Religious-pilgrimage system

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LECTURE WEEK 3 20 SEPTEMBER 2020 HRVA, FALL 2020

Administrative Issues

!. Week 2

2.  Online Learning: Discussion Board

3.  Homework 1.1: Plagiarism and Referencing

4.  Homework 2.1

5.  Quiz 1

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Week 2: Human-Caused Hazards

1.  Accidental Hazards

2.  Intentional Hazards

3.  Underlying Cause: Expected Profits or Utility

4.  Relationship between intentional-hazard probability and asset’s characteristics

5.  Net Utility Gain analysis for determining magnitude of terrorist attack

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Concept of Vulnerability

1.  Vulnerability: Relationship between a Hazard’s magnitude and Asset’s destruction

2.  Vulnerability as a characteristic of the asset being threatened

3.  The frequency and magnitude of a natural hazard is independent of the asset’s

vulnerability.

4.  The frequency and magnitude of an intentional hazard depends on the asset’s

vulnerability.

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Vulnerability as Slope

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Hazard Magnitude

Asset Loss ($)

Low Vulnerability

High vulnerability

Four Categories of Vulnerability

1.  Physical or technological (Infrastructure)

2.  Social and Cultural (People)

3.  Financial and Economic (Money)

4.  Environmental or Natural (Nature)

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1st Category of Vulnerability: Weak External Protection

1.  How strong are the external defenses of an asset? 2.  How well can protections keep the hazard from reaching the asset? 3.  Examples

1.  Walls, Fences, Moats, and Gates

2.  Body Armor 3.  Protective clothing (Sun glasses, keffiyeh, thobe…)

4.  I.D. Checks at front gates

5.  Dams, levees, dikes and weirs

6.  Bumpers, windshields and shock absorbers in cars

7.  Passwords (websites, files)

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2nd Category of Vulnerability: Weak Internal Resistance

1.  How strong can an asset resist a hazard after it has broken through the external defenses?

2.  Will the asset’s system endure minor damage or completely collapse?

3.  Examples: 1.  World Trade Center in 9/11 (2001)

2.  Mecca Crane whne subject to high wind speeds (2015)

3.  Saudi Aramco refinery under Houthi drone and missile attack (2019)

4.  Riyadh when subject to Abdulaziz ibn Saud’s sneak attack (1902) 5.  Titanic Oceanliner after striking an iceberg (1911)

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Vulnerability as Probability of Failure

Vulnerability: Probability that External Defense and/or Internal Resistance will fail to

provide protection.

Low External Vulnerability: External security system leads to capture and arrest of

90% of burglary attempts.

High Internal Vulnerability: Building sprinkler system extinguishes only 20% of fires.

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