Successful End to Legal Segregation

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WeekofApril26TheEndoftheColdWar2of2.docx

Week of April 26 The End of the Cold War 2 of 2

In addition to extricating the US from LBJ’s mess in Vietnam, Nixon could point to other accomplishments during his term.  On July 20, 1969, the US became the first (and thus far only) nation to put astronauts on the moon, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin.  The moon landing by Apollo 11, watched by over 53 million Americans and over 10 times that number worldwide, was the culmination of a decade-long effort inaugurated by President Kennedy to put a man on the moon, in no small part to impress upon the world—particularly the Russians—of America’s technological superiority.  Aside however from the international prestige the US received from winning “the space race” with the Soviet Union, there was little materially to be gotten from the effort.  The US sent astronauts to the moon on five other occasions, the last being the Apollo 17 mission in 1972.  The huge expense of the missions and lack of public interest following the first moon landing, led to the end of lunar program.  Amazingly, imo, we went to the moon over 50 years ago on 1960s technology and we are nowhere near making it say to Mars today. Of course such grand endeavors require public support which is lacking. Much cheaper to indulge in scientific fantasies like the Star Wars series then actually going to another planet. (For those folks who believe the moon landings were an elaborate hoax, the Soviets were monitoring each landing and there is no way US intelligence could have fooled the Russians.  If they hadn’t happened the Soviets would have had every incentive to “blow the whistle”, and they didn’t because the landings all took place.  But people love conspiracy theories.

Nixon also had a major diplomatic coup. In 1972 he travelled to China and met with Mao and other communist leaders which put the US and China on the road to normalizing relations.  Nixon was taking advantage of a riff between China and the Soviet Union which had emerged over tactics on how best to spread communism, the Chinese-Soviet border, and China’s nuclear program. Nixon—rather successfully—sought to use tensions between the two communist giants to pressure both into limiting their expansionist goals and turning down the heat on the Cold War.  Nixon also successfully promoted détente with the Soviet Union, visiting Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev in Moscow in May 1972 which led to the US and Soviet Union agreeing to limit the number of nuclear missile launchers (known as the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks or SALT)

Below: Richard Nixon

Nixon’s successful foreign policy, from Vietnam to China to the Soviet Union, diverted attention from an economy that was struggling.  Unemployment topped 6% in 1971 and inflation was approaching 6% as well.  In part the economy was suffering from competition from a fully recovered western Europe and Japan, and the massive deficit spending needed to fund LBJ’s war in Vietnam and social programs. Nixon responded by imposing a 90 day “freeze” on prices and wages to combat inflation.  The move was politically popular and temporarily successful. Inflation would later surge however in the mid- and late 70s due to a dramatic rise in oil prices. (Unlike today, the US was then a net importer of oil)

In any case, the Vietnam War was virtually over, the economy ok, and the Cold War less cold, all of which suggested an easy reelection for Nixon in 1972. By the election, Nixon attained something he had wanted since his first run for the presidency in 1960:  the respect and admiration of most Americans.  His popularity did not translate into likeability however.  Nixon often appeared to be defensive, tense, and not forthcoming at televised press conferences, addresses, and  public appearances.  His relationship with the press was strained who he viewed as generally favoring Democrats over Republicans.  Yet most Americans could overlook his personality traits and appreciate his leadership, particularly in foreign policy, so Nixon was strong going into the election. 

The Democrats chose South Dakota Senator George McGovern to face Nixon.  McGovern campaigned on a promise to end a war that Nixon was already clearly ending, easing Cold War tensions that Nixon was already lessoning, and dramatically cutting defense spending when as percentage of GDP it was already declining.  McGovern also promised to spend more on social welfare programs when the country had already seen their greatest expansion under LBJ since the New Deal.

It all added up to one of the greatest landslides in presidential election history.  With nearly 61% of the popular vote, Nixon won 49 states losing only liberal Massachusetts and the District of Columbia (see map below).  McGovern failed to win even his home state.

