Literature HOMEWORK

Ambi Amezquita posted Nov 10, 2023 4:49 PM

Subscribe

What is the future of military robots?

 

Ambi Amezquita

ILR 620 Information Literacy, National University

Dr. Azita Mokhtari

November 7, 2023.

What is the future of military robots?

            The current era of rapid technological advancement, aided in large part by artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, is shaping every aspect of our lives, including fundamentally altering the conduct of modern warfare. Given the potential impact on geopolitics, the future of military robotics is emerging as a pivotal debate reshaping military strategies and complex ethical discussions. Kris Osborn, a highly qualified expert with decades of experience within the Department of Defense and a long-time defense news specialist, notes “unmanned systems and armed robots, increasingly enabled by artificial intelligence, are expected to greatly change combat maneuver formations.” (Osborne, 2021). During recent conflicts between Russia-Ukraine and Hamas-Israel, military robots have taken center stage and inspired a new style of warfare through innovative technologies and tactics, rendering some historical combat formations useless in the new way of war. Therefore, we should ask, what is the future of military robots?

What Exactly are Military Robots?

While the conceptualization of military robots in the past inspired Hollywood scripts such as Terminator, forecasting unruly machines with insane feats of strength and the potential to rule the world, military robots are now mainstream across the globe. In fact, military robotic applications range from seemingly benign information technology systems to unmanned aerial surveillance and complex missile defense systems. But thanks to recent technological advancements, emerging military robots are also now powered by self-learning algorithms and generative AI. Missy Cummings (2017), an international expert and leader in the study of autonomous systems within the U.S. Department of Defense, explains that today’s autonomous systems are smart machines that sense the world through the information received from sensors, then apply optimization algorithms to execute a range of complex behaviors (pg. 3). Like humans, robots are subject to biases and flawed logic. Where robots may possess an advantage over humans is through the application of advanced algorithms and processing speeds to analyze large amounts of information while making rapid decisions on the battlefield with a far better level of precision and accuracy. Whereas humans experience what is referred to as the “fog of war,” often confused by the shock and awe during battle, robots can continue to receive data, process it, and act accordingly. Therefore, military robots offer potential advantages in precision, accuracy, and speed in some applications when compared to humans. Conversely, the idea of robots making life or death decisions impacting humans in war doesn’t always sit right with everyone. Assuredly, the fear of “slaughterbots” is one we must take seriously and it’s important to maintain a robust dialogue on the ethical applications of military robots.

Precision, Accuracy, and Speed

The prospect of using military robots for improved precision, accuracy, and speed not only translates to success on the battlefield but can also significantly reduce casualties and collateral damage – a tremendous global benefit. During World War II, bombing accuracy varied greatly depending on pilot tactics and emerging technologies. According to The National Museum of The United States Air Force, “In 1943 about 20% of bombs dropped by the Eighth Air Force hit within 1,000 feet of the aiming point,” but following the advent of the Norden Bombsight, “50% of bombs dropped visually hit within 1,000 feet of the target” (National Museum, n.d.). Predictably, the improved technology drastically reduced collateral damage and unintended casualties. Today, our military can place a missile within 1-2 feet, sometimes even navigating missiles through a window based on where their target is located. But the process remains labor-intensive, often relying on dozens of human experts and hours of study. Yet, despite all the meticulous study and robust operating procedures of humans, we still get it wrong at times, resulting in needless wrongful deaths and collateral damage. Just reference the headlines coming out of Gaza. Humans are inherently flawed, subject to fatigue, emotion, biases, and a range of cognitive limitations.

The hope is that AI-enabled robots can significantly reduce causalities and collateral damage in wartime by revolutionizing the precision, speed, and accuracy of military decision-making. Peter Margulies, a consultant in national security, cybersecurity, and legal ethics, emphasizes the possibility of using AI situational awareness technology (SAT) to promote compliance with international humanitarian laws (pg.3, 2018). Margules contends that SAT technology has three precautionary measures: contingency, imperfect information, and confirmation bias. Predictably, all three of these play a large role in war. He breaks down SAT into three roles: “the gatekeeper” which provides necessary information, “cancellation SAT” which can respond to unexpected events, and “behavioral SAT” which identifies and corrects flaws in targeting processes including information bias. Ultimately, Marguiles (2018) argues that SAT technology can be the “conscience” of machines to help make rapid decisions in combat while limiting unintended casualties and collateral damage. 

Ethical Debate

            Despite all the potential, the prospect of AI-enabled robots making life-and-death decisions on their own remains a hot topic for debate. But the conversation must be more nuanced than fearmongering against all AI-enabled robots. According to De Swarte, et al. (2019), there are two types of AI: weak and strong. Weak AI or narrow AI is designed and trained for a specific task or a limited set of tasks. Strong AI can understand, learn, and apply intelligence across a broad range of tasks, like human intelligence. “In fact, a system embedding strong AI is able to learn without human intelligence assistance or injection of additional data since the AI algorithm generates its own knowledge” (De Swarte et al, 2019). For this reason, AI robots need ethical frameworks, no different than humans. But teaching AI-enabled robots ethics is complex and challenging, requiring robust collaboration across engineers, ethicists, policymakers, and society. Many believe that while we have made tremendous advances in AI technology, it is still not ready for mainstream wartime applications. As Missy Cummings (2017)  notes, while autonomous systems and AI outperform humans in some tasks, particularly skill-based tasks, she believes humans still hold a significant edge over AI systems when judgment and expert knowledge is required.

Where Do We Go From Here?

On September 6, 2023, Dr. Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Secretary of Defense announced the establishment of the Replicator Initiative, an effort to accelerate the production of autonomous system in the Department of Defense. Hicks (2023) outlined the goal for replicators is to “to field attributable autonomous systems at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months” – no small feat. Dr. Hicks (2023) went on to elaborate, “This is about driving culture change just as much as technology change.” She’s right. The technology of AI-enabled robots exists today and the prevalence on the battlefields demonstrates our adversaries are willing to employ them. We risk being left behind, but more importantly, we risk not being a part of the dialogue shaping global norms and behaviors.

Brianna Rosen (2023), a long-time government official with experience in the White House National Security Council and in the Office of the Vice President, emphasizes that the most immediate threat is not for an “AI apocalypse.” Instead, she believes the most prevalent risk is humans leveraging AI to redefine patterns of violence and acceptable warfare. In her contributions, she offers key proposals for policymakers to consider protecting civilians, including, the development of a government-wide policy on the use of AI in war, a two-person rule during applications of AI that involve life or death determinations, and routine AI health audits. Ultimately, Rosen’s work emphasizes the currency on this topic and hope that we can still govern the use of AI in war. Based on Dr. Hicks announcement two months ago, the Department of Defense clearly intends to scale AI-enabled robots. Let’s hope we do it smartly.

Conclusion

            In conclusion, the integration of AI and robotics in modern warfare is rapidly reshaping military strategies. Military robots, powered by advanced algorithms, promise enhanced precision and speed, potentially reducing casualties. The ethical debate underscores the need for nuanced discussions and the establishment of ethical frameworks. Initiatives like Replicator Initiative indicate a commitment to accelerating autonomous systems, but policymakers must ensure a balance between technological innovation and ethical considerations. The future of military robots lies in responsible deployment, contributing positively to global security while upholding fundamental values.