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Changes to the Retail Environment.pptx

Changes in the UK Retail Landscape

The last 5 years

2013 to now………. and onwards

So just a few words about me.

I’m Sue Dunn and I’m a Retail Consultant, running my own business advising clients about matters retail.

I’ve been in the business for many years, with a particular experience in Department Stores, having been Concession Director for Womenswear and Fashion Accessories at House of Fraser, leaving in 2012.

After that, I’ve worked with Department Stores, Brands across the market including retailers, concession players, airports, garden centres….

It’s given me the opportunity of understanding how retailers and brands operate, in strategy, in buying and merchandising, and in store layout and operations.

Today I want to talk about the UK Retail Landscape – it’s a particularly interesting (and difficult) time for Retail

2

So, back in 2013 do you remember…

Billboard’s Top artists are:

Bruno Mars, Taylor Swift, Justin Timberlake and Rihanna

Most watched TV programme – Andy Murray winning Wimbledon with 12.1m UK viewers

Netflix is the breakthrough brand, (larger than Amazon and Hulu) with its first foray into original content with the debut of House of Cards

Top films include The Wolf of Wall Street, Frozen and 12 Years a Slave

Season 3 of Game of Thrones

Page 1

Let’s take ourselves back 5 years.

It’s not long – but it’s also a very long time indeed…..

This is where we were, then

3

So, back in 2013 do you remember…

Top Fashion Brands we love (based on a survey)

Converse, Vans, Levis, Adidas, Nike, Diesel,

Cath Kidston, Dr Martens, All Saints

Instagram 150m monthly active users

Top global brands

1 – Apple 3 – Google 5 – Walmart 8 – Amazon

Top volume UK Retailers

Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, M&S, JLP,

The Co-op

Page 2

When I looked for the top Fashion Brands the information came fron a survey done from 15-24 year olds about their most recognized brands.

And a lot of them are still there……though not sure where Cath Kidson came from.

Take a good look at the top Global Brands. Walmart was an iconic US retailer. Top of the game.

And I want you to truly appreciate where the volume of UK retail hangs out.

Of course it’s the supermarkets – but there are a couple of general retailers there, too

4

What about now?

Last year, Billboard’s top spot was

Ed Sheeran …..and Rihanna down to 18

Most watched TV programme – Blue Planet II with

14m UK viewers

Netflix is now the largest film studio in the world,

producing as many films in the first 4 months of

2018 than the top 6 studios combined

Top films include Mission Impossible – Fallout,

A Star is Born, Deadpool 2

Game of Thrones Season 8 coming in 2019

Page 3

And now, just at the end of 2018, where are we?

Ed Sheeran – now there’s a clever marketer if there ever was one – is at the top of Billboard’s listing. Rihanna’s been doing other things, including the hugely successful Fenty Beauty.

People do still watch the TV, especially where David Attenborough and nature is concerned.

But now it’s also box sets and Netflix and the development of the last is enormous. I hadn’t realized it was the size of 6 Hollywood studios in terms of volume production.

And can you believe Game of Thrones has got to season 8? Well, nearly.

5

What about now?

Top Fashion brands we love

(based on reactions, comments, shares, retweets and likes)

PrettyLittleThing.com, Primark, boohoo.com,

Topshop, Pandora, Missguided

Instagram 1bn monthly active users

Top global brands in 2018

1 – Amazon 2 – Apple 3 – Google 9 - Walmart

Top volume UK Retailers

Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, JLP, Aldi,

M&S, The Co-op, Amazon

Page 4

The top Fashion brands come from a very different source….

The growth of Instagram is incredible

And here come the top global brands again.

Let me remind you –

Just a couple of slides back it was

1 – Apple 3 – Google 5 – Walmart 8 – Amazon

Now Amazon’s 1, Apple and Google have slipped back, and Walmart’s dropped further.

More on Amazon later.

And on the Top Volume retailers, the same old suspects feature, but – do you see Aldi nipping in there ahead of M&S, and Amazon (them again) slotting on the end?

6

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Retail is both

a key industry in the UK

5.7% of Gross Domestic Product in 2013 and 5% in 2017

Employing nearly 3m people

and also

a unique indicator of consumer confidence…..

After the 2008 credit crash, retail growth was weak -

in 2013/2014 growth stronger than the UK economy

but by 2017 and 2018 growth had slowed

Page 5

A bit more about Retail generally.

It’s a huge business, on its own 5% plus of the total UK GDP

And it employs a lot of people.

Many of them are women

And many of them at the sharp end work part time, often locally, adding their income to the family.

Cutting back jobs affects them badly

Adding robots to warehouses doesn’t help either.

The retail business was badly hit by the 2008 credit crunch and was slow to recover.

There was growth afterwards, but it’s slowed in 2017/18

Many retailers have said to me that they have never, in a career of many years with many ups and downs, seen trading as difficult as it is now.

I think you can say that in the UK there are a number of reasons, with cost increases affecting retailers badly – Living Wage, Apprenticeship Levy, Weak sterling, Business rates, low consumer confidence – and Brexit has affected the whole UK inckuding (according to Lord Wolfson at Next)in finding staff

7

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

More discounting

Black Friday started here by Amazon in 2010, with Asda (owned by US Walmart) joining in 2013, then followed by others 2014 onwards.

Now includes Cyber Monday, and discounts often apply well ahead – and after – the day itself

Promotional events like Mega Days, Big Brand Events, 25% off days

Once just twice a year, Spring and Autumn, increased to many more to drive footfall

Simple to advertise via email….

Page 6

One aspect I’ve been noticing for many years is the increase in discounting.

We’ve just had Black Friday, which is a relatively new introduction to the UK.

I can recall at HoF having a Big Brand Event at the end of November to kick start Christmas trading – we used to use it to mark down items which would be more heavily discounted in the Winter Sale.

Some retailers still use it tactically like that – but others have also taken large percentages off their whole range. This doesn’t help build profit.

I also believe that the UK population has been educated to believe that retailers ‘rip them off’ and that the reduced price is the ‘right price’.

Once you get into a discount-led cycle, then indeed you may have raised the original price to get room to offer the discount. So it can be a self-fulfilling prophesy,

For a really good example of this, look at Gap.

So what this should say is LESS TRADING TIME AT FULL MARGIN

8

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

More discounting

Sale periods last longer

Winter: from early December to mid February

Summer: from an end May promotion to mid August

Mid season Sale March/April and October

Depth of discounts increased

Once 20/30% to launch, followed by 40/50%

Now 30% needed, followed by 50/70% off

Page 7

You can see that with the length of SALE periods

As with all addictions, you need bigger discounts these days to get the same effect….

Pressure on price.

And bear in mind, with the effect of Brexit on sterling, product has got generally more expensive to source

A retailer has to think very hard now before passing that cost increase on to the consumer….

9

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Growth of value retailing

Aldi had 300 UK stores in 2013, and now has 620+

Market share has grown 30% over last 2 years to 6.9%

Ahead of M&S in terms of retail volume

Lidl opened its 700th store in 2018 and has 5.3% market share

They both focus marketing on best product at best value prices

Primark sales worldwide 2013 £4.27bn, +22% on the year

2017 sales worldwide £7.05bn, +19% on the year – increase of 65% in 5 years

29% of UK clothing purchases in the year to Oct 2017 came from Primark

Page 8

This pressure on prices is seen in another way with the growth of what are often called ‘discounters’ –

But really they are just retailers who manipulate the model to be able to offer lead-in prices.

Both Aldi and Lidl do that by limiting their ranges, having only Own Buy, and creating their own brands – though the packaging and name often resembles familiar brands.

And the offer – and the retail disciplines – of these valued retailers has really improved over recent years.

If you shop value prices, these days you’re seen as a savvy shopper, not pitied because you can’t afford better

10

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Growth of value retailing

Supermarket clothing offers continue to be important

George (Asda) 2nd largest UK clothing retailer by volume

TU (Sainsbury’s) 6th largest

They and F&F (Tesco) are using excess grocery space to increase fashion and drive footfall

Nutmeg (Morrison’s) introduced Womens/Mens offer to Baby/Kids

Page 9

I’ve done some work with Supermarkets on their clothing ranges, and if you’re not familiar with them I’d urge you to have a look.

Some are better merchandised than others, some tell really attractive fashion stories.

But they all have a good value proposition.

Are they stealing sales from the other parts of the market?

Well, what do you think?

11

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Trouble in the middle market

With a slower growth overall, increase in value retailing and continuing strength in top end designer (helped by the weakness of sterling), this has left the middle market vulnerable.

In 2017 Next – considered the lynchpin of the High Street - suffered “the most challenging year we have faced for 25 years”, and trading since then has continued to be difficult.

It has responded by giving space in stores to other brands and concessions and – for the first time this year – running a Black Friday promotion

Other mid-market brands have suffered footfall declines whilst trading as concessions within struggling department stores

M&S is still working on its strategy as it continues to lose market share– with at least 5 more years still to go to completion

Page 10

It’s been a particularly difficult time in the middle market with many retailers finding it very difficult to secure positive LFL sales in stores, whilst overall costs increased and further online technical inprovedments demanded investment.

Next – a very successful retailer over many years – and regarded as a key indicator of the overall health of retailing generally, found that sales had fallen, their prices were too high compared with Zara, which had at the same time begun attracting the slightly older Next shopper by improving their size offer amongst other things

Next is now diversifying and including other brands in its offer to take up over spacing in its stores.

