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Week2-Assignment2-Probability.xls
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ASSIGNMENT 2 - PROBABILITY
[Overtype your name in this cell]
In your own words, define probability 4 pts
1).-
Out of 94 people that reviewed the movie Season of the Witch (2011), 90 gave it very low scores and only 4 believed it was a good movie.Using the Subjective Approach, the probability that this movie will have very high box office revenues is:
2).- Choose only one answer: Put an "X" in the cell next to your answer 2 pts
Very High
Somewhat high
Neither high nor low
Somewhat low
Very low
Source: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/10010694-season_of_the_witch/
In your own words define Elementary Event: 3 pts
3).-
4).- A family has enough time and money to see only one movie, they all agree to see The Green Hornet. This is an example of an Elementary Event. 2 pts
Choose only one answer: ✖
TRUE
5).- In your own words, define Joint Event. 4 pts
6).- According to Video Game Voters.org, 38% of all games sold in the U.S. would be purchased by women. Explain why is this a joint event. 4 pts
Source: http://videogamevoters.org/pages/top_10_gamer_facts/
7).- In your own words, define Random Variable. 3 pts
8).- In your own words, define Collectively Exhaustive Event. 4 pts
9).- If you have two, 6-sided dice, what are all the possible outcomes of rolling these dice? (Remember: a combination of (1,3) is different from a combination of (3,1); these are separate events! 4 pts
10).- Calculate the probability that the outcome of the above dice roll will add up to seven. Show your calculations. 3 pts
11).- In your own words, define the Classical Approach to assigning probabilities. 4 pts
12).- Is the calculation in question 10 an example of the Clasical Approach? Explain why or why not. 4 pts
13).- In your own words, define the Empirical Approach to assigning probabilities. 4 pts
14).- As Program Director of a Radio Station, you receive a report from an independent service that shows that out of 100 songs played, the same song was played 7 times. Using the Empirical Approach, calculate the probability that song will be played next. 3 pts
15).- Using your answers to questions 10 and 14, explain the difference between the Classical and the Empirical approaches to calculating probabilities. 4 pts
16).- In your own words, define the Subjective Approach to assigning probabilities. Provide an example. 4 pts
17).- Roxie Balboa, the fighter that you are willing to represent had 50 fights, winning 47 and losing 3 fights. Calculate the possibility that she will win her next fight. Explain how you arrived at your answer. 3 pts
18).- Calculate the probability that she will lose her next fight and explain how you arrived at your answer. 3 pts
19).- In your own words, state the First Rule that governs Probability Calculation. 3 pts
20).- In your own words, state the Second Rule that governs Probability Calculation. 3 pts
21).- Using your answers to questions 17 and 18, explain the Second Rule of Probability. 3 pts
22).- Using your answer to question 18, explain the Third Rule of Probability. 3 pts
23).- In your own words, state the Fourth Rule of Probability. 3 pts
24).- The Florida Tourist Commission selected a random sample of 200 people that attended one or more concerts during the first weekend in April of 2010. The survey revealed that 120 concert goers went to Orlampa Skydome and 100 went to the Bithlo Megaplax. Calculate the probability that a selected concert goer during the same weekend next year will go to either the Orlampa Skydome OR the Bithlo Megaplax?
P(Orlampa Skydome or Bithlo Megaplax) = P(Orlampa Skydome) + P(Bithlo Megaplax) - P(Orlampa Skydome AND Bithlo Megaplax)
Book Notation: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) 3 pts
25).- How did you arrive at your answer?
3 pts
Two performers want you to represent them but you can only represent one of them. Your income would be based on a commission based on total ticket sales. The following data shows the revenue generated during their last six concerts and a list of the concerts that the performer cancelled. When a performer cancels, those ticket sales are lost, not to mention the bad publicity a cancelled show generates.
Performer's Name Concert Date Revenue Cancelled Concerts
Geoff Ball 12/11/05 285,700
12/30/05 384,989
1/24/06 0 Last Minute
3/12/06 265,018
5/26/06 0 Last Minute
12/30/06 473,000
Phillipe Nogigg 12/4/05 213,600
12/8/05 229,879
12/30/05 295,045
10/29/06 0 Snowed in
11/31/2010 237,892
12/17/06 242,346
26).- Calculate the probability that Geoff will cancel his next concert 3 pts
27).- Calculate the probability that Phillipe will cancel his next concert 3 pts
28).- Calculate the Average Revenue produced by Geoff Ball 3 pts
29).- Calculate the Average Revenue produced by Phillipe Noggig 3 pts
30).- Using the data in the question above, explain which performer you would represent and why? Justify your answer using numerical data from above.(One paragraph, 3 to 5 sentences) 5 pts
STA 3026 Week 2: Assignment 2 - Probability The objectives of this assignment are to help you: Demonstrate understanding of probability vocabulary Demonstrate how to probability using Classical Empirical and/ or Subjective approaches Use probability to make decisions In this assignment, you will demonstrate your knowledge of the terms and concepts in Chapter 4 of Even You Can Learn Statistics (EYCLS). Please answer the questions in the marked boxes. Be sure to follow these guidelines: 1. Use the concepts from the textbook and lecture to answer the questions. Make sure to use your own words for all definitions. 2. Each question has a point value that is noted next to the answer box, the total points in this assignment is 100. Points are deducted as follow: Incomplete/Partial answers: -1 point Incorrect answers: -2 points Answers left blank or no answers: all points that the question is worth will be deducted Your grade is calculated by subtracting all deducted points from 100. 3. Name your file as follows: FirstNameLastNameA2.

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