statistics discussion

Instructions:

This week you will look at misleading information that you are exposed to every day.  Find an example of a survey or poll or even a tweet that you think might be misleading.

How would you support your conclusions? You want to use statistical reasoning here not personal opinion. Places to look might be online polls where anyone can answer.  If the title of a survey is misleading, how would you correct it?

Was the sample representative?  Be sure to read the methodology of a survey and not only the responses to the questions.  For example, you may think the sampling was not representative of the population, but you have to discuss how sampling was actually done to support your claim. 

Another place to look are articles written by people who clearly don’t understand statistics but use legitimate data like the example below.

The title of the article, New Low of 49% in U.S. Say Death Penalty Applied Fairly  ( https://news.gallup.com/poll/243794/new-low-say-death-penalty-applied-fairly.aspx (Links to an external site.) ), is misleading because 49% is the point estimate.  You have to click on survey methods at the bottom to find the margin of error was 4%.  This means the true percentage in the population could have been as low as 45% but as high as 53%. Therefore the title of the article is very misleading. 

After locating your inaccurate poll or article, respond to the following questions.

· How did the poll or article misrepresent the facts? How might you rewrite the title of the article more accurately?

· What was the author trying to get you to think? Why?  What could be the ramifications of believing false information?

· Find and describe an article that refutes this information, if possible.

· Have you ever been sent articles that you believed just by reading the title? What was the result?

Please be sure to validate your opinions and ideas with citations and references in APA format.

Instructions:

Please respond to a minimum of two peers. Include in your response:

· Discuss whether you think the information presented by your peers' examples was used to mislead the reader? Explain your response. Include a brief discussion of why bad use of data might be intentional.  

· What steps should the author(s) of your peers' examples have taken to present the information fairly and accurately?

Please be sure to validate your opinions and ideas with citations and references in APA format.

Response one: Lee

Discussion Post #5

Leslie Sheehy Lee

There have been so many interesting social media posts, graphs, media outlets, and all kinds of things on COVID. I have found it hard to really find what is true about COVID. The graph that I found is labeled "Weekly Number of Deaths (from all causes)", yet the label of the article is Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19. Then into further review the graph it is not actual deaths, but predictions of deaths. The article could have been just labeled Predicted numbers of deaths per week. The article itself should not have been labeled anything to do with COVID.

The author was trying to get me to think that there are a number of excess deaths with COVID. “Counts of deaths from all causes of death, including COVID-19, are presented. As some deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not diagnosed or not mentioned on the death certificate), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted.” (CDC, 2020) They are trying to get me to think that there are more deaths because of COVID than not. I think that using predictions without having actual numbers can really put fear into people. It also doesn't share any ages or actual percentages of death rates within the population, so it just looks very scary. Ramifications are a highly anxious society. 

I found an article on a website from MN Department of Health and Bring Me the News and they have a graph that shows the percentages as a whole. How many people need hospitalizations to mortality percentage rates. It is very clear that people are dying, but it is very interesting to see the age groups that have mostly affected versus just seeing the predicted number of deaths. 

I have been sent plenty of articles. I have been scared about things and maybe unnecessarily scared. I have then shared the information and put fear in others. The problem with fear is that it can create anxiety and the U.S. is a very anxious country as a whole, and so putting misleading information out there can cause more anxiety which can actually lead to more disease. I will definitely be checking my resources. 

References

CDC. ( 2021, March 31). Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19. Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#techNotes

Nelson, Joe. (2020, APR 10)Explaining Minnesota's coronavirus model and why its death toll estimate is higher. (Links to an external site.) https://bringmethenews.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cfl_progressive%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_1246/MTcxNzYxNDMzODA0MDIyNzk2/screen-shot-2020-04-10-at-21032-pm.jpg

Response two

Discussion post #5

My article I choose to use to is a poll done by Monmouth University. The title of this poll is " 1 in 4 say 'No Thanks' to vaccine", as a reader one would think that 1 out of 4 people will get the covid vaccine (Monmouth, 2021). While further reading, the article breaks down the percentages of people getting the vaccine and those that are not. They found that approximately 50 percent of the public plans to get the vaccine when it becomes available, while 6 percent already have the vaccine, 19 percent prefer to wait and let others get it first, and 24 percent of people said they will not get the vaccine unless they are forced to. This article went on to break down the poll in different ways like demographically, age, and etc.

I think that the title was misleading, it gave a solid ratio that is not as solid as you would think from the title. This poll needs a new more accurate title that gives the audience a more accurate view of the information they received.

 

references:

Monmouth. 2021. 1 and 4 Say 'No Thanks' to Vaccine.

              https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_020321/