This technique is now being followed by a number of ‘large box’ retailers, such as Tesco (with Arcadia concessions) and Sainsbury’s (with Argos, Habitat, and just announced Oasis)

12

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Closures in the High Street

Nearly 3000 bank branches have closed in the 3 years to 2018

BHS closed all 171 UK stores 2016 – 84 still empty in 2018

M&S planning 100 store closures by 2022 from its 970 store portfolio

Lloyds Pharmacy closing 190 UK stores

New Look closing 60 stores

Prezzo closed 94 stores 2018, other restaurant chains are retrenching (Byron’s, Carluccio’s)

ToysRUs closed 100 stores 2018

Mothercare closing 50 stores

Maplin closed 219 stores

Homebase closing 42 stores

Carpetright closing 92 stores

House of Fraser fell into administration August 2018, with Mike Ashley agreeing terms

- so far on 20 of its 59 stores

Debenhams planning on closing 50 of its 166 stores as soon as leases allow

Poundworld’s 350 stores closed

Store 21 closed its 120 stores in 2017

Brantano closed 73 stores in 2017

Austin Reed (Viyella & CC) closed 155 stores in 2017

Arcadia Brands (Top Shop, Top Man, Burtons, Miss Selfridge, Dorothy Perkins, Wallis, Evans)

– 41 shut last year

Carphone Warehouse closing 92 stores

Page 11

And you will, of course, have heard of the death of the high street.

Quite small writing on this slide, isn’t it – that’s of course because there are so many things vanishing.

Banks? I hear you say? How relevant is that to us?

Well, yet another thing that’s not there to attract you into town.

Another large and often unwieldy gap to fill

It looks bad.

It looks distressed. It lowers the tone

I live in Oxford. Recently – last Autumn – a big new shopping centre opened.

But half the retailers left the key shopping street (Cornmarket) to move to the new centre. And their empty shops haven’t been filled.

So now Next and River Island and Carphone Warehouse have boarded shops – hasn’t helped Fat Face, still gamely trading in the middle of them. It will recover, I’m sure – but it will take some time.

13

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Shopping Centres struggling?

The BBC reported in November that >200 UK Shopping centres were ‘struggling’

Often owned by US private equity firms, refinancing is now due - and the closures of big anchor stores like M&S, BHS, and ToysRus had led to a ‘downward spiral’

Possibly £2.5bn worth of Shopping Centres and Retail Parks could currently be up for sale across the UK.

New redevelopments could include moving in Libraries, Medical Centres and even schools

There are often good transport links and central locations, and City Councils are keen to support

Page 12

And closures of big anchor retailers doesn’t help small shopping centres either

There is now very active effort going on to recover High Streets and town centres.

The solution will vary from town to town depending on local requirements

Housing? Medical Centres?

It will definitely need flexiibity in rents from landlords, prices for car parks, adjustment in business rates, and local consumer involvement and support

Can it be done? Yes, in theory.

14

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

The death of the Department Store?

John Lewis (now John Lewis & Partners) announced zero profits for the first half of 2018, following substantial investment into the business

House of Fraser fell into administration in August 2018, and was bought by Mike Ashley of Sports Direct for £80m – only 20 stores of 59 so far saved

Debenhams reported its biggest annual loss, having previously issued 3 profit warnings

Commentators have spoken of the death of the concept, but the operators are focusing on adding excitement, novelty and experiences to their offer and reconfiguring space.

Additions include new Beauty services, food offers like gin bars, and a focus on customer service and personal shopping.

But there will be fewer stores…..

Page 13

And to add to the funeral, of course Department Stores are dead.

I do very much disagreed that they should disappear, but – as I know from experience – they are money pits.

Although you can in theory flex the space to what’s required, that does cost money and it’s disruptive whilst it’s going on.

But I do believe that there are many customers who want to touch and feel the product, to see and be inspired and find lots of things – as well as a cup of tea and a bun (or, all right then, a g&t) under one roof with a brand they trust.

But you can’t transform every store.

Debenhams have started, though. You should go and look and notice the differences

15

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Decline of fashion sales?

Pressure on household finances are said to have affected fashion sales – falling (0.5)% in 2018 after (0.8)% drop in 2017, and in 2016 Kantar reported a £(700)m loss in UK Fashion on the previous year

Womens fashion (4)% down in 2018 following (2.5)% decline in 2017

Commentators also suggest a ‘cyclical move away from spending on clothing” to experience-led eating out and travel.

Split in the market between ‘value’ and ‘rich experience at high-end stores/brands’, leaving the middle market exposed

Page 14

It does appear that sales of Fashion have been declining over recent years.

Is this because of a lack of confidence in the market overall?

Are consumers spending money on other things –

As well as rent, and travel to work?

Certainly speaks for the need for fashion retailers to be exciting and compelling and new.

16

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Growth of online

In 2013, online represented 10% of retail sales

In 2018, online is forecast to represent 18%, an increase of 1 further percentage point over 2017

Driven increasingly by mobile commerce, which is forecast to grow by 16% pa

UK is the third largest world mcommerce market (behind China&US)

Online is more popular in the UK than any other EU Country

In 2017 82% of UK residents made at least one online purchase

UK fashion online is growing, whilst bricks-and-mortar declines – though the mix may plateau at 25% …..or maybe not

Page 15

At last – she’s got to the elephant in the room

The growth of online.

I’ll just go through these amazing stats which reflect 5 years of change

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What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Amazon….

Has spent £9.3bn on building 17 warehouses in the UK since 2010

It’s grown from £4.7bn UK revenue in 2013 to £8.8bn in 2017 - UK is its 4th biggest market

Comprises nearly 50% of all online UK sales

Expects to take a proportionate share of the £2,000 each UK customer is forecast to spend online this Christmas….

Creating the operational benchmark for all online traders in terms of breadth of offer, reliability, and swift, effective distribution

Page 16

And these are the terrifying details about Amazon.

It is indeed the benchmark for breadth of offer and execution.

Can it succeed in the Fashion clothing market?

Well, of course just introducing the trial in which you can select a number of garments to be delivered to your home, try on and choose which (if any) you want, and have them collected – only then do you pay..

How will that work? We wait to see.

They’re also opening pop-up shops, to ‘research’ bricks-and-mortar retailing.

I’ve heard that they’ve not got this right just yet.

But looking at their history, you have to say they’ll keep trying till they do.

A challenge to all

18

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

UK online fashion retailers have invested in technology

84% of young women 15-24 shop clothing online, and 54% of over 45’s

But only 15% buy all their clothes online, with returns continuing to be a profit and logistics issue for retailers

So technology innovations in the cleverest retailers help with size and fit questions

And increasingly omnichannel experience, not just multichannel is the target…..

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Page 17

Online fashion brings with it its own difficulties.

Fit is critical

Not only for customer satisfaction, but to cut down the issues surrounding returns.

Reverse logistics never used to be a thing.

Now it’s what retailers focus on, to ensure that returned garments are recycled into the stock as fast as possible.

Cutting down the volume of returns can make a substantial difference to the bottom line.

As well as technology enrolling customers and building brand loyalty.

The ASOS move to show the same garment on 3 different models came from their young R&D team who thought what customers wanted

Not what ASOS thought they needed

More investment needs to be done. Many fashion sites don’t show store stock of an online garment. In my view that’s now essential.

19

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

The key issues of ethical sourcing and sustainability have come to the fore.

In 2013 the collapse of the Rana Plaza clothing factory complex in Bangladesh (2nd largest world exporter of readymade garments) killed more than 1100 people.

Subsequently more than 50 brands and retailers – now grown to more than 200 from 20 European countries - signed up to a legally binding safety agreement, with annual contributions funding rigorous regular independent inspections.

Horrifyingly, clothing and fashion is second only to the oil industry in its polluting effect on the world. Chemicals are used in its production, it overuses water, and discarded clothing ends up in huge landfills.

Increasingly fashion companies are putting sustainability policies at the top of the agenda to minimize the effects, including signing up to sustainable cotton supplies, and this is also leading to a wider consumer conversation about re-cycling fashion and ‘more expensive, less often’ purchasing.

Cultural changes will have an ongoing effect on the industry

Page 18

Most customers "want" fashion companies to have a positive environmental and ethical credentials, yet very few actively seek out sustainable brands and products and brands.

£82m The amount it costs the UK economy a year for sending clothing and household textiles to landfill

500,000 The number of tonnes of microfibres that are released into the oceans every year during clothes washing

2050 The year that the fashion industry will have used up 25% of the world’s carbon budget

3% The drop in EBIT margin companies can expect by 2030 if they do not invest in sustainability  

20

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Technology is leading changes in how retailers market their brand

TV advertising – though still attracting spend – is now much less important, as is print (many magazines moving to digital only)

With this digital focus, marketers are using technology to directly target consumers – data analysis is a powerful tool

Social media has become a key route, with 3.4bn global active users in 2018

And new techniques include

Chatbots on online sites (personal, swift, brand-engaging communication)

Voice search, following the recent introduction of Alexa and other voice assistants – in the US alone, use is forecast to increase by >130% this year.

Influencer marketing – where a real person’s opinion carries more weight

Page 19

What’s been happening over those 5 years?

