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The Long Economic and Political Shadow of History
Volume I. A Global View
Edited by Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
Centre for Economic Policy Research
33 Great Sutton Street London EC1V 0DX Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 Email: [email protected] www.cepr.org
Study the past if you would define the future, Confucius wisely argued. Do the roots of development go back to the pre-industrial times and the Neolithic Revolution? How do the legal systems, colonial institutions and practices transplanted by Europeans; the presence of colonisers themselves; and early colonial investments influence contemporary comparative development? What is the legacy of Africa’s slave trades and the artificial drawing of borders? What are the drivers of the divergent development paths of South and North America, states in India, and the North and South of Italy? How have the Enlightenment and the Protestant Reformation shaped European development? How deep is anti-Semitism in Europe? And what is the aftermath of the Holocaust in Russia? Do Nazi occupation and communism still matter? And how? Are there long-run consequences of environmental features and disasters?
Historians have long studied the origins and implications of important events; and sociologists, political scientists and anthropologists have debated fiercely the role of culture, genetics, and evolutionary features on long-run development. Over the past decades, it is economists, working on growth, who are ‘rediscovering’ the importance of history. A vibrant, far-reaching inter-disciplinary stream of work has emerged. Historical archives, anthropological, linguistic, and archaeological maps, genetic evidence, satellite images and geographic endowments, are blended with econometric techniques and theoretical models to tackle controversial issues. The findings of this ambitious research agenda are novel and fascinating. This e-book summarises some influential works from this new research agenda examining the shadow that history casts over various aspects of the economy and the polity. While there are many open issues and debates and although development is not deterministic, one message is clear: We are shaped by history (Martin Luther King Jr).
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CEPR Press CEPR Press
A VoxEU.org Book
January 2017
9 780995 470156
ISBN 978-0-9954701-5-6
The long economic and political shadow of history - Volume I. A global view
CEPR Press
Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street London, EC1V 0DX UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cepr.org
ISBN: 978-0-9954701-5-6
Copyright © CEPR Press, 2017.
Cover image: bigstock
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I: A Global View
Edited by Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
A VoxEU.org eBook
January 2017
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of over 1,000 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision- makers.
CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellence with policy relevance’.
A registered charity since it was founded in 1983, CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society.
CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Trustees of the Centre do not give prior review to its publications. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of CEPR.
Chair of the Board Sir Charlie Bean Founder and Honorary President Richard Portes President Richard Baldwin Research Director Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke Policy Director Charles Wyplosz Chief Executive Officer Tessa Ogden
Contents
Foreword vi
i Series Introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development viii Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
1 Introduction: A global view 1 Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
2 On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history 7 Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil
3 Deep roots of comparative development 19 Quamrul H. Ashraf and Oded Galor
4 Barriers to the spread of prosperity 51 Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg
5 Environmental economic history 63 James Fenske and Namrata Kala
6 The persistence of technological creativity and the Great Enrichment: Reflections on the “Rise of Europe.” 73 Joel Mokyr
7 The economic impact of colonialism 81 Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson
8 Legal origins 89 Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer,and Robert Vishny
9 The European origins of economic development 99 William Easterly and Ross Levine
10 On the long-run effects of colonial legacies. Evidence from small islands 107 James Feyrer and Bruce Sacerdote
11 Maritime technology, trade, and economic development. evidence from the first era of trade globalisation 117 Luigi Pascali
vi
Foreword
The origins and implications of important events have long been studied by historians.
Over the recent decades, economists have realised the importance of incorporating
these insights into their research agenda. By using this cross-disciplinary approach,
a fascinating body of new research on economics examines the influence of historical
events on various aspects of the economy and polity.
In this eBook, which is the first volume of three, the authors seek an understanding
of the deep factors shaping development of economic and political structures across
the globe. The authors span a period of ancient to modern history; this e-Book series
summarises research studying the long-lasting importance of events such as the
Neolithic Revolution; Africa’s slave trade; the Columbian exchange; the Protestant
Reformation; the Enlightenment; Nazi occupation; the holocaust and communism.
In discussing these events, the chapters summarise new insights on how colonisation;
geography; legal systems, culture and genetic diversity have contributed to the large
and growing variation in economic and political performance around the world.
The authors envisage the future of economics in this area as inter-disciplinary. By
evaluating geographical, sociological, anthropological and political factors, they hope
to provide a new research agenda for the discipline of economics. Building on the
works covered in this book, new research should blend historical data, anthropological
maps, and information on land endowments, with high-quality geo-referenced big-data
proxies of development.
CEPR is grateful to Professors Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou for their
joint editorship of this eBook series. CEPR is also grateful to the authors of the eBook
chapters. Some are global thought leaders, others are established scholars employed
at the very best academic institutions in Europe and the United States, while some
chapters are authored by promising, talented and energetic young scholars. Our thanks
Foreword
vii
also go to Sophie Roughton and Simran Bola for their excellent and swift handling of its
production. CEPR, which takes no institutional positions on economic policy matters,
is delighted to provide a platform for an exchange of views on this crucially important
topic, the legacy of important historical events on contemporary development.
Tessa Ogden
Chief Executive Officer, CEPR
January 2017
Study the past if you would define the future.
Confucius
We are made by history.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
1 The emergence of New Economic History
Those 18th and 19th century philosophers who shaped economic thought (David Ricardo,
Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Stuart Mill), in company with early 20th century scholars
such as John Maynard Keynes and Joseph Schumpeter, believed in the blending of core
economic ideas (value maximisation, incentives, market laws) with history. Political
economy – as economics was referred to at the time – was a discipline that combined
elements from a wide array of social sciences and interpreted them with its new tools.
Yet, efforts to draw insights from history and related disciplines with which to shed
light on economic questions lost steam during the latter part of the last century.
The neoclassical approach would leave little room for a deeper understanding of
important historical events in the growth process, such as colonisation, institutional
changes and cultural traits that most people would instinctively see as fundamental
drivers of comparative development. Not modelling explicitly the role of history,
geography-ecology, and culture (religion, beliefs, family ties, norms), led to these
features being viewed empirically as a ‘residual’ of the growth process driven by
capital deepening, either in the physical sense of tools and machines or in the human
sense of education and health. And while new growth theories show how small
i Series Introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou Brown University and CEPR; London Business School and CEPR
viii
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
ix
differences in initial endowments may translate into large differences when it comes to
urbanisation, agglomeration, and well-being, they were agnostic on the origins of these
initial conditions, naturally rooted in the historical record. But economists’ disregard
for history was not confined to the growth literature or macroeconomics. The total
number of published economic history papers in ‘top’ general-interest journals declined
(McCloskey 1976, Abramitzky 2015), as economists moved from relatively simple,
intuitive theories and applied methods to more complex, often esoteric, mathematical
models and elaborate quantitative-econometric empirical approaches (see also Temin
2013).1 However, since the late 1990s there has been a revival; a ‘new economic
history’ literature has emerged that studies important historical episodes, with the goal
of tracing their consequences on contemporary outcomes. This new literature applies
economic models and econometric techniques to examine the shadow that history casts
over various aspects of the economy and the polity.2
As is typical with history, the process of being ‘rediscovered’ among economists –
learning from the past and uncovering its legacy – has been gradual; and clearly there
were important works of economic history between the 1950s and 1990s, such as
Douglass North’s Structure and Change in Economic History in 1981 and Avner Greif’s
work on the interplay of culture and institutions (Greif 1993, 1994). Yet, the tipping
point seems to be a trio of influential works that appeared in the late 1990s. Acemoglu
et al. (2001, 2002, 2005) put forward the ‘colonial origins of comparative development’
thesis, where the type of colonial strategy and early colonial institutions influenced
subsequent economic and political development. The ‘law and finance’ works of La
Porta, Lopez de-Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny (1997, 1998, 2006) showed that legal
origins transplanted during colonisation have a significant bearing on contemporary
1 The origin of this paradigm shift seems to be the publication of Paul Samuelson’s revolutionary textbook, The
Foundations of Economic Analysis in 1947. While the use of mathematics goes back to Alfred Marshall, John Hicks,
Edgeworth, and others, Samuelson is rightly credited for trying to synthesise and mathematically formalise economic
reasoning (see Temin 2013).
2 The global financial meltdown of 2007-2009 and the associated deep recession renewed the interest of macro-economists
working on business cycles, monetary and fiscal policy in economic history. Somewhat paradoxically, as “dynamic
macro” didn’t have much of an interest in history, two of the main protagonists of policymaking in the aftermath of the
crisis, Ben Bernanke and Christina Romer, were among the best scholars of the Great Depression and other historical
crisis periods.
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contractual institutions and finance. Engerman and Sokoloff (1997, 2002) argued that
colonial-era inequality, shaped by the type of colonial strategy employed (mining,
plantations), explains the divergent development paths of Southern and Northern
America. The analysis of historical events was also fuelled by important theoretical
contributions; the development of ‘unified growth theory’ (Galor and Weil 1999, 2000,
Galor 2011) which brought to the foreground the study of pre-industrial (Malthusian)
and modern economies in a unified framework; and the game-theoretic modelling of
both institutions and ‘class struggles’ (Acemoglu and Robinson 2000, 2001). For a
textbook treatment see Acemoglu and Robinson (2006) and Besley and Persson’s (2011)
that study jointly the co-evolution of economic and political development, through the
lens of ethnic fragmentation, inequality and conflict, which, in turn, may be shaped by
geographic, cultural or historical forces.
At the same time, the profession was greatly influenced by Jared Diamond’s magnum
opus, Guns, Germs, and Steel. Blending insights from geography, biology (zoology),
cultural anthropology, sociology, and even archaeology, Diamond provided a powerful
thesis on economic and political development over the long run. While Diamond
stressed the importance of geography-ecology in shaping institutional, political, and
societal traits, which in turn impact development, in parallel work David S. Landes
(1998) stressed the role of family ties, religion, beliefs and norms, arguing forcefully
that “culture makes all the difference”. Besides their original contributions, these works
also brought to the forefront old ideas that had been side-lined – for example, Max
Weber’s thesis on the importance of Protestantism in the Industrial and Commercial
Revolution, or Friedrich Hayek’s ideas linking legal-origin traditions to economic
freedom and prosperity.
The new economic history follows an inter-disciplinary approach, integrating historical
narratives and insights from other-than-economics social sciences (mostly sociology,
political science and anthropology) with mathematical models, and formally tests
long-standing, influential conjectures with econometric techniques. This eBook series
summarises contributions aimed at uncovering The long economic and political shadow
of history3. Some of the themes of these works transcend continents (like colonisation),
3 Nunn (2009, 2014) provides a thorough overview of this body of research. See also Spolaore and Wacziarg (2014).
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
xi
some are regional (e.g., the spread of Protestantism in Europe or the slave trades in
Africa), while others are country(ies)-specific (e.g., the French Revolution’s impact
in France and Germany, the impact of the Holocaust in Russia, the Nazi occupation of
Italy, and the impact of communism). The works covered in this eBook series differ
in their focus. Some stress the role of cultural traits, such as religion (e.g., Becker and
Woessman 2009) and beliefs (Voigtländer and Voth 2012, Grosfeld and Zhuravskaya
2013); others emphasise the importance of ‘early’ institutional structures, related to
colonial practices (Naritomi, Soares, and Assunção 2012), colonial ‘indirect-rule’
(Acemoglu, Reed, and Robinson 2014, Iyer 2011), ‘forced labour’ systems (Dell 2010,
Lowes and Montero 2016) and the forced placement of indigenous tribes in special
reserves (Dippel 2013); others stress the impact of the environment, geography, and
ecology (e.g., Hornbeck and Naidu 2015, Ashraf and Galor 2003); and Fenske and Kala
provide, in Volume I, a synopsis of ‘Environmental Economic History’. Some studies
analyse the long-lasting effects of colonial investments in roads and railroads (Jedwab,
Kerby, and Moradi 2016) and ports (Jia 2014), or the effect of Christian missions on
education, health, and beliefs (Cage and Rueda 2016, Valencia 2016) whereas others
explore the legacies of relatively recent historical events, examining the impact of the
Holocaust (Acemoglu et al. 2014), communism (Alesina and Fuchs-Schundlen 2007),
and Nazi occupation (Fontana et al. 2016) not only on economic development, but also
on inequality, beliefs and political participation. Some works analyse the long-lasting
effect of specific migration movements – for example Moser et al. (2014) examine
the impact of Jewish émigré scientists leaving Nazi Germany on US innovation, while
Grosjean and Khattar (2015) and Grosjean and Brooks (2016) study the impact of
convict transportation from England to Australia, during the 18th and 19th century, on
contemporary culture.
While there have been many influential contributions, there are many open issues. As
the literature has tackled important and highly controversial subjects, there is naturally
a debate and therefore more research is needed to develop a clearer view of these topics.
For example, while there is not much ambiguity that the type of colonisation, or the
identity of the colonial power, was consequential for contemporary development, there
is still debate on the exact mechanisms at work. This is a hard task, as such large-scale
episodes affect not only the economy, but also beliefs and norms, institutions, and the
distribution of economic, and political power. Another open issue regards the potential
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Volume I. A Global View
interactions of historical events with critical junctures in the process of development;
for example, the negative consequences of forced labour systems in Latin America and
Africa may be large and long-lasting, since they prevented industrialisation at a time
of massive technological innovation. In line with this, Pascali (2017) finds that the
trade and growth benefits of the introduction of the steam engine, during the first era
of globalisation, were especially large in countries with strong executive constraints
and checks-and-balances. Likewise, the high levels of civicness in Medieval Italian
city-states, which correlate strongly with beliefs and development (Guiso et al. 2016),
may have been especially important during the Enlightenment and the subsequent
Commercial and Industrial Revolution.
While the papers summarised in this eBook series all reveal considerable persistence,
they do not imply that development is entirely determinist; leadership and policies
promoting investment and human capital accumulation or policies and technologies
enabling trade integration do matter4. So, while on the surface, there may seem to be
a tension between studies uncovering the shadow of history and the ability of policy
to affect development (Banerjee and Duflo 2014), the works below can be viewed as
showing that important policy decisions occurring in ‘critical’ times do have long-
lasting effects (that subsequent policy-makers find hard to reverse). For example, as
the chapter of La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer and Vishny puts it, while laws often
change, the associated legal environment and culture is much harder to modify, since
they depend on judges and lawyers’ training, legal tradition, precedent, and social
norms. The works summarised in this eBook series, as well as other important studies
in the same genre, carry an obvious, yet often neglected, lesson. The success of any
policy implemented crucially depends on the underlying institutional and cultural
heritage of a given society, therefore it is vital for policymakers, development actors
and investors to understand the historical context, so as to model incentives and design
effective interventions.
Despite the wide-ranging topics that contributions to this eBook series cover, there are
many, often not fully-appreciated, similarities across them.
4 See for example Jones and Olken’s (2005, 2010) innovative studies on the role of leadership on growth.
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
xiii
First, an element that quickly stands out across all chapters is their inter-disciplinary
approach.5 Many entries, for example, carefully investigate the economic and cultural
consequences of historical events and test influential conjectures put forward by
political scientists and sociologists. For example, Nunn (2008) quantifies the legacy
of Africa’s slave trades, testing long-established theories in political science. Going
over the papers, summarised in the chapters of this eBook series, the reader learns
a lot, not only about the economics, but also about the context, the protagonists,
and the key issues at stake. This inter-disciplinary approach has been a major step
forward and must be continued (Lamoreaux 2015). Related to this, most of the recent
contributions come from scholars who cannot be identified as ‘economic historians’,
since their contributions span several fields (e.g., Daron Acemoglu, Andrei Shleifer,
Luigi Zingales, Guido Tabellini, Ross Levine, and Oded Galor, to name but a few).
Second, most papers use (typically, self-collected) high-quality historical data that
are combined with contemporary proxies of economic, institutional, and financial
development. Some of the data collection and compilation efforts are remarkable, as
economists have cleaned and digitised hard-to-access historical archives: for example,
Nunn (2008) has digitised records on the hundreds of shipments of slaves out of Africa;
building on earlier work of Philip Curtin, Acemoglu et al. (2001) compiled data reflecting
settler mortality rates during the colonial time, using newspaper articles from the 19th
century; Voth and Voitalander (2012) digitised data on Jewish pogroms in German lands
during the Black Death; Cage and Rueda (2016) and Valencia (2016) geo-located the
Catholic and Protestant missions in Africa and Latin America; and Acemoglu et al.
(2014) constructed a dataset tracing all paramount chiefs installed by the British during
their indirect rule of Sierra Leone. Using a plethora of original sources and meticulous
efforts, Easterly and Levine (2016) have unearthed data on the share of Europeans,
during the colonial times, for more than 100 contemporary countries, in order to assess
their initial presence and long-lasting effects. And many papers are based on digitised
historical and anthropological maps, portraying, for example, the spatial distribution
of African ethnicities at the time of colonisation (Nunn 2008, Nunn and Wantchekon
5 This is an important step forward, because, as Mancur Olson famously argued it is hard conducting interdisciplinary
research without losing discipline.
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2011, Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2016), or of Native American tribes (Dippel
2013). Many use data from anthropologists (e.g., George Peter Murdock’s mapping
of ethnicities and codification of key economic, cultural, and institutional traits), as
well as geo-referenced high-resolution data on geography (e.g., soil quality, terrain
ruggedness, suitability of land for particular crops, among others). Some works employ
data produced by population geneticists and evolutionary biologists (Spolaore and
Wacziarg 2014 and Ashraf and Galor 2016). In addition, some of the papers summarised
in this eBook series have compiled novel data for the most recent period. La Porta et
al. (1997, 1998) have gone over the corporate and bankruptcy laws of many countries
to construct quantitative measures capturing the strength of minority shareholders’ and
creditors’ rights. Going over the historical record regarding the independence period
for each African country, Wantchekon and Ponce (2016) have classified independence
movements into rural and urban based.
Third, the works in this eBook series share an important feature: they are ambitious.
Employing state-of-the-art econometric techniques and intuitive theoretical constructs,
they aim to understand the consequences of events, such as the role of colonial
strategies in Brazil (Naritomi et al. 2012), the impact of the Holocaust (Acemoglu
et al. 2011), the artificial drawing of those colonial borders in Africa that survived
independence (Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2016), the role of Jewish immigrant
scientists in US innovation (Moser et al. 2014), the role of the steam ship in advancing
commerce and institutions (Pascali 2017), the long-lasting effect of communism on
attitudes and values (Alesina and Fuchs-Schundlen 2007), or the contemporary legacies
of city-states during Medieval times (Guiso et al. 2016). For each of these topics there
are thousands of pages of excellent work in the areas of history, political science and
sociology, along with a plethora of qualitative studies. To this corpus of excellence,
economists bring along formal theorising and sound econometric tools, complementing
and building upon the existing research. Naturally, ambition is at the same time a strength
and a shortcoming. This is because, almost by default, it is impossible to perfectly
explain and trace the legacy of history. Yet economists have been open to critique and
in many instances they have gone back to the original archival data, re-examined and
re-codified the entries, and improved upon the findings of these influential works.
Clearly, the massive amount of work in history and political science, that rightly studies
detailed aspects of these events, should and will not be ‘replaced’ by some simplified
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
xv
economic model that (by necessity) abstracts from many relevant aspects to focus on
some key channels; and the vast body of historical evidence should not be swept under
the carpet because of some interesting econometric technique. But economics does
offer a fresh new angle. Continuing and strengthening the ongoing cross-pollination
between economists and scholars in other disciplines can only prove beneficial to the
cause; that of understanding whether, how and why history matters in terms of shaping
the observed variation in outcomes today across regions.
Fourth, as the revival of the ‘new economic history’ coincided with the ‘credibility revolution in empirical economics’ (Angrist and Pischke 2010), many of the papers rely on modern state-of-the art econometric methods, such as difference-in-difference estimation, ‘matching’ methods, regression discontinuity, instrumental variables, and ‘natural experiments’. These methods – while not perfect – attempt to account for unobserved or hard-to-measure confounding factors, or to exploit some form of ‘quasi- random’ variation in the historical record. For example, in her study on the impact of British direct rule of Indian states (as compared to indirect rule via local kings), Iyer (2010) exploits experimental variation stemming from the lapse rule, applied by the British between 1848-1856; under this system the British would take under direct rule only those Indian states where the dying native ruler did not have an heir. To identify the impact of colonisation, Feyrer and Sacerdote (2009) focus on small islands and use variation in wind patterns to obtain quasi-random variation on the timing and duration of European contact. History is full of idiosyncratic events, accidents and mistakes that economists (and more recently political scientists) exploit to credibly identify relationships. For example, scholars assess the effects of (unexpected) environmental shocks, as Hornbeck and Naidu (2014) examine the impact of the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 on black out-migration and subsequent agricultural development in the US South. Likewise, Fenske and Kala (2015) link enslavement raids in Africa to temperature shocks.6 Even though historical variation entails often random elements, history is shaped by people, leaders, technology, and the environment; so the impact of historical events cannot be evaluated via formal experimental tools (such as lab
6 There is a related large literature on environmental shocks and civil conflict (see Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel 2015, for a
review).
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experiments or randomised-control trials), which are quite useful for the evaluation of various narrow policy interventions. Yet this does not invalidate their strength; quite the contrary. The studies reviewed in this eBook series exploit some unique aspect of the historical landscape or try to account as carefully as possible for confounding factors to examine the legacy of events that affect people’s views, beliefs, country institutions, and the economy.
A fifth shared principle of these works is the conscious effort of the authors to make
their findings accessible not only to specialists but also to the general public. The papers
are widely accessible and fun-to-read (even when you disagree). Some authors, most
notably Acemoglu and Robinson (2012) and Mokyr (2016) have written important
books for the general public that build on this recent research agenda. And almost all
authors have written non-technical summaries and Op-Eds. We hope that this eBook
series will contribute to that ongoing effort.
Below we illustrate broadly the patterns of persistence over long periods of time. We
then briefly go over the original works summarised in the 33 chapters of the three
volumes of this eBook series.
2 Long-Term Persistence
2.1 The Evidence
Economic development appears quite persistent.7 Figure 1a provides a visualisation of
the correlation of the logarithm of GDP per capita in 2014 and the respective statistic in
1960. The regression yields a close-to-unity elasticity (0.925), implying that countries
that were 10% percent richer than other nations in the 1960s are (on average), today,
9.25% more developed. And one can explain half of the variation in contemporary
performance with that of 1960 – the first year of (relatively) high-quality data from
7 Clearly there is noise in the GDP numbers, especially when one goes back to the pre-1960 period. If measurement error
takes the classical form (i.e., is unrelated to country’s output), then the correlations will be attenuated, indicating lower
(than the true) persistence.
