week 6 Discussion
csht
week6.pptxData Driven Decision Making Week 6: Follow up decisions Statistical Review
1
Statistical (& Data) Review
Validating the approach taken for making a smart decision
The following is based on Randy Bartlett’s book: A Practitioner’s Guide to Business Analytics, Section 9 Statistical Review—Act V
Code Review
One or more engineers (“reviewers”) reviews a specified portion of the another engineers code
Goals (from Wikipedia):
Better Quality Code
Find defects
Learning/knowledge transfer
Increase sense of mutual responsibility
Finding better solutions
Complying to QA guidelines
Wikipedia contributors. (2020, March 28). Code review. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 21:22, June 24, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Code_review&oldid=947848980
Statistical Review – Purpose and Scope
Purpose
Verify the integrity of the decision or analysis and, potentially, to find alternatives
Scope
Shaped by what makes sense within the confines of our resources (including time), the complexity of the work, and our projected benefits.
Modified from Uwe Hohgrawe / Bartlett textbook
Statistical Review - Benefits
All important analytics-based decisions merit review. Statistical Review is a major force in continual improvement. The benefits of Statistical Review are both immediate and long-term. In addition to continually raising our analytics aptitude, Statistical Review provides numerous downstream benefits such as:
Improves decision making.
Ensures the rigor of the results, thereby enhancing reliability.
Reveals insight into the problem—even a partial review can reveal insight, which can be leveraged to find better solutions.
Provides on-the-job training, hones analytics professionals.
Fosters collaboration between reviewers and those reviewed.
Protects the findings from political aspirations.
Sterilizes one source of political growth.
Eradicates expensive and dangerous fairy tales about how to run the company.
Discourages negligence, charlatans, and counterfeit analysis.
Encourages speedier execution.
Uwe Hohgrawe / Bartlett textbook
Statistical Review – Scope checklist
Here is a typical checklist tailored for conducting a particular review:
Purpose of Decision/Analysis
Thoroughness of Review
Statistical Qualifications
Underlying Assumptions
Analysis Structure
Statistical Diagnostics
Alternative Solutions
Timeliness, Client Expectation, Accuracy, Reliability, and Cost—BSP (Best Statistical Practice) List
Decision Results
Recommendations for Future Enhancements
Response
Uwe Hohgrawe / Bartlett textbook
Review should be an upbeat, collegial opportunity to encourage professional norms, an opportunity for nurturing technical competence in other. We should find out what went right and suggest what we can do better. Review is a development opportunity…
- Randy Bartlett, A Practioner’s Guide to Business Analytics
Reviews often happen as postmortems when something goes wrong
Better: do them on a regular basis and in a positive supportive culture
Uwe Hohgrawe / Bartlett textbook
Follow up decisions
The decisions never stop
The decisions never stop
We are constantly making decisions
35,000/day is frequently cited but most likely proverbial*
All parts of our lives
Suck time and energy out of us
Hulu Live TV cost went up $10/mo! Still worth it?
* Stackexchange. (2018). Basis for "we make 35,000 decisions a day" statistic. Psychology & Neuroscience Stack Exchange. Retrieved 15 August 2018, from https://psychology.stackexchange.com/questions/17182/basis-for-we-make-35-000-decisions-a-day-statistic
My Cable/Internet Decision Making Spreadsheet
Analysis Paralysis / Decision Paralysis
You’ll see I wear only gray or blue suits. I’m trying to pare down decisions. I don’t want to make decisions about what I’m eating or wearing. Because I have too many other decisions to make.
- President Barack Obama, when in office
xkcd: Decision Paralysis. (2018). Xkcd.com. Retrieved 15 August 2018, from https://xkcd.com/1801/
Always Wear The Same Suit: Obama’s Presidential Productivity Secrets. (2014). Fast Company. Retrieved 15 August 2018, from https://www.fastcompany.com/3026265/always-wear-the-same-suit-obamas-presidential-productivity-secrets
Process of Decision Making
| 1. Define Objective | |
| 2. Reduce ambiguity and risk Collect data Analyze data | |
| 3. Make a choice | |
| 4. Execute | |
| 5. Measure and adjust according |
Modified from: Figliuolo, Mike. (2018). Decision Making Strategies. Retrieved 8 October 2018,
from https://www.lynda.com/Business-Skills-tutorials/Defining-decision-making/186697/373496-4.html?org=neu.edu
Path is frequently non-linear
May skip steps (e.g. data collection)
Many subdecisions in the path
Deciding on a goal
Deciding on what data to collect/use
Etc