Speed – and volume – of reaction and response - a message can now spread round the world in moments, bringing sometimes unanticipated effects

Two recent examples:

D&G had a disappointing response to their targeted advertising for the Chinese market, and their Instagram response wasn’t great

Shanghai Fashion Show cancelled, demonstrations, key retailers/e-comm sites delisted the brand, gross effect on a major market and worldwide turnover/profit

Iceland “Palm Oil” advert gained more exposure and views at tiny cost than a major TV advertising campaign

Page 17

Page 20

I wanted to mention the importance today of total brand focus. And the speed with which things can now happen

You’ll have seen the effect of poor PR on D&G in China?

Would this have happened 5 years ago? I don’t think so..

And look at how Iceland cleverly maximized their advertising spend – or lack of it – by having their advert banned.

Did they plan that? Quite possibly

22

A time of continual great change.

A time for creative thinking.

A time of huge opportunity….

How to ‘save’ the High Street?

How to drive more customer engagement…

and more full margin sales?

Who are the customers and what do they want?

How to make a business really customer focused?

What does omnichannel look like,

and how much will it cost?

So – what’s next?

Page 21

So yes, there have been many changes in the retail landscape

There are definitely some retail CEOs who are frightened and uncertain, cutting costs, and fearing technology, as well as Generation X, Millennials, Generations X and Y

There will be changes to come, some we’ve absolutely not anticipated, that’s for sure.

Should we panic?

23

Key retail disciplines are still the same

7 key points for successful brands (and retailers)

“audience knowledge, uniqueness, passion, consistency, competitiveness, exposure and leadership.” (Forbes)

Aldi/Lidl have enticed more affluent customers into stores with lobster and 30 day aged sirloin steak – quality across the board, highlighted in advertising

Primark have increased fashionability and exclusive and fun ranges targeted at their customer whilst keeping low prices

Hermès at the other end of the market focus on quality, refinement and craftsmanship as well as exclusivity – no need to ask the price

Page 22

Well, actually I don’t think so.

I think what we’ve got is a huge opportunity, and really the retail disciplines are still the same.

Retail isn’t rocket science.

Largely, it’s thinking about the customer.

I think these principles are worth noting and remembering

Let’s take a couple of the success stories we’ve already mentioned.

Aldi/Lidl took up the challenge in the UK when the existing supermarkets increased prices after the 2008 credit crunch.

They’ve proved their reliability and consistency and now – with their luxury ranges (which aren’t high margin) are attracting the ‘savy shopper’ (ex Waitrose and Sainsbury’s) who also buys theirmain range.

Primark has introduced interesting ranges (hello Harry Potter and Love Island) and – without a website – has exciting shops and fantastic prices

Hermes, on the other hand, is completely focused on the other end of the market

24

Key retail disciplines are still the same

Whilst – as we’ve seen – 25% of fashion purchases may soon be made online this means that 75% won’t, and will come from bricks-and-mortar.

A store competing with online – some ideas….

Enhance in-store experience (see Zara’s use of technology)

Make payment/refunds/interaction quicker and easier

Step up service with educated staff, equipped with i-pads and technology to find product for customer from anywhere in the business and get it to them where they need it

Use in-store events to create a buzz (Like Hotel Chocolat’s lock-ins)

A truly omni-channel business (not just multi-channel) so that at every touch point (not just within one route to market) the customer relates to the brand…

Page 23

Yes, of course online is important.

But even if it were to grow to 40% of the mix, there’d still be 60% from bricks-and-mortar

So – again focused on the customer – we need to be omnichannel.

Do you think a customer wants to hear that her faulty item, bought online, can’t be returned to a store?

Does she want to wait hours in a queue of shoppers to collect her online purchase which she bought that way to save tine?

Does she want to visit a store and see a graphic highlighting an online only offer which she can’t buy till she gets home?

Does she struggle to use her mobile app because it’s all too small to see?

Well no.

25

Key retail disciplines are still the same

A real customer focus online and in store

Who is your customer, what are her needs and for what occasion

How can you reach her – by influencer, by magazine, by social media, by personal approach

What’s the best fit, size and product design for her

What “stories” are you telling her, what’s your signature so she understands you and is inspired by things she’s not thought of

Can she find your product and buy it easily, do you tell her what made you excited about it

Do you live up to your promises

Have you followed her journey rigorously so that you know – and can correct – anything stopping her

The customer thinks it’s your privilege to serve her, not vice versa – do retailers really understand and respond to this?

Page 24

Just looking at a Womenswear customer

Are we really looking at what she wants, and how she wants to be told about it?

Are we telling ”stories” with our merchandise so the customer sees and understands?

Have you been in Matalan recently? Probably not

But they are a value retailer and specialize in being customer focused online and in store

Go and look.

See online the section about what to wear in the office when you’re back after maternity leave. How you can dress for an occasion What to pack for holiday.

Go into store and see comfortable celebrities talking on video screens about these subjects and find something to wear for an interview. (or a great value dress suit for your other half) See the product segmentation and the graphics explaining it

Not for everyone – but you can appreciate the care they’re taking and probably find a great jumper

And I’ve included these horror shots because you should always live up to your promises

26

Key retail disciplines are still the same

Watch your competition and know your market

Can you really be a “Harrods of the High Street” in Hull?

Who are your competitors, where do they sit and what’s their target?

Don’t be dismissive – they may be the ones with the next big idea….

Look in the stores and not just online – what stories are they telling? What’s their visual personality?

Page 25

I love retail because I find it endlessly interesting.

When I was at HoF, many brands would come to me wanting to enter our stores back then.

So I got to ask who they thought they were, who their competition was, why HoF was right for them and where would they sit in the floor layout,

And many of them didn’t know. Or hadn’t appreciated what their competitors were doing.

Or hadn’t looked at who HoF was, and was it a good match.

Nothing replaces getting out there and looking what the product looks like when you get there.

Or looking at a website and seeing if it represents who you are

27

The Retail Landscape

Much changed over the last 5 years, and due to change as much, if not more, over the next 5

but an ongoing, challenging, and exciting opportunity……………

Page 26

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MPT19 Wk9 Numeracy - OTB Exercises.xlsx

OTB Exercise 1

Sales £K Stock & Cover Intake Markdown
Week Act/Fcst Act/ Fcst Opening Stk Target Stk Opening Cover Total Intake Orders/ Act Intake OTB Total
1 83.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 13.3 185.0 2.0
2 100.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 12.0 203.0 3.0
3 123.0 1,300.0 1,300.0 10.6 227.0 4.0
4 149.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 9.4 203.0 4.0
Jan 455.0 5,000.0 11.0 818.0 13.0
5 139.0 1,450.0 1,450.0 10.4 100.0 7.0
6 139.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 10.8 100.0 7.0
7 139.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 10.8 100.0 7.0
8 178.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 8.4 87.0 9.0
Feb 595.0 5,950.0 10.0 387.0 30.0
9 137.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 10.9 48.0 11.0
10 128.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 11.7 38.0 10.0
11 131.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 11.5 41.0 10.0
12 134.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 11.2 45.0 11.0
13 134.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 11.2 0.0 11.0
Mar 664.0 7,500.0 11.3 172.0 53.0
Cum 1,714.0 18,450.0 10.8 1,377.0 96.0
14 158.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 9.5 65.0
15 167.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 9.0 30.0
16 135.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 10.4 4.0
17 135.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 10.4 4.0
Apr 595.0 5,800.0 9.7 0.0 103.0
18 136.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 10.3 4.0
19 125.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 11.2 4.0
20 194.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 7.2 6.0
21 176.0 1,300.0 1,300.0 7.4 5.0
May 631.0 5,500.0 8.7 0.0 19.0
22 132.0 1,192.0 1,192.0 9.0 80.0
23 117.0 980.0 980.0 8.4 42.0
24 150.0 821.0 821.0 5.5 5.0
25 88.0 666.0 666.0 7.6 3.0
26 73.0 575.0 575.0 7.9 2.0
Jun 560.0 4,234.0 7.6 0.0 132.0
Cum 3,500.0 33,984 9.7 1,377.0 350.0
27 500.0 500.0
2.7