 

So how would it be, that such a popular president would resign barely a year and half into his second term?  The seed that destroyed Nixon’s presidency was planted even before the election took place.  Incredibly, many within the Nixon campaign feared that somehow he might lose. Campaign managers arranged for a burglary at Democratic National Committee headquarters located at the Watergate Hotel in D.C. on June 17, 1972 in an effort to gain information on the McGovern campaign. The five burglars were caught by a security guard. 

Nixon denied any previous knowledge of the break-in. Indeed the extensive Congressional investigations that followed indicated Nixon had been unaware of the burglary attempt , but nevertheless within a week he ordered a cover-up by high level administration officials by obstructing the FBI and the Justice Department from investigating.

The Watergate story was slow to unfold and what appeared to be a minor burglary attempt by rogue campaign officials obviously did not affect the election.  Yet, the story continued to grow.  Investigation of the administration’s cover-up, increasingly revealed in no small part by the work of two Washington Post reporters, Carl Bernstein and Bod Woodward, resulted in Congressional investigations. Unfortunately for Nixon, his landslide reelection nonetheless left Democrats solidly in control of the House and Senate. 

What ultimately did Nixon in was the Supreme Court ordering the president to turn over tapes of conversations recorded by the White House’s taping system designed to record “history”, but which also recorded Nixon ordering the coverup.  (Nixon unwittingly failed to order the system turned off when discussing the Watergate affair with his advisors)

Public opinion gradually turned against Nixon and the House of Representatives readied itself for impeachment hearings accusing the president of obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and subverting the Constitution.  A group of Republican senators told Nixon they did not have enough votes to stop his conviction and removal from office once inevitably impeached in the House and then subsequently tried in the Senate.

Nixon decided to avoid the ignominy of being the only president to be convicted on impeachment charges, instead resigned on August 9, 1974 before full impeachment proceedings in the House could take place.

Below: After his resignation, Nixon, putting his best face on the humiliating experience, boards a helicopter to leave the White House for the last time as president. 

His successor, former Vice-President Gerald Ford, issued a blanket pardon for Nixon a month later, preventing criminal prosecution for any federal crimes he may have committed.  The pardon,  Ford claimed—not without merit—was to protect the country from the spectacle of having a former president put on trial in what many would have perceived as a political as opposed to judicial prosecution, something non-democratic countries were prone to doing. 

While Nixon was clearly guilty of obstruction of justice and abuse of power, it is by no means clear that had Republicans controlled Congress, he would have been forced to resign or if there would have even been hearings.  Democrats gleeful took advantage of the Republican president’s troubles and following his resignation expanded their Congressional majorities in the 1974 midterm elections. Since Nixon’s resignation, two presidents have been impeached (Clinton and Trump—the latter twice, though neither convicted) while Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barrack Obama all confronted Congressional partisan calls for impeachment that never materialized. Impeachment it seems has become a weapon in the hands of both parties to seek political advantage.

Ford’s pardon of Nixon, which he hoped would unify the country, did not.  Republicans cheered his decision and Democrats blasted it.   

Ford, formerly Minority Leader in the House of Representative from Michigan, became the first and only vice-president appointed under the 25th amendment. He had not been elected vice-president but appointed by Nixon and confirmed by Congress following V-P Spiro Agnew’s resignation in October 1973.  Under federal investigation, Agnew resigned after pleading “no contest” as part of a plea agreement to a single charge of tax evasion)  After Ford's pardon of Nixon, Democrats insinuated, without evidence, that there had been a corrupt bargain between Ford and Nixon whereby the latter would name the former as vice-president in exchange for the former giving the latter a pardon if he needed one.

