policing involves using data to try to predict and prevent crime. Crime analysis is the primary method of predictive

policing. Crime analysis involves the collection and analysis of data relating to crime, offenders, and targets. When the analysis relates to the people involved in crimes (victims and offenders), it is often known as crime intelligence analysis. When the analysis relates to where crimes occur, it is often referred to as geospatial (geographically based) crime analysis.

• Geospatial crime analysis can offer general predictions about when and where crime will occur and provide the necessary information to make informed patrol allocation decisions.

• Intelligence-led policing uses data and criminal intelligence to focus enforcement activities. Criminal intelligence refers to information about criminal offenders, particularly who they are and what methods they use. An important aspect of intelligence-led policing is intelligence-based crime analysis.

IMPORTANT

TERMS

COMPSTAT 328

Crime maps 331

Data-driven policing 326

Evidence-based policing 326

Geospatial crime analysis 331

Intelligence-led policing 333

National Crime Information Cen- ter (NCIC) 338

Person-focused analysis 333

Predictive policing 330

Smart policing 323

QUESTIONS FOR

DISCUSSION

AND REVIEW

1. Compare data-driven policing with evidence-based policing.

2. How does smart policing differ from data-driven and evidence- based policing?

3. Should police policy decisions be based on research findings? Explain.

4. What is COMPSTAT? Is it effective? What is its major limitation?

5. Can crime be predicted? Why or why not?

6. What is geospatial crime analysis? How can it be used to prevent crime?

7. How does intelligence-led policing differ from evidence- based policing?

8. Explain how intelligence-led policing is a form of predictive policing.

9. Identify and discuss two limitations/concerns with intelligence-led policing.

10. What is the National Crime Information Center (NCIC)? Identify and discuss other sources of criminal intelligence.

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FACT OR

FICTION

ANSWERS

1. Fact

2. Fiction

3. Fiction

4. Fiction

5. Fact

6. Fiction

7. Fact

8. Fact

9. Fiction

10. Fact

DIGITAL

RESOURCES

h t t p : //e d g e . s a g e p u b . c o m / b ra n d lh t t p : //e d g e . s a g e p u b . c o m / b ra n d l

SAGE edge offers a robust online environment featuring an impressive array of free tools and resources for review, study, and further exploration, keeping both instructors and students on the cutting edge of teaching and learning.

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