OTB Answer 1

Sales £K Stock & Cover Intake Markdown
Week Act/Fcst Act/ Fcst Opening Stk Target Stk Opening Cover Total Orders/ Act Intake OTB Total
1 83.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 13.3 185.0 185.0 2.0
2 100.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 12.0 203.0 203.0 3.0
3 123.0 1,300.0 1,300.0 10.6 227.0 227.0 4.0
4 149.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 9.4 203.0 203.0 4.0
Jan 455.0 5,000.0 11.0 818.0 818.0 0.0 13.0
5 139.0 1,450.0 1,450.0 10.4 196.0 100.0 96.0 7.0
6 139.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 10.8 146.0 100.0 46.0 7.0
7 139.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 10.8 146.0 100.0 46.0 7.0
8 178.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 8.4 187.0 87.0 100.0 9.0
Feb 595.0 5,950.0 10.0 675.0 387.0 288.0 30.0
9 137.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 10.9 148.0 48.0 100.0 11.0
10 128.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 11.7 138.0 38.0 100.0 10.0
11 131.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 11.5 141.0 41.0 100.0 10.0
12 134.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 11.2 145.0 45.0 100.0 11.0
13 134.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 11.2 145.0 0.0 145.0 11.0
Mar 664.0 7,500.0 11.3 717.0 172.0 545.0 53.0
Cum 1,714.0 18,450.0 10.8 2,210.0 1,377.0 833.0 96.0
14 158.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 9.5 223.0 223.0 65.0
15 167.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 9.0 97.0 97.0 30.0
16 135.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 10.4 139.0 139.0 4.0
17 135.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 10.4 139.0 139.0 4.0
Apr 595.0 5,800.0 9.7 598.0 0.0 598.0 103.0
18 136.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 10.3 140.0 140.0 4.0
19 125.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 11.2 129.0 129.0 4.0
20 194.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 7.2 100.0 100.0 6.0
21 176.0 1,300.0 1,300.0 7.4 73.0 73.0 5.0
May 631.0 5,500.0 8.7 442.0 0.0 442.0 19.0
22 132.0 1,192.0 1,192.0 9.0 0.0 80.0
23 117.0 980.0 980.0 8.4 0.0 42.0
24 150.0 821.0 821.0 5.5 0.0 5.0
25 88.0 666.0 666.0 7.6 0.0 3.0
26 73.0 575.0 575.0 7.9 0.0 2.0
Jun 560.0 4,234.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 132.0
Cum 3,500.0 33,984 9.7 3,250.0 1,377.0 1,873.0 350.0
27 500.0 500.0
2.7

OTB Exercise 2

Retailer X
Open To Buy Exercise
Dept: Any Season: Any
Cat: All Current Week Target
* 12 weeks sales except at end of season
Sales £K Stock & Cover Intake Markdown Last Year Phasing Forward Req Set Stock
Week Date Act/Fcst Target Var Tgt% Var LY% Act/ Fcst Opening Stk Fwd Req Stk* Target Stk TY OPENING Cover LY OPENING Cover Tgt OPENING Cover Total Orders/ Act Intake OTB Target Total POS Clearance Target Sales Total MD POS Opening Stock Sales Mix Calendar Act/ Fcst Opening Stk TY OPENING Cover OTB Act/ Fcst Opening Stk TY OPENING Cover OTB
1 7-Jan-18 25.0 25.0 0.0% 7.3% 478.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.3 0.0 317.0 2.3% 478.0 19.1 44.0 325.0 13.0 25.0
2 14-Jan-18 30.0 30.0 0.0% 6.0% -25.0 497.0 -0.8 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.3 0.0 393.7 2.8% 497.0 16.6 49.0 325.0 10.8 30.0
3 21-Jan-18 37.0 37.0 0.0% 39.6% -55.0 516.0 -1.5 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 0.0 435.4 3.5% Chinese NY 2017 Jan 28th-Feb 2nd 516.0 13.9 52.0 325.0 8.8 37.0
4 28-Jan-18 45.0 45.0 0.0% 52.5% -92.0 531.0 -2.0 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.5 0.0 478.9 4.2% 531.0 11.8 42.0 325.0 7.2 70.0
Jan 137.0 137.0 0.0% 27.3% -172.0 -1.3 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 107.6 0.0 0.0 1,625.0 12.8% 2,022.0 14.8 187.0 1,300.0 9.5 162.0
5 4-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% 12.7% -137.0 528.0 -3.5 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.6 0.0 519.4 3.6% 528.0 13.5 42.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
6 11-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% -6.0% -176.0 531.0 -4.5 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.5 0.0 534.8 3.6% 531.0 13.6 37.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
7 18-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% -9.1% -215.0 529.0 -5.5 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.9 0.0 543.3 3.6% 529.0 13.6 34.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
8 25-Feb-18 50.0 50.0 0.0% 2.9% -254.0 524.0 -5.1 11.3 0.0 0.0 15.0 15.0 48.6 11.7 550.4 4.7% Planned Clearance Event 524.0 10.5 68.0 350.0 7.0 115.0
Feb 167.0 167.0 0.0% -0.4% -782.0 -4.7 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 167.6 11.7 0.0 2,147.9 15.6% 2,112.0 12.6 181.0 1,400.0 8.4 232.0
9 4-Mar-18 45.0 45.0 0.0% 2.0% -319.0 527.0 -7.1 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.1 0.0 540.1 4.2% 527.0 11.7 48.0 400.0 8.9 45.0
10 11-Mar-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 12.0% -364.0 530.0 -8.7 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.5 0.0 536.0 3.9% 530.0 12.6 45.0 400.0 9.5 42.0
11 18-Mar-18 43.0 43.0 0.0% -1.6% -406.0 533.0 -9.4 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.7 4.1 4.1 538.5 4.0% 533.0 12.4 40.0 400.0 9.3 43.0
12 25-Mar-18 44.0 44.0 0.0% -4.1% -449.0 530.0 -10.2 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.9 4.5 4.5 530.7 4.1% 530.0 12.0 51.0 400.0 9.1 44.0
13 1-Apr-18 44.0 44.0 0.0% 14.6% -493.0 537.0 -11.2 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.4 0.0 520.3 4.1% 537.0 12.2 30.0 400.0 9.1 144.0
Mar 218.0 218.0 0.0% 4.0% -2,031.0 -9.3 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 209.6 8.6 8.6 2,665.6 20.4% 2,657.0 12.2 214.0 2,000.0 9.2 318.0
Cum 522.0 522.0 0.0% 7.7% -2,985.0 -5.7 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 484.8 20.3 8.6 6,438.5 48.8% 6,791.0 13.0 582.0 4,700.0 9.0 712.0
14 8-Apr-18 49.0 49.0 0.0% 24.4% -537.0 523.0 -11.0 13.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 39.4 0.0 521.9 4.6% Easter Offers 523.0 9.7 30.0 500.0 9.3 54.0
15 15-Apr-18 52.0 52.0 0.0% 24.1% -591.0 499.0 -11.4 12.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 41.9 0.0 522.5 4.9% Easter Sunday April 16th 2017 499.0 8.8 550.0 500.0 8.8 57.0
16 22-Apr-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 1.0% -648.0 992.0 -15.4 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.6 0.0 520.6 3.9% 992.0 23.6 500.0 11.9 42.0
17 29-Apr-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 9.9% -690.0 950.0 -16.4 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.2 0.0 519.0 3.9% 950.0 22.6 500.0 11.9 42.0
Apr 185.0 185.0 0.0% 14.8% -2,466.0 -13.3 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 161.1 0.0 0.0 2,084.0 17.3% 2,964.0 15.2 580.0 2,000.0 10.3 195.0
18 6-May-18 37.0 37.0 0.0% 14.6% -732.0 908.0 -19.8 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.3 0.0 520.8 3.5% 908.0 24.5 500.0 13.5 37.0
19 13-May-18 34.0 34.0 0.0% 5.9% -769.0 871.0 -22.6 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.1 0.0 528.5 3.2% 871.0 25.6 500.0 14.7 34.0
20 20-May-18 53.0 53.0 0.0% 8.8% -803.0 837.0 -15.2 11.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 48.7 30.0 536.4 5.0% Planned Sale 837.0 15.8 500.0 9.4 103.0
21 27-May-18 48.0 48.0 0.0% 6.4% -906.0 734.0 -18.9 11.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 45.1 29.9 497.7 4.5% Planned Sale 734.0 15.3 500.0 10.4 234.0
May 172.0 172.0 0.0% 8.7% -3,210.0 -18.7 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 158.2 59.9 0.0 2,083.4 16.1% 3,350.0 19.5 0.0 2,000.0 11.6 408.0
22 3-Jun-18 45.0 45.0 0.0% 6.1% -979.0 661.0 -21.8 10.9 0.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 38.4 462.7 4.2% Planned Sale 661.0 14.7 661.0 14.7
23 10-Jun-18 40.0 40.0 0.0% 4.7% -1,074.0 566.0 -26.9 11.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 38.2 50.1 421.9 3.7% Planned Sale 566.0 14.2 566.0 14.2
24 17-Jun-18 51.0 51.0 0.0% 14.3% -1,139.0 501.0 -22.3 8.4 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 44.6 32.9 373.6 4.8% Father's Day 18th June 2017 501.0 9.8 501.0 9.8
25 24-Jun-18 30.0 30.0 0.0% 10.7% -1,215.0 425.0 -40.5 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.1 0.0 336.1 2.8% 425.0 14.2 425.0 14.2
26 1-Jul-18 25.0 25.0 0.0% 83.8% -1,245.0 395.0 -49.8 25.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 349.0 2.3% 395.0 15.8 395.0 15.8
Jun 191.0 191.0 0.0% 15.1% -5,652.0 -29.6 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 165.9 121.4 0.0 1,943.3 17.9% 2,548.0 13.3 0.0 2,548.0 13.3 0.0
Cum 1,070.0 1,070.0 0.0% 10.3% -14,313 -13.4 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 200.0 10.0 190.0 0.0 970.0 201.6 8.6 12,549 100.0% 15,653 14.5 1,162.0 11,248 10.4 1,315.0
27 8-Jul-18 -1,270.0 370.0 375.4 370.0 370.0
Stockturn -1.9 2.0 1.8 2.5
* Note, cover excludes POS