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
xvii
the Penn World Table (the elasticity and in-sample fit are similar if one uses Angus
Maddison’s data). Clearly during the past 6 decades, there have been success stories of
rapid structural transformation and industrialisation, most notably in East Asian (Japan,
South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore) and Southern Europe. There are also episodes of
decline, such as those of Haiti, Venezuela, and of many African countries. Yet, as Figure
1a reveals, such episodes are the exception rather than the rule; output per capita is quite
persistent. And, if anything, persistence is stronger, if one examines output in levels
rather than in per capita terms.
Even if one examines the link between current GDP per capita (p.c.) and pre-WWI
output p.c., the correlation remains quite high. Using data from Angus Maddison, Figure
1b illustrates the correlation of log GDP p.c. in 2008 and in 1913; the elasticity is 0.90
and the in-sample fit is considerable, with an R-squared of around 0.50. While there are
some evident success cases (the East Asian countries) and some failure cases (Africa,
Nepal, North Korea, and Argentina), most countries are close to the regression line.
And, as Figure 1c illustrates, the pattern is similar when we associate contemporary log
GDP p.c. (in 2008) with GDP p.c. before the first wave of globalisation and during the
Second Industrial Revolution (in 1870). The elasticity is almost 1 and log GDP in 1870
again explains half of the variability in contemporary GDP p.c. (R-squared continues to
be around 0.50). The correlation falls only when we go back to the 1820s, when most
countries were still in the pre-industrial phase and per capita income differences were
negligible compared to today’s large differences, even then the correlation exceeds 0.35
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Figure 1a.
BDI
BEN
BFA
BWA
CAF
CIV CMR
COD
COG
COM
CPV
DZA EGY
ETH
GAB
GHA
GIN GMB
GNB
GNQ
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MAR
MDG MLI
MOZ
MRT
MUS
MWI
NAM
NER
NGA
RWA
SEN
SYC
TCD
TGO
TUN
TZA UGA
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
AUT BEL
CHE
CYP
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FINFRA GBR
GRC
IRL ISL
ITA
LUX
MLT
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NOR
PRT ROU
SWE
TUR
BGD
CHN
HKG
IDN
IND
IRN
ISR
JOR
JPNKOR
LKA
MYS
NPL
PAK
PHL
SGP
SYR
THA
TWN
ARG
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL ECUPER
PRY
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BRB
CAN
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4
6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 log GDP per person in 1960
Africa Europe Asia South America North America Oceania 95% CI fitted values
REGRESSION FIT: log(GDPcap2014) = 1.8537 + 0.9242*log(GDPcap1960) + e R-squared = 0.50 Source: PWT
Figure 1b
DZA EGY
GHA
MAR
TUN
AFRICA
ALB
AUT BEL CHE DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN FRA
GBR
GRC
HUN
IRL ITA
NLD NOR
POL
PRT
ROU
SWE
TUR YUGCHN
HKG
IDN
IND
IRN
IRQ
JOR
JPNKOR
LBN LKA
MMR
MYS
NPL
PHL
PRK
SGP
SYR THA
TWN
VNM
ASIA
ARG
BRA
CHL
COL
ECU PER
URYVEN
LATINAM
CAN
CUBJAM
MEX
USA
CARIBB
AUS
NZL
7 8
9 10
11 lo
g G
D P
pe r p
er so
n in
2 00
8
6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 log GDP per person in 1913
Africa Europe Asia South America North America Oceania 95% CI fitted values
REGRESSION FIT: log(GDPcap2008) = 2.4735 + 0.9063*log(GDPcap1913) + e R-squared = 0.51 Source: Maddison
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
xix
Figure 1c
DZA EGY
GHA
MAR
TUN ZAF
AFRICA
ALB
AUT BEL
BGR
CHE DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN FRA
GBR
GRC
HUN
IRL ITA
NLD NOR
POL
PRT
ROU
SWE
TUR YUGCHN
HKG
IDN
IND
IRN
IRQ
JOR
JPNKOR
LBN LKA
MMR
MYS
NPL
PHL
PRK
SGP
SYR THA
TWN
VNM
ASIA
ARG
BRA
CHL
COL
ECU PER
URYVEN
LATINAM
CAN
CUBJAM
MEX
USA
CARIBB
AUS
NZL
7 8
9 10
11 lo
g G
D P
pe r p
er so
n in
2 00
8
6 6.5 7 7.5 8 log GDP per person in 1870
Africa Europe Asia South America North America Oceania 95% CI fitted values
REGRESSION FIT: log(GDPcap2008) = 1.8967 + 1.0542*log(GDPcap1870) + e R-squared = 0.50 Source: Maddison
The patterns in Figures 1a-1c summarise (in a crude way) a large body of research
revealing considerable persistence in income, output, and urbanisation, during at least
the post-colonial period. There seems to be a ‘structural break’ only when one goes
back to the Columbian exchange and the early stages of colonisation, a pattern that
Acemoglu et al. (2002) have eloquently coined ‘reversal of fortune’8. While obtaining
reliable data on income and output for the pre-colonial times becomes tricky and there
are natural questions on data quality, many works reveal persistence, even when one
takes a very long-run perspective (Comin et al. 2010, and Ashraf and Galor 2013).
Perhaps more importantly, there is persistence on income per capita and population
density, even when one looks across regions within the same countries. For example,
Maloney and Valencia (2015) report strong correlations between pre-colonial and
contemporary population densities across regions in 18 countries in North, Central
and Latin America (population density is the appropriate metric for development in
Malthusian pre-Industrial societies). For 12 (7) countries the correlation exceeds 0.5
(0.75). Similarly, Broda and Weinstein (2002) report high correlations on population
8 Chanda, Cook, and Putterman (2014) show that when one conducts the analysis at the population (rather than the
territorial) level, then persistence increases.
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The Long Economic and Political Shadow of History-
Volume I. A Global View
densities across Japanese regions over a four-century period. Maloney and Valencia
(2015) also uncover strong positive correlations between contemporary regional (log)
income and (log) pre-colonial population density. Likewise, Tabellini (2010) finds
sizable persistence between contemporary regional income across eight European
countries and historical proxies of development.
The evidence on persistence hints that there are deep-rooted, historical factors shaping
development, at least partly. This finding is, at first-glance, puzzling, as there have been
watershed events in the past couple of centuries, including colonisation, two world wars,
numerous regional conflicts, revolutionary regime changes, the Industrial Revolution,
the tremendous rise in globalisation. During the past two centuries the world population
experienced an unprecedented increase in standards of living, as incomes rose, poverty
fell (especially since the 1990s), fertility rates declined, and life expectancy and health
improved. Yet the gains have been highly asymmetric, and, if one takes a medium to
long-run perspective, there is evident divergence. This is revealed in Figures 2a-2b
where, using the historical GDP series of Maddison, we plot output per capita since
1870 for continents and some countries.
Figure 2a
6 7
8 9
10 lo
g G
D P
p er
p er
so n
18 70
18 80
18 90
19 00
19 10
19 20
19 30
19 40
19 50
19 60
19 70
19 80
19 90
20 00
year
Western Offshoots Western Europe Latin America
Asia Africa
Source: Maddison
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
xxi
Figure 2b
6 7
8 9
10 lo
g G
D P
p er
p er
so n
18 70
18 80
18 90
19 00
19 10
19 20
19 30
19 40
19 50
19 60
19 70
19 80
19 90
20 00
year
United States United Kingdom Spain
Brazil China South Africa
India Russia Ghana
Source: Maddison
Understanding persistence appears crucial, therefore, as a combined reading of Figures
1a-1c with Figures 2a-b suggests that countries/regions with a small-to-modest head
start managed to gain the most, both from the technological innovations of the 19th and
20th centuries and from the global spur of commerce.
2.2. Explanations
The literature has bundled the potential explanations of persistence and divergence into
four broad (and quite often interrelated) categories (see Acemoglu and Robinson 2012):
i. those related to historical institutions, such as colonial extractive rules, pre-
colonial political legacies and enslavement;
ii. those stressing the role of cultural traits, related to religion, trust, family ties,
beliefs and norms;
iii. those related to geography-ecology, such as the impact of floods, temperature
shocks, terrain ruggedness and isolation, soil variability, etc.;
iv. others that emphasise historical accidents, such as the artificial drawing of colonial
borders in Africa.
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Volume I. A Global View
The chapters of this eBook series summarise works that explain contemporary
economic development (as well as political development and attitudes) via different
mechanisms, some geographic, some related to cultural traits, some stressing the
legacies of institutional features, and some emphasising the role of accidental events.
We view these contributions as complementary and, as many of the chapters will reveal,
culture and institutions are interlinked and quite often share geographic origins (see
Alesina and Giuliano 2016, Ashraf and Galor 2016).
Volume 1 of the eBook series starts with chapters reviewing works on the spatial
distribution of economic activity across the globe and its main correlates. Next, it
includes chapters summarising works which explore watershed events that have global
repercussions. The chapters in Volume 2 summarise research on the deep origins of
African development as well as works on the legacy of colonial practices in India,
China, and Australia. Volume 3’s chapters summarise studies on historical legacies in
Latin and North America and then surveys works on the shadow of history in Europe.
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
xxiii
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Inequality, and Paths of Development among New World Economies, Economia, 3(1)
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About the authors
Stelios Michalopoulos is an Associate Professor of Economics at Brown University, a
Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and a Research Affiliate of the CEPR. A native
of Argos, Greece, Stelios holds a B.A. from the Athens University of Economics and
Business and a Ph.D. in Economics from Brown University. After completing his
doctorate in 2008, he joined the Department of Economics at Tufts University as an
Assistant Professor. In 2010-2011 he was the Deutsche Bank Member at the Institute
for Advanced Study at Princeton.
His primary research interests intersect with political economy, growth and development,
and the economics of culture. He has published in leading peer-reviewed economic
journals including the American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Political
Economy and the Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Elias Papaioannou is Professor of Economics at the London Business School (London,
United Kingdom). He is also a research fellow of the CEPR (Centre for Economic
Policy Research) and the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research).
He holds an LL.B. from the law school of the National and Kapodistrian University
of Athens, Greece, a Master›s in Public Policy and Administration (MPA) with a
concentration in international economics from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in
economics from the London Business School. After the completion of his doctorate
in 2005 he worked for two years at the Financial Research Division of the European
Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany. From 2007 till 2012 he served as Assistant
Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College (NH, USA), while during the 2010-2011
and 2011-2012 academic years he was a Visiting Assistant Professor at the Economics
Department of Harvard University (MA, USA).
His research interests cover the areas of international finance, political economy,
applied econometrics, macro aspects of regulation, law and finance, and growth
and development. He has published in many leading peer-refereed journals, such
Series introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
xxxi
as Econometrica, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Journal of Political Economy,
the American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, the Economic Journal, the Review
of Economics and Statistics, the Journal of Development Economics, the Journal of the
European Economic Association, the Journal of International Economics, and more.
His work has also appeared in numerous edited book volumes.
His research has been recognized with the inaugural 2013 European Investment Bank
Young Economist Award, 2005 Young Economist Award by the European Economic
Association and the 2008 Austin Robinson memorial prize by the Royal Economic
Association. Elias consultants for international organisations, investment banks, hedge
funds, and institutional investors on macroeconomic developments in the EU and
Greece.
1
1 Introduction: A global view
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou Brown University and CEPR; London Business School and CEPR1
Broadly speaking, the chapters of Volume I discuss works with a global viewpoint.
In Chapter 1, the editors (Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou) provide an
overview of the chapters of this volume, that discuss works with a global viewpoint.
In Chapter 2, Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil
summarise their recent work on the role of geography, agglomeration, and history of the
spatial distribution of development, as depicted by satellite images of light density at
night. This chapter sets the stage for the eBook, as it quantifies the relative importance
of these features of population density and development. The authors use a plethora
of fine, georeferenced, data on geographic endowments (temperature, precipitation,
elevation, land suitability for agriculture, length of growing period, prevalence
of malaria, ruggedness), biome-vegetation zones, and access to water transport.
Henderson et al. (2016) then perform a decomposition of global spatial development
into geographic features, trade and agglomeration-related factors, and history (captured
as a first-approximation by country fixed effects). Their analysis shows that geography
is neither destiny (as Napoleon famously argued) nor bunk (as Henry Ford put it).
Geography does matter, but it explains less than half of the variability in luminosity;
history is important for explaining at least a third of the overall variability.
1 We would like to express our gratitude to all the authors who have graciously contributed to this e-book. A special thanks
to Charles Wyplosz and Richard Baldwin for pushing us to undertake this project to collect non-technical summaries for
some of the major contributions revealing the legacy of important historical events. Due to space and other constraints
some important works are not covered by this e-book. We would like also to thank Sophie Roughton, Simran Bola, and
Tessa Ogden from CEPR for helping us.
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2
In Chapter 3, Quamrul Ashraf and Oded Galor summarise their (and others’) work
on how the Neolithic Revolution and the pre-historic movements of populations ‘out
of Africa’ influences both pre-industrial and contemporary comparative development
(Ashraf and Galor 2011, 2013). Their fascinating chapter connects insights from
evolutionary biology, genetics, cultural anthropology, and political science with Unified
Growth Theory. It also discusses the origins of genetic and cultural diversity and their
consequences for long-run development.
In Chapter 4, Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg present empirical evidence
showing that genetic distance and human relatedness have considerable statistical power
in explaining both the diffusion of technology/development and the dissemination of
democratic institutions (Spolaore and Wacziarg 2009, 2014). They also show how
genetic and linguistic barriers explain the spread of the fertility transition across
European regions during and after the Industrial Revolution. Their work highlights the
challenges that societies and policymakers face; they have to overcome history-shaped
barriers that slow down the spread of pro-growth technologies, institutions, and beliefs.
The results, however, do not establish historical (or genetic/cultural) determinism;
while the legacies are considerable, the empirical analysis shows that such barriers have
diminished in the recent globalisation era, as people from different cultural, genetic,
geographical, and institutional backgrounds mix, trade, marry, and befriend.
In Chapter 5, James Fenske and Namrata Kala provide an overview of ‘Environmental
Economic History’. In this chapter, which is complementary to our introduction, the
authors summarise recent works that assess the impact of ‘the interaction between human
culture and the environment’ with contemporary outcomes. In particular, the authors
cover two strands of the literature. They go over empirical studies that aim to isolate the
impact of particular geographic endowments on institutions, culture, and policies. In
addition, they review studies assessing the long-term impact of environmental shocks
on various development outcomes, such as the impact of droughts on historical conflict
(Fenske and Kala 2015), the Great Mississippi Flood (Hornbeck and Naidu 2014), or
the Dust Bowl (Hornbeck 2012).
In Chapter 6, Joel Mokyr summarises some of the key ideas of his latest work, which
try to understand the forces behind the origins of modern growth and the Industrial
Revolution. Drawing on his latest book (Mokyr 2016), he discusses the interactive role
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Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
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played in Europe’s history by political fragmentation and the emergence of knowledge-
based science during the Enlightenment culture. This work stresses interactions that
could explain the lasting impact of various historical features, in this case political
fragmentation – which is linked to Europe’s heterogeneous geography (Diamond 1997).
Political competition appeared to become crucial when attitudes towards scientific
knowledge changed somewhat and when new technology (the printing press) enabled
its spread.
Chapters 7, 8, 9 and 10 discuss the impact of colonisation on former European colonies
around the world (Volumes II and III include chapters summarising various aspects of
colonisation on specific regions and countries).
In Chapter 7, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson summarise their papers (some
with Simon Johnson) on the role of colonial institutions in determining contemporary
economic and political/institutional development (Acemoglu et al. 2001, 2002, 2005,
and see Acemoglu and Robinson 2012, for a general-audience exposition). The authors’
starting point is that colonial strategies were quite heterogeneous; on the one hand, in
places where Europeans faced favourable living conditions and low opposition from
local population and where population density was low, they migrated en masse and
established colonies with inclusive pro-growth institutions. Examples include the
United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. On the other hand, in places with
unfavourable ecological conditions (yellow fever, malaria) and effective opposition
from the locals, Europeans set up small communities and applied extractive strategies
aimed at minerals and agricultural goods. Africa stands out as the typical example.
Latin America falls somewhere in the middle of the spectrum. Due to institutional
persistence, colonial institutions endured after independence, contributing to a massive
divergence in well-being.
In Chapter 8, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer and Robert
Vishny summarise their contributions on the long-lasting legacies of legal origins (e.g.,
La Porta et al. 1997, 1998). The authors have brought into economics and finance
insights from legal theory, stressing the vast differences of the British common-law
system with the French and German civil-law systems. La Porta et al. show how the
different legal systems that Europeans established led to considerable heterogeneity on
commercial and civil laws as well as the regulatory environment of product, labour, and
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capital markets. In a series of papers (some co-authored with Simeon Djankov) they have
constructed quantitative measures reflecting the quality of the legal system in protecting
minority shareholders and creditors, and the efficiency of courts, red tape, and regulations;
using the new data they have shown that common-law countries offer superior protection
to investors, have more efficient and less formalistic courts, and regulate markets lightly.
In contrast, countries that were French (and to a lesser extent German) colonies offer
much weaker protection to shareholders and creditors, have slow courts with formalistic
civil and administrative procedures, high levels of red tape, and tight regulations. La Porta
et al. further argue that these important differences in corporate law and regulation have
shaped financial patterns and depth (size of capital markets, stock market turnover, private
credit), which in turn affects economic development (see Levine 2005).
In Chapter 9, Bill Easterly and Ross Levine summarise their recent work on the impact
of colonisation in a large sample of 129 countries. Their analysis proceeds in two steps.
First, the authors go over their newly constructed dataset of European presence at the time
of colonisation. In many colonies (such as Togo, Kenya, Cambodia, Iraq, and Pakistan),
the share of Europeans was minimal, consisting of less than 1% of the population, while
in other colonies (Argentina, Australia, Costa Rica, Canada, and the United States),
the share of Europeans, even at the very early stage exceeded 10%. In support of the
Acemoglu et al. (2002) argument, they find that Europeans did not settle in large numbers
in areas with dense indigenous populations. Second, they show that the share of Europeans
correlates significantly with contemporary development. Importantly, they uncover that
the percentage of Europeans in the population during colonisation is a more important
correlate of output per capita than the share of the Europeans today, illustrating that the
colonial experience was influential (see also Hall and Jones 1999).
In Chapter 10, Jim Feyrer and Bruce Sacerdote summarise their work. Colonial powers’
decisions to establish colonies and protectorates was at least partly driven by local health
conditions; opposition from indigenous population; and, perhaps, other region-specific
factors that may, in turn, affect contemporary development directly, or via other-than-
colonisation means. Feyrer and Sacerdote (2009) try to push on causation, a daunting
task. They examine the impact of colonial tenure on contemporary development, focusing
on small islands in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans and applying an ingenious
identification approach. To isolate the one-way effect of colonisation and account for
Introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
5
other relevant factors, they exploit exogenous variation on oceanic winds and currents;
sailing ships had very limited ability to sail against oceanic winds and thus followed
currents that facilitated maritime travel. The authors then apply an econometric approach
that relates modern income to the component of colonial tenure explained by islands’
effective accessibility by sailing ships. Their two-stage analysis shows that longer
colonial rule has a statistically strong and quantitatively non-negligible positive effect on
contemporary GDP per capita. Thus, while this study focuses on small islands, crucially it
advances the key issue of causation, by providing fresh evidence on a causal link between
the length of colonisation and contemporary development.
In Chapter 11, Luigi Pascali discusses his recent work, examining the impact of the steam
ship on the surge of shipping commerce during the first era of globalisation (1870-1913).
Understanding growth during this period of industrialisation is key, as global GDP more
than tripled during this half-century; and the increase in income was highly asymmetric.
Pascali’s (2017) insight is that the introduction of the steam ship differentially affected
trade across the world. For some regions the effect was large, since unfavourable winds
and currents were impeding trade, while for other regions the benefit was smaller because
of winds already favourable to sail. His empirical analysis yields four interesting results.
First, he documents a swift adoption of the new technology. Second, he estimates large
shipping costs trade elasticities, suggesting that the introduction of the steam ship was
a major driver of globalisation and of the spur in trade. Third, he shows a small overall
effect of steam-ship-induced trade on average incomes across the world, that is, however,
quite heterogeneous. Fourth, Pascali presents evidence that the spur of trade, fostered by
the introduction of the steam ship, had large positive effects on development in countries
with good institutions. In contrast, trade’s impact on development in autocratic countries
with low levels of executive constraints was negative. This result is quite important, as
it emphasises the interactive effects of historical events; countries with more ‘inclusive’
institutions managed to benefit from a new revolutionary technology (steam ship) in a
period of massive economic transformation (the Second Industrial Revolution in an era of
rapid globalisation) sowing the seeds for the ensuing dramatic divergence.
7
2 On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history
Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil London School of Economics and Political Science; Amazon.com; Tufts University; Brown University
Why do people, in the world as a whole or within a given country, live where they do?
Why are some places so densely populated and some so empty? In daily life, we take
this variation in density as a matter of course, but in many ways it can be quite puzzling.
Economists point to three factors to explain how population is distributed. The first
is that there are differences in geographical characteristics, often referred to as ‘first
nature’, that make some places better disposed for habitation or producing output than
others. This explains why mountainous regions, deserts, tundra and so on tend to have
low population density, and why much of the world’s population is situated in places
where it is relatively easy to produce food.
The second factor is agglomeration. Because of economies of scale and gains from
trade, we humans often find it efficient to gather in small areas. Of course, many
industries, most notably food production, don’t benefit from such concentration, and are
instead spread out in accordance with the availability of first nature resources. Further,
there are limits to the benefits of agglomeration: because of congestion and transport
costs, the urban population is spread among many cities, which are, in turn, spatially
dispersed.
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The final factor affecting the distribution of population is history. Cities, once
established, have a very strong tendency to stay put. This persistence results from many
factors, often collectively described as ‘second nature’ (Cronon 1992). Among these
factors are long-lived capital, political power, and the fact that once agglomeration has
started in a particular place, it will be a natural focus for future equilibria. As discussed
by Bleakley and Lin (2012) and Michaels and Rauch (forthcoming), this persistence
can be important, even when the reasons that a city has been established in a particular
place are no longer important.