Ford, however, won many Americans over with his unassuming, modest, and honest demeanor, and to the surprise of many political pundits nearly won reelection in 1976, losing only by a narrow margin to the Democratic candidate, Georgia governor Jimmy Carter—who arguably had an even more unassuming, modest, and honest demeanor.  Carter had been a “dark horse” or surprise candidate, trouncing better known Democrats in the primaries in which he campaigned as an outsider uncorrupted by Washington politics. He also positioned himself as a moderate Democrat on economic issues so as not to scare tax-averse independent voters with promises of big spending programs and new taxes.  Ford was hurt, not only by his pardoning of Nixon, but by creeping inflation that had taken hold in the country, eroding savings, and diminishing consumer purchasing power. The result was Carter’s win (see map below)

Carter’s presidency was also plagued by inflation driven by rising oil prices. Ever increasing demand for oil by the United States, western Europe, and Japan led the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to restrict production in order to raise prices. Consequently the price of a barrel of oil rose from as low as $3 in 1970 to $34 by the end of the decade.  The price of everything made from petroleum skyrocketed from gasoline to plastics. The annual inflation rate in 1971 that stood at 3.3% reached 13.3% in 1979.  Furthermore the cost of borrowing increased as well, with interest rates that stood at 5% at the beginning of the decade hitting 18% by it’s end. Unemployment also increased to over 7% in 1980. The relatively high unemployment rate was unusual given the also high inflation levels, as inflation usually correlates with lower unemployment rates.  This anomaly, created by high interest rates and unpredictable economic environment created by surging oil prices discouraged businesses from hiring more workers, came to be known as “stagflation”.

Below: Jimmy Carter

In addition to the nation’s economic woes, increasingly blamed on Carter, the administration suffered under serious foreign problems. Carter was stunned by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 to prop up a failing communist government and which the US could do nothing to stop.  Worse, an Islamic revolution broke out in Iran leading to the overthrow of the US supported secular Shah (i.e., “king”) of Iran.  Shortly thereafter, angry Islamic revolutionary college students seized the US embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979.  With the new Iranian government’s support, over 60 US diplomatic personnel were held hostage for over 14 months. Much to the chagrin of the Carter administration, the television news networks kept count of each day the hostages were held keeping the story alive for the American public as the administration’s diplomatic efforts, along with one failed military rescue attempt, to free the hostages floundered. 

Making matters even worse for Carter as he approached his bid for reelection, the nation entered a recession for the first six months of 1980, with inflation remaining remarkably in double digits.  

The Republicans could smell victory and by far and away the party’s most popular politician, former actor and California governor Ronald Reagan, won the nomination.  His victory was a win for the conservative and populist wing of the party at the expense of the more moderate establishment wing represented by Ford and Nixon.  To keep moderates on board, Reagan selected former CIA director George H. W. Bush as his vice-presidential candidate.

The Carter campaign hoped that Reagan’s conservativism, which included a desire to cut federal budgets and programs while taking a more robust and arguably more dangerous approach to the Soviet Union, would turn off voters. It was a forlorn hope. Most Americans blamed Carter for the bad economy and a foreign policy that had failed to protect American citizens in their own embassy. Perhaps more importantly, Carter unintentionally expressed his pessimism over the country’s future, while Reagan offered unbridled optimism. (Reagan liked to quote American revolutionary Thomas Paine: “We have it in our power to begin the world over again.”).

Given the choice between the almost melancholy Carter and Reagan’s infectious enthusiasm, Americans gave the Republican a landslide victory. (See map below)

They also gave Reagan an unexpected bonus. Republicans took the Senate for the first time in nearly 40 years (though Democrats maintained control of the House)

Below: Ronald Reagan

Although the Iranians and the Carter administration had finally worked out a deal to free the hostages, Iran’s government, in an intentional final humiliation to Carter, released them only minutes after Reagan was inaugurated on January 21, 1980. The Iranian regime had found itself in a war with neighboring Iraq and feared that Reagan might take some robust military action against it, and had decided finally to end the crisis.

Shortly after Reagan's inauguration, the nation entered its second recession in two years beginning in July 1981, with unemployment eventually reaching nearly 11%.  Reagan responded in a very Keynesian way: he ramped up federal spending and cut taxes.  Reagan and the Democratic House of Representatives came to an understanding. Whereas the president wanted to cut social spending and increase military spending, and Democrats wanted to increase social spending and cut military spending, they ultimately agreed to raise both and cut nothing but taxes. 