OTB Ex 2 Suggested OTB

Paul Smith
WSSI - Week 4, Exercise 1
Dept: Any Season: Any
Cat: All Current Week Target
* 12 weeks sales except at end of season
Sales £K Stock & Cover Intake Markdown Last Year Phasing Forward Req Set Stock
Week Date Act/Fcst Target Var Tgt% Var LY% Act/ Fcst Opening Stk Fwd Req Stk* Target Stk TY OPENING Cover LY OPENING Cover Tgt OPENING Cover Total Orders/ Act Intake OTB Target Total POS Clearance Target Sales Total MD POS Opening Stock Sales Mix Calendar Act/ Fcst Opening Stk TY OPENING Cover OTB Act/ Fcst Opening Stk TY OPENING Cover OTB
1 7-Jan-18 25.0 25.0 0.0% 7.3% 325.0 478.0 13.0 13.6 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 23.3 0.0 317.0 2.3% 478.0 19.1 44.0 325.0 13.0 25.0
2 14-Jan-18 30.0 30.0 0.0% 6.0% 400.0 497.0 13.3 13.9 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 28.3 0.0 393.7 2.8% 497.0 16.6 49.0 325.0 10.8 30.0
3 21-Jan-18 37.0 37.0 0.0% 39.6% 470.0 516.0 12.7 16.4 0.0 98.0 98.0 0.0 26.5 0.0 435.4 3.5% Chinese NY 2017 Jan 28th-Feb 2nd 516.0 13.9 52.0 325.0 8.8 37.0
4 28-Jan-18 45.0 45.0 0.0% 52.5% 531.0 531.0 11.8 16.2 0.0 42.0 42.0 0.0 29.5 0.0 478.9 4.2% 531.0 11.8 42.0 325.0 7.2 70.0
Jan 137.0 137.0 0.0% 27.3% 1,726.0 12.6 15.1 340.0 0.0 340.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 107.6 0.0 0.0 1,625.0 12.8% 2,022.0 14.8 187.0 1,300.0 9.5 162.0
5 4-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% 12.7% 528.0 528.0 13.5 15.0 0.0 42.0 42.0 0.0 34.6 0.0 519.4 3.6% 528.0 13.5 42.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
6 11-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% -6.0% 531.0 531.0 13.6 12.9 0.0 37.0 37.0 0.0 41.5 0.0 534.8 3.6% 531.0 13.6 37.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
7 18-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% -9.1% 529.0 529.0 13.6 12.7 0.0 34.0 34.0 0.0 42.9 0.0 543.3 3.6% 529.0 13.6 34.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
8 25-Feb-18 50.0 50.0 0.0% 2.9% 524.0 524.0 10.5 11.3 0.0 68.0 68.0 15.0 15.0 48.6 11.7 550.4 4.7% Planned Clearance Event 524.0 10.5 68.0 350.0 7.0 115.0
Feb 167.0 167.0 0.0% -0.4% 2,112.0 12.6 12.8 181.0 0.0 181.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 167.6 11.7 0.0 2,147.9 15.6% 2,112.0 12.6 181.0 1,400.0 8.4 232.0
9 4-Mar-18 45.0 45.0 0.0% 2.0% 527.0 527.0 11.7 12.2 0.0 48.0 48.0 0.0 44.1 0.0 540.1 4.2% 527.0 11.7 48.0 400.0 8.9 45.0
10 11-Mar-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 12.0% 530.0 530.0 12.6 14.3 0.0 45.0 45.0 0.0 37.5 0.0 536.0 3.9% 530.0 12.6 45.0 400.0 9.5 42.0
11 18-Mar-18 43.0 43.0 0.0% -1.6% 533.0 533.0 12.4 12.3 0.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 43.7 4.1 4.1 538.5 4.0% 533.0 12.4 40.0 400.0 9.3 43.0
12 25-Mar-18 44.0 44.0 0.0% -4.1% 530.0 530.0 12.0 11.6 0.0 51.0 51.0 0.0 45.9 4.5 4.5 530.7 4.1% 530.0 12.0 51.0 400.0 9.1 44.0
13 1-Apr-18 44.0 44.0 0.0% 14.6% 537.0 537.0 12.2 13.5 0.0 30.0 30.0 0.0 38.4 0.0 520.3 4.1% 537.0 12.2 30.0 400.0 9.1 144.0
Mar 218.0 218.0 0.0% 4.0% 2,657.0 12.2 12.7 214.0 0.0 214.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 209.6 8.6 8.6 2,665.6 20.4% 2,657.0 12.2 214.0 2,000.0 9.2 318.0
Cum 522.0 522.0 0.0% 7.7% 6,495.0 12.4 13.3 735.0 0.0 735.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 484.8 20.3 8.6 6,438.5 48.8% 6,791.0 13.0 582.0 4,700.0 9.0 712.0
14 8-Apr-18 49.0 49.0 0.0% 24.4% 523.0 523.0 10.7 13.2 0.0 30.0 30.0 5.0 5.0 39.4 0.0 521.9 4.6% Easter Offers 523.0 9.7 30.0 500.0 9.3 54.0
15 15-Apr-18 52.0 52.0 0.0% 24.1% 499.0 499.0 9.6 12.5 0.0 60.0 60.0 5.0 5.0 41.9 0.0 522.5 4.9% Easter Sunday April 16th 2017 499.0 8.8 550.0 500.0 8.8 57.0
16 22-Apr-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 1.0% 502.0 992.0 12.0 12.5 0.0 60.0 60.0 0.0 41.6 0.0 520.6 3.9% 992.0 23.6 500.0 11.9 42.0
17 29-Apr-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 9.9% 520.0 950.0 12.4 13.6 0.0 60.0 60.0 0.0 38.2 0.0 519.0 3.9% 950.0 22.6 500.0 11.9 42.0
Apr 185.0 185.0 0.0% 14.8% 2,044.0 11.0 12.9 210.0 0.0 210.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 161.1 0.0 0.0 2,084.0 17.3% 2,964.0 15.2 580.0 2,000.0 10.3 195.0
18 6-May-18 37.0 37.0 0.0% 14.6% 538.0 908.0 14.5 16.1 0.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 32.3 0.0 520.8 3.5% 908.0 24.5 500.0 13.5 37.0
19 13-May-18 34.0 34.0 0.0% 5.9% 551.0 871.0 16.2 16.5 0.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 32.1 0.0 528.5 3.2% 871.0 25.6 500.0 14.7 34.0
20 20-May-18 53.0 53.0 0.0% 8.8% 557.0 837.0 10.5 11.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 50.0 50.0 48.7 30.0 536.4 5.0% Planned Sale 837.0 15.8 500.0 9.4 103.0
21 27-May-18 48.0 48.0 0.0% 6.4% 494.0 734.0 10.3 11.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 25.0 45.1 29.9 497.7 4.5% Planned Sale 734.0 15.3 500.0 10.4 234.0
May 172.0 172.0 0.0% 8.7% 2,140.0 12.4 13.2 170.0 0.0 170.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 158.2 59.9 0.0 2,083.4 16.1% 3,350.0 19.5 0.0 2,000.0 11.6 408.0
22 3-Jun-18 45.0 45.0 0.0% 6.1% 461.0 661.0 10.2 10.9 0.0 40.0 40.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 38.4 462.7 4.2% Planned Sale 661.0 14.7 661.0 14.7
23 10-Jun-18 40.0 40.0 0.0% 4.7% 406.0 566.0 10.2 11.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 25.0 38.2 50.1 421.9 3.7% Planned Sale 566.0 14.2 566.0 14.2
24 17-Jun-18 51.0 51.0 0.0% 14.3% 381.0 501.0 7.5 8.4 0.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 25.0 44.6 32.9 373.6 4.8% Father's Day 18th June 2017 501.0 9.8 501.0 9.8
25 24-Jun-18 30.0 30.0 0.0% 10.7% 345.0 425.0 11.5 12.4 0.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 27.1 0.0 336.1 2.8% 425.0 14.2 425.0 14.2
26 1-Jul-18 25.0 25.0 0.0% 83.8% 355.0 395.0 14.2 25.7 0.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 349.0 2.3% 395.0 15.8 395.0 15.8
Jun 191.0 191.0 0.0% 15.1% 1,948.0 10.2 11.7 200.0 0.0 200.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 165.9 121.4 0.0 1,943.3 17.9% 2,548.0 13.3 0.0 2,548.0 13.3 0.0
Cum 1,070.0 1,070.0 0.0% 10.3% 12,627 11.8 12.9 1,315.0 0.0 1,315.0 0.0 200.0 10.0 190.0 0.0 970.0 201.6 8.6 12,549 100.0% 15,653 14.5 1,162.0 11,248 10.4 1,315.0
27 8-Jul-18 370.0 370.0 375.4 370.0 370.0
Stockturn 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.5
* Note, cover excludes POS

OTB Exercise 3

The OTB Monitor
Category Pre Season Sales £K inc VAT In Season Sales £K inc VAT Total Season Sales £K inc VAT MD % MD Spend Terminal Stock % Terminal Stock £K Total Buy Value Purchase Orders OTB % Committed
Biker Jackets £225 £675 £900 7% £65 8% £70 £890
Denim Jackets £280 £420 £700 12% £85 3% £20 £805
Duffle Coats £155 £1,045 £1,200 13% £155 6% £70 £800
Duster Coats £90 £410 £500 9% £45 10% £50 £200
Faux Fur £110 £1,290 £1,400 15% £210 8% £110 £1,600
Parkas £195 £1,105 £1,300 8% £105 9% £115 £1,200
Puffer Jackets £265 £1,935 £2,200 10% £220 10% £220 £2,100
Trench Coats and Macs £360 £1,440 £1,800 8% £145 8% £145 £1,300
Total Coats £1,680 £8,320 £10,000 10% £1,030 8.0% £800 £8,895

