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BUS 461 Discussion 1

Prior to beginning work on this discussion forum, read Chapter 5: Probability and Probability Distributions, and make sure to read and reflect on the “Game at McDonald’s” that begins Chapter 5, as it will quickly show you how the concept of probability is applied.

Now, strengthen your understanding of the following concepts and terms. Please define and explain how they are applied. In the first part of your initial post,

· Define probability and probability distribution.

· Provide two industry or organization examples when probability is used.

· Explain how probability is used to make business predictions.

A key aspect of solving real business problems is dealing appropriately with uncertainty. This involves recognizing explicitly that uncertainty exists and using quantitative methods to model uncertainty.

In the second part of your initial post,

· Review Section 5-1, and address the following:

· Explain how to use a flow chart for modeling uncertainty.

· Describe how flow charts work and how it is applied.

· Review Sections 5-2a, 5-2b, and 5-2c, and Example 5.1, “Assessing Uncertainty at Bender Company,” and answer the following questions:

· What is the uncertainty in Example 5.1, and how can it be assessed?

· How were probability rules applied?

· What is a probability tree and how did the probability tree that is depicted in Figure 5.2 help them confront uncertainty?

Discussion 2

Prior to beginning work on this forum, read Chapter 6 of your text, and review and reflect on Sections 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, and 6-6. Also, review the webpage Using Decision Trees in Finance (Links to an external site.) .

Please read the Example 6.1, “New Product Decisions at ACME” in the course text. Next, assume you are CEO of the ACME company. You must decide whether to market a new product. The product is currently part way through the development process, and some fixed development costs have already been occurred.

In your initial post, using the completed Example 6.1, “New Product Decisions at ACME,” apply each of the Elements of Decision Analysis (Section 6-2), and explain how they apply to Example 6.1. Basically, what you are doing is interpreting Example 6.1 and applying it to the elements of decision analysis.

Use the following elements of decision analysis subheadings as you compose your post:

· Problem identification

· Possible decisions

· Possible outcomes

· Probabilities of outcomes

· Payoffs and Costs

· Decision Criterion

· Create a decision tree illustrating the elements of decision analysis

· Refer to Figures 6.5 and 6.6.

BUS 461 Assignment

Case Study: Uncertainty

[WLOs: 1, 2, 3, 4] [CLOs: 1, 2, 3, 5]

Prior to beginning work on this assignment, review Chapter 6: Decision Making Under Uncertainty.

Read Case 6.4, “Developing a Helicopter Component for the ARMY” in your course text.

For Part 1 of this assignment, using an Excel spreadsheet,

· Develop a decision tree to maximize Ventron’s expected monetary value (EMV).

· This includes the revenue from this project, the side benefits (if applicable) from an improved extrusion process, and relevant costs.

· You don’t need to worry about time value of money; that is, no discounting or net present values are required.

· Summarize your findings in words in the spreadsheet.

For Part 2 of this assignment, in a one to two page paper,

· Determine what value of side benefits would make Ventron indifferent between the two alternatives.

· Evaluate how much Ventron would be willing to pay, right now, for perfect information about both steps of the improved extrusion process.

The Case Study: Uncertainty paper

· Must be one to two double-spaced pages in length (not including title and references pages) and formatted according to APA Style (Links to an external site.) as outlined in the Writing Center’s APA Formatting for Microsoft Word (Links to an external site.) resource.

· Must include a separate title page with the following:

· Title of paper in bold font

· Space should appear between the title and the rest of the information on the title page.

· Student’s name

· Name of institution (The University of Arizona Global Campus)

· Course name and number

· Instructor’s name

· Due date

· Must utilize academic voice. See the Academic Voice (Links to an external site.) resource for additional guidance.

· Must include an introduction and conclusion paragraph. Your introduction paragraph needs to end with a clear thesis statement that indicates the purpose of your paper.

· For assistance on writing Introductions & Conclusions (Links to an external site.) and Writing a Thesis Statement (Links to an external site.) , refer to the Writing Center resources.

· Must use at least two credible sources in addition to the course text.

· The Scholarly, Peer-Reviewed, and Other Credible Sources (Links to an external site.) table offers additional guidance on appropriate source types. If you have questions about whether a specific source is appropriate for this assignment, please contact your instructor. Your instructor has the final say about the appropriateness of a specific source.

· To assist you in completing the research required for this assignment, view Quick and Easy Library Research (Links to an external site.) tutorial, which introduces the University of Arizona Global Campus Library and the research process, and provides some library search tips.

· Must document any information used from sources in APA Style as outlined in the Writing Center’s APA: Citing Within Your Paper (Links to an external site.) guide.

· Must include a separate references page that is formatted according to APA Style as outlined in the Writing Center. See the APA: Formatting Your References List (Links to an external site.) resource in the Writing Center for specifications.

Carefully review the Grading Rubric (Links to an external site.) for the criteria that will be used to evaluate your assignment

MGT 323 Discussion 1

Prior to beginning work on this discussion forum, read Chapter 3: Creating and Managing Supplier Relationships in the textbook, read the Raytheon article, How They Did It: Supplier Relationship Management at Raytheon (Links to an external site.) , and watch the video, Role of Procurement in Supply Chain Management With Avetta | Overview (Links to an external site.) .

Read the Raytheon case study and consider the following questions for this discussion forum:

· What is the value to the company and the supplier in developing and implementing a supplier relationship management (SRM) system?

· Describe the value of it to the organization. How can such a system provide greater efficiency regarding customer satisfaction, quality, time, cost, and assets?

· What did Raytheon do that was so successful?

· Find another company to use as a model for this discussion and share your findings about their supplier relationship management and why it works for them. What did they do that is unique? Why did their strategy work?

Discussion 2

Prior to beginning work on this discussion forum, read Chapter 4: Ethical and Sustainable Sourcing in the textbook.

Describe the role of both ethical and sustainable sourcing strategies in logistics design, and how an organization may be affected by this approach. Why are these practices a priority for some companies? What challenges might be present when integrating sustainable and ethical practices to a supply chain? Share an example of at least one company that uses good sustainable sourcing strategies and what they do.

MGT 323 Assignments

Global Supply Chain Management

[WLO: 3] [CLOs: 2, 5, 6]

Prior to beginning work on this assignment, read Chapter 11 in the textbook.

All companies utilize global supply chain management strategy in one form or another. Some firms participate in global sourcing when they need to grow their supply bases, develop procurement options, or diversify their products and services portfolio through imports from foreign countries. Many successful companies are also looking to expand the market share for their products through exports sales or manufacture their products overseas and, as a result, formulate their global location plans. All these activities would not be possible without a strong global supply chain strategy. While international expansion creates competitive advantage and lucrative opportunities for any company, these activities also expose firms to additional risks, including international trade barriers, foreign currencies fluctuations, economic, political, and cultural differences, and multiple “red tapes” created by foreign governments, as you learned last week in Chapter 2. Chapter 11 this week adds to that knowledge. If not properly mitigated, these risks may significantly hinder the bottom line and the overall reputation of the company.

In your paper,

· Examine a company with a successful global supply chain strategy. First, provide basic background information about the company. Then, discuss the supply chain strategy this company utilizes in order to get their products or services distributed internationally.

· Describe the partners and how they help serve customers.

· Identify at least two risks discussed in your textbook, as applied to your selected company. Are there any risks involved in the company’s international operations? Briefly describe these risks, and explain how the company mitigates the risks in order to meet business demands.

· Summarize how the company manages customer satisfaction and profitability levels and ensures the effectiveness of their global supply chain strategy in terms of quality, time, and costs involved.

The Global Supply Chain Management paper

· Must be two to three double-spaced pages in length (not including title and references pages) and formatted according to APA Style (Links to an external site.) as outlined in the Writing Center’s APA Formatting for Microsoft Word (Links to an external site.) .

· Must include a separate title page with the following:

· Title of paper in bold font

· Space should appear between the title and the rest of the information on the title page.

· Student’s name

· Name of institution (University of Arizona Global Campus)

· Course name and number

· Instructor’s name

· Due date

· Must utilize academic voice. See the Academic Voice (Links to an external site.) resource for additional guidance.

· Must include an introduction and conclusion paragraph. Your introduction paragraph needs to end with a clear thesis statement that indicates the purpose of your paper.

· For assistance on writing Introductions & Conclusions (Links to an external site.) as well as Writing a Thesis Statement (Links to an external site.) , refer to the Writing Center resources.

· Must use at least two scholarly, peer-reviewed or credible sources in addition to the course text.

· To assist you in completing the research required for this assignment, view The University of Arizona Global Campus Library Quick ‘n’ Dirty (Links to an external site.) tutorial, which introduces the University of Arizona Global Campus Library and the research process, and provides some library search tips.

· Must document any information used from sources in APA Style as outlined in the Writing Center’s APA: Citing Within Your Paper (Links to an external site.) .

Carefully review the Grading Rubric (Links to an external site.) for the criteria that will be used to evaluate your assignment.