This combined with declining oil prices that reduced inflation, created an economic boom that not only lifted the country out of the recession but launched an economic expansion that would last over 7 ½ years.  (The US and other western nations had significantly reduced oil consumption ultimately unraveling OPEC’s production limits and price-fixing schemes as oil producing states ramped up production, hence lowering prices, to maintain profits by selling more rather than less oil.  Americans, for their part, had turned down the lights, bought fuel efficient cars, and accepted a 55-mph speed-limit to help bring down the cost of petroleum)

By 1984 inflation had decreased by 2/3 since Reagan took office to just under 4% while unemployment was just above 7%.  Reagan’s success in battling the recession made him a heavy favorite for reelection.  While Republicans loved Reagan and liberals/progressives despised him (largely for his increased military spending and tough rhetoric against the Soviet Union), the president had won over not only most independents but also many working--class white Democrats, often referred to as…” Reagan Democrats.”

Much of Reagan’s success came from his easy-going public persona and ability to handle Democratic and often hostile press attacks without getting mad. The problem for partisan Democrats going into the 1984 election was that most Americans just liked Ronald Reagan.

They also admired his grit and sense of humor, examples of which occurred on March 31, 1981, when a psychologically disturbed (aren’t they all?) would-be assassin by the name of John Hinkley, Jr. shot and wounded Reagan in the chest outside a D.C. hotel after attending a union conference. The 70-year-old president nearly died but following emergency surgery recovered remarkably quickly.  Much of the public marveled not only at Reagan’s recovery--he returned to the White House April 11--but his composure after being seriously wounded.  Joking to his wife on the way to the operating table, Reagan remarked “Honey, I forgot to duck,” and before being put under anesthesia saying to his surgeon and nurses “I hope you are all Republicans.”

Hinckley, who suffered from schizophrenia, shot Reagan because he thought it would impress actress Jody Foster…it didn’t.  Hinckley was found not guilty by reason of insanity but confined to a psychiatric hospital.  He was conditionally released in 2016 into the care of his mother.

Below John Hinckley, Jr. shortly following his arrest.  Below that, actress Jodi Foster circa 1981

For the 1984 election the Democrats nominated Carter’s vice-president, Walter Mondale who had…no chance.  Reagan won the election in a landslide losing only Mondale’s home state of Minnesota and D.C., while taking nearly 59% of the popular vote.  See map below

While Reagan’s second term continued the strong economy, his long term legacy stemmed however from his foreign policy, specifically his ultimate role—albeit at times controversial—in bringing about in an end to the Cold War and the collapse of communism in eastern Europe and the Soviet Union.

The USSR had been significantly outspending the US on its military, particularly nuclear weapons (but also on its war in Afghanistan where both Islamic and secular insurgents were given Soviet forces an expected difficult fight). Reagan believed that the US needed to upgrade its military, including its nuclear forces, to deter the Soviets from making more mischief. Reagan actually not only believed in arms control but hoped to dramatically reduce both nations nuclear weapons to the point of one day eliminating them altogether. Conversely however, he believed before the Soviet Union would agree to serious reductions in nuclear arms, the US would have to further expand its own arsenal.

While the US spent less than the Soviet Union on its military, US spending was more efficient and its technology more advanced.  Reagan was particularly focused on building an anti-ballistic missile system that could intercept any Soviet missiles launched at the US or its NATO allies.  Whether such a system, known as the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) would, ever work well enough to prevent a significant number of Russian missiles from getting through and destroying the US in a nuclear war was hotly debated. Many scientists thought SDI, derogatorily dubbed Star Wars by its critics after the popular George Lucas films, effectively wouldn’t work.

Ironically, the Soviets feared that it very well might, thereby greatly reducing the deterrent effect of its nuclear arsenal. This led the Soviets to spend even more on its military...and putting an ever increasing strain on its economy. Domestic critics of Reagan’s defense buildup and SDI accused Reagan of trying to provoke war with the Soviet Union. His once joking about “bombing” Russia (he didn’t mean it) and calling the Soviet Union “an evil empire” (he meant that, and it was) sent the Russians and Reagan’s Democratic critics into fits of near hysteria.