The complete story of how nature, agglomeration, and history have interacted to give
the world the distribution of population that we see today is far too complex to be
captured in a single study. In ‘The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity:
Nature, History, and the Role of Trade ’ (Henderson et al. 2017), our goals are less
ambitious. We ask how economic and technological development have changed the
ways in which first-nature characteristics impact population distribution. While these
characteristics themselves haven’t changed too much over history (so far), the way in
which they affect settlement has. Simple examples of such changes are the impacts
of air conditioning, irrigation, and the discovery of new uses for particular mineral
resources. We focus on the two natural characteristics where we think that changes
associated with economic and technological change have been most important. These
are, first, the suitability of a region for growing food, and second, the suitability of a
region for engaging in national and international trade. Over the last several centuries,
the importance of fertile land as a determinant of population density has declined,
both because agricultural productivity has increased – so that a smaller fraction of the
labour force works on farms – and because transport costs have fallen – so that people
don’t need to live near where their food is produced. Lower transport costs, along with
increased opportunities for gains from trade, have similarly raised the value of locations
(such as those on coasts, navigable rivers, or natural harbours) that are accessible to
trade, either within or between countries.
Our goal is to show how these changes are reflected in the distribution of population
today. In pursuing this goal, the effect of persistence, as described above, turns out
to be very important. We are interested in how technology in historical times affected
agglomeration at those times, but the data on population density that we use (described below)
2. On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history
Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil
9
is only available for the world today. However, if we know when (in a rough sense)
agglomeration began in a country, then we can use the similarity of today’s distribution
to the historical distribution to learn about how the technology available at that time
affected agglomeration.
First-nature data and the distribution of population today
Before looking at the role of history, we start by simply examining the explanatory
power of first-nature characteristics for population distribution in the world today,
which is arguably an interesting issue in its own right.
Our starting point, in measuring the dispersion of population, is lights observed at
night by weather satellites. Specifically, we use the 2010 Global Radiance Calibrated
Nighttime Lights dataset (Ziskin et al. 2010). In previous work (Henderson et al.
2012), we showed that change over time in night-lights data is a useful proxy for the
growth of GDP in countries with poor national income accounts data. The lights data
are distributed as a grid of pixels of dimension 0.5 arc-minute resolution (1/120 of a
degree of longitude/latitude). We aggregate into a grid of 1/4-degree squares, with each
square covering approximately 770 square kilometres at the equator. At this resolution
our sample is roughly 240,000 grid squares (excluding squares made up solely of
water). Figure 1 shows this grid cell data for the world as a whole.
Figure 1. Demeaned lights
High : 10.32
Low : -7.48
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The first-nature variables we use in predicting lights come in three groups. The first,
labelled ‘agriculture’, are factors that seem clearly related to producing food. These
comprise six continuous variables (temperature, precipitation, length of growing period,
land suitability for agriculture, elevation, and latitude) as well as a set of 14 indicators
for biomes (mutually exclusive regions, encoding the dominant natural vegetation
expected in an area, based on research by biologists.) The second group of variables,
labelled ‘trade’, focus on access to water transport. These are dummy variables for
whether the centre of a grid cell is within 25 kilometres of a coast, navigable river,
major lake, or natural harbour, as well as a continuous measure of distance to the
coast. Finally, we define a ‘base’ group of two variables – ruggedness and malaria
ecology – which seemed to us to be roughly equally relevant for agriculture and trade.
Figure 2a. Demeaned predicted lights without fixed effects
High : 10.32
Low : -7.48
Figure 2a shows the fitted values from regressing lights in a grid square on our three
sets of first-nature variables. Together, these variables explain 47% of the variation
in lights and, looking at the figure, there is clearly a strong resemblance between the
fitted values and the world as we know it. However, there are two potential problems
associated with jumping from this result to the conclusion that nature really does
explain such a large fraction of variability in population density. The first is that
variation in visible light is not solely determined by population density. The other
big determinant is income per capita. It is for this reason that, in Figure 1, Japan is so
much brighter than Bangladesh, even though the latter is more densely populated. The
second problem is that a statistical correlation between geographical characteristics and
2. On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history
Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil
11
either income or population density might not indicate a true effect of geography, but
rather be proxying for the effect of something correlated with geography. For example,
if European colonisers implanted good institutions in places where the climate was
amenable to their settlement, and bad institutions in places where it was not (the story
of Acemoglu et al. 2001), then a European-type climate will predict higher income,
even though it may not directly affect income at all.
Figure 2b. Demeaned predicted lights with fixed effects
High : 10.32
Low : -7.48
Both of these problems are addressed by looking at variation in lights and natural
characteristics within countries. Formally, this amounts to including country-fixed
effects in our analysis, which is done in all the work reported below. Figure 2b is
an example of this: we estimate the effect of first-nature characteristics, using only
within-country variation in lights, and then form fitted values for the world as a whole,
omitting the estimated country fixed effects. As the figure shows, knowing only how
geography affects population within countries, one would still do a pretty good job of
predicting the variation in population density the world over. The agriculture and trade
variables account for slightly more than one-third of within-country variation.
The changing importance of first-nature characteristics
We now turn to the question of how the importance of natural characteristics, as a
determinant of the distribution of population, has changed over time. As mentioned
above, a key to our approach is comparing countries where agglomeration took place early,
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thus reflecting the weights put on natural characteristics further back in time, with those
that agglomerated later. Unfortunately, we don’t have a good, consistent measure of
exactly when agglomeration took place, so instead we use data from 1950, on both
urbanisation as well as two proxies: education and GDP per capita. Our assumption is
that countries with higher values of these measures, as of that point in time, also started
their urbanisation process earlier. We use several statistical approaches to parse the
data. One is to estimate coefficients on our ‘agriculture’ and ‘trade’ variables separately
for early and late agglomerators, while simultaneously letting the data determine where
the cutoff is between these two groups of countries (essentially, looping through all
possible division points to find the one that gives the best fit). Applying this method,
using urbanisation in 1950, for example, we find that the cutoff between early and late
agglomerators is an urbanisation rate of 36.2%, which puts 70 out of 189 countries
(57.2% of our grid squares) in the ‘early’ category. Table 1 then shows the R-squareds
from running regressions of visible lights on either the set of base variables (including
country fixed effects), the base plus agriculture variables, or the base plus trade
variables. The improvement in fit that comes from adding agricultural variables is
much larger in the early than in the late agglomerating countries; correspondingly, the
improvement in fit that comes from adding trade variables is much larger in the late
agglomerating countries than in the early agglomerators. We find a similar pattern when
we use education or GDP per capita in 1950 to split the data, and we find it also when
we look solely within the New World or the Old World. We also find similar results
when we look at other specifications, for example linearly interacting urbanisation or
its proxies with agriculture and trade variables.
Table 1. R-squareds
RHS variables Early Agglomerators Late Agglomerators
Base 0.350 0.359
Agriculture + Base 0.613 0.508
Trade + Base 0.385 0.447
These results tell what, at first, seems to be a puzzling story: late agglomerators are
generally poorer countries, and on average are more dependent on agriculture than early
agglomerators. Yet it is in the latter group of countries that agricultural variables do a
better job of predicting the location of population and economic activity. Our explanation
2. On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history
Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil
13
of this apparent puzzle looks to the timing of when agricultural productivity rose and
similarly when trade costs fell. In countries where agglomeration got going early,
the rise in agricultural productivity preceded the decline in transport costs. That
is, people began moving from farms to cities at a time when it was still relatively
expensive to move food from place to place. As a result, cities were located close
to areas conducive to food production. By contrast, in late agglomerators, the rise
in agricultural productivity that allowed urbanisation came later, relative to declining
transport costs, and so the latter was relatively more influential as a determinant of
location. Figure 3 shows some of the data that supports this story: it plots the urban
share of the population in groups of early and late agglomerators, as well as a global
index of transport costs. The figure makes clear that transport costs were far lower
when late agglomerators reached any particular level of urbanisation than when the
same level was reached by early agglomerators.
Figure 3.
.4 .6
.8 1
1. 2
1. 4
G lo
ba l r
ea l f
re ig
ht in
de x*
10 20
30 40
50 60
U rb
an s
ha re
( %
)
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 year
Urban share: early developers Urban share: late developers
Global real freight index*
*excludes periods including world war years
Sources: Bairoch (1988); Mohammed and Williamson (2004)
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An interesting implication of this analysis is that countries that are only urbanising
now have population distributions that are more appropriate to modern technology
than do those that urbanised earlier. For example, even though, in Europe, coastal
areas already have particularly high population densities, our estimates imply that, had
Europe developed later, coastal density would be even greater. Similarly, had Africa
developed earlier, interior areas such as the Ethiopian highlands and the Congo basin
would have higher relative population densities than those actually observed today.
Another set of implications, drawn from the story in our paper, involves spatial inequality
within countries. We expect that early agglomerators, with their activity focused around
agriculturally suitable land, and a distribution of population inherited from a period
when transport costs were high, should have a higher degree of spatial equality in lights
overall than late agglomerators, with their heightened coastal focus and low transport
costs. To assess this prediction, we calculate a spatial Gini coefficient for light across
grid cells for each country. Table 2 shows the results from regressing the lights Gini
on urbanisation in 1950. The coefficient is negative, as predicted. Further, controlling
for the Gini of lights predicted using our geographic variables, as well as measures of
country size and population (and thus population density), does not affect the result.
Table 2. Gini Coefficient of Lights
Urbanisation in 1950 -0.00400 (0.00067)
-0.00425 (0.00063)
-0.00285 (0.00049)
Gini Coefficient of Predicted Lights 0.382
(0.073) 0.0933
(0.0658)
ln(land area) 0.0864
(0.0074)
ln(population in 2010) -0.0500 (0.0081)
Constant 0.851
(0.026) 0.702
(0.037) 0.212
(0.063)
Observations 131 131 131
R-squared 0.167 0.277 0.597
2. On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history
Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil
15
Conclusion
The saying that “geography is destiny” is often attributed to Napoleon. Meanwhile, the
American industrialist Henry Ford really did say that “history is bunk.” In our research,
we have shown that, when it comes to thinking about how population is distributed
within countries, there is reason to doubt both of these statements. Geography clearly
matters quite a bit, when it comes to where people live. But the aspects of geography
that matter change over time. Further, there is enormous persistence in location, so that
the ways in which geography mattered in the past – that is, history – are still reflected
in the spatial distribution of population today.
To many readers, sitting in cities founded hundreds of years ago, sipping coffee grown
thousands of kilometres away, none of this will come as a great surprise. However,
understanding the dynamic interplay of geography, technology, economic growth, and
history – a project in which our paper is only a small step – is of great import in
thinking about many issues facing the world today. Not only are the impacts of different
geographic characteristics continuing to change with economic and technological
development, but, in decades to come, geographic characteristics themselves will be
changing at an ever increasing rate. At the same time, in much of the developing world,
urbanisation is taking place at a rapid pace. The locational decisions made today will
have impacts for centuries to come.
References
Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial
Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”, The American
Economic Review 91.5 1369-1401.
Bairoch, Paul (1988), Cities and Economic Development, Chicago: University of
Chicago Press.
Bleakley, Hoyt, and Jeffrey Lin (2012), “Portage and path dependence”, The Quarterly
Journal of Economics 127.2: 587.
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
16
Cronon, William (1992), Nature’s metropolis: Chicago and the Great West, WW
Norton & Company.
Henderson, J. Vernon, Adam Storeygard, and David N. Weil (2012), “Measuring
Economic Growth from Outer Space”, American Economic Review 102(2): 994- 1028
Henderson J. Vernon, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, David Weil (2017), The Global
Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade,
Working Paper, Brown University
Michaels, Guy, and Ferdinand Rauch, “Resetting the urban network: 117-2012”, The
Economic Journal, forthcoming.
Mohammed, Saif I. Shah, and Jeffrey G. Williamson (2004), “Freight rates and
productivity gains in British tramp shipping 1869–1950”, Explorations in Economic
History 41.2: 172-203.
Ziskin, Daniel, Kimberly Baugh, Feng Chi Hsu, Tilottama Ghosh, Chris Elvidge (2010),
“Methods Used for the 2006 Radiance Lights”, Proceedings of the 30th Asia Pacific
Advanced Network Meeting 131 -142.
About the authors
Vernon Henderson is the Eastman Professor of Political Economy and Professor of
Economics and Urban Studies at Brown University, and a Research Associate of the
National Bureau of Economic Research. He has been at Brown since 1974. His Ph.D. is
from the University of Chicago and his B.A. from the University of British Columbia.
He has conducted research on aspects of urbanisation and local government finance
and regulation in the USA, Brazil, Canada, India, China, Korea and Indonesia. Besides
the work on night lights, his current research examines urban land auctions conducted
by the state in China, exclusionary policies of localities in Brazil resisting in-migration
of low skill people, and the aid effort and recovery from the tsunami in 200 coastal
villages in Aceh, Indonesia.
2. On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history
Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil
17
Tim Squires is an economist working for Amazon.com. He received his PhD from
Brown University in 2015, with a concentration in using spatial data to answer questions
in Development and Growth. Since then he has brought those skills to Amazon.com,
tackling issues related to the Device business. Since starting at Amazon he has worked
with Software developers and Business partners to build scalable economics engines to
improve the efficiency of the business both online and offline.
Adam Storeygard is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Tufts University,
with research interests in development and urban economics, and particularly in
urbanisation, transportation, and the economic geography of sub-Saharan Africa. Much
of his work uses geographic data, including satellite data. His work has appeared in
journals including the American Economic Review, the Review of Economic Studies,
and Nature. He received a PhD from Brown University in 2012.
David N. Weil is the James and Merryl Tisch Professor of Economics at Brown
University and a Research Associate of both the National Bureau of Economic Research
and Brown’s Population Studies Training Center. He received his B.A. in History from
Brown in 1982 and his Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard in 1990. He has written
widely on various aspects of economic growth including cross-country empirics,
accumulation of human and physical capital, appropriate technology, fertility, habit
formation, and health, as well as on such non-growth topics as demographic economics,
Social Security, monetary policy, portfolio allocation, and inequality. He is the author
of an undergraduate textbook on economic growth and co-editor of the four volume
African Successes (University of Chicago Press, 2016).
19
3 Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf and Oded Galor Williams College; Brown University, NBER, and CEPR
Introduction
The transition from an epoch of stagnation to an era of sustained economic growth has
marked one of the most extraordinary transformations in human history. While living
standards in the world economy stagnated during the millennia preceding the Industrial
Revolution, income per capita has undergone a remarkable twelve-fold increase over
the past two centuries, altering the distribution of education, health, and wealth across
the globe.
The unprecedented rise in the standard of living, however, has not been universally
shared among individuals and societies. In particular, variation in the timing of the
take-off from stagnation to growth has led to a vast divergence in income per capita.
Inequality across societies, which had been modest until the 19th century, has since
widened considerably, with the ratio of income per capita between the richest and the
poorest regions of the world being magnified from a moderate 3:1 ratio in 1820 to a
staggering 15:1 ratio by 2010.
Unified Growth Theory
The differential timing of the take-off from Malthusian stagnation to sustained
economic growth and the corresponding divergence in income per capita across the
globe have been the focus of intensive research during the past two decades. The
inconsistency of the predominant theories of economic growth with some of the most
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fundamental characteristics of the growth process, as well as their limited ability to
shed light on the origins of the vast global disparity in contemporary living standards,
have spurred the development of a unified theory of economic growth that captures the
growth process in its entirety. The advancement of Unified Growth Theory has been
fuelled by the conviction that the understanding of the global variation in economic
development would be fragile and incomplete unless the prevailing theory of economic
growth reflects the principal driving forces behind the entire process of development,
capturing the central role that historical factors have played in bringing about the current
worldwide disparities in living standards.
Unified Growth Theory provides a fundamental framework for analysing the evolution
of individuals, societies, and economies over the entire course of human history
(Galor and Weil 2000, Galor and Moav 2002, Galor 2005, Galor and Mountford 2008,
Galor 2011).1 The theory unveils the principal economic forces that have generated the
remarkable transition from stagnation to growth and underlines their significance for
understanding the contemporary growth process of both developed and less-developed
economies. Moreover, it sheds light on the roles played by historical and prehistorical
factors in the divergence of income per capita across regions of the world over the course
of the past two centuries. The theory captures, in a single analytical framework, the main
characteristics of the process of development: (i) the epoch of Malthusian stagnation
that characterised most of human history; (ii) the escape from the Malthusian trap and
the associated spike in the growth rates of income per capita and population; (iii) the
emergence of human capital formation in the process of development; (iv) the trigger
for the onset of the demographic transition; (v) the emergence of the contemporary
era of sustained economic growth; and (vi) the divergence in income per capita across
countries.
Unified Growth Theory suggests that the transition from stagnation to growth has
been an inevitable by-product of the process of development. It argues that the
inherent Malthusian interaction between the rate of technological progress, on the
one hand, and the size and composition of the population, on the other, accelerated
1 See also Hansen and Prescott (2002) and Lagerlöf (2006).
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
21
the pace of technological progress and, ultimately, raised the importance of education
in coping with a rapidly changing technological environment. The associated rise in the
demand for education, in turn, brought about significant reductions in fertility rates.
It enabled economies to divert a larger share of the fruits of factor accumulation and
technological progress to the enhancement of human capital formation and income per
capita, paving the way for the emergence of sustained economic growth. Furthermore,
heterogeneity in country-specific geographical, institutional, and human characteristics
that have affected the intensity of the pivotal interaction between the rate of technological
progress, on the one hand, and the size and composition of the population, on the other,
has generated variation in the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth and,
thus, contributed to the contemporary gap in income per capita across countries (Galor
2010).
The biogeographical origins of comparative development
Theories of comparative development highlight a variety of proximate and ultimate
determinants of the vast inequities in living standards across the globe. The relative
importance of geographical, cultural, and institutional factors; human capital formation;
ethnic, linguistic, and religious fractionalisation; colonialism; legal origins; and
globalisation has been at the centre of a debate regarding the origins of the differential
timing of transitions from stagnation to growth and the remarkable transformation of the
world income distribution in the last two centuries (e.g., Gallup et al. 1999 Acemoglu et al. 2001, 2005, Alesina et al. 2003, Glaeser et al. 2004, La Porta et al. 2008, Ashraf and Galor 2013a, Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2014). Although both theoretical and
empirical research have typically focused on the effects of such factors in giving rise to
and sustaining the divergence in income per capita since the early modern era, attention
has recently been drawn towards deeply rooted factors that have been argued to affect
the path of comparative economic development over the entire arc of human history.
Specifically, this line of research suggests that factors determined tens of thousands of
years ago have had a significant effect on the course of economic development from the
dawn of mankind to the contemporary era.
These explorations of the long shadow of (pre)history have centred around three
fundamental lines of inquiry – namely, (i) the interaction between human evolution
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and the process of economic development; (ii) the impact of the differential timing
of the Neolithic Revolution on comparative development across societies; and (iii)
the influence of heterogeneity in the genetic composition of populations on their
comparative economic performance – emphasising the roles played by the Neolithic
Revolution and the prehistoric exodus of anatomically modern humans from Africa, in generating variation in the composition of human traits across populations around the
globe.2
Human evolution
The impact of the economic environment on the evolution of human traits and the
contribution of this evolutionary process to long-run economic development have been
the subject of an intensive research programme over the past two decades. The central
hypothesis in this research avenue, originating with Galor and Moav (2002), suggests
that, in the era following the Neolithic Revolution, Malthusian pressures not only acted
as a key determinant of the size of a population but conceivably shaped, via the forces
of natural selection, its composition as well. Lineages of individuals whose traits were
complementary to the economic environment may have generated higher levels of
income and, thus, a larger number of surviving offspring. Consequently, the gradual
increase over time in the representation of these traits in the population may have
contributed to the process of development, the pace of the transition from stagnation to
growth, and comparative economic development across societies.
In line with the evidence regarding human evolutionary adaptations since the onset of
the Neolithic Revolution, this research additionally suggests that, due to the egalitarian
nature of hunter-gatherer societies, the forces of evolutionary selection within a society
were largely muted prior to the adoption of farming and the emergence of the nuclear
family. The transition to sedentary agriculture and the emergence of property rights,
however, may have subsequently reinforced the association between parental income and
reproductive success and, thus, amplified the pace of these evolutionary processes (Galor
and Moav 2002).
2 The following discussion of the literature on human evolution, genetic diversity, and economic development is borrowed
from Ashraf and Galor (forthcoming).
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
23
Subjecting hypothetical evolutionary processes to the scrutiny of evolutionary growth
models, this body of research has identified several traits that may have been subjected
to positive selection during the Malthusian epoch, due to their conduciveness to
human capital formation and economic development. In particular, these studies have
highlighted the selection of innate preferences for the quality rather than quantity of
offspring (Galor and Moav 2002), resistance to infectious diseases (Galor and Moav
2007), human body size (Lagerlöf 2007), predisposition towards entrepreneurial
spirit (Galor and Michalopoulos 2012), lactase persistence (Cook 2014), conspicuous
consumption (Collins et al. 2015), and time preference (Galor and Özak 2016).3
Specifically, Galor and Moav (2002) have advanced the hypothesis that, during the
Malthusian epoch, natural selection may have brought about a gradual increase in the
prevalence of traits associated with predispositions towards the quality rather than
quantity of offspring. The positive influence of this evolutionary process on investment
in human capital may have stimulated technological progress and contributed to
the reinforcing interaction between human capital investments and technological
progress, which ultimately triggered the demographic transition and brought about a
state of sustained economic growth. The quantitative analysis of Collins et al. (2014) corroborates this hypothesis.
An empirical test of the hypothesis advanced by Galor and Moav (2002) has
recently been conducted by Galor and Klemp (2014). Using an extensive data set of
genealogical records for nearly half-a-million individuals in Quebec between the 16th
and 18th centuries, their study suggests that moderate fecundity, and thus predisposition
towards investment in child quality, was conducive to long-run reproductive success,
reflecting the negative influence of higher fecundity on the survivability, marital age, and
education of each offspring. The finding lends credence to the hypothesis that, during
the Malthusian epoch, natural selection favoured individuals with lower fecundity
and greater predispositions towards child quality, thus contributing to human capital
formation, the demographic transition, and the transition from stagnation to growth.
3 It may be noted that the interaction between human evolution and the process of development, as emphasised by this literature,
is applicable to either cultural or genetic propagation mechanisms for the intergenerational transmission of individual traits
(Bisin and Verdier 2011, Bowles and Gintis 2011, Robson and Samuelson, 2011, Doepke and Zilibotti 2014).
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
24
The evolutionary origins of worldwide variations in the resistance to infectious diseases,
as well as their implications for comparative development, have been examined by
Galor and Moav (2007). This research hypothesises and provides empirical evidence
that the socioeconomic transformations associated with the Neolithic Revolution
triggered an evolutionary process, which, in turn, applied positive selective pressures
on the resistance to infectious diseases. Consequently, heterogeneity across societies
in their length of exposure to this evolutionary process, as captured by the differential
timing of their transition to sedentary agriculture, may have significantly shaped the
contemporary global distribution of human longevity. In a related paper, Cook (2015)
further links this evolutionary process to the degree of intrapopulation genetic diversity
in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) system.
Galor and Michalopoulos (2012) have explored the coevolution of entrepreneurial
spirit and the process of long-run economic development. Their analysis suggests that
Darwinian selection of entrepreneurial traits m a y h a v e played a significant role in
the process of economic development, influencing the dynamics of inequality both
within and across societies. Specifically, they argue that entrepreneurial spirit evolved
non-monotonically over the course of human history. In early stages of development,
risk-tolerant growth-promoting traits may have possessed an evolutionary advantage,
and their increased representation in the population over time accelerated the pace of
technological progress and, thereby, the process of economic development. In mature
stages of development, however, risk-averse traits may have gained an evolutionary
advantage, diminishing the growth potential of advanced economies and contributing
to convergence in economic growth across countries.
The coevolution of subsistence consumption, the ability to engage in efficient and
diversified food procurement strategies, and the process of development has also been
examined by this line of research. Specifically, Lagerlöf (2007) has argued that resource
depletion, associated with technological progress and rising population density during
the Malthusian epoch, may have triggered a shift in reproductive advantage from large
to small body sizes, thereby generating an endogenous reversal of the long-run time
trend in human body mass. In addition, Cook (2014) has provided empirical evidence, documenting that heterogeneity across regions in the contemporary prevalence of the
lactase persistence trait is positively associated with differences in the level of precolonial
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
25
economic development – a pattern that presumably reflects the reproductive success
and the productivity-enhancing benefits associated with this post-Neolithic adaptation
that extends the ability to digest milk into adulthood.4 Furthermore, Collins et al. (2015) have argued that female mating preferences may have increased the reproductive success
of males predisposed to engage in conspicuous consumption in order to credibly signal
their quality. However, because conspicuous consumption is funded through increased participation in the labour force, the increase over time in the prevalence of signalling
males in the population may have given rise to an increase in economic activity, which
then contributed to long-run economic growth.
Finally, Galor and Özak (2016) have explored the evolutionary origins of the contemporary
distribution of time preference across regions. They advance the hypothesis and provide
empirical evidence that geographical variation in the natural return to agricultural
investment may have had a persistent effect on the distribution of time preference across
societies. In particular, exploiting a natural experiment associated with the expansion of
suitable crops for cultivation in the course of the Columbian Exchange, these authors
find that preindustrial agro-climatic characteristics, conducive to higher returns from
agricultural investment, may have triggered selection and learning processes that have
had a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation.
In contrast to the literature on the interaction between human evolution and the process
of development, which emphasises the ‘direct effects’ of the composition of human
traits in society on economic outcomes, a complementary line of research, originating
with Spolaore and Wacziarg (2009), has exploited human evolutionary data in order
to empirically examine the ‘barrier effects’ of the extent of cultural and biological
divergence between societies on their ability to adopt technological and institutional
innovations from the global frontier and, thus, on the diffusion of economic
development. Notably, in these contributions (e.g., Spolaore and Wacziarg 2009, 2016),
the extent of divergence between societies is proxied by their pairwise genetic distance
in selectively neutral genetic markers – a measure that captures the time elapsed since
the two societies diverged from a common ancestral population and, therefore, the time
4 The long-run codetermination of human physiology and economic development is explored further by Dalgaard and
Strulik (2015, forthcoming).
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Volume I. A global view
26
over which intersocietal cultural and biological differences could have accumulated,
due to the forces of cultural and genetic drift, differential selection, and divergent gene-
culture coevolution. In line with the ‘barrier effects’ arising from cultural and biological
divergence, this area of inquiry has documented the reduced-form contribution of
genetic distance between societies to differences in income per capita, technology
adoption, and institutional quality, amongst other outcomes.
The neolithic revolution
The influence of biogeographical endowments in giving rise to variation in the timing of
the Neolithic Revolution across regions has been at the centre of an influential hypothesis
of comparative economic development (Diamond 1997, 2002). Accordingly, the
emergence and subsequent diffusion of sedentary agricultural practices were primarily
driven by geographical conditions such as climate, continental size and orientation, as
well as the availability of wild plant and animal species amenable to domestication.
In particular, favourable biogeographical endowments, associated with a larger
variety of domesticable species of plants and animals and with factors facilitating the
spatial diffusion of agricultural practices across similar climatological environments,
contributed to the emergence of agriculture during the Neolithic Revolution, giving
some societies the early advantage of operating a superior production technology
and generating resource surpluses. They permitted the establishment of a non-food-
producing class, whose members were crucial for the development of written language
and science and for the formation of cities, technology-based military powers, and nation
states. The early dominance of these societies thereafter persisted throughout history,
being further sustained by geopolitical and historical processes such as colonisation and
globalisation.
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
27
Figure 1. The Neolithic Revolution and historical versus contemporary comparative
development
Panel a
AGO
BDI
BEN
BWA
CIV
COG
DZA
EGY
ETH
GAB
GHA
GIN
MB
GNB VRALB KWT
G
CMRKEN
SLEBR
LBY
LSO
MAR
MDG MOZ
RTBFACZEM
MWI
NAM
NER
NGA
RWA
SDNUGA LSEN
SOM
SWZ
MLIT
TUN
TZA
ZAF
ZMB ZWE
AUT
BEL
BLR
CHE
DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRCAZE VENBGHR
IRL
LTU
LVA
MDA
NIC CAFMKD
NLD
POL
PR
SVN ROM
ASWE
UKR
UG
AFG
GO TKMBIHSLVY
ARE
ARM
CHN
ZAR VNMGEO
BOL IND
ISR
HUNIRNPRYIRQ
JOR
JPN
KAZ
TCD KGZKHM
KOR
LBN
NOR LK
MMR
MNG
MYS
NPL
PAK
PHL
PRK
ATSURQ
AU RUS OMNS
SYR
LAO THA
TJK
TUR
UZB
YEM
AUS
PNG
ARG
BLZ
BRA IDNCAN
ITACHL
CRIBGD COL
CUB DOM
ECUGTM
GUY
THND
HTI
MEX
NZL PAN
PER
URY
USA
-3 -2
-1 0
1 2
-1 -.5 0 .5 1
Africa Europe Asia Oceania Americas
Lo g
po pu
la tio
n de
ns ity
in 1
50 0
(C on
tr ol
v ar
ia bl
es h
el d
at z
er o)
(Control variables held at zero)
Log years since transition
Panel b
AGO BEN
BFA
BWA
CAF
CIV
BRACOG
RDZA
EGY
ETH
GAB
GHA
GIN
GMB
GNB
KEN
LBR
LBY
LSO
MA
MDG MLI
MOZ
MRT
MWI
NAM
NER
WAIDNR
SDN HRV INDSEN
SLE
SOM
SWZ
TCD
BLZTGO
TUN
TZA
ZMB
ZWE
ALB
AUTTHA BEL
BG
BIH
BLR
CHE
NZLPANCZE
DE
DNK
ESP
EST FIN
GRC
IRL
UITA
LTU
LVA
MDA
MKD
RRNLD
NOR
POL
PRT
IRQ ROM
RUS
ARG SVN
UKR
AFG
ARE
ARMAZE
BGD
CHN GEO
IRN
ISR
RJOR
JPN
KGZ
KHM
KOR
KWT
LAO
LBN
LKA
MNG
ZAF MYS
NPL
MNTKMO
GUYPAK
PHL
PRK
QAT
SAU
SYR
TJK
FRA TUR
UZB VNM
YEM
USUGAKAZA
PNG
SLVBOL
GBCMCAN
HUNCHL
BDICOL
CRI
NGACUB
DOM
MEX ECU
SWE GTM
HND HTI
NIC
PER PRY
URY
USA
VEN
-2 -1
0 1
2
-1 -.5 0 .5
Africa Europe Asia Oceania Americas
(C on
tr ol
v ar
ia bl
es h
el d
at z
er o)
Lo g
in co
m e
pe r
ca pi
ta in
2 00
0
(Control variables held at zero)
Log years since transition (ancestry adjusted)
Sources: Ashraf and Galor (2011, 2013a)
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Volume I. A global view
28
As illustrated in panel (a) of Figure 1, heterogeneity across societies in the timing of the
transition to sedentary agriculture is indeed instrumental for the understanding of their
precolonial comparative development, as captured by population density in the year
1500 (Ashraf and Galor 2011; Spolaore and Wacziarg 2013). Nevertheless, evidence
suggests that the initial dominance of some societies, due to their earlier transition to
agriculture, has dissipated over the past five hundred years, and, as depicted in panel (b)
of the figure, the timing of the Neolithic Revolution has no significant association with
contemporary income per capita (Ashraf and Galor, 2013a).5
In particular, the finding of a persistent impact of the (ancestry adjusted or unadjusted)
timing of the Neolithic Revolution on contemporary cross-country comparative
development (e.g., Olsson and Hibbs 2005, Putterman 2008, Putterman and Weil 2010)
does not appear to hold within continents – i.e., when one accounts for unobserved time-
invariant continent fixed effects. Thus, while the differential timing of the transition to
agriculture could still potentially explain some of the cross-continental differences in
contemporary living standards, through long-run persistence, this explanatory power
cannot be separately identified from the confounding influences of correlated but
unobserved differences across continents in time-invariant geographical, cultural, and
institutional factors. In contrast, the explanatory power of the timing of the Neolithic
Revolution for precolonial comparative development holds not only across continents
but within continents as well.
Genetic diversity
The importance of interpersonal genetic diversity within populations has been the
focus of a recent but vibrant research programme in the academic literature concerning
the deep roots of comparative development, which originates with Ashraf and Galor
(2013a). This research has advanced and empirically substantiated the hypothesis that
levels of genetic diversity in indigenous settlements across the globe were adversely
affected by their migratory distances from the cradle of mankind in East Africa and,
5 The depicted relationship between ancestry-adjusted years since the transition to agriculture and income per capita in
2000 corresponds to the regression presented in column 2 of Table 6 from Ashraf and Galor (2013a).
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
29
thereby, generated a persistent hump-shaped influence on development outcomes,
reflecting the trade-off between the beneficial and detrimental effects of diversity on
productivity at the societal level.
Diversity can positively influence economic development by widening a society’s
spectrum of individual skills, abilities, and cognitive approaches, which, in turn, fosters
innovative activity, stimulates specialisation, and allows societies to adapt more rapidly
to changing technological environments. Conversely, by also widening a society’s
spectrum of individual values, beliefs, preferences, and predispositions in social
interactions, diversity can reduce the extent of social cohesion, generate inefficiencies
in the provision of public goods, and hamper economic coordination, thus conferring
a negative influence on economic performance. Importantly, if the social benefits
and costs of diversity are diminishing at the margin, diversity is expected to impart a
hump-shaped influence on aggregate productivity. Thus, the economic performance of
societies characterised by intermediate levels of diversity is expected to be higher than
that associated with excessively homogenous or heterogeneous societies.
Figure 2. Migratory distance from East Africa and genetic diversity
.5 5
.6 .6
5 .7
.7 5
E xp
ec te
d he
te ro
zy go
si ty
0 5 10 15 20 25 Migratory distance from East Africa (in thousand km)
Africa Middle East Europe Asia Oceania Americas
Source: Ashraf and Galor (2013a)
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Volume I. A global view
30
The extent of ethnic fractionalisation within national populations has been recognised
as an important adverse correlate of development (Easterly and Levine 1997, Alesina
et al. 2003, Alesina and La Ferrara 2005). This body of research has shown that, across countries, fractionalisation tends to be negatively correlated with income per capita,
economic growth, institutional quality, efficiency in provision of public goods, and
the extent of social cohesion. The standard measure of ethnic diversity at the national
level – namely, the index of ethnic fractionalisation – reflects the probability that two
randomly selected individuals from the population will belong to different ethnic
groups. This and other similar measures of ethnic diversity, however, predominantly
capture only one dimension of diversity in a society – the proportional representation
of the different ethnic groups. Importantly, unlike genetic diversity at the national level,
these measures do not incorporate the extent of interpersonal diversity within each
ethnic group in the population, and, with some exceptions, they also generally ignore
the degree of differentiation (or the ‘distance’) between constituent groups.
The hump-shaped influence of diversity on development
Exploiting data on genetic diversity (expected heterozygosity) from the Human
Genome Diversity Project (HGDP), Ashraf and Galor (2013a) empirically examine
their prediction regarding the trade-off between the beneficial and detrimental effects
of the degree of interpersonal diversity on productivity at the societal level. Consistent
with their hypothesis, they find that genetic diversity, as determined predominantly
by a serial founder effect associated with the prehistoric ‘out of Africa’ migration
process, does indeed confer a significant hump-shaped influence on income per capita,
explaining 16% of the worldwide cross-country variation in the standard of living in
the year 2000.
Although Ashraf and Galor’s main focus is on contemporary comparative development,
they confirm the hump-shaped influence of diversity on economic development in both
historical and contemporary time periods, showing that diversity within societies has
shaped their comparative development since well before the advent of the Industrial
Revolution. Demonstrating that the hump-shaped relationship between diversity and
development can be observed in historical periods is important for two reasons. First,
since the mechanisms through which diversity can affect productivity at the societal level
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
31
are conceptually independent of the stage of economic development (i.e., agricultural
versus industrial), the hump-shaped influence of diversity is expected to hold, not only
across modern economies, but across preindustrial societies as well. Second, prior to the discovery of the New World and the great intercontinental migrations of the colonial era,
the geographical locations of historical societies largely reflected the locations to which
their ancestral populations had arrived at the end of their prehistoric, ‘out of Africa’, migration from the cradle of mankind, and as such, the diversity of a precolonial society
was overwhelmingly determined by an ancient serial founder effect originating in East
Africa, as depicted in Figure 2.6 The great intercontinental migrations associated with
the Columbian Exchange, however, drastically altered the ethnic composition of many
regional populations, particularly in the New World, thereby introducing additional
complexities to the measurement of diversity for contemporary national populations,
as elaborated further below.
In the preindustrial era, comparative development was characterised by Malthusian
forces – namely, gains in productivity at the societal level were channelled primarily
towards population growth rather than growth in income per capita. During this era,
more developed societies were, therefore, characterised by higher population density,
rather than a higher standard of living (Ashraf and Galor 2011). Thus, Ashraf and Galor’s
historical analysis of the influence of genetic diversity on comparative development
focuses on explaining the variation across preindustrial societies in population density
in the year 1500.
6 This relationship reflects the fact that the prehistoric demic expansion of humans from the cradle of mankind to the rest
of the globe was characterised bong series of discrete steps, where, in each iteration, a subpopulation left its parental
colony to establish a new colony farther away, carrying with them only a subset of the genetic diversity of their parental
population.
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
32
Figure 3. Genetic diversity and historical comparative development
Panel a
AGO
BDI
URB
BWA
AFTZAC
CIV
CMR
ZMB COG RCDZA
EGY
ETH
GH
LBR DNKGIN
GMB
KEN
ARMWZZAF LSO
SYRMDG
MOZ MRT
MWI
GEENMK NAM
LBYNER
JORZWE NGA
RWA
SDN
ENS POLVNMARSLESOM
GABS TCD IRQBGGRTGO
KWTTUN
UGA
ROMIRNALB
AUT
BE
CHE
CZE DEU
SPGNB NOR
E
RUSFIN
FRA
GB
AHRV
BIH HUN
RIRL
TKMMLIBLR LTU
LV
MDA
OD
NLD
PRT
SAU BFAQATS
SWE
UKR
A EST
AFG
ARE
AZE
GDNPLB
CHN
IDN
INDISR
JPN
KAZ
KGZ
KHM
PRKKOR
LAO
LKA
MMR
MNG
MYS
ITA OMN
LPAK
PHL
THA
LBNT
TJKUZB
VNM
YEM
AUS
NZL
PNG
BLZ
BOL
BRA
CAN
CHL
COL
CUB
CRIDOM
ECU
GTM
GUY
HND
HTI
MEX
NIC
PAN
PER
PRY
SLV
SUR
ARG URY
USA
VEN
12 13
14 15
16 17
.2 .25 .3 .35 .4 .45
Africa Europe Asia Oceania Americas
Lo g
po pu
la tio
n de
ns ity
in 1
50 0
(C on
tr ol
v ar
ia bl
es h
el d
at z
er o)
(Predicted) Genetic homogeneity
Panel b
CZED
EGY
MAR
TUN
ALB
BEL
BGR
BLR
DEUCHEDNK
ESP
TURUSLVAEST
FR FIN
GBR
ITA
HUN AUTL
ROMGRCMDA
NLD
SWE NOR
ZAPOL
PRT
HRV SVN
UKR
LKABGD
CHN
IDN
IND
MKDIRN
ISR
JPN
AZUZBK
KOR MYS
APAK
PHL
SAU
SYR
THA
TUR
LAO VNM
AUS
NZL
ARG
BOL
BRA
CAN
PRYCHL
COL
CCRI
DOM
ECU
GUY
HTI
MEX
HNDNI PAN
PER
BLZ GTM
SLV
URY
USA
VEN
27 28
29 30
31
.25 .3 .35 .4 .45
Africa Europe Asia Oceania Americas
Lo g
ur ba
ni sa
tio n
ra te
in 1
50 0
(C on
tr ol
v ar
ia bl
es h
el d
at z
er o)
(Predicted) Genetic homogeneity
Source: Ashraf and Galor (2013a)
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
33
To overcome sample limitations and potential concerns about reverse causality
associated with the use of observed genetic diversity, the authors exploit the strong
explanatory power of migratory distance from East Africa for the worldwide variation
in observed genetic diversity across ethnic groups in the HGDP sample, in order to
generate a measure of predicted genetic diversity for all societies around the world,
based on their respective geographical locations in the year 1500. As illustrated in
panel (a) of Figure 3, employing the measure of predicted genetic diversity, the authors
document a hump-shaped influence of diversity on population density in the year 1500,
in a sample of observations spanning the entire globe. Notably, the depicted relationship
accounts for potentially confounding effects due to heterogeneity across societies in
the timing of the Neolithic Revolution and in various geographical factors relevant for
their historical development, as well as confounding effects arising from unobserved
cross-continental differences. This finding is robust to a large number of sensitivity
checks, including ‘placebo tests’, which show that a similar hump-shaped pattern does
not exist when employing either aerial distance from East Africa or migratory distances
from other geographical locations as the explanatory variable of interest. In addition,
as depicted in panel (b) of Figure 3, the finding continues to hold when the rate of
urbanisation in the year 1500 is employed as an alternative measure of comparative
development across preindustrial societies.
Ashraf and Galor’s analysis of contemporary comparative development exploits data
on the ethnic compositions of modern national populations, which reflect the great
intercontinental and interregional migrations over the past half-millennium. Specifically,
it incorporates this information to construct a country-level measure of contemporary
genetic diversity that takes into account not only the genetic diversity of each ethnic
group in a national population but also the pairwise genetic distances amongst these
constituent ethnic groups7. Applying their measure of contemporary genetic diversity,
the authors find a significant hump-shaped influence of diversity on income per capita
in the year 2000. This relationship, depicted in panel (a) of Figure 4, accounts for
potentially confounding effects arising from cross-country heterogeneity in the
7 Additional details regarding the construction of this measure of contemporary genetic diversity are provided in the
online appendix of Ashraf and Galor (2013a)
The long economic and political shadow of history -
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34
timing of the Neolithic Revolution, various geographical, cultural, and institutional
correlates of contemporary economic development, and unobserved continent-specific
characteristics. The relationship is additionally robust to controlling for population
density in the year 1500, indicating that the hump-shaped influence of diversity does not
merely reflect long-run persistence in economic development. Moreover, it continues
to hold when limiting the sample to countries in which the overwhelming majority
of the population has remained geographically native since the precolonial era, thus
alleviating concerns regarding the endogeneity of international population flows over
the past five hundred years.
The main finding from Ashraf and Galor’s analysis of contemporary comparative
development suggests that (i) increasing the diversity of the most homogenous country
in their sample (Bolivia) by one percentage point would raise its income per capita
in the year 2000 by 41%; (ii) decreasing the diversity of the most diverse country in
their sample (Ethiopia) by one percentage point would raise its income per capita by
21%; (iii) a one percentage point change in genetic diversity (in either direction), at the
‘optimum’ level of 0.721 (that most closely resembles the diversity level of the United
States), would lower income per capita by 1.9%; (iv) increasing the diversity of Bolivia
to the level prevalent in the United States would increase Bolivia’s per-capita income by
a factor of 5.4, closing the income gap between the two countries from a ratio of 12:1
to 2.2:1; and (v) decreasing the diversity of Ethiopia to the level prevalent in the United
States would increase Ethiopia’s per-capita income by a factor of 1.7 and, thus, close
the income gap between the two countries from a ratio of 47:1 to 27:1. Further, the
level of diversity most conducive to economic development is found to be higher in the
contemporary period, relative to the preindustrial era, consistent with the underlying
premise that the beneficial effects of diversity on productivity are expected to be more
pronounced in an increasingly demanding technological environment.8
8 Confronting the possibility that income per capita in the modern world could be noisily measured, especially for
less-developed economies, Ashraf et al. (2014) document the hump-shaped influence of diversity on contemporary
comparative development as captured by the cross-country variation in per-capita adjusted nighttime luminosity,
measured by satellites from outer space. This lends further credence to the hypothesis that diversity may account for a
significant portion of the worldwide variation in contemporary living standards.
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
35
Figure 4. Genetic diversity and contemporary comparative development
Panel a
NAMHTI BEN
AROMBFA
TUNCIV
CMR
COG
EG
ETH
GAB
GHA
GIN
FINGMB
GNB
KEN
LSO
MAR
SYR MDG
DZA ITAPOL MLI
M
YMWI
NER
AGONG
RWA
UGA SDN
SEN
SLE
SOM
SWZ
CAFTCD
BDITZA
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
DNKDOMBEL
BGR
CHEOZ TGO GRCCYP
AUTD
NLDFRA
UN SAUBWAH
ARG IRL
NOR
RTGUYP
EUSMRTWE
GDBRAB
CHN
IDN
IND
IRN
IRQ
ISR
JOR
MYS KOR
LKA
OMN
GBRPAK
JPNPHL
THA
TUR
NZL
PNG
BOL
CAN
CHL
COL
CRI
ECU
GTM
HND
JAM
MEX
NIC
PAN
PER
PRY
SLV
TTO
ESP AUS URY
USA
VEN
13 .5
14 14
.5 15
15 .5
16
.2 .25 .3 .35 .4
Africa Europe Asia Oceania Americas
Lo g
in co
m e
pe r
ca pi
ta in
2 00
0 (C
on tr
ol v
ar ia
bl es
h el
d at
z er
o)
(Predicted) Ancestry−adjusted genetic homogeneity
Panel b
DZA
CT
SDN
CMR
TZA
KENCMTZ TCD
TZA RMC RMC
KEN CMRCMR
KEN CIV
KEN
NEK NEK NEK
TCDKENETHCMR DCT DCT KEN KEN
ZAOGNGA TZA
CMR
TZA KEN KEN
SDN CMR
KEN CMR
ZAF
ATZATZA
CMR
NGA
CMR
TZA
SEN
TZA CMRKEN TZA KENTZA
TZATCDCMRZARGHATCDTCDTZCMRCMRCMCMCMR NGA
NGA CMR
TCD NGA
SSD
ZAF
TZA
ZAF
ENZARK
KENCMR
KENNGA RWARCMR GABAGO NGAC
TZAGAB MR GAB
CAF
KEN
KEN
A RR
KEN
CMR
ERIETHTCDNGA
CMR
CMRKEN NGA
SSDSSDZAR GHA
NGANAM
KEN CMR
CHN
CHN
CHN
CHN
CANCANCHN TWN
CHN
TWN
CHN
MNG
JPN
CHN
CHN
KHM
CHN CHN
CHN
CHN RUS
RUS
RUS
RUS
PSE
SYRSYR YEM
PAK
IND PAK
IND
AFG IND INDIND
PAK
IND
PAK
INDPAKIND
IND
PAK
INDIND
AKINDP
PAK
GBR
FRA
ITA
RUS
ITINDA
ITA
ESP
MEX
GTM
PAN
MEX
MEXMEX MEX
PAN
CAN
PNG
PNG
NG PNG
PNG
PER PNG
PNG
PNGP
PNG
PNG
NZL PNG
PNG
PNG
PNGPNG PNG
PNGPNG
PNG
CHNPNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
WSM
PNG
NGPNGP
PNG PNG
PNG
GNPGNP PNG
PER
RABRAB
COL
COL
BRA
COL
PERCOL
BRA
COL
COL
BRA
COL
ARG
350
364
0.561 0.768
South America North America Oceania Australia Asia Europe Africa
C on
tr ol
v ar
ia bl
es h
el d
at z
er o
Lo g
Lu m
in os
ity
Genetic Diversity
Sources: Ashraf and Galor (2013a), Ashraf et al. (2015)
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
36
More recently, Ashraf et al. (2015) have empirically examined the influence of diversity on productivity at the ethnic group level, while accounting for potentially
confounding effects, arising from observed heterogeneity in various ethnicity-specific geographical, cultural, and institutional factors, as well as unobserved heterogeneity in
country-specific characteristics. This research finds that observed genetic diversity in
a worldwide sample of 230 ethnic groups, as well as predicted genetic diversity (based
on migratory distance from East Africa) in a global sample of 1,331 ethnic groups,
confers a significant hump-shaped influence on economic prosperity, suggesting that
the variation in genetic diversity across ethnic homelands has contributed to variations
in economic development across ethnic groups and regions at the subnational level.
The significant hump-shaped influence of observed genetic diversity on group-level
productivity, as reflected by the per-capita adjusted nighttime luminosity of an ethnic
homeland, is illustrated for the sample of 230 ethnic groups in Panel (b) of Figure 4.
Finally, it has also been shown that migratory distance from the cradle of mankind
may have imparted a reduced-form hump-shaped influence on comparative economic
development (Ashraf and Galor 2013a). Although the reduced-form influence of
migratory distance from East Africa appears to operate primarily through its impact on
genetic diversity, as observed in the HGDP sample, it is plausible that migratory distance
per se has had direct effects on economic development, independent of its influence
through genetic diversity, potentially reflecting the self-selection of individuals into
migration and differential evolutionary processes that may have taken place in the
course of the prehistoric demic expansion of anatomically modern humans from Africa.
Mechanisms
The reduced-form hump-shaped influence of diversity on productivity suggests several
potential mechanisms through which diversity can influence economic performance,
reflecting various elements of the trade-off between the social costs and benefits of
diversity. Ashraf and Galor (2013a) furnish cross-country empirical evidence for two
such mechanisms. Specifically, they show that contemporary genetic diversity imparts
(i) a positive influence on innovative activity (as reflected by the average annual
number of scientific articles per capita in the 1981–2000 time-horizon); and (ii) a
negative influence on the degree of social cohesion (as reflected by the prevalence of
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
37
interpersonal trust in survey data on individual values, collected over the 1981–2008 time
period). These relationships between diversity, on the one hand, and either innovative
activity or the prevalence of trust, on the other, are depicted in panels (a) and (b) of
Figure 5.
Further evidence on some of the mechanisms through which diversity can affect
economic prosperity is provided by several other papers in this research programme.
Bearing in mind that ethnic diversity has been shown to be associated with various
dimensions of economic underperformance at the national level (as discussed earlier),
the evidence uncovered by Ashraf and Galor (2013b) suggests that prehistorically
determined genetic diversity could be an underlying cause of different manifestations of
the ethnolinguistic fragmentation of national populations. Specifically, their hypothesis
suggests that following the ‘out of Africa’ migration, the initial endowment of genetic
diversity in a given location may have catalysed the formation of distinct groups at
that location, through a process of endogenous group selection, reflecting the trade-
off associated with the scale and internal cohesion of each group. Although a larger
group can benefit from economies of scale, it is more likely to be less cohesive due to
costly coordination. Thus, in light of the added contribution of genetic diversity to the
lack of cohesiveness of a group, a larger initial endowment of genetic diversity in a
given location may have given rise to a larger number of groups. Over time, due to the
forces of ‘cultural drift’ and ‘biased transmission’ of cultural markers, which serve to
distinguish ‘insiders’ from ‘outsiders’ of a group (e.g., language dialects, customs and
traditions, norms of social conduct), intergroup divergence in such markers became
more pronounced, leading to the formation of distinct collective identities along ethnic
lines.
In line with this hypothesis, genetic diversity at the national level is found to impart a
strong positive influence on various alternative measures of ethnolinguistic diversity,
while accounting for the potentially confounding influences of the timing of the
Neolithic Revolution, the time elapsed since initial human settlement, colonial history,
the geographical determinants of ethnic diversity, and unobserved continent-specific
factors. Further, to address the issue of causality, the findings are shown to hold in a
sample restricted to only countries from the Old World, which were largely immune
from the potentially endogenous intercontinental migrations of the colonial era.
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
38
In the same vein, the findings are also shown to be robust to employing prehistoric
migratory distance from East Africa as a plausibly exogenous source of variation in
contemporary genetic diversity in a global sample of countries. The positive influence
of genetic diversity on the number of ethnic groups at the national level, as uncovered
by Ashraf and Galor (2013b), is illustrated in panel (c) of Figure 5.
Civil and other forms of intrastate conflicts are another mechanism though which the
genetic diversity of a national population can lead to its economic underperformance.
Exploiting cross-country variations, Arbath et al. (2015) find that genetic diversity in
the contemporary era has been a significant contributor to the emergence, prevalence,
recurrence, and severity of civil conflicts over the last half-century, conditional
on the geographical and institutional correlates of conflict, outcomes of economic
development, and unobserved continental characteristics. Importantly, because genetic
diversity captures both intergroup and intragroup differences in interpersonal traits, it
possesses explanatory power for not only interethnic conflicts but intraethnic factional
conflicts as well, unlike standard measures of ethnic diversity. This research additionally
demonstrates that genetic diversity can potentially contribute to intergroup conflicts
in society through the channels of greater ethnic fragmentation, reduced interpersonal
trust, and sharper divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive
policies.9 Panels (d) and (e) of Figure 5 respectively depict the positive influence of
genetic diversity on the frequency of civil conflicts and on heterogeneity in political
preferences at the national level.
The emergence and persistence of autocratic forms of societal governance is yet another
mechanism through which genetic diversity can give rise to contemporary economic
underperformance. Specifically, Galor and Klemp (2015) advance the hypothesis that,
although prehistorically determined genetic diversity triggered the formation, in early human societies, of institutions for mitigating the adverse influence of diversity on social cohesion, the contribution of diversity to economic inequality and class stratification
within societies may have ultimately reshaped early institutional development towards
more extractive and autocratic forms of governance.
9 Relatedly, Becker et al. (2015) provide evidence that links the ancient serial founder effect of the ‘out of Africa’
migration with contemporary heterogeneity in risk-taking individual preferences at the national level.
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
39
Figure 5. Mechanisms of the impact of genetic diversity on productivity
Panel a
BDI
BE
BWA
CAF CMRDZA
EGY
COGETH
GHA
GMB
KEN
MLI
MOZ
MRT
MWI
NER
RWA
SDN
SEN
SLE
WZLSOVENS
TGO
UGA
ZAR
NIC ZMB
ZWE
AUT
BEL
BGR
CHE
CYP
DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN
GBR
GRC
HUN
IRL
ITA
NLD
ORCOLN
POLPRT ROM
SWE
BGD
CHN
IDN
IRN
IRQ
FRA JPN
KOR
LKA
TUN NMMR
MYS
AKZAF IND
P
PHL
SYR
THA
TUR
AUS
NZL
PNG
CAN
CRI
DOM
PERGTM HND
HTI
MEX
PAN
SLV
TTO
USA
ARG
BOL
BRA
CHL
ECU
GUY
PRY URY
-. 4
-. 2
0 .2
.4
-.05 .05
Africa Europe Asia Oceania N. America S. America
A ve
ra ge
a nn
ua l s
ci en
tif ic
a rt
ic le
s pe
r ca
pi ta
, 1 98
1- 20
00 (C
on tr
ol v
ar ia
bl es
h el
d at
z er
o)
0
(Control variables held at zero)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
Panel b
BFA
DZA
EGY
ETH
GHA
MLI
NGA
RWA
YUGJORTZA
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
ALBAUT
USABEL BGR
BIH BLR
CHE
DE
DNK
ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
BRCANG
GRC RVCZEH
UHUN
IRL
ITA
LTU
LUX
LVA
MDA
MKD
NLD
NOR
POL
PRT
RUS
SVK
VNMARS
SWE
UKR
ARM
AZEBGD
CHN
EOROMG
IDN
UGA IND
IRN
IRQ
ISR
JPN
KGZ
KOR
MYS
PAK
SAU THA
TUR
VNM
AUS
NZL
GTM MEX SLV
ARG
BRA
CHL
COL
PER
URY
VEN
-. 2
-. 1
0 .1
.2 .3
-.04 -.02 .02 .04
Africa Europe Asia Oceania N. America S. America
(C on
tr ol
v ar
ia bl
es h
el d
at z
er o)
P re
va le
nc e
of in
te rp
er so
na l t
ru st
0
(Control variables held at zero)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
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Volume I. A global view
40
Panel c
BDI
FAIRNB
AFCUBC
KGZCIV
TUR CMR
DZA
EGY
ETH
GAB
GHA
GMB GNB
KEN
LBR
FRAGIN LBYLSO
MA
MDG
BWA MLI
OZ
MRT
MWI
NAM
NER
NGA
SDN
SEN
SLE
SOM
SWZ
TCD
TGO
TU
TZA
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
ALB
BEL
BGR
BIH
BLR
CHE
DEU
RDNK
SPNDE
EST
FIN
GBR
RN CZEKWTGRC
K MHRV
HUN
IRL
RWA ITA
TUZARL
LVA
SYRMKD
NNLD
NOR
AGO POL
PRT
RUS
SVN
LKASWE
UKR
YUG
ARE AR
AZE
BGD
BTN
CHN
GEO
IDN IND
IRQBENMAUTISR
ROM JO
JPN
KAZ
KHM
KOR
LAO
LBN
MRMDAM
MNG
MYS
NPL
PA
PHL
PRK
SAU
OMNTHA
TJK
COGTKM
UZB
AUS
ZLUGAN
PNG
ANAFGC CRI
DOM
GTM
VNMH
HTI
MEX
NIC
PA
SLV
USA
ARG
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL
ECU GUY
PER
PRY
URY
VEN
-1 -.
5 0
.5 1
-.05 .05
Africa Europe Asia Oceania N. America S. America
(C on
tr ol
v ar
ia bl
es h
el d
at z
er o)
Lo g
nu m
be r
of e
th ni
c gr
ou ps
0
(Control variables held at zero)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
Panel d
AGO
A BEN
BFA
CAF ACMR
ZE DZA
EGY
ERI
ETH
GBRGMB
SENURY SLELBRESGI
KEN
LBY
LSO
MDG SWE NOR
MLI
MOZMRT
MWI
NER
NGA
SDN
PN SAU
BDICR SOM
TCD
HAO MMR
GTG
ITATZA
GABFRA UG
ZAF
ZAR
GUYZMB
BGRALB
BEL
BIH
JORC
GRC
HRV
BLR NLD
L
MDA
FIN IRL
ESTLVA
MKD
DEUPOL PRT
ROM
RUS
SVNUSA HUNGNQSWZSVK
UKR
YUG
AFG NAMARM
AZE
BGD
BTN
CHN
GEO
IDN
IND
MAR IRN
IVCOG WA
IRQ
NSYRISR
JP
KAZ
KGZ
KOR
KWT
LAO LBN
GNB LKA
MNG
CHE UTNPL
OMN
PAK
PRK
TU ARELUXDNK
QATANKHMTHA
TJK
TKM
TUR UZB
NVNM
ZWETU YEM
AUS
NZL
PNG
BLZ
CAN
CRI CUB
DOM
GTM HND
HTI MEX
NIC MYSP SLV
ARGBOL BRA
CHL BWACOL
ECU
PERPRY
ENPHLV
-. 05
0 .0
5 .1
.1 5
-.1 -.05 0 .05
Africa Europe Asia Oceania N. America S. America
Lo g
an nu
al fr
eq ue
nc y
of c
iv il
co nf
lic ts
, 1 96
0- 20
08 (C
on tr
ol v
ar ia
bl es
h el
d at
z er
o)
(Control variables held at zero)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
41
Panel e
DZA
EGY
ETH
GHA
MAR
MLI
RWA
TZA
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
EO ALB
AUT
BGR
BIH
BLR CZENGACH
DEU
BEBF DNK
ESP
EST
KGZ FIN
FRA
GBR
GRC
HRV HUN
IRL
UGA ITA
LTU
LVA
MDA
MKD
NOR
POL
PRT ROM
RUS
EUKR SVK
SVN
SWE
RMLANLDA
AZE
BGD
YUGG
IDN
IND
IRN
IRQ ISR
JOR
JPN
KOR
PAK
THA
TUR
VNM
LUXAUS
NZL CAN
GTM
MEX
SLV
USA
ARG
BRA
CHL
COL
PER
URY
VEN
-2 -1
0 1
2
-.04 -.02 0 .02 .04
Africa Europe Asia Oceania N. America S. America
H et
er og
en ei
ty in
p ol
iti ca
l p re
fe re
nc es
(C on
tr ol
v ar
ia bl
es h
el d
at z
er o)
(Control variables held at zero)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
Sources: Ashraf and Galor (2013a, 2013b) Arbath et al. (2015)
Exploiting variations across precolonial ethnic homelands, the authors demonstrate that,
conditional on potentially confounding effects due to various geographical factors and
unobserved continental characteristics, genetic diversity imparts a positive influence on
the prevalence of precolonial autocratic institutions and that this relationship plausibly
reflects the dual impact of diversity on the formation of institutions and the emergence
of social stratification. Furthermore, the authors document that the spatial variation in
genetic diversity across the globe may have contributed to the cross-country variation
in contemporary degrees of autocracy, partly reflecting the persistence of institutional,
cultural, and compositional characteristics of populations over time.
Beyond the aforementioned studies, which highlight some of the mechanisms associated
with the social costs of genetic diversity, Depetris-Chauvin and Özak (2015) present
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
42
evidence in support of its social benefits.10 Motivated by the initial hypothesis that
genetic diversity can foster the division of labour in society, by widening the spectrum
of individual skills, abilities, and cognitive approaches, this research exploits variations
across precolonial ethnic homelands to empirically document that, conditional on a
wide range of geographical characteristics, prehistorically determined genetic diversity
may have conferred a positive influence on the degree of economic specialisation in
different production activities in a society, thereby fostering its proclivity to engage in
and reap the economic benefits of trade. The authors additionally show that present-
day populations residing in regions that were characterised by a higher degree of
precolonial economic specialisation tend to exhibit significantly greater occupational
heterogeneity, as well as a higher level of economic development.
Interestingly, the beneficial impact of genetic diversity on productivity has also been
documented at a much lower level of aggregation than countries or ethnic groups.
Specifically, exploiting variations across high schools in the state of Wisconsin, Cook
and Fletcher (2016) find that the heterozygosity of the student body of a high school in
1957 may have conferred a significant positive influence on the economic performance
of the school’s graduates later in life, as captured by individual net worth in 1992 and
2004, and by family income in 1974 and 1992. Importantly, because these findings
are established by exploiting variations within a single state, they are unaffected by
cross-country (and even within-country cross-state) confounders. In addition, because
the high-school student bodies in the authors’ data set were entirely comprised of
individuals of European ancestry, the results are unlikely to be afflicted by issues of
population stratification that could otherwise conflate the influence of heterozygosity
with those of ethnicity or ancestral origins on economic outcomes.
10 The beneficial effects of genetic diversity on economic development are also documented empirically by Ager and
Brückner (2016). Exploiting variations across counties in the United States in the late nineteenth-century, these authors
find that county-level populations that experienced a larger initial increase in their genetic diversity, due to the arrival of
European immigrants, subsequently also experienced higher rates of growth in both income and scientific patents per
capita during the 1870–1920 time-horizon. In another interesting study by Delis et al. (forthcoming), the authors exploit
panel variations across firms listed on the stock markets of North America and the United Kingdom to demonstrate that
adding members to a firm's board of directors from countries of origin with differing levels of genetic diversity increases
its corporate performance. The authors hypothesise that their finding reflects the productivity-enhancing benefits of
interpersonal differences in cultural, psychological, physiological, and other traits that cannot be captured by alternative
measured indices of diversity.
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
43
Policy implications
Ashraf and Galor’s analysis establishes a fundamental trade-off, associated with
the influence of genetic diversity on economic performance: diversity can stimulate
specialisation and innovative activity, but it can also diminish social cohesion. The
fact that genetic diversity has been a deep determinant of economic development,
however, does not imply that the genetic composition of a population governs its
economic destiny. The influence of diversity on productivity reflects both genetic and cultural components, implying that a society can shape the context in which the
existing diversity of its population influences socioeconomic outcomes, by enacting
policies to harness the beneficial effects of the existing level of diversity and mitigate
its potentially detrimental consequences.
The controversy over the implications of Ashraf and Galor’s findings has focused on
the assertion that intermediate levels of genetic diversity tend to be most conducive to
economic development, thereby leading uninformed critics to suggest that this work
could be used to justify the forcible movement or ‘engineering’ of populations. This
viewpoint, however, disregards the key argument that the influence of diversity on
development operates through various proximate mechanisms. Instead, the implications
for policymaking from Ashraf and Galor’s analysis are that policies should be aimed
at conditioning these intervening channels. Specifically, overly diverse societies could
focus on fostering interpersonal trust and mediating the potential for social conflict,
by encouraging civic participation, improving the quality of political institutions,
and mitigating inefficiencies and distortions in the provision of public goods. Overly
homogenous societies, on the other hand, could aim to increase diversity in skills,
occupations, and training programmes, in order to foster specialisation and innovative
activity. In both cases, the orientation of the educational system appears to be the most
promising avenue – education can help to instil the cultural values of tolerance needed
in overly diverse societies, and it can also promote cultural receptiveness to different
types of productivity-enhancing knowledge that may be lacking in overly homogenous
societies.
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Volume I. A global view
44
Concluding remarks
The rapidly expanding literature on the deep roots of comparative development has
vastly improved our understanding of the interaction of human evolution and the process
of long-run economic development, as well as the roles played by various prehistoric
biogeographical forces, in shaping contemporary global inequality. Examinations of the
coevolution of previously unexplored genetic and cultural traits along with the process
of long-run development, as well as deeper investigations of the somatic, behavioural,
cultural, and institutional mechanisms through which prehistoric biogeographical
forces have shaped contemporary comparative development, represent exciting avenues
for future research.
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Variations in Life Expectancy, Brown University Department of Economics Working Paper 2007-14.
Galor, Oded, and Andrew Mountford 2008, “Trading Population for Productivity:
Theory and Evidence”, Review of Economic Studies, 75(4): 1143–1179.
Galor, Oded, and Ömer Özak 2016, “The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference”, American Economic Review, 106(10): 3064–3103.
Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil 2000, “Population, Technology, and Growth: From
Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond”, American Economic Review, 90(4): 806–828.
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Glaeser, Edward L., Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer
2004, “Do Institutions Cause Growth?”, Journal of Economic Growth, 9(3): 271–303.
Hansen, Gary D., and Edward C. Prescott 2002, “Malthus to Solow”, American Economic Review, 92(4): 1205–1217.
Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter 2006, “The Galor–Weil Model Revisited: A Quantitative
Exercise”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 9(1): 116–142.
Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter 2007, “Long-Run Trends in Human Body Mass”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11(3): 367–387.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer 2008, The Economic
Consequences of Legal Origins, Journal of Economic Literature, 46(2): 285–332.
Michalopoulos, Stelios, and Elias Papaioannou 2014, “National Institutions and
Subnational Development in Africa”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(1): 151– 213.
Olsson, Ola, and Douglas A. Hibbs Jr. 2005, Biogeography and Long-Run Economic
Development, European Economic Review, 49(4): 909–938.
Putterman, Louis 2008, “Agriculture, Diffusion and Development: Ripple Effects of the
Neolithic Revolution”, Economica, 75(300): 729–748.
Putterman, Louis, and David N. Weil 2010, “Post-1500 Population Flows and The
Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4): 1627–1682.
Robson, Arthur J., and Larry Samuelson 2011, “The Evolutionary Foundations of
Preferences”, In Handbook of Social Economics, Volume 1A, edited by Jess Benhabib, Alberto Bisin, and Matthew O. Jackson, 221–310, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg 2009, “The Diffusion of Development”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(2): 469–529.
Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg 2013, “How Deep Are the Roots of Economic
Development?”, Journal of Economic Literature, 51(2): 325–369.
Deep roots of comparative development
Quamrul H. Ashraf, Oded Galor
49
Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg 2016, “The Diffusion of Institutions”, In Complexity and Evolution: Toward a New Synthesis for Economics, edited by David S.
Wilson and Alan Kirman, 147–166, Cambridge: MIT Press.
About the authors
Quamrul H. Ashraf is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at Williams College. His scholarly interests lie in the areas of economic growth
and development, economic demography, and macroeconomics. Ashraf’s main
research program has been focused on exploring the deep, historically rooted
cultural, institutional, and geographical determinants of economic growth and the
global dynamics of comparative development across societies in the very long run,
including the influence of prehistorically determined intra-population diversity and of
the biogeographic determinants of the transition to sedentary agriculture during the
Neolithic Revolution. His other work has focused on using simulation-based models
of economic growth to quantitatively assess the aggregate implications of economy-
wide policy interventions to improve public health or reduce population growth; and
applying the methodology of agent-based computational economics to investigate
various macroeconomic phenomena, including the real costs of inflation and the role of
the banking system in macroeconomic crises. Ashraf holds BA degrees in Economics
and Computer Science from Trinity College (Connecticut, U.S.A.) and MA and PhD
degrees in Economics from Brown University.
Oded Galor is the Herbert H. Goldberger Professor of Economics at Brown University.
He has led the NBER research group on Income Distribution and Macroeconomics
and he is a Research Fellow of the CEPR and IZA, and a Research Associate of the
NBER and CESifo. He is the Editor in Chief of the Journal of Economic Growth,
and a member of the editorial board of several journals, including Economics and
Human Biology, the Journal of Economic Inequality, the Journal of Population
Economics and Macroeconomic Dynamics.
He is the founder of Unified Growth Theory. He has contributed to the understanding
of process of development over the entire course of human history and the role of deep-
rooted factors in the transition from stagnation to growth and in the emergence of the
vast inequality across the globe. Moreover, he has pioneered the exploration of the
impact of human evolution, human genetic diversity, and inequality on the process of
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development over most of human existence. His interdisciplinary research has redirected
research in the field of economic growth to the exploration of the long shadow of history
and to the role of biogeographical forces in comparative economic development. It has
spawned the influential literatures studying the impact of inequality on the process of
development, the interaction between human evolution and economic development, the
transition from stagnation to growth, and the impact of human diversity on comparative
economic development.
51
4 Barriers to the spread of prosperity
Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg Tufts University; UCLA Anderson School of Management
Introduction
The diffusion of wealth is arguably the most consequential development for human
welfare in recent history. Since the Industrial Revolution, modern prosperity has spread
from its European birthplace to many corners of the world.1 Yet the technologies,
institutions and behaviours associated with this process of economic modernisation
have diffused unequally over space and time. Why?
A recent literature has documented the important role played by deeply-rooted factors
as predictors of the current world distribution of income and other economic outcomes.
These factors include geographic conditions and historical events that sent different
societies on different economic trajectories — the effects of bio-geographic endowments
(Olsson and Hibbs 2005, Ashraf and Galor 2011), the legacy of colonialism (Acemoglu
et al. 2001), the persistent effect of pre-colonial traits and institutions (Michalopoulos
and Papaioannou 2013), the durable cultural impact of traditional agricultural practices
(Alesina et al. 2013), and the effects of long-term history and movements of populations
across the globe (Spolaore and Wacziarg 2009, Putterman and Weil 2010, Ashraf and
Galor 2013), to name but a few. Many of these historical determinants are summarised in
1 For example, see Mokyr (2005) for an insightful historical discussion and Galor (2011) for a unified account of the
growth take-off.
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this e-book. However, the mechanisms by which deeply-rooted factors influence current
prosperity remain elusive. Moreover, studies that emphasise the persistence of historical
legacies and long-term determinants raise questions about the scope for change. As
pointed out, for instance, in an excellent discussion by Banerjee and Duflo (2014), there
is an inherent tension between historical determinism and the ability of policy to affect
outcomes. If the past casts such a long shadow, can contemporary societies escape from
factors and constraints that may have historically limited their economic development?
In this chapter, we argue that the divergent historical paths followed by distinct
populations led to barriers between them. The more divergent the historical paths of
different populations, the greater the barriers. And the greater the barriers, the more
difficult it was for innovations, institutions and behaviours to spread from society to
society. Hence, on average, countries that are richer today are those more closely related
to the frontier society where modern technologies, institutions and behaviours first arose.
In order to prosper, more distantly related societies need to overcome the barriers that
separate them from societies that are closer to the frontier. However, while such barriers
are deeply-rooted, their effect is not permanent and immutable. Historical factors do
not constitute permanent limits to the growth potential of those with disadvantageous
historical legacies. Instead, barriers resulting from distinct historical trajectories can be
gradually overcome, suggesting a substantial role for action and positive change.
Measuring human barriers
In principle, barriers to the transmission of prosperity can arise from numerous sources.
Geographic barriers are likely to be important for several outcomes, and they are perhaps
easiest to measure and control for in empirical work on the diffusion of development.
Measuring human barriers – those that prevent, at a given geographic distance, the spread
of innovations, institutions and behaviours – is much more challenging. In our past work,
beginning with Spolaore and Wacziarg (2009), we employed a variety of measures of
historical separation among populations to capture human barriers. Chief among them was
FST genetic distance, a measure that captures separation times between populations: when
humans migrated out of Africa, groups splintered as they moved across continents, and
the groups that separated earlier had more time to drift apart genetically than groups that
separated more recently. Hence, genetic distance is correlated with how long populations
Barriers to the spread of prosperity
Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg
53
have had a common history. Pairs of societies with smaller genetic distance are expected
to have lower human barriers to the spread of development.2
The idea behind the use of genetic distance as a general proxy for human barriers is
that human traits – not only biological but also cultural – are mostly transmitted, with
variation, from generation to generation (i.e. vertically). Thus, the longer two societies
have drifted apart, the greater the differences in traits between them, and the greater
the barriers that separate them. Of course, genetic distance is by no means the only
measure of intergenerational separation times. Linguistic distance is a closely related
class of measures, again based on a trait that is mostly transmitted vertically (language).
Another possibility is to look directly at differences in culture, as revealed by surveys:
values, norms, and attitudes (including but not limited to religion). Cultural values
can be transmitted in a number of ways – vertically, from generation to generation;
obliquely, across biologically unrelated members of the same society; or horizontally,
i.e. across societies (Richerson and Boyd 2005). The vertical dimension of transmission
is a common feature of genetic traits and language, as well as of norms and values. Thus,
metrics of distance between societies that are based on these three classes of measures,
while distinct from each other, should be positively correlated. This is indeed what
we find in Spolaore and Wacziarg (2016a), where we further discuss and document
empirically the complex links between various measures of human relatedness. In a
nutshell, the vertical transmission of genes, language and culture accounts for the positive
correlations between human distance metrics based on each of these traits. Yet these
measures are not perfectly correlated because: i) there are differential rates of drift in
genes, language and values, ii) some of these traits are transmitted horizontally, and iii)
different methodologies are used to compute distances across the three classes. In our
ongoing research on the diffusion of development, we use all three classes of measures.
2 Of course, since geographic and genetic distances are correlated - because groups splintered gradually as they moved
farther and farther away from East Africa, while conquering other territories - it is imperative to control for geographic
distance in any work that uses genetic distance as a measure of human barriers.
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Three examples
What is the evidence that these measures of human relatedness matter when predicting
differences in prosperity? In recent work we have found such evidence in a variety
of contexts. Here we will discuss three: technology, institutional quality, and fertility
behaviour.
The diffusion of development .
In Spolaore and Wacziarg (2009 2014a) we documented a strong correlation between
genetic distance between countries relative to the technological frontier and their
differences in levels of development: two societies are predicted to have similar levels
of development if they happen to be at relatively similar distances from the global
technological frontier (in our applications, either the United States or Northwestern
Europe). We interpreted this correlation as indicative of barriers to the spread of the
Industrial Revolution. We showed in particular that the effect of barriers was largest
just after the Industrial Revolution, when some but not all countries had transitioned to
economic modernity. The effect declined as more and more societies, at successively
greater genetic distances from the innovation frontier, became rich. In the age of
globalisation, when barriers became easier to overcome, the effect fell further (Figure 1).
Further, in Spolaore and Wacziarg (2012, 2014a) we found that this pattern held true
not just for the overall level of prosperity, measured by per capita income, but also for
specific technologies (cell phones, computers, etc.). In sum, societies that are historically
distant from the technological frontier have a harder time adopting better technologies,
and consequently take longer to become prosperous.
Barriers to the spread of prosperity
Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg
55
Figure 1. Standardised effect of genetic distance relative to the UK on bilateral
differences in per capita income over time, 1820–2005
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
St an
da rd
is ed
e ff ec
t o f r
el at
iv e
g en
et ic
d is
ta nc
e
Year
source: Spolaore and Wacziarg (2014a)
The diffusion of institutions.
In Spolaore and Wacziarg (2016b) we conducted a similar exercise to understand the
worldwide diffusion of democracy during the Third Wave of Democratisation that took
off in the 1970s. The manner of this diffusion process was similar to the spread of the
Industrial Revolution: genetic distance relative to the institutional frontier (the United
States) matters increasingly after the onset of the third wave, and declines gradually as
more countries, at greater distances from the institutional frontier, become democratic
(Figure 2). What deserves further research is the precise mechanism whereby institutional
change spreads from one country to the next.
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Figure 2. Standardised effect of genetic distance relative to the USA on bilateral
differences in Polity 2 Democracy scores, 1960–2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
St an
da rd
is ed
e ff ec
t o f
re la
ti ve
g en
et ic
d is
ta nc
e
Year
source: Spolaore and Wacziarg (2016b)
The diffusion of the fertility transition in Europe .
In the two examples above, the effect of distance from the frontier fades away after
some time, but does not disappear entirely. Yet a prediction of our diffusion model is
that the effect of ancestral distance should disappear after the most distant societies
have finally overcome the barriers and adopted modern technologies, institutions and
behaviours. The case of the European fertility transition, starting in the early 19th century
in France, affords an example where the entire diffusion process can be observed within
our sample. In Spolaore and Wacziarg (2014b), we analysed this process in a panel of
European regions from 1831 to 1970. We measured ancestral distance using linguistic
distance, since this was more readily available for the regions of Europe than genetic
distance. Initially, only regions that spoke a language close to French adopted the fertility
behaviour first observed in France in the late 18th-early 19th century. Later, regions at
Barriers to the spread of prosperity
Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg
57
successively greater distances from France adopted the new behaviour. By the end of
our sample period, virtually every region in Europe had adopted modern behaviours
regarding fertility (i.e. 2-3 children per household). The interpretation of this particular
diffusion process is different than for our other examples for two reasons. First, the
frontier society in this case was not England, but France. This fact highlights how
different innovations may start at different frontiers – implying different barriers to their
diffusion. Second, fertility behaviours likely diffused as the result of a process of social
influence regarding appropriate norms of fertility, rather than the diffusion of specific
technologies (although the diffusion of birth control methods – broadly defined – may
have played a complementary role). Whatever the precise mechanism, the lesson is clear:
ancestral barriers, measured by relative linguistic distance from French, predicted the
diffusion of modern fertility behaviours across Europe.
Figure 3. Standardised effect of linguistic distance to French on marital fertility
through time, in overlapping samples of 30 years centred on the date
displayed in the x-axis. The sample is a balanced sample of 519 European
regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956
St an
da rd
is ed
e ffe
ct o
f lin
gu is
ti c
di st
an ce
t o
Fr en
ch
Year
source: Spolaore and Wacziarg (2014b)
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Conclusion: Barriers and the scope for policy
As we have argued in this chapter, populations that are historically and culturally more
distant face higher barriers to adopting each other’s technologies, institutions, and
behavioural innovations. Such barriers – measured by genetic, linguistic and cultural
distance – stem from long-term historical divergence, and thus capture the effect of
deeply-rooted historical factors that sent different populations on different historical
trajectories. However, we have also seen that the effect of barriers is not permanent and
immutable, but changes over time, as societies that are farther from the frontier also
learn and adopt novel technologies and innovations.
Moreover, the frontier itself is not immutable, but changes over time, and may differ
depending on the specific innovation – for example, the frontier was originally England
for the Industrial Revolution, but France for the societal changes in norms and behaviour
associated with Europe’s demographic transition.
If such historical barriers can be overcome – and they have indeed been overcome by
many societies over time – there is room for optimism regarding the scope for change
and progress, even when dealing with persistent historical factors.3 While distances
themselves may be deeply-rooted in history, their impact on contemporary outcomes can,
in principle, be affected by current actions and policies. For instance, policy can reduce
obstacles to interactions and communication between people from different cultural and
linguistic backgrounds. Our research suggests that the effect of barriers to the spread of
prosperity has diminished in the age of globalisation. The ease with which ideas, people,
goods and capital can flow across societal borders helps to reduce the ancestral barriers
that kept populations from learning from each other. Facilitating these flows, therefore,
offers the promise of lower barriers to the spread of prosperity.
3 That said, we should add that inter-population barriers do not always play a negative role in human history. They may
also prevent the spread of deleterious innovations, such as hateful ideologies or disruptive behaviors, and may reduce
international conflict over territories and resources (see Spolaore and Wacziarg 2016c).
Barriers to the spread of prosperity
Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg
59
References
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial Origins of Comparative
Development”, American Economic Review, vol. 91, no. 5, pp. 1369-1401
Alesina, A., P. Giuliano and N. Nunn (2013), “On the Origins of Gender Roles: Women
and the Plough”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 128, no. 2 ,pp. 469-530
Ashraf, Q., and O. Galor (2011), “Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch”,
American Economic Review, 101 (5): 2003–41.
Ashraf, Q. and O. Galor (2013), “The ‘Out of Africa’ Hypothesis, Human Genetic
Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development”, American Economic Review, vol.
103, no. 1, pp. 1-46,
Banerjee, A. and E. Duflo (2014), “Under the Thumb of History? Political Institutions
and the Scope for Action”, Annual Review of Economics, vol. 6, pp. 951-971.
Galor, O. (2011), Unified Growth Theory, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Michalopoulos, S. and E. Papaioannou (2013), “Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and
Contemporary African Development”, Econometrica, vol. 81, no. 1, pp. 113-152,
Mokyr, J. (2005), “Long-Term Economic Growth and the History of Technology”, In
Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1B, edited by P. Aghion and S. N. Durlauf, pp.
1113–80. Amsterdam: Elsevier, North-Holland.
Olsson, O. and D. A. Hibbs Jr. (2005), “Biogeography and Long-Run Economic
Development”, European Economic Review, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 909–38.
Putterman, L. and D. N. Weil (2010), “Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long-Run
Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality”, Quarterly Journal of Economics,
vol. 125, no. 4, pp. 1627–82.
Richerson, P. J. and R. Boyd (2005), Not By Genes Alone: How Culture Transformed
Human Evolution, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Spolaore, E. and R. Wacziarg (2009), “The Diffusion of Development”, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, vol. 124, no. 2, pp. 469-529
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Spolaore, E. and R. Wacziarg (2012), “Long-Term Barriers to the International Diffusion
of Innovations”, in Jeffrey Frankel and Christopher Pissarides (eds.), NBER International
Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, Chapter 1, pp. 11-46. Chicago: University of
Chicago Press.
Spolaore, E. and R. Wacziarg (2014a), “Long-Term Barriers to Economic
Development”, in Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of Economic
Growth, vol. 2A, Chapter 3, pp. 121-176. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Spolaore, E. and R. Wacziarg (2014b), Fertility and Modernity, working paper, August.
Spolaore, E. and R. Wacziarg (2016a), “Ancestry, Language and Culture”, in Victor
Ginsburgh and Shlomo Weber (eds.), The Palgrave Handbook of Economics and
Language, Chapter 6, pp. 174-211, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Spolaore, E. and R. Wacziarg (2016b), “The Diffusion of Institutions”, in Wilson, D. S.
and A. Kirman, eds. Complexity and Evolution: Toward a New Synthesis for Economics,
Strüngmann Forum Reports, vol. 19, chapter 9, pp. 147-166. Cambridge, MA: The MIT
Press.
Spolaore, E. and R. Wacziarg (2016c), “War and Relatedness”, Review of Economics
and Statistics, vol. 98, no. 5, pp. 925–939.
About the authors
Enrico Spolaore is a Professor of Economics at Tufts University, where he served
as Chair of the Department of Economics from 2006 to 2012. He is also a Research
Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a CESIfo Fellow at
the University of Munich, and an External Associate at the University of Warwick’s
Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE). He was a Co-editor
of Economics and Politics for five years, and has served as a Consultant for the European
Commission and other institutions. A native of Italy, Spolaore holds economics degrees
from the University of Rome and the University of Siena, and a Ph.D. in Economics
from Harvard University.
Barriers to the spread of prosperity
Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg
61
Spolaore’s main research interests are in political economy, economic growth and
development, and international economics. His work has covered a variety of topics:
the determination of the size of countries, the political economy of fiscal policy and
adjustments, the evaluation of social mobility, the determinants of international conflict,
the political economy of European integration, the deep roots of economic development,
the barriers to the spread of technological and institutional innovations, the decline of
fertility, and the relation between ancestry and culture.
His publications include numerous articles in academic journals (American Economic
Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, etc.) and book
chapters, as well as the monograph The Size of Nations (with Alberto Alesina, MIT
Press, 2003 – paperback edition 2005), and the two-volume edited collection Culture
and Economic Growth (Edward Elgar, 2014).
Romain Wacziarg is Professor of Economics and the Hans Hufschmid Chair at the
UCLA Anderson School of Management. His research on the roots of economic
prosperity has been published in leading academic journals such as the Quarterly
Journal of Economics, the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics
and Statistics, the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Development
Economics and the Journal of Economic Growth. He was the Edward Teller National
Fellow at the Hoover Institution in 2002-2003.
Outside UCLA, he is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER). From 1998 to 2008, he was a Professor at the Stanford Graduate School of
Business. In addition to his academic experience, he worked as a Consultant for the
World Bank. He was born in Switzerland, raised in India and France, and moved to the
United States in 1992 to obtain a PhD at Harvard University.
63
5 Environmental economic history
James Fenske and Namrata Kala University of Warwick and CEPR; Harvard University
Nash (1972) is generally credited with coining the term ‘environmental history’ to refer
to the then-emerging field, integrating ecology and geography into the understanding
of history. Examining ‘the interaction between human cultures and the environment in
the past’ (Worster, 1988), many early environmental historians followed the path set by
pioneering works such as Turner (1921) and Webb (1931), and wrote on the experiences
of Western countries. Nash (1967) studied American perceptions of wilderness, while
Hays (1959) focused on the conservation movement in the United States. As the
field developed, a global literature also developed that illuminated the reciprocal and
dynamic relationship between humans and their environment in other regions of the
world, for example in Africa (Beinart 1984, Fairhead and Leach 1996, Harms 1999),
in Asia (Elvin 2008, Gadgil and Guha 1993), and in global perspective (Crosby 1972).
For over a decade, economists have been contributing to this literature, usually using
different techniques than those used by environmental historians, and emphasising the
different contributions made by their work. A key contribution of this literature has been
a focus on isolating specific causal relationships, within a broader and more complex
environment that includes knowledge, capital and institutions (Hornbeck 2012a),
usually involving the generation and assembly of new Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) databases. The list of environmental factors considered in this literature is broad,
including, but certainly not limited to, pollution, wind patterns, natural disasters, soil
quality, topography and the disease environment. This brief overview of environmental
economic history will focus on the effects of the environment on human outcomes, both
concurrent and in the long-run, rather than on human transformations of the environment,
though the latter is an important part of this literature (e.g. Hansen and Libecap 2004,
Hornbeck and Keskin 2014, Taylor 2011). As we discuss in the following paragraphs,
the environmental factors have far-reaching implications for development, beyond
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direct environmental impacts – for instance, agricultural endowments or changes can be
mechanisms for the evolution of institutions, norms, and societal development. Other
environmental factors, such as the disease burden, have similar implications. We focus
on two topics in the literature in particular – the impact of geographic endowments
and the impact of environmental shocks on historical and long-run development.
This aspect of environmental economic history is thus closely related to the broader
economic history literature concerning the impact of historical events on long-term
development (see Nunn, 2014, for a comprehensive treatment).
Impacts of geographic endowments
One major strand of this literature has examined direct economic impacts of those
characteristics of the environment that are either time-invariant or very slow to change.
This overlaps with studies of the role of geography in economic growth over the very
long run (e.g. Andersen et al. 2016 on ultraviolet radiation, and Galor and Özak 2016
on potential crop yields). For instance, economists have written on the effects of the
disease environment on development in the past and on how the environment has
shaped historical institutions. Bleakley (2007) draws causal inference on the impacts
of hookworm disease on education by measuring the convergence of previously high-
infection areas with previously low-infection areas of the United States in the aftermath
of a rapid eradication campaign in the early twentieth century. His empirical approach
has also been used to evaluate the importance of other diseases in other contexts (e.g.
Lucas 2010, Cutler et al. 2010).
In estimating the impact of geographic endowments on institutions, Fenske (2014) and
Depetris-Chauvin (2015) have both linked state centralisation in pre-colonial Africa
to the gains from trade stemming from ecological diversity. Fenske (2013), similarly,
documents the geographical forcing variables that predict land rights, slavery and
population density in a cross section of global societies. These studies have merged GIS
maps of the African environment with other spatial data on the continent’s institutional
history, and based causal inference on evidence from instrumental variables and narrow
within-country comparisons of observations. Bubb (2013), on a microeconomic level,
has found exogenous suitability for tree-crop cultivation to be a much stronger predictor
Environmental economic history
James Fenske and Namrata Kala
65
of property-rights institutions governing land in the Ivory Coast and Ghana than the
colonial institutions of either country. Similar GIS databases on soil characteristics and
their variations have been used to examine the historical origins of cultural patterns
such as female labour force participation (Alesina et al. 2013), ethnic diversity
(Michalopoulos 2012) and the spread of Islam (Michalopoulos et al. 2016).
Other work on the impact of geographic endowments has instead focused on the indirect
legacies of geographic endowments that affect the present, because of how they have
shaped history. Alsan (2014), in a prominent example, argues that the TseTse fly reduces
African prosperity in the present, principally because it inhibited pre-colonial political
centralisation. To do this, Alsan constructed a novel GIS TseTse suitability index and
merged it with existing spatial data on African ethnic groups’ locations, precolonial
institutions, and modern luminosity. Her causal claims were supported by adjustment
for a wide set of covariates, narrow within-country comparisons, and a placebo exercise
showing no similar effects of TseTse suitability in parts of the world where the fly itself
was absent. Fiszbein (2016) uses exogenous variation in climatic conditions that affect
the returns to agricultural diversity to study the impact of agricultural diversity on long-
term industrial development in the US.
Nunn (2014), similarly, has highlighted the role of the environment in shaping particular
historical events and processes, which themselves have long-term impacts. Africa’s
slave trades are an example: recent work has shown that terrain ruggedness (Nunn
and Puga 2012) and geographic isolation from sources of slave supply (Nunn 2008)
have influenced the dynamics of the slave trade and, through these factors, African
development. These studies have employed GIS resources on the continent’s geography
and historic climate and added geocodes to existing databases of the slave trade; they
draw causal inference from the results of instrumental variables and placebo analyses.
Studies of the long-run impacts of Africa’s slave trades have turned to these same
geographic conditions in isolating plausibly exogenous variation in slave exports (e.g.
Nunn and Wantchekon 2011, Dalton and Leung 2014).
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Impacts of environmental shocks
Given the importance of time-varying environmental events, such as weather fluctuations
and natural disasters, and due to the possibilities for convincing causal inference,
stemming from exogenous change, several studies have evaluated the importance of
environmental shocks in economic history. Several papers have examined immediate
economic effects of events such as droughts, floods, and the spread of new diseases.
Much of this literature has focused on the United States. Davis et al. (2009), for
example, use the weather-driven variations in nineteenth century cotton crops to infer
a causal effect on non-agricultural business cycles; greater cotton exports increased
the supply of high-powered money in the economy. Fishback et al. (2011), similarly,
have investigated whether climate or weather affected mortality rates during the Great
Depression. Other papers have examined the effects of similar shocks in other parts
of the world: Fenske and Kala (2015) and Rönnbäck (2014), for example, have both
examined the role of temperature fluctuations in the transatlantic slave trade and found
that these affected the extent of participation in the slave trade and prices in African
markets.
The relative ease with which events such as conflict and political transitions in the
historical context can be recorded, and their importance in impacting the course of
history, have made these the focus of a considerable volume of work. Hsiang et al.
(2013) provide an extensive bibliography that includes several historical examples.
Christian and Fenske (2015) and Papaioannou and de Haas (2015) have linked episodes
of adverse weather to unrest and crime, respectively, during the colonial period in Africa.
For China, both Jia (2014) and Bai and Kung (2011) have similarly used fluctuations in
weather to explain historical episodes of violence. Chaney (2013) has found that years
of deviant Nile floods reduced the chances that the highest-ranking religious authority
in Muslim Egypt was replaced. These studies have taken data on historic weather from
archival sources or historic reconstructions and merged these with both primary and
secondary sources that document conflict and political transitions, in order to produce
historic datasets covering environmental economic history.
Other work has traced out the longer-run effects of environmental catastrophes by
contrasting the later trajectories of places or individuals affected by these events with
Environmental economic history
James Fenske and Namrata Kala
67
reasonable comparison groups who were not similarly treated. By geocoding soil erosion
maps, writers such as Cutler et al. (2007) and Arthi (2014) have examined the long run
health impacts of America’s dust bowl era on individuals, while Hornbeck (2012b) has
traced its implications for land values, population, and agricultural development. The
long-run consequences of droughts on the eve of the Mexican revolution (Dell 2012), the
spread of the boll weevil (Lange et al. 2009) and the Great Mississippi Flood (Hornbeck
and Naidu 2014) have received similar treatment. By demonstrating that these effects
often persist up to the present, these works have shown the relevance of environmental
history for understanding modern development.
Conclusion
Environmental history is now a mature field, and the environmental sub-field of
economic history is well-developed, but the integration of these literatures is, as yet, less
than ideal. It is our hope that findings, data sources and methods from the environmental
economic history literature will further enrich the writing of environmental history.
Furthermore, several important themes in the environmental history literature have
received limited attention from economists, such as the dynamic relationship between
successive Chinese states and their environment (Elvin 2008), the welfare implications
of colonial forest reservation (Gadgil and Guha 1993), and the political economy of
colonial land conservation (Mackenzie 1998). The natural environment has played
an important part in the development of societies, often mediated by its impact on
their institutions, and we look forward to seeing the integration of new methods and
questions in service of this important topic.
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Evidence from colonial tropical Africa, University of Wageningen Working Paper.
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About the authors
James Fenske is a Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of
Warwick. He completed his PhD at Yale University in 2010. He has been at Warwick
since 2016. His publications and working papers are available at www.jamesfenske.
com.
Namrata Kala is a Prize Fellow in Economics, History, and Politics, Harvard
University and a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab,
MIT. Her research interests include development and environmental economics, and
environmental history.
73
6 The persistence of technological creativity and the Great Enrichment: Reflections on the “Rise of Europe.”
Joel Mokyr
Northwestern University 1
How and why did the modern world and its unprecedented prosperity begin? Many
bookshelves are filled with learned tomes by historians, economists, political scientists,
and other erudite scholars, providing endless explanations as to why the process
of modern economic growth or ‘the Great Enrichment’ started in western Europe
in the 18th century. One of the oldest and most persuasive of these is the political
fragmentation of Europe throughout most of its history. No ruler was ever able to unite
Europe in the way the Mongols and the Mings united China. As a result, European
rulers found themselves competing for the best and most productive intellectuals and
artisans. Scholars have debated the merits and mechanisms of what Eric L. Jones called
‘the states system’ and the consensus seems to be that, while the costs were substantial
in terms of warfare, protectionism, and coordination failures, in the very long run the
benefits turned out to be larger.
In 1789, in the closing chapter of his Rise and Fall, Edward Gibbon wrote that
‘Europe is now divided into twelve powerful, though unequal, kingdoms, three
respectable commonwealths, and a variety of smaller, though independent, states ... The
abuses of tyranny are restrained by the mutual influence of fear and shame; republics
1 The following is based on sections from my forthcoming A Culture of Growth: Origins of the Modern Economy
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2016)
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have acquired order and stability; monarchies have imbibed the principles of freedom,
or, at least, of moderation; and some sense of honour and justice is introduced into the
most defective constitutions by the general manners of the times. In peace, the progress
of knowledge and industry is accelerated by the emulation of so many active rivals...’
Other Enlightenment writers, such as David Hume and Immanuel Kant, saw it the same
way. Interstate rivalry did many things, and not all of them good for economic growth.
But they stimulated policies that encouraged innovation and the adoption of modern
technology, from the reforms of Peter the Great to the Sputnik panic in the United
States in 1957. More important, perhaps, is that the ‘states system’ constrained the
ability of political and religious authorities to control intellectual innovation. If they
clamped down on heretical and subversive (that is, original and creative) thought, their
smartest citizens would just go elsewhere (as many of them, indeed, did).
The objection to this view is that fragmentation is not a sufficient condition. The Indian
subcontinent and the Middle East were fragmented for much of their history, and Africa
even more so, yet they did not experience a Great Enrichment. Clearly, more was
needed. One element of scientific and technological development, that has perhaps not
received as much attention as it should, is the size of the ‘market’ that intellectual and
technological innovators faced. In 1769, Matthew Boulton wrote to his partner James
Watt, ‘It is not worth my while to manufacture [your engine] for three coun ties only;
but I find it very well worth my while to make it for all the world.’ What was true for
steam engines was true for books and essays on astronomy, medicine, and mathematics.
Writing such a book involved fixed costs, and so the size of the market mattered. If
fragmentation meant that the constituency of each innovator was small, it would have
dampened the incentives.
This difficulty was resolved in late medieval and early modern Europe. What emerged
and turned out to be of great importance, is that political fragmentation was coupled
with an intellectual and cultural unity, a more or less integrated market for ideas,
that allowed Europe to benefit from the increasing return associated with intellectual
activity. This unity was rooted in Europe’s classical heritage (with the widespread
use of Latin as the lingua franca of intellectuals), and the structure of the Christian
Church. While, for much of the Middle Ages, the intensity of intellectual activity
The persistence of technological creativity and the Great Enrichment: Reflections on the “Rise of Europe”
Joel Mokyr
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(in terms of both the number of participants and the intensity of the debates) was light
compared to what it was to become after 1500, it was transnational. By 1500 or so,
national boundaries mattered little in the thin but lively community of intellectuals
in Europe. Many of its leaders moved back and forth within Europe, despite the slow
and uncomfortable nature of travel. Two of the most prominent leaders of 16th century
humanism, the Valencia-born Juan Luis Vives and Desiderius Erasmus embodied this
footlooseness: Vives studied in Paris, lived most of his life in Flanders, but was also a
member of Corpus Christi College in Oxford and served for a while as tutor to Henry
VIII’s daughter Mary; Erasmus moved back and forth between Leuven, England, and
Basel but also spent time in Turin and Venice. In the 17th century such mobility among
intellectuals became even more pronounced.
Moreover, through the printing press and the much improved postal system, written
knowledge spread faster than ever. Attempts by conservatives to suppress new ideas
foundered in a pluralistic environment. The reputations of intellectual superstars like
Galileo and Spinoza were such that, if local authorities tried to prohibit the publication
of their works, they would easily find publishers abroad. Galileo’s ‘banned’ books
were smuggled out of Italy and published in Protestant cities, as in the case of the
Discorsi, published in Leiden in 1638 and the Dialogo, re-published in Strasbourg in
1635. Spinoza’s publisher, Jan Riewertz, placed ‘Hamburg’ on the title page of the
Tractatus to mislead censors, even though the book was published in Amsterdam. In
this way intellectuals could manipulate a set of divided and uncoordinated polities for
the sake of intellectual freedom.
This unique combination of political fragmentation, along with the pan-European
institution of the Republic of Letters, holds the key to the dramatic intellectual changes
after 1500. Books written in one part of Europe found their way to other areas, and were
soon read, quoted, plagiarised, discussed, and commented upon everywhere. When a
new discovery was made anywhere in Europe, it was debated and tested throughout
the continent. Fifty years after the publication of William Harvey’s De Motu Cordis,
the English doctor and intellectual Thomas Browne reflected on Harvey’s discovery
that ‘at the first trump of the circulation all the schools of Europe murmured ... and
condemned it by a general vote ... but at length [it was] accepted and confirmed by
illustrious physicians.’
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The superstars of European learning catered to a European, not a local, audience and
enjoyed continent-wide reputations. They saw themselves as citizens of a ‘Republic of
Letters’ and regarded this entity, in the words of Pierre Bayle (one of the central figures
in it), as a free commonwealth, an empire of truth. The political metaphor was mostly
wishful thinking, but it reflected the features of the community as an institution that set
rules of conduct for the market for ideas – above all the central belief in contestability
and the willingness to slaughter sacred cows, and a commitment to open science. To
return to Gibbon: he observed that the philo sopher, unlike the patriot, was permitted
to consider Europe as a single ‘great republic’ in which the balance of power may
continue to fluctuate and the prosperity of some nations ‘may be alternately exalted or
depressed’, but which guaranteed a ‘general state of happiness, system of arts and laws
and manners’ which ‘advantageously distinguished’ Europe from other civili sations.
What this meant was that, in this regard, Europe’s intellectual community had the best
of both worlds, with the advantages of an integrated transnational academic community
superimposed on a competitive states system. This system produced many of the
cultural ingredients that paved the way for the Great Enrichment: a belief in social and
economic progress, a growing regard for scientific and intellectual innovation, and the
commitment to a Baconian programme of knowledge in the service of economic growth.
Its scientists adopted the idea of experimental science as a prime tool, and accepted the
use of increasingly more sophisticated mathematics as a method of understanding and
codifying nature. It also produced the European Enlightenment, in which the belief in
progress was translated into a coherent political programme, a programme that, despite
its many flaws and misfires, still dominates European polities and economies.
It should be emphasised that Europe’s success was not the result of any inherent
superiority of European (much less Christian) culture. It was a classical emergent
property, a complex and unintended outcome of simpler interactions on the collective
entity. It was the result of contingent institutional outcomes, and was neither designed nor
planned. Once in place, however, it created self-reinforcing and autocatalytic dynamics
that made knowledge-driven economic growth not just possible but sustainable. As long
as we regard the Republic of Letters as an ‘institution’ in the Northian sense, we can
see the Industrial Revolution as the outcome of institutional changes — but institutions
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Joel Mokyr
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at the level of the continent, not only the institutions of the modern nation state as most
scholars still seem to believe.
The idea of knowledge-driven economic growth as the primum movens of the Industrial
Revolution is still controversial, and rightly so. Examples of purely science-driven
inventions in the eighteenth century are few, though after 1815 their number rises
rapidly. Yet, dismissing the scientific revolution as irrelevant to modern economic
growth misses the point that, without an ever-growing understanding of nature, the
artisan-driven advances of the 18th century (especially in the textile industry) would
ineluctably have ground to a halt. Moreover, some inventions still needed inputs from
learned people, even if they cannot be said to be purely science-driven. For instance, the
marine chronometer – one of the most important inventions of the era of the Industrial
Revolution (though rarely mentioned as a part of it) – was made possible through the
work of earlier mathematical astronomers. The first of these was the sixteenth-century
Dutch (more accurately Frisian) astronomer and mathematician Jemme Reinerszoon,
known as Gemma Frisius, who suggested the possibility of what John Harrison (the
ingenious watchmaker who cracked this thorny problem) actually did.
It is interesting to note that the advances in science were driven not only by the
emergence of open science and the growing sophistication of the transnational market
for ideas, but also by the appearance of better tools and instruments, which in turn
facilitated research in natural philosophy. The most famous ones were the microscope,
telescope, barometer, and modern thermometer, all developed in the first half of the 17th
century. Improved physics, mathematics, and biology refuted many misconceptions,
inherited from classical antiquity, and made contestability increasingly irresistible
as a principle of investigation. The newly discovered notions of a vacuum and an
atmosphere stimulated the emergence of atmospheric engines. In turn, steam engines
inspired scientists to investigate the physics of the conversion of heat into motion, and,
more than a century after Newcomen’s first pump, thermodynamics was developed.
Taken together, these examples indicate that the interaction of propositional knowledge
(knowledge of ‘what’) and prescriptive knowledge (knowledge of ‘how’) constituted
a positive feedback or autocatalytic model that may not converge to any kind of basin
of attraction. In other words, once the process gets going, it becomes self-propelled.
In that sense, knowledge-based growth is one of the most persistent of all historical
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phenomena – though the conditions of its persistence are complex and require above
all a competitive and open market for ideas. This has two important corollaries. First,
we must recognise that things could have turned out differently than they did, with
fairly minor changes in initial conditions or accidents along the way. Had political and
military developments taken different turns in Europe, conservative forces might have
pre vailed and taken a more hostile attitude toward the new and progressive interpretation
of the world. There was nothing predetermined or inexorable in the ulti mate triumph
of scientific progress and sustained economic growth, any more than, say, the eventual
evolution of Homo sapiens (or any other specific species) on the planet. Second,
once in motion, the force of technological and scientific progress may be irresistible,
notwithstanding the backlash it has encountered in recent years. The world still consists
of competing entities, and seems not much closer to unification than it was in 1600. The
costs of fragmentation in terms of lost gains from trade and coordination are high, but
there may also be unintended benefits to the ‘new nationalism’.
About the author
Joel Mokyr is the Robert H. Strotz Professor of Arts and Sciences and Professor
of Economics and History at Northwestern University and Sackler Professor (by
special appointment) at the Eitan Berglas School of Economics at the University
of Tel Aviv. He specialises in economic history and the economics of technological
change and population change. He is the author of Why Ireland Starved: An
Analytical and Quantitative Study of the Irish Economy, The Lever of Riches:
Technological Creativity and Economic Progress, The British Industrial Revolution:
An Economic Perspective, The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge
Economy, and The Enlightened Economy: an Economic history of Britain, 1700-
1850. His most recent book is A Culture of Growth, published by Princeton
University Press in 2016. He has authored over 100 articles and books in his field.
He has served as the senior editor of the Journal of Economic History from 1994 to 1998,
and was editor in chief of the Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History (published in
July 2003), and serves as editor in chief of a book series, the Princeton University Press
Economic History of the Western World. He served as President of the Economic History
The persistence of technological creativity and the Great Enrichment: Reflections on the “Rise of Europe”
Joel Mokyr
79
Association 2003-04, President of the Midwest Economics Association in 2007/08,
President of the Atlantic Economic Association (2015/16), and is a director of the
National Bureau of Economic Research. He serves as chair of the advisory committee
of the Institutions, Organizations, and Growth program of the Canadian Institute of
Advanced Research. He served as chair of the Economics Department at Northwestern
University between 1998 and 2001 and was a fellow at the Center for Advanced
Studies in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford between Sept. 2001 and June 2002.
Professor Mokyr has an undergraduate degree from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
and a Ph.D. from Yale University. He has taught at Northwestern since 1974, and has
been a visiting Professor at Harvard, the University of Chicago, Stanford University,
the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, the University of Tel Aviv, University College
of Dublin, and the University of Manchester. In 2006 he was awarded the biennial
Heineken Prize by the Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences for a lifetime achievement
in historical science. In 2015 he was awarded the Balzan Prize for Economic History.
He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a foreign fellow of
the Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, a
corresponding fellow of the British Academy, and a Fellow of the Econometric Society
and the Cliometric Society. His books have won a number of important prizes including
the Joseph Schumpeter memorial prize (1990), the Ranki prize for the best book in
European Economic history and the Donald Price Prize of the American Political
Science Association.
81
7 The economic impact of colonialism
Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson MIT and CEPR; University of Chicago and CEPR
The immense economic inequality we observe in the world today didn’t happen
overnight, or even in the past century. It is the path dependent outcome of a multitude of
historical processes, one of the most important of which has been European colonialism.
Retracing our steps 500 years, or back to the verge of this colonial project, we see little
inequality and small differences between poor and rich countries (perhaps a factor of
four). Now the differences are a factor of more than 40, if we compare the richest to the
poorest countries in the world. What role did colonialism play in this?
In our research with Simon Johnson we have shown that colonialism has shaped modern
inequality in several fundamental, but heterogeneous, ways. In Europe the discovery
of the Americas and the emergence of a mass colonial project, first in the Americas,
and then, subsequently, in Asia and Africa, potentially helped to spur institutional and
economic development, thus setting in motion some of the prerequisites for what was
to become the industrial revolution (Acemoglu et al. 2005). But the way this worked
was conditional on institutional differences within Europe. In places like Britain, where
an early struggle against the monarchy had given parliament and society the upper
hand, the discovery of the Americas led to the further empowerment of mercantile and
industrial groups, who were able to benefit from the new economic opportunities that
the Americas, and soon Asia, presented and to push for improved political and economic
institutions. The consequence was economic growth. In other places, such as Spain,
where the initial political institutions and balance of power were different, the outcome
was different. The monarchy dominated society, trade and economic opportunities, and,
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in consequence, political institutions became weaker and the economy declined. As
Marx and Engels put it in the Communist Manifesto,
“The discovery of America, the rounding of the Cape, opened up fresh ground for
the rising bourgeoisie.”
It did, but only in some circumstances. In others it led to a retardation of the bourgeoisie.
In consequence colonialism drove economic development in some parts of Europe and
retarded it in others.
Colonialism did not, however, merely impact the development of those societies that did
the colonising. Most obviously, it also affected the societies that were colonised. In our
research (Acemoglu et al. 2001, 2002) we showed that this, again, had heterogeneous
effects. This is because colonialism ended up creating very distinct sorts of societies
in different places. In particular, colonialism left very different institutional legacies
in different parts of the world, with profoundly divergent consequences for economic
development. The reason for this is not that the various European powers transplanted
different sorts of institutions – so that North America succeeded due to an inheritance
of British institutions, while Latin America failed because of its Spanish institutions. In
fact, the evidence suggests that the intentions and strategies of distinct colonial powers
were very similar (Acemoglu and Robinson 2012). The outcomes were very different
because of variation in initial conditions in the colonies. For example, in Latin America,
where there were dense populations of indigenous people, a colonial society could be
created based on the exploitation of these people. In North America where no such
populations existed, such a society was infeasible, even though the first British settlers
tried to set it up. In response, early North American society went in a completely
different direction: early colonising ventures, such as the Virginia Company, needed
to attract Europeans and stop them running off into the open frontier and they needed
to incentivise them to work and invest. The institutions that did this, such as political
rights and access to land, were radically different even from the institutions in the
colonising country. When British colonisers found Latin-American-like circumstances,
for example in South Africa, Kenya or Zimbabwe, they were perfectly capable of and
interested in setting up what we have called ‘extractive institutions’, based on the control
of and the extraction of rents from indigenous peoples. Acemoglu and Robinson (2012) argue
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that extractive institutions, which strip the vast mass of the population of incentives or
opportunities, are associated with poverty. It is also not a coincidence that such African
societies are today as unequal as Latin American countries.
It wasn’t just the density of indigenous peoples that mattered for the type of society
that formed. As we showed in Acemoglu et al. (2001) the disease environment
facing potential European settlers was also important. Something that encouraged
the colonisation of North America was the relatively benign disease environment
that facilitated the strategy of creating institutions to guarantee European migration.
Something that encouraged the creation of extractive institutions in West Africa was
the fact that it was the ‘white man’s graveyard’, discouraging the creation of the type
of ‘inclusive economic institutions’ which encouraged the settlement and development
of North America. These inclusive institutions, in contrast to extractive institutions, did
create incentives and opportunities for the vast mass of people.
Our focus on the disease environment as a source of variation in colonial societies was
not because we considered this to be the only or even the main source of variation in
the nature of such societies. It was for a particular scientific reason: we argued that the
historical factors that influenced the disease environment for Europeans and therefore
their propensity to migrate to a particular colony are not themselves a significant source
of variation in economic development today. More technically, this meant that historical
measures of European settler mortality could be used as an instrumental variable
to estimate the causal effect of economic institutions on economic development (as
measured by income per-capita). The main challenge to this approach is that factors
which influenced European mortality historically may be persistent and can influence
income today, perhaps via effects on health or contemporary life expectancy. There
are several reasons why this is not likely to be true however. First, our measures of
European mortality in the colonies are from 200 or so years ago, before the founding of
modern medicine or the understanding of tropical diseases. Second, they are measures
of mortality faced by Europeans with no immunity to tropical diseases, which is
something very different from the mortality faced by indigenous people today, which is
presumably what is relevant for current economic development in these countries. Just
to check, we also showed that our results are robust to the controlling econometrically
of various modern measures of health, such as malaria risk and life expectancy.
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Thus, just as colonialism had heterogeneous effects on development within Europe,
promoting it in places like Britain, but retarding it in Spain, so it also had very
heterogeneous effects in the colonies. In some places, like North America, it created
societies with far more inclusive institutions than in the colonising country itself and
planted the seeds for the immense current prosperity of the region. In others, such as
Latin America, Africa or South Asia, it created extractive institutions that led to very
poor long-run development outcomes.
The fact that colonialism had positive effects on development in some contexts does
not mean that it did not have devastating negative effects on indigenous populations
and society. It did.
That colonialism in the early modern and modern periods had heterogeneous effects
is made plausible by many other pieces of evidence. For example, Putnam (1994)
proposed that it was the Norman conquest of the South of Italy that created the lack
of ‘social capital’ in the region, the dearth of associational life that led to a society
that lacked trust or the ability to cooperate. Yet the Normans also colonised England
and that led to a society which gave birth to the industrial revolution. Thus Norman
colonisation had heterogeneous effects too.
Colonialism mattered for development because it shaped the institutions of different
societies. But many other things influenced these too, and, at least in the early modern and
modern period, there were quite a few places that managed to avoid colonialism. These
include China, Iran, Japan, Nepal and Thailand amongst others, and there is a great deal
of variation in development outcomes within these countries, not to mention the great
variation within Europe itself. This raises the question of how important, quantitatively,
European colonialism was, compared to other factors. Acemoglu, Johnson and
Robinson (2001) calculate that, according to their estimates, differences in economic
institutions account for about two-thirds of the differences in income per-capita in the
world. At the same time Acemoglu, et al. (2002) show that, on their own, historical
settler mortality and indigenous population density in 1500 explain around 30% of
the variation in economic institutions in the world today. If historical urbanisation in
1500, which can also explain variation in the nature of colonial societies, is added, this
increases to over 50% of the variation. If this is right, then a third of income inequality
in the world today can be explained by the varying impact of European colonialism on
different societies. A big deal.
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That colonialism shaped the historical institutions of colonies might be obviously
plausible. For example, we know that, in Perú of the 1570s, the Spanish Viceroy
Francisco de Toledo set up a huge system of forced labour to mine the silver of Potosí.
But this system, the Potosí mita, was abolished in the 1820s, when Perú and Bolivia
became independent. To claim that such an institution, or, more broadly, the institutions
created by colonial powers all over the world, influence development today, is to make
a claim about how colonialism influenced the political economy of these societies in a
way which led these institutions to either directly persist, or to leave a path dependent
legacy. The coerced labour of indigenous peoples lasted directly up until at least the
1952 Bolivian Revolution, when the system known as pongueaje was abolished. More
generally, Acemoglu and Robinson (2012, Chapters 11 and 12) and Dell (2010) discuss
many mechanisms via which this could have taken place.
Finally, it is worth observing that our empirical findings have important implications
for alterative theories of comparative development. Some argue that geographical
differences are dominant in explaining long-run patterns of development. In
contradistinction, we showed that once the role of institutions is accounted for,
geographical factors are not correlated with development outcomes. The fact that, for
instance, there is a correlation between latitude and geography, is not indicative of a
causal relationship. It is simply driven by the fact that European colonialism created
a pattern of institutions that is correlated with latitude. Once this is controlled for,
geographical variables play no causal role. Others argue that cultural differences are
paramount in driving development. We found no role at all for cultural differences
measured in several ways. First, the religious composition of different populations.
Second, as we have emphasised, the identity of the colonial power. Third, the fraction
of the population of a country of European descent. It is true, of course, that the United
States and Canada filled up with Europeans, but in our argument this was an outcome
of the fact that they had good institutions. It is not the numerical dominance of people
of European descent today that drives development.
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References
Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial
Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”, American
Economic Review, 91, 1369-1401.
Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson (2002), “Reversal of Fortune:
Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution”,
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 1231-1294.
Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson (2005), “The Rise of Europe:
Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change and Economic Growth”, American Economic
Review, 95, 546-579.
Acemoglu, Daron and James A. Robinson (2012), Why Nations Fail, New York: New
York.
Dell, Melissa (2010), “The Persistent Effects of Peru’s Mining Mita”, Econometrica,
78, 1863-1903.
Putnam, Robert H. (with Robert Leonardi and Raffaella Y. Nanetti ) (1994) Making
Democracy Work, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
About the authors
Daron Acemoglu is Charles P. Kindleberger Professor of Applied Economics in
the Department of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has
received a BA in economics at the University of York, 1989, M.Sc. in mathematical
economics and econometrics at the London School of Economics, 1990, and Ph.D.
in economics at the London School of Economics in 1992. He is an elected fellow of
the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society, the European
Economic Association, and the Society of Labor Economists.
He has received numerous awards and fellowships, including the inaugural T. W. Shultz
Prize from the University of Chicago in 2004, the inaugural Sherwin Rosen Award for
outstanding contribution to labor economics in 2004, the Distinguished Science Award
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87
from the Turkish Sciences Association in 2006, and the John von Neumann Award
from Rajk College, Budapest in 2007. He was also awarded the John Bates Clark Medal
in 2005, given every two years to the best economist in the United States under the age
of 40 by the American Economic Association, and holds an Honorary Doctorate from
the University of Utrecht. His research interests include political economy, economic
development and growth, human capital theory, growth theory, innovation, search
theory, network economics and learning.
James Robinson is a Professor at the University of Chicago, Harris School of Public
Policy, and a Research Fellow at the NBER and CEPR. Professor Robinson studied
economics at the London School of Economics, the University of Warwick and Yale
University. He previously taught in the Department of Economics at the University
of Melbourne, the University of Southern California, the Departments of Economics
and Political Science at the University of California at Berkeley and before moving to
Chicago was Wilbur A. Cowett Professor of Government at Harvard University.
His main research interest s are in comparative economic and political development and
he is currently conducting research in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, the
Philippines, Sierra Leone, and in Colombia where he has taught for many years during
the summer at the University of the Andes in Bogotá.
89
8 Legal origins
Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer,and Robert Vishny Dartmouth College, Tuck School of Business; EDHEC Business School; Harvard University, Department of Economics; Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
The history of conquest and colonisation has left a profound impact on the culture
and institutions of affected countries. Perhaps the most obvious example of this is
language. People in the United States speak the language of their coloniser, Britain;
people in South American speak Spanish, with the exception of the Brazilians, who
speak the language of their coloniser, Portugal. Another obvious example is religion:
South Americans are Catholic, thanks to many forced conversions; North Africans are
Moslem, for the same reason. A less obvious example is sport: people play soccer in
French Africa and South America, as they do in France and Spain; but they play rugby
in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand, as they do in the UK. The Cubans, long
under profound American political and economic influence, still play baseball, despite
over half-a-century of anti-American rule.
Perhaps the more economically relevant example of such transplantation is provided
by a country’s laws, particularly its commercial laws. Countries colonised by the UK
typically have laws significantly influenced by those of England; countries colonised
by France, Spain, and Portugal have laws influenced by their respective colonisers.
Spain and Portugal themselves have laws heavily influenced by those of France, which
they inherited from the Napoleonic conquest. Sometimes such legal transplantation
takes the simple form of the copying of laws; other times the influence is less direct,
driven by commonality of language and the training of lawyers and politicians, which
often took place in the colonising country or at universities it established in its colonies.
These patterns of conquest and colonisation created so-called legal families of laws
substantially influenced by the origin countries. England and its colonies, including the
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US, are part of the common-law family; France, Spain, Portugal and their colonies are
part of the French civil-law tradition. There are also less widely spread but distinctive
Scandinavian, German, and – fortunately disappearing – socialist legal traditions. None
of these legal traditions determine the laws of countries that belong to them completely,
and there is clear evidence of legal change, evolution, and reform, but legal origins
nonetheless exert a substantial influence for centuries. Figure 1 illustrates the spread of
legal traditions around the world.
Figure 1. The distribution of legal origin
Legal Origins = English = French = German = Scandinavian = Socialist
What is perhaps most interesting for an economist is that legal traditions exhibit
distinctive formal features as well as substantive approaches to how the law regulates
economic life. At the formal level, the common law is formed by appellate judges, who
establish precedents by solving specific legal disputes. Dispute resolution tends to be
adversarial rather than inquisitorial. Judicial independence from both the executive
and the legislature is central. The civil law tradition dates back in its formal features to
Roman law, and spread through Continental Europe after Roman law was rediscovered
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during the Middle Ages in Italy. It uses statutes and comprehensive codes as primary
means of ordering legal material, and relies heavily on legal scholars to ascertain and
formulate rules. Dispute resolution tends to be inquisitorial rather than adversarial.
Judicial independence is not as big an issue.
As legal scholars have long recognised, the differences in legal traditions are not
merely formal. The common-law tradition tends to be less interventionist and more
supportive of private economic arrangements. The civil-law tradition tends to be more
dirigiste, and more focused on the state constraining such arrangements. In the words
of one legal scholar, civil law is ‘policy implementing’ while common law is ‘dispute
resolving’ (Damaška 1986). In the words of another, French civil law embraces
‘socially-conditioned private contracting’, in contrast to common law’s support for
‘unconditioned private contracting’ (Pistor 2006). These are profound historically-
shaped features of the stance of the law, which, through transplantation, have continued
to run in legal families.
A critical feature of legal transplantation that makes it helpful for investigating the
effects of laws on economic outcomes is that, like conquest and colonisation themselves,
it is largely involuntary. Although, in a few cases, such as Russia in the 19th century or
Japan after the Meiji restoration, a country borrows commercial laws purely voluntarily,
in most cases, such as those described above, the transplantation is either forced or is a
by-product of a forced political change. As a consequence, one can think of it as largely
exogenous, and examine its economic and social consequences.
In light of this history, it is perhaps not surprising that legal families often exhibit
substantively different legal rules and approaches, which then have a significant
influence on economic outcomes. In a pair of papers that we wrote 20 years ago (La
Porta et al. 1997, 1998), we applied this approach to corporate law. We found, consistent
with the broad view of the stance of the law, that common-law countries are more
protective of outside investors, including both creditors and shareholders, than civil-
law countries, while the latter tend to be more protective of insiders and to give outside
investors fewer rights. These differences are manifested in the many specific legal
rules which we summarised by creating indices of shareholder and creditor protection.
Most importantly, we showed that these quantitative measures of investor protection
are associated with indicators of financial development. Corporate ownership is more
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dispersed, both debt and equity markets are larger, and dividend payouts and corporate
valuations are higher in common- than in civil-law countries (La Porta et al. 1997,
1998, 1999, 2000, 2002). Legal origins affect legal rules, legal rules affect investor
protection, and investor protection affects financial structure.
Since these papers were written, a significant literature has revisited these findings.
Some of our measures of investor protection were correctly criticised, and we revised
and extended them (e.g., La Porta et al. 2006, Djankov et al. 2008). There was a question
over whether the patterns of financial development we have identified have also existed
historically, and the best available evidence indicates that they have (Hildebrand 2016).
Some scholars argued that our legal origins are merely proxies for politics, with civil
law standing in for social democracy. In the data, the patterns we described hold for
dictatorships as well as democracies, rejecting this political interpretation (La Porta et
al. 2008).
We have also investigated whether the procedural and organisational differences
between the legal systems stressed by legal scholars can be quantified. We have found
that, indeed, courts in common-law countries tend to be more independent from the
executive branch than courts in civil-law countries, with longer judicial tenure and
greater limits on firing judges (La Porta et al. 2004). Common-law legal procedure
is also less formalised, with fewer written or formal steps necessary to move disputes
forward, fewer filings, and more limited possibilities of appeal. Moreover, these
procedural differences translate into substantive outcomes: other things being equal,
it generally takes longer and costs more to evict a non-paying tenant, or to collect a
bounced cheque, in a civil- than a common-law country (Djankov et al. 2003). The
quantitative evidence is broadly consistent with the broad perspective of comparative
law.
A further question one can ask is whether differences in legal origins also show up
not just in legal rules, but also in patterns of government regulation. We investigated
this question together with Simeon Djankov of the World Bank, who went on to create
the extremely influential World Bank Doing Business Report, based on our findings.
Thanks to the cooperation with the World Bank, we were able to assemble large data
sets on government regulations affecting business activity in many countries. We began
by examining the regulation of entry of new firms, by calculating the number of formal
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93
steps, and the minimum time and cost it would take to open a business legally (Djankov
et al. 2002). We also looked at government regulations of labour markets (Botero et al.
2004). Here as well, consistent with the comparative law approach, we found evidence
of much heavier regulation in civil- than in common-law countries. The evidence
on regulations confirmed the fundamental differences in how legal systems approach
social control of economic life.
We also found that these regulatory differences correlate with economic outcomes. For
example, countries with fewer entry regulations tend to have less corruption, which
is typically a by-product of a heavy regulatory stance. They also, not surprisingly,
have more official employment, all else being equal. Countries with heavier labour
regulations, not surprisingly, exhibit higher unemployment rates – especially among the
young — and lower rates of labour force participating. Here as well, the broad stance
of the law appears to influence important economic outcomes.
Given this evidence, one might ask whether legal origin is destiny, and whether legal
rules and regulations are permanently fixed given a country’s tradition. The answer to
that is a most decisive ‘no’. It is certainly the case that in some core areas of law, such
as legal procedure, we have found very slow change and a huge amount of persistence
(Balas et al. 2010). In other areas, however, there has been a lot of change. The
extraordinary popularity of the World Bank Doing Business Report around the world
has prompted many countries to revise some of their most burdensome regulations,
particularly in the field of regulation of entry. In fact, some countries, such as Georgia,
sought to attract foreign investors based on their high ‘Doing Business’ scores and
massive regulatory reforms, while others, such as New Zealand, ran political campaigns
based on their outstanding scores.
In sum, there is little doubt at this point that legal traditions are associated with
distinctive formal and substantive approaches to solving legal problems, and that
these approaches are associated with some distinctive economic outcomes. How large
the substantive consequences are remains an open question. In our work, we have
strenuously stayed away from claiming that legal traditions and legal rules influence
economic growth. This observation is part of a more general proposition that the only
consistent determinant of long-run growth is human capital and even major institutional
differences, such as dictatorship versus democracy, are not evidently correlated with
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growth. But if one is interested in outcomes that are a bit less aggregate – including
financial development, the role of the formal sector, or unemployment – then the
significance of legal traditions in shaping these outcomes is much clearer in the data
References
Balas, Aron, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer (2009),
“The Divergence of Legal Procedures”, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy,
1(2): 136–62.
Botero, Juan C., Simeon Djankov, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and
Andrei Shleifer (2004), “The Regulation of Labor”, Quarterly Journal of Economics,
119(4): 1339–82.
Damaška, Mirjan R (1986), The Faces of Justice and State Authority: A Comparative
Approach to the Legal Process, New Haven and London: Yale University Press.
Djankov, Simeon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer
(2002), “The Regulation of Entry”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(1): 1–37.
Djankov, Simeon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer
(2003), “Courts”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(2): 453–517.
Djankov, Simeon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer
(2008), “The Law and Economics of Self-Dealing”, Journal of Financial Economics,
88(3): 430-65.
Hildebrand, Nikolaus (2016), Legal Origins and Politics. The History of Financial
Development and Structure in the 19th and 20th Centuries, Mimeo. MIT.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Andrei
Shleifer (2004), “Judicial Checks and Balances”, Journal of Political Economy, 112(2):
445–70.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer (1999), “Corporate
Ownership around the World”, Journal of Finance, 54(2): 471–517.
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La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer (2006), “What
Works in Securities Laws?”, Journal of Finance, 61(1): 1–32.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer (2008), “The
Economic Consequences of Legal Origins”, Journal of Economic Literature, 46(2):
285-332.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny
(1997), “Legal Determinants of External Finance”, Journal of Finance, 52(3): 1131–50.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny
(1998), “Law and Finance”, Journal of Political Economy, 106(6): 1113–55.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny
(2000), “Agency Problems and Dividend Policies around the World”, Journal of
Finance, 55(1): 1–33.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny
(2002), “Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation”, Journal of Finance, 57(3):
1147–70.
Pistor, Katharina (2006), “Legal Ground Rules in Coordinated and Liberal Market
Economies”, In Corporate Governance in Context: Corporations, States, and Markets
in Europe, Japan, and the US, ed. Klaus J. Hopt, Eddy Wymeersch, Hideki Kanda, and
Harald Baum, 249-280. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.
About the authors
Rafael La Porta is the Noble Foundation Professor of Finance at the Tuck School
at Dartmouth. He received his PhD in economics from Harvard in 1994 and was on
the Harvard faculty from that time until he joined Tuck in 2003. Professor La Porta’s
research has focused on issues of investor protection and corporate governance across the
world, an area known as “law and finance.” He is an expert on cross-country differences
in laws and practice pertaining to investor protection and how those differences cause
economies, stock markets, and firms’ financing practices to vary.
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Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes is Professor of Finance and Law at EDHEC Business
School in France and Head of the Fund Governance Research Programme at the
EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre. He also holds a joint Chair in
Law and Finance at Paris School of Economics and EDHEC, and has the honorary title
of Distinguished Professor of Finance at the University of Amsterdam. Previously he
was a professor at the universities of Harvard, Yale, Amsterdam, and the Ecole Normale
Superieur in Paris. His research interests and main publications fall in the areas of
International Corporate Finance and Financial Markets, Legal Reform and Privatization.
He has been an advisor on these topics to several governments, international institutions
and corporations. He has many publications in top finance and economics journals
and has published two books on Investor Protection and the Benefits of Privatization
in Latin America. Among other distinctions, he received Harvard’s Wells Prize for the
Best Dissertation in Economics (1995), the Brattle Prize for distinguished paper in the
Journal of Finance of the American Finance Association (1999), and the Jensen Prize
for the best papers published in the Journal of Financial Economics in the Areas of
Corporate Finance and Organizations (2000)..
A Professor of Economics at Harvard University, Andrei Shleifer holds an undergraduate
degree from Harvard and a Ph.D. from MIT. Before coming to Harvard in 1991,
he has taught at Princeton and the Chicago Business School. Shleifer has worked
in the areas of comparative corporate governance, law and finance, behavioral
finance, as well as institutional economics. He has published six books, including
The Grabbing Hand (with Robert Vishny), and Inefficient Markets: An Introduction
to Behavioral Finance, as well as over a hundred articles. Shleifer is an Editor of the
Quarterly Journal of Economics, and a fellow of the Econometric Society, the American
Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Finance Association.
In 1999, Shleifer won the John Bates Clark medal of the American Economic
Association. According to RePEc, Shleifer is the most cited economist in the world.
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97
Robert Vishny is the Myron S. Scholes Distinguished Service Professor of
Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He was the Eric J.
Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago
Booth School of Business. He is also a NBER Research Associate.
He received his A.B. with highest distinction (economics, mathematics, and philosophy)
from the University of Michigan in 1981 and Ph.D. (Economics) from MIT in 1985.
His area of expertise is behavioural and institutional finance. Amongst the areas that
Vishny studied in the past were the market for corporate control, corporate governance
around the world, privatisation and the role of government in the economy, investor
sentiment, and the limits of arbitrage.
99
9 The European origins of economic development
William Easterly and Ross Levine New York University; UC Berkeley, Haas School of Business1
Countries have followed divergent paths of economic development since European
colonisation. Some former colonies, such as the Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Malawi, and
Tanzania, have experienced little economic development over the last few centuries,
with current per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels of about $2 per day.
Others, including Australia, Canada, and the United States, are among the richest
countries in the world today, with per capita GDP levels of about $140 per day. Others
fall along the spectrum between these extremes.
To explain these divergent paths, many researchers emphasise that the European share
of the population during colonisation shaped national rates of economic growth through
several mechanisms. For example, Engerman and Sokoloff (1997) (ES) and Acemoglu
et al. (2001, 2002) (AJR) stress that European colonisation had enduring effects on
political institutions. They argue that, when Europeans encountered natural resources
with lucrative international markets and did not find the land, climate, and disease
environment suitable for large-scale settlement, only a few Europeans settled and
created authoritarian political institutions to extract those resources. The institutions
created by Europeans in these ‘extractive colonies’ impeded long-run development.
But, when Europeans found land, climate, and disease environments that were suitable
for smaller-scale agriculture, they settled, forming ‘settler colonies’ with political
institutions that fostered development.
1 This discussion is based on William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2016, “The European origins of economic development”,
Journal of Economic Growth 21(3): 225-257.
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Other researchers focus less on what Europeans found and more on what Europeans
brought. ES and Glaeser et al. (2004) (GLLS) argue that Europeans brought human
capital and human capital creating institutions that shape long-run economic growth.
According to this human capital view, European settlers directly and immediately added
human capital skills to the colonies and also had long-run effects on human capital
accumulation. These long-run effects emerge because human capital disseminates
throughout the population over generations and it takes time to create, expand, and
improve schools. Furthermore, this human capital view suggests that having a larger
share of Europeans during colonisation could facilitate human capital accumulation
across the entire population, both because it would increase interactions among people
of European and non-European descent and because it might accelerate expanded
access to schools.
These views yield two testable implications: (1) the proportion of Europeans during
colonisation will be positively related to the democratic political institutions and
human capital development that yield higher levels of economic development today,
and (2) the proportion of Europeans during colonisation will matter more for economic
development than the proportion of the population of European descent today because
of (a) the enduring effects of political institutions and (b) the slow dissemination
of human capital and creation of well-functioning schools. Although the political
institutions and human capital views emphasise different mechanisms, they provide
closely aligned predictions about the impact of colonial European settlement on current
economic development.
Other researchers, either explicitly or implicitly, highlight additional mechanisms
through which European migration had positive or negative effects on development.
North (1990) argues that the British brought comparatively strong political and
legal institutions, which were more conducive to economic development than the
institutions brought by other European nations. Spolaore and Wacziarg (2009) stress
that the degree to which the genetic heritage of a colonial population was similar to
that of the economies at the technological frontier positively affected the diffusion of
technology and thus economic development. Putterman and Weil (2010) and Chanda et al.
(2014 ) emphasise that the experiences with statehood and agriculture of the ancestors
of people currently living within countries help to explain cross-country differences
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in economic success. Comin et al. (2011) find that the ancient technologies of the
ancestors of today’s populations help predict current levels of per capita income. In all
of these papers, the ancestral nature of a population – which was reshaped by European
colonisation – helps account for cross-country differences in economic development
today.
Although this considerable body of research emphasises the effect of European
settlement during colonisation on subsequent rates of economic development, what
has been missing in the empirical literature is the key intermediating variable: colonial
European settlement. While researchers, including AJR, have examined the European
share of the population in 1900, this is well after the colonial period in several countries,
including virtually all of the Western Hemisphere. To the best of our knowledge,
researchers have not directly measured colonial European settlement and examined its
association with current economic development.
In this paper, we construct a new database on the European share of the population
during colonisation and use it to examine the historical determinants of colonial
European settlement and the relation between colonial European settlement and
current economic development.2 Although we do not isolate the specific mechanisms
linking colonial European settlement with current levels of economic development,
as emphasised in each of the individual theories discussed above, we do assess the
core empirical predictions emerging from the literature on the relationship between
European settlement and economic development: namely that (1) the proportion of
Europeans during colonisation is positively related to economic development today and
(2) the proportion of Europeans during colonisation is more important, in accounting
for cross-country differences in current economic development, than