OTB Answer 3

The OTB Monitor
Category Pre Season Sales £K inc VAT In Season Sales £K inc VAT Total Season Sales £K inc VAT MD % MD Spend Terminal Stock % Terminal Stock £K Total Buy Value Purchase Orders OTB % Committed
Biker Jackets £225 £675 £900 7% £65 8% £70 £1,035 £890 £145 86%
Denim Jackets £280 £420 £700 12% £85 3% £20 805 £805 0 100%
Duffle Coats £155 £1,045 £1,200 13% £155 6% £70 1425 £800 625 56%
Duster Coats £90 £410 £500 9% £45 10% £50 595 £200 395 34%
Faux Fur £110 £1,290 £1,400 15% £210 8% £110 1720 £1,600 120 93%
Parkas £195 £1,105 £1,300 8% £105 9% £115 1520 £1,200 320 79%
Puffer Jackets £265 £1,935 £2,200 10% £220 10% £220 2640 £2,100 540 80%
Trench Coats and Macs £360 £1,440 £1,800 8% £145 8% £145 2090 £1,300 790 62%
Total Coats £1,680 £8,320 £10,000 10% £1,030 8.0% £800 £11,830 £8,895 £2,935 75%

OTB Exercise 2x

The OTB Monitor: Financial Half
Category Sales £K inc VAT MD % MD Spend Opening Stock Closing Stock Total Buy Value Purchase Orders OTB % Committed
L/S T Shirts £800 12% £96 £245 £520 £650
S/S T Shirts £2,500 8% £200 £925 £600 £1,950
Sless T Shirts £1,700 9% £153 £0 £450 £1,495
Total T Shirts £5,000 £449 £1,170 £1,570 £4,095
The OTB Monitor: Seasonal
Category Pre Season Sales £K inc VAT In Season Sales £K inc VAT Total Season Sales £K inc VAT MD % MD Spend Terminal Stock % Terminal Stock £K Total Buy Value Purchase Orders OTB % Committed
L/S T Shirts £500 £200 £700 5% £35 15% £30 £650
S/S T Shirts £500 £2,000 £2,500 4% £100 12% £240 £1,950
Sless T Shirts £0 £1,700 £1,700 6% £102 12% £204 £1,284
Total T Shirts £1,000 £3,900 £4,900 5% £237 12.2% £474 £3,884

OTB Answer 2x

The OTB Monitor: Financial Half
Category Sales £K inc VAT MD % MD Spend Opening Stock Closing Stock Total Buy Value Purchase Orders OTB % Committed
L/S T Shirts £800 12% £96 £245 £520 £1,171 £650 £521 56%
S/S T Shirts £2,500 8% £200 £925 £600 2375 £1,950 425 82%
Sless T Shirts £1,700 9% £153 £0 £450 2303 £1,495 808 65%
Total T Shirts £5,000 9% £449 £1,170 £1,570 £5,849 £4,095 £1,754 70%
The OTB Monitor: Seasonal
Category Pre Season Sales £K inc VAT In Season Sales £K inc VAT Total Season Sales £K inc VAT MD % MD Spend Terminal Stock % Terminal Stock £K Total Buy Value Purchase Orders OTB % Committed
L/S T Shirts £500 £200 £700 5% £35 15% £30 £765 £650 £115 85%
S/S T Shirts £500 £2,000 £2,500 4% £100 12% £240 2840 £1,950 890 69%
Sless T Shirts £0 £1,700 £1,700 6% £102 12% £204 2006 £1,284 722 64%
Total T Shirts £1,000 £3,900 £4,900 5% £237 12.2% £474 £5,611 £3,884 £1,727 69%

OTB Exercise 3x

Paul Smith
WSSI - Week 4, Exercise 3
Dept: Any Season: Any
Cat: All Current Week Target
* 12 weeks sales except at end of season
Sales £K Stock & Cover Intake Markdown Last Year Phasing Forward Req Set Stock
Week Date Act/Fcst Target Var Tgt% Var LY% Act/ Fcst Opening Stk Fwd Req Stk* Target Stk TY OPENING Cover LY OPENING Cover Tgt OPENING Cover Total Orders/ Act Intake OTB Target Total POS Clearance Target Sales Total MD POS Opening Stock Sales Mix Calendar Act/ Fcst Opening Stk TY OPENING Cover OTB Act/ Fcst Opening Stk TY OPENING Cover OTB
1 7-Jan-18 24.0 25.0 -4.0% 3.0% 325.0 455.0 325.0 13.5 13.6 13.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 23.3 0.0 317.0 2.3% 478.0 19.1 44.0 325.0 13.0 25.0
2 14-Jan-18 28.0 30.0 -6.7% -1.1% 401.0 475.0 400.0 14.3 13.9 13.3 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 28.3 0.0 393.7 2.7% 497.0 16.6 49.0 325.0 10.8 30.0
3 21-Jan-18 32.0 37.0 -13.5% 20.8% 473.0 496.0 470.0 14.8 16.4 12.7 98.0 98.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 0.0 435.4 3.1% Chinese NY 2017 Jan 28th-Feb 2nd 516.0 13.9 52.0 325.0 8.8 37.0
4 28-Jan-18 40.0 45.0 -11.1% 35.6% 539.0 516.0 531.0 13.5 16.2 11.8 42.0 42.0 0.0 0.0 29.5 0.0 478.9 3.8% 531.0 11.8 42.0 325.0 7.2 70.0
Jan 124.0 137.0 -9.5% 15.2% 1,738.0 14.0 15.1 340.0 340.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 107.6 0.0 0.0 1,625.0 11.8% 2,022.0 14.8 187.0 1,300.0 9.5 162.0
5 4-Feb-18 35.0 39.0 -10.3% 1.2% 541.0 518.0 528.0 15.5 15.0 13.5 42.0 42.0 0.0 0.0 34.6 0.0 519.4 3.3% 528.0 13.5 42.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
6 11-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% -6.0% 548.0 525.0 531.0 14.1 12.9 13.6 37.0 37.0 0.0 0.0 41.5 0.0 534.8 3.7% 531.0 13.6 37.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
7 18-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% -9.1% 546.0 523.0 529.0 14.0 12.7 13.6 34.0 34.0 0.0 0.0 42.9 0.0 543.3 3.7% 529.0 13.6 34.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
8 25-Feb-18 49.0 50.0 -2.0% 0.8% 541.0 518.0 524.0 11.0 11.3 10.5 68.0 68.0 25.0 25.0 15.0 48.6 11.7 550.4 4.7% Planned Clearance Event 524.0 10.5 68.0 350.0 7.0 115.0
Feb 162.0 167.0 -3.0% -3.3% 2,176.0 13.4 12.8 181.0 181.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 15.0 167.6 11.7 0.0 2,147.9 15.5% 2,112.0 12.6 181.0 1,400.0 8.4 232.0
9 4-Mar-18 44.0 45.0 -2.2% -0.2% 535.0 522.0 527.0 12.2 12.2 11.7 48.0 48.0 0.0 0.0 44.1 0.0 540.1 4.2% 527.0 11.7 48.0 400.0 8.9 45.0
10 11-Mar-18 38.0 42.0 -9.5% 1.3% 539.0 526.0 530.0 14.2 14.3 12.6 45.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 37.5 0.0 536.0 3.6% 530.0 12.6 45.0 400.0 9.5 42.0
11 18-Mar-18 43.0 43.0 0.0% -1.6% 546.0 533.0 533.0 12.7 12.3 12.4 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 43.7 4.1 4.1 538.5 4.1% 533.0 12.4 40.0 400.0 9.3 43.0
12 25-Mar-18 44.0 44.0 0.0% -4.1% 543.0 530.0 530.0 12.3 11.6 12.0 51.0 51.0 0.0 0.0 45.9 4.5 4.5 530.7 4.2% 530.0 12.0 51.0 400.0 9.1 44.0
13 1-Apr-18 44.0 44.0 0.0% 14.6% 550.0 537.0 537.0 12.5 13.5 12.2 30.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 38.4 0.0 520.3 4.2% 537.0 12.2 30.0 400.0 9.1 144.0
Mar 213.0 218.0 -2.3% 1.6% 2,713.0 12.7 12.7 214.0 214.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 209.6 8.6 8.6 2,665.6 20.3% 2,657.0 12.2 214.0 2,000.0 9.2 318.0
Cum 499.0 522.0 -4.4% 2.9% 6,627.0 13.3 13.3 735.0 735.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 15.0 484.8 20.3 8.6 6,438.5 47.7% 6,791.0 13.0 582.0 4,700.0 9.0 712.0
14 8-Apr-18 49.0 49.0 0.0% 24.4% 536.0 523.0 523.0 10.9 13.2 10.7 30.0 30.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 39.4 0.0 521.9 4.7% Easter Offers 523.0 9.7 30.0 500.0 9.3 54.0
15 15-Apr-18 52.0 52.0 0.0% 24.1% 512.0 499.0 499.0 9.8 12.5 9.6 105.0 105.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 41.9 0.0 522.5 5.0% Easter Sunday April 16th 2017 499.0 8.8 550.0 500.0 8.8 57.0
16 22-Apr-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 1.0% 560.0 982.0 502.0 13.3 12.5 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.6 0.0 520.6 4.0% 992.0 23.6 500.0 11.9 42.0
17 29-Apr-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 9.9% 518.0 940.0 520.0 12.3 13.6 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.2 0.0 519.0 4.0% 950.0 22.6 500.0 11.9 42.0
Apr 185.0 185.0 0.0% 14.8% 2,126.0 11.5 12.9 135.0 135.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 161.1 0.0 0.0 2,084.0 17.7% 2,964.0 15.2 580.0 2,000.0 10.3 195.0
18 6-May-18 37.0 37.0 0.0% 14.6% 476.0 898.0 538.0 12.9 16.1 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.3 0.0 520.8 3.5% 908.0 24.5 500.0 13.5 37.0
19 13-May-18 34.0 34.0 0.0% 5.9% 439.0 861.0 551.0 12.9 16.5 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.1 0.0 528.5 3.2% 871.0 25.6 500.0 14.7 34.0
20 20-May-18 53.0 53.0 0.0% 8.8% 405.0 827.0 557.0 7.6 11.0 10.5 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 48.7 30.0 536.4 5.1% Planned Sale 837.0 15.8 500.0 9.4 103.0
21 27-May-18 48.0 48.0 0.0% 6.4% 302.0 724.0 494.0 6.3 11.0 10.3 0.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 45.1 29.9 497.7 4.6% Planned Sale 734.0 15.3 500.0 10.4 234.0
May 172.0 172.0 0.0% 8.7% 1,622.0 9.4 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 75.0 75.0 158.2 59.9 0.0 2,083.4 16.4% 3,350.0 19.5 0.0 2,000.0 11.6 408.0
22 3-Jun-18 45.0 45.0 0.0% 6.1% 229.0 651.0 461.0 5.1 10.9 10.2 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 38.4 462.7 4.3% Planned Sale 661.0 14.7 661.0 14.7
23 10-Jun-18 40.0 40.0 0.0% 4.7% 134.0 556.0 406.0 3.4 11.0 10.2 0.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 38.2 50.1 421.9 3.8% Planned Sale 566.0 14.2 566.0 14.2
24 17-Jun-18 51.0 51.0 0.0% 14.3% 69.0 491.0 381.0 1.4 8.4 7.5 0.0 15.0 15.0 25.0 44.6 32.9 373.6 4.9% Father's Day 18th June 2017 501.0 9.8 501.0 9.8
25 24-Jun-18 30.0 30.0 0.0% 10.7% 3.0 425.0 345.0 0.1 12.4 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.1 0.0 336.1 2.9% 425.0 14.2 425.0 14.2
26 1-Jul-18 25.0 25.0 0.0% 83.8% -27.0 395.0 355.0 -1.1 25.7 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 349.0 2.4% 395.0 15.8 395.0 15.8
Jun 191.0 191.0 0.0% 15.1% 408.0 2.1 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0 0.0 90.0 100.0 165.9 121.4 0.0 1,943.3 18.2% 2,548.0 13.3 0.0 2,548.0 13.3 0.0
Cum 1,047.0 1,070.0 -2.1% 7.9% 10,783 10.3 12.9 870.0 870.0 0.0 0.0 200.0 10.0 190.0 200.0 970.0 201.6 8.6 12,549 100.0% 15,653 14.5 1,162.0 11,248 10.4 1,315.0
27 8-Jul-18 -52.0 370.0 370.0 375.4 370.0 370.0
Stockturn 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.5