Compounding growing Cold War tensions, was the fact that Reagan had to deal with four different Soviet leaders in four years as Leonid Brezhnev died aged 75 in 1982, followed by Yuri Andropov two years later at 69, and subsequently Konstantin Chernenko aged 73 in 1985. The ageing Soviet elite were dropping like flies!  Finally, the Soviet Communist Party chose a younger man, Mikhail Gorbachev, 54, to be its General Secretary (the de facto leader of the Soviet Union)

Unlike the previous Soviet leaders, Gorbachev recognized that the USSR economically could not compete with the US and maintain huge military expenditures while still falling further behind in technology. He moved to not only curtail defense expenditures but also sought to reform communism to make it more economically competitive through what was called perestroika (“restructuring”) i.e., to allow more local as opposed to central government control of production of goods and services.  He also believed that the strict press censorship (only what the Communist Party approved could be published or broadcast) and policing of the speech of Soviet citizens prevented the emergence of competitive ideas that were necessary for a technological society to develop and advance.  Consequently, he encouraged some (albeit not total) criticism of the Party’s practices (called glasnost or “openness”) in hopes of ultimately finding ways to make Soviet society more efficient while still communist.

Gorbachev (in the West frequently referred to as “Gorby”) was unlike his predecessors willing to seriously negotiate with Reagan. Gorbachev and Reagan developed not only a friendly but more importantly a successful working relationship.  A landmark agreement was reached between the two leaders to remove all intermediate range nuclear missiles from Europe.  The Soviets had balked from removing their own missiles until Reagan had successfully insisted upon putting new American missiles in western Europe. Reagan believed in “Peace through strength” i.e., to get meaningful agreements from one’s adversaries one needed to operate from a position of power. Critics called the approach “warmongering” and warned it would bring about a nuclear holocaust, instead it brought about the elimination of thousands of nuclear weapons in Europe.

In his efforts to reduce the burdens of military spending on Russia, Gorby withdrew Soviet troops from Afghanistan (ending what some called “Russia’s Vietnam”) and announced that henceforth the Soviet Union would no longer militarily interfere in the internal affairs of Warsaw Pact nations.  In June 1989 the Polish communist party was ousted in the first truly free elections held in that country since before WWII.  In August, Hungary opened its borders, breaching the Iron Curtain and allowed its citizens to travel to western Europe. East Germans who were permitted to travel Hungary, from there traveled to Austria, and then to West Germany.  Desperate to stop the flow, East Germany closed its borders, leading to nationwide protests that brought down not only the Berlin Wall but also the government in November 1989.  One-by-one communist regimes, no longer propped up by the Soviet military, collapsed. The following year, West and East Germany reunited creating one Federal German Republic. Finally, in 1991, it was the Soviet Union’s turn to collapse leaving Gorbachev to be the last communist leader of Russia.  He had never intended things to go so far, but once the breach had been made, he was unwilling and possibly powerless to stop it.

Below: Reagan and Gorbachev meet for the first time at Geneva, Switzerland in November 1985.  The two had five meetings over the course of Reagan's presidency from which not only mutual respect but a friendship developed, beginnings of which are evident in this photo, that set the stage for end of the Cold War.

(Reagan, reminiscent of Kennedy, giving a speech to a crowd in Berlin on June 12, 1987 challenged the Soviet leader “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”  Amazingly to most, he effectively wound up doing so. See link to the key portion of Reagan's address--Ronald Reagan: "Mr. Gorbachev, Tear Down This Wall!" - Bing video (Links to an external site.))

Although the collapse of eastern Europe’s communist regimes took place in the months just following Reagan leaving office in January 1989, (his V-P George H. W. Bush was elected president the previous November) most everyone understood that it was Ronald Reagan’s military buildup, his hardline against Gorbachev’s predecessors, along with his flexibility and friendship with the last Soviet leader, that had brought about the end of the Cold War.  Amazingly, almost nobody had predicted the fall of the Iron Curtain, including US intelligence services which believed Soviet communism stable and capable of lasting indefinitely. It’s not too far of a stretch to say only one man thought otherwise.  The president that many claimed would bring about nuclear war with the Soviet Union had instead played a major role in bringing about that nation’s demise and the threat of nuclear war with it.