reading reviews on disaster management
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Week1Lecture-2020.pptxWelcome to AIS 5337: Disaster Management, Development and Regional Governance in Asia
Danny Marks
Course Introduction
Myself
Syllabus
Course Rules
No question is a stupid one! Please raise your hand and stop me at any point
No chit chat!
Yourself
Why should we care about disasters?
In 2018, there were 315 natural disaster events recorded with 11,804 deaths, over 68 million people affected, and US$131.7 billion in economic losses across the world.
The burden was not shared equally: Asia suffered the highest impact and accounted for 45% of disaster events, 80% of deaths, and 76% of people affected.
And why study them?
1) We are rushing headlong into a calamitous future - The future is uncertain and the evidence that we have predicts apocalyptic scenarios if we do not change course but rather continue to over-consume and destroy our only world. This gives a massive sense of urgency to the research field.
Think of recent forest fires in Australia
2) It is a pathway to protect the vulnerable - Disasters are about people at risk. Those most affected by disasters are the most marginalised, discriminated against, dispossessed and displaced in our society. They need to have a platform for their voices to be heard. A disaster researcher has a great opportunity to connect human IMPACTS to ROOT CAUSES, and make evidence-based arguments for change. 3) Complex, extreme conditions are not well understood - Most conventional knowledge is built on what we can predict and, ever more widely, what we can model. Outliers are not recognised in our computations and as a society we are broadly ignorant of disaster risk. We need more complete, more straightforward and more challenging data.
4) It is an outlet for activism - Disasters are political! Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. The biggest challenges in communicating truths about disaster are myths and misconceptions, widely held in our society. BUT people are interested, and they do care. Convincing arguments can be made and turned into action in this field that certainly grabs the attention. 5) The current system is not working - The status quo is creating risk, not reducing risk. Our leaders are either blind to the dangers of maintaining the social/economic/political order or are owned by special interests in rejecting the consideration of alternatives. The study of disasters provides a perspective on this dilemma. 6) Disasters highlight socio-economic inequality and injustice - This is a unique place from which to critique the many structural failures in our society. As we investigate why people are at risk, how they are impacted and how they can avoid future calamity, we have the opportunity to collaborate with other disciplines to develop more holistic responses to injustice.
What is a disaster?
https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZXNcli9suo
What’s your reaction to the clip?
Given this course, is on disasters – how would you define one? Any guesses?
How is it different than a hazard?
Hazard is a natural phenomenon that could but may not trigger a disaster
Examples include volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and storms
Movement of Earth’s crustal plates triggers earthquakes and tsunamis.
Variation in solar radiation entering the atmosphere and oceans triggers storms in the summertime and blizzards in winter.
The movement of energy in Earth’s system is what drives these natural processes.
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So how is a disaster different from a hazard?
Disasters occur because of the intersection of hazard with exposed people and assets that are vulnerable to the hazard.
A disaster is a sudden, calamitous event that seriously disrupts the functioning of a community or society and causes human, material, and economic or environmental losses that exceed the community’s or society’s ability to cope using its own resources.
Vulnerability is the “characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of a natural hazard” (Wisner et al 2004)
Are disasters on the rise?
Yes!
Quadrupled (400% more) in last 40 years
And even more than in last 100 years
Number of Disasters: 1900-2011
More frequent & intense extreme weather events
Criteria for inclusion as disaster. Any guess?
10 or more people dead
100 or more people affected (which means people requiring immediate assistance during a period of emergency, i.e. requiring basic survival needs such as food, water, shelter, sanitation and immediate medical assistance.)
The declaration of a state of emergency
A call for international assistance
Why do you think many more disasters & increased damage/injury from them today?
Increased population – greater number of people exposed to them
But also greater concentration – more people live in cities so if these cities are hit, higher damage and losses
Better reporting technology/information – before some parts of globe couldn’t report (e.g., were isolated)
Climate change
Environmental change within country.
Can think of any examples?
Cutting down of mangrove forests – worse waves/erosion
Cutting down trees – more flash foods
Concretization and filling in of waterways – more runoff for floods
Building in hazardous areas, e.g., upon hill or mountain -> landslides
Climate emergency and disasters
Climate Change & Extreme Weather Events/Disasters
Greenhouse Gas Effect
Of GHG: carbon most abundant followed by methane and then ozone
C02 is a major player; without any of it in the air, Earth would be a frozen wasteland
The gas has increased 43% above the pre-industrial level so far
When did human start having a big impact?
Humans started having a big impact during the Industrial Revolution due to the invention of the steam engine and production of coal.
One of the keys to the Revolution was the invention of the coal-powered steam engine because it freed up energy constraints that had previously limited the scale of economic production in the past.
The downside is that the burning of coal and other fossil fuels emits additional carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the air.
Deforestation too increases the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere because it weakens the capacity of sinks. As a result of these two trends, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere has skyrocketed from its pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million (ppm) to today’s level of 407 ppm, over 40%
Warming of the Earth’s Surface
The climate has increased 2.0ºF (1.1ºC) since 1880 (when records began at global scale) with the majority of this increase, 1.2ºF (0.7ºC), occurring in the past 30 years
Most regions of the world are warmer now than at any other time since at least 900 CE
In the last 10 years, we have recorded 9 warmest ones
2016 was so far warmest year on record - 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century mean
The number may sound low, but as an average over the surface of an entire planet, it is actually high
Observed change in surface temperature 1901-2012
Chart of Rising Temperatures
C02 Rise Tied to Temperature Rise
How do we know humans are responsible for the increase in carbon dioxide?
Hard evidence, including studies that use radioactivity to distinguish industrial emissions from natural emissions, shows that the extra gas is coming from human activity.
More plant-based isotopes in atmosphere due to fossil fuels (which mainly come from old plants) being burned
Carbon dioxide levels rose and fell naturally in the long-ago past, but those changes took thousands of years.
Geologists say that humans are now pumping the gas into the air much faster than nature has ever done.
Could natural factors be the cause of the warming?
In theory, they could be. If the sun were to start putting out more radiation, for instance, that would definitely warm the Earth.
But scientists have looked carefully at the natural factors known to influence planetary temperature and found that they are not changing nearly enough.
The warming is extremely rapid on the geologic time scale, and no other factor can explain it as well as human emissions of greenhouse gases.
Why climate emergency/climate?
You can think of global warming as one type of climate change. The broader term covers changes beyond warmer temperatures, such as shifting rainfall patterns
Other changes besides warming
Sea level rise: predicted 18-60 cm rise by 2100 -> currently about 3 mm/year worldwide
Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide
Ocean acidification: increase in 30% acidity – 30% of emissions absorbed by oceans
Most of Them Hydrometereological
Hurricanes & typhoons get their energy from warm ocean waters, and the oceans are warming because of the human-caused buildup of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, primarily from the burning of coal, oil and gas.
The strongest hurricanes have gotten stronger because of global warming.
Over the past two years, we have witnessed the most intense hurricanes on record for the globe, in both hemispheres: the Pacific and now, with Irma, the Atlantic.
More Heat Waves
In July 2016, Mitribah, Kuwait reached 129.2 °F (54 °C) and Basra, Iraq reached 129 °F (53.9 °C).
These are the highest temperatures ever recorded in the Eastern Hemisphere and on planet Earth outside of Death Valley
It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land areas on daily and seasonal timescales as global mean temperatures increase.
It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency and duration. Occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur
Some places could become inhabitable
Wildfires
Wildfires are increasing and wildfire season is getting longer (e.g., US & Australia).
Higher spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snow-melt result in forests that are hotter and drier for longer periods of time.
This makes it easier for wildfires to ignite and spread
So who is responsible?
We are!
There is no such thing as a natural disaster – all disasters are manmade
If better building structures, fewer losses and deaths from earthquakes
Better city planning, fewer losses from floods
More mangrove forests, fewer losses from typhoons
But also us for emitting greenhouse gases (burning fossil fuels & cutting down forests)
But there is good news…
Why is this the case?
Richer countries have fewer losses: better infrastructure, better warning systems, better building codes
And there have been improvements in some countries, such as Philippines – better warning system there now
Disasters in Asia
Since 1970 a person living in the Asia-Pacific region has been five times (500%) more likely to be affected by disasters than a person living outside the region.
Between 1970 and 2016, Asia and the Pacific lost $1.3 trillion in assets. Almost all of this was the result of floods, storms, droughts and earthquakes including tsunamis
From 2020-2030: predicted that 40%of global economic losses from disasters will be in Asia
Greatest losses in the largest economies – Japan and China, followed by the Republic of Korea and India
2000-2015: low- and lower middle-income countries experienced by far the most disaster deaths, and lost more people per disaster event
More than 8,000 people died per disaster – almost 15 times the average toll in the region’s high-income countries
Since 1900, 9 of 10 biggest disasters in terms of death toll were in Asia
Big disasters since 2000:
India earthquake in 2001: 20,000 deaths Asian tsunami in 2004: 165,000 deaths
Pakistan earthquake in 2005: 73,000 deaths
Sichuan earthquake in 2008: 87,500 deaths
Cycle Nargis in Myanmar: 138,000 deaths
Thailand floods in 2011: $45 billion in damage
Japan tsunami/earthquake in 2011: 20 killed and $162 billion
Typhoon Haiyan in Philippines in 2013: 7,350 deaths
Women particularly vulnerable in Asia
Some countries are more vulnerable than others
Disasters and development
There has long existed a strong correlation between the magnitude of disaster consequence that affect a country and the levels of poverty that are experienced by its population.
The cost of mitigating significant hazard risk can be extremely – even prohibitively – high. From preparing the land for resistant construction, to building resistant structures, using resistant materials and practices, and maintaining resilience, all come at a cost to the private and public sectors
“Development” is the gradual improvement of a nation’s infrastructure, access to services, institutions, public health, foreign debt, and many other development indicators
It is well documented that countries repeatedly faced with catastrophic (capacity-exceeding) disasters tend to experience stagnant or even negative rates of development over time
So in Asia, lot of poverty but also disasters worsening poverty and hurting development in some countries (e.g., Philippines, Bangladesh)