OTB Answer 3x

Paul Smith
WSSI - Exercise 3
Dept: Any Season: Any
Cat: All Current Week Target
* 12 weeks sales except at end of season
Sales £K Stock & Cover Intake Markdown Last Year Phasing Forward Req Set Stock
Week Date Act/Fcst Target Var Tgt% Var LY% Act/ Fcst Opening Stk Fwd Req Stk* Target Stk TY OPENING Cover LY OPENING Cover Tgt OPENING Cover Total Orders/ Act Intake OTB Target Total POS Clearance Target Sales Total MD POS Opening Stock Sales Mix Calendar Act/ Fcst Opening Stk TY OPENING Cover OTB Act/ Fcst Opening Stk TY OPENING Cover OTB
1 7-Jan-18 24.0 25.0 -4.0% 3.0% 325.0 455.0 325.0 13.5 13.6 13.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 23.3 0.0 317.0 2.3% 478.0 19.1 44.0 325.0 13.0 25.0
2 14-Jan-18 28.0 30.0 -6.7% -1.1% 401.0 475.0 400.0 14.3 13.9 13.3 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 28.3 0.0 393.7 2.7% 497.0 16.6 49.0 325.0 10.8 30.0
3 21-Jan-18 32.0 37.0 -13.5% 20.8% 473.0 496.0 470.0 14.8 16.4 12.7 98.0 98.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 0.0 435.4 3.1% Chinese NY 2017 Jan 28th-Feb 2nd 516.0 13.9 52.0 325.0 8.8 37.0
4 28-Jan-18 40.0 45.0 -11.1% 35.6% 539.0 516.0 531.0 13.5 16.2 11.8 42.0 42.0 0.0 0.0 29.5 0.0 478.9 3.8% 531.0 11.8 42.0 325.0 7.2 70.0
Jan 124.0 137.0 -9.5% 15.2% 1,738.0 14.0 15.1 340.0 340.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 107.6 0.0 0.0 1,625.0 11.8% 2,022.0 14.8 187.0 1,300.0 9.5 162.0
5 4-Feb-18 35.0 39.0 -10.3% 1.2% 541.0 518.0 528.0 15.5 15.0 13.5 42.0 42.0 0.0 0.0 34.6 0.0 519.4 3.3% 528.0 13.5 42.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
6 11-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% -6.0% 548.0 525.0 531.0 14.1 12.9 13.6 37.0 37.0 0.0 0.0 41.5 0.0 534.8 3.7% 531.0 13.6 37.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
7 18-Feb-18 39.0 39.0 0.0% -9.1% 546.0 523.0 529.0 14.0 12.7 13.6 34.0 34.0 0.0 0.0 42.9 0.0 543.3 3.7% 529.0 13.6 34.0 350.0 9.0 39.0
8 25-Feb-18 49.0 50.0 -2.0% 0.8% 541.0 518.0 524.0 11.0 11.3 10.5 68.0 68.0 25.0 25.0 15.0 48.6 11.7 550.4 4.7% Planned Clearance Event 524.0 10.5 68.0 350.0 7.0 115.0
Feb 162.0 167.0 -3.0% -3.3% 2,176.0 13.4 12.8 181.0 181.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 15.0 167.6 11.7 0.0 2,147.9 15.5% 2,112.0 12.6 181.0 1,400.0 8.4 232.0
9 4-Mar-18 44.0 45.0 -2.2% -0.2% 535.0 522.0 527.0 12.2 12.2 11.7 48.0 48.0 0.0 0.0 44.1 0.0 540.1 4.2% 527.0 11.7 48.0 400.0 8.9 45.0
10 11-Mar-18 38.0 42.0 -9.5% 1.3% 539.0 526.0 530.0 14.2 14.3 12.6 45.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 37.5 0.0 536.0 3.6% 530.0 12.6 45.0 400.0 9.5 42.0
11 18-Mar-18 43.0 43.0 0.0% -1.6% 546.0 533.0 533.0 12.7 12.3 12.4 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 43.7 4.1 4.1 538.5 4.1% 533.0 12.4 40.0 400.0 9.3 43.0
12 25-Mar-18 44.0 44.0 0.0% -4.1% 543.0 530.0 530.0 12.3 11.6 12.0 51.0 51.0 0.0 0.0 45.9 4.5 4.5 530.7 4.2% 530.0 12.0 51.0 400.0 9.1 44.0
13 1-Apr-18 44.0 44.0 0.0% 14.6% 550.0 537.0 537.0 12.5 13.5 12.2 30.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 38.4 0.0 520.3 4.2% 537.0 12.2 30.0 400.0 9.1 144.0
Mar 213.0 218.0 -2.3% 1.6% 2,713.0 12.7 12.7 214.0 214.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 209.6 8.6 8.6 2,665.6 20.3% 2,657.0 12.2 214.0 2,000.0 9.2 318.0
Cum 499.0 522.0 -4.4% 2.9% 6,627.0 13.3 13.3 735.0 735.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 15.0 484.8 20.3 8.6 6,438.5 47.7% 6,791.0 13.0 582.0 4,700.0 9.0 712.0
14 8-Apr-18 49.0 49.0 0.0% 24.4% 536.0 523.0 523.0 10.9 13.2 10.7 30.0 30.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 39.4 0.0 521.9 4.7% Easter Offers 523.0 9.7 30.0 500.0 9.3 54.0
15 15-Apr-18 52.0 52.0 0.0% 24.1% 512.0 499.0 499.0 9.8 12.5 9.6 105.0 105.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 41.9 0.0 522.5 5.0% Easter Sunday April 16th 2017 499.0 8.8 550.0 500.0 8.8 57.0
16 22-Apr-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 1.0% 560.0 982.0 502.0 13.3 12.5 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.6 0.0 520.6 4.0% 992.0 23.6 500.0 11.9 42.0
17 29-Apr-18 42.0 42.0 0.0% 9.9% 518.0 940.0 520.0 12.3 13.6 12.4 62.0 62.0 0.0 0.0 38.2 0.0 519.0 4.0% 950.0 22.6 500.0 11.9 42.0
Apr 185.0 185.0 0.0% 14.8% 2,126.0 11.5 12.9 197.0 135.0 62.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 161.1 0.0 0.0 2,084.0 17.7% 2,964.0 15.2 580.0 2,000.0 10.3 195.0
18 6-May-18 37.0 37.0 0.0% 14.6% 538.0 898.0 538.0 14.5 16.1 14.5 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 32.3 0.0 520.8 3.5% 908.0 24.5 500.0 13.5 37.0
19 13-May-18 34.0 34.0 0.0% 5.9% 551.0 861.0 551.0 16.2 16.5 16.2 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 32.1 0.0 528.5 3.2% 871.0 25.6 500.0 14.7 34.0
20 20-May-18 53.0 53.0 0.0% 8.8% 557.0 827.0 557.0 10.5 11.0 10.5 40.0 40.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 48.7 30.0 536.4 5.1% Planned Sale 837.0 15.8 500.0 9.4 103.0
21 27-May-18 48.0 48.0 0.0% 6.4% 494.0 724.0 494.0 10.3 11.0 10.3 40.0 40.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 45.1 29.9 497.7 4.6% Planned Sale 734.0 15.3 500.0 10.4 234.0
May 172.0 172.0 0.0% 8.7% 2,140.0 12.4 13.2 170.0 0.0 170.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 75.0 75.0 158.2 59.9 0.0 2,083.4 16.4% 3,350.0 19.5 0.0 2,000.0 11.6 408.0
22 3-Jun-18 45.0 45.0 0.0% 6.1% 461.0 651.0 461.0 10.2 10.9 10.2 40.0 40.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 38.4 462.7 4.3% Planned Sale 661.0 14.7 661.0 14.7
23 10-Jun-18 40.0 40.0 0.0% 4.7% 406.0 556.0 406.0 10.2 11.0 10.2 40.0 40.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 38.2 50.1 421.9 3.8% Planned Sale 566.0 14.2 566.0 14.2
24 17-Jun-18 51.0 51.0 0.0% 14.3% 381.0 491.0 381.0 7.5 8.4 7.5 30.0 30.0 15.0 15.0 25.0 44.6 32.9 373.6 4.9% Father's Day 18th June 2017 501.0 9.8 501.0 9.8
25 24-Jun-18 30.0 30.0 0.0% 10.7% 345.0 425.0 345.0 11.5 12.4 11.5 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 27.1 0.0 336.1 2.9% 425.0 14.2 425.0 14.2
26 1-Jul-18 25.0 25.0 0.0% 83.8% 355.0 395.0 355.0 14.2 25.7 14.2 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 349.0 2.4% 395.0 15.8 395.0 15.8
Jun 191.0 191.0 0.0% 15.1% 1,948.0 10.2 11.7 190.0 0.0 190.0 0.0 90.0 0.0 90.0 100.0 165.9 121.4 0.0 1,943.3 18.2% 2,548.0 13.3 0.0 2,548.0 13.3 0.0
Cum 1,047.0 1,070.0 -2.1% 7.9% 12,841 12.3 12.9 1,292.0 870.0 422.0 0.0 200.0 10.0 190.0 200.0 970.0 201.6 8.6 12,549 100.0% 15,653 14.5 1,162.0 11,248 10.4 1,315.0
27 8-Jul-18 370.0 370.0 370.0 375.4 370.0 370.0
Stockturn 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.5

MPT19 Wk9 Numeracy Lecture - Stock Management and OTB.pptx

Merchandise Planning & Trading Week 9: Numeracy Session

Stock Management and Open to Buy

Topics

Introduction to Open To Buy (OTB)

Managing Stock and Intake

Open to Buy

What is Open to Buy?

The amount needed to be spent on stock

The money not yet committed and available to spend for an intake period

Lead times determine how late commitments can be made

Shorter lead times = more flexibility, lower stock cover

The Key Calculation of the WSSI

5

Week 1 Opening Stock

ALL Intake

Sales

ALL Mark down

Week 1 Closing Stock

+

-

-

=

Commitment

Receipted

Open to Buy

Clearance

Point of Sale

This now becomes the OPENING STOCK for Week 2

5

OTB Calculation

Week 1 Opening Stock

Sales

ALL Intake

ALL MD

Week 1 Closing Stock

Total Intake

=

Opening Stock

-

Target Closing Stock

+

ALL Mark down

+

Sales

Total intake = OTB + Commitment

Therefore, OTB = Total Intake – Any existing Commitment

6

Calculating Intake with the WSSI Key Calculation

7

Week Sales Act/ Fcst Opening Stock Total Intake Orders OTB Markdown
1 50.0 600.0 5.0
2 80.0 835.0 10.0
3 100.0 885.0 10.0
4 120.0 910.0 10.0
Jan 350.0   35.0
5   875.0

95.0

290.0

140.0

135.0

660.0

290.0

0.0

100.0

40.0

50.0

85.0

0.0

95.0

440.0

220.0

This is the same exercise we did in week 1 but with different column being calculated

7

Exercise 1

For exercise 1, assuming that the stock each week matches the target stock:

Work out the total intake

Calculate the Open To Buy

The Tools of Intake Planning

The aim is to be:

Never out of stock…but also

Just in Time!

The lower the stock level, the cheaper the cost of stock investment

We manage our intake through:

WSSI – Department and Category Level

Line Cards – Core volume lines

OTB Monitors

Used to manage Open to Buy pre-season and in-season

Updated as commitment placed

Rolled up to Department level

Note – the potential identified at line card level may not actually add up to your total dept…what do you do?

9

Step by Step to Intake Planning

Phase sales at Category level and input into WSSI

Identify Key Lines and complete Line Cards

This will drive some of your total intake requirements

Agree Key Performance Indicators with Manager, phase and add into WSSI:

Clearance and Promotional markdown

Stock covers for store & DC

Set stock levels by week & month to achieve target cover (forward & flat)

Calculate intake to reach target stocks

Validate sales forecast:

Does weekly cover look achievable with planned stock level?

Input data into OTB Monitor and agree with Manager

Update OTB Monitor as commitment placed

Update WSSI & OTB Monitor with revised forecasts in line with actual performance

Managing Intake Exercise

11

In groups of two or three, have a play with the OTB on the WSSI spreadsheet, by using the soft copy of the spreadsheet to do the two exercises below

See what happens to your average stock and cover

Write down the figure that you get on both occasions

Enter the Week 1 Opening Stock and the OTB for all weeks to match the Forward Required Stock

Enter the Week 1 Opening Stock and the OTB for all weeks to come to the following opening stocks by month:

Jan: 325 Feb: 350

March: 400 April & May: 500

June: as shown in the Forward Required column

14.6

10.5

11

Managing Seasonality: Fashion

In fashion, stock is often managed at a seasonal level

12

Managing Seasonality: Fashion

Plans are created for all seasons within each merchandise half in order to manage intake effectively

  Half 1 Half 2 Half 1
  qtr 1 qtr 2 sale qtr 3 qtr 4 sale qtr 1 qtr 2 sale
S/S Ranges main mdn   pre main mdn
A/W Ranges   pre main mdn   pre
Continuity            
Old     mdn     mdn      
                   

13

The OTB Monitor

Exercise: Fill out the answers to the Open to Buy Monitor

Category Pre Season Sales £K inc VAT In Season Sales £K inc VAT Total Season Sales £K inc VAT MD % MD Spend Terminal Stock % Terminal Stock £K Total Buy Value Purchase Orders OTB % Committed
L/S T Shirts £500 £200 £700 5% £35 4% £30 £650
S/S T Shirts £500 £2,000 £2,500 4% £100 10% £240 £1,950
Sless T Shirts £0 £1,700 £1,700 6% £102 12% £204 £1,284
Total T Shirts £1,000 £3,900 £4,900 5% £237 9.7% £474 £3,884

85%

£2,840

£2,006

£5,611

69%

64%

69%

£765

£115

£890

£722

£1,727

14

Open to Buy Levers

If sales over-perform, we can release more OTB

If we under-achieve, we need to reduce OTB and other intake to minimise risk and terminal stock

If sales are good, markdown is likely to fall

If sales are poor, we may need to spend markdown to create OTB for fresh stock

Sometimes, at the end of the season, instead of all of our closing stock being classed as terminal, we can agree to re-classify it to trade through the next season

The higher the level of re-classification out, the higher the value of OTB for the current season…BUT…this reduces the OTB next season!

If sales are good, terminal stock is likely to fall

If sales are poor, to avoid any increase in terminals stock, we need to take action by using the other levers

Consider point in season before automatically spending Open To Buy

Can you just reduce your stock going into Clearance?

Can you reduce your RTV?

Do you need to increase sales & Open To Buy on the new season stock?

Negative Open To Buy is a tool to show cancellation/ RTV requirement

15

Sales

Markdown

Re-Classification

Terminal Stock

Next Week’s Session

Balance to Achieve and Re-forecasting

16

Chart1

Season Start
Short
Average
Long
OTB
1
0.8
0.4
0.2

Sheet1

Season Start Short Average Long
OTB 100% 80% 40.00% 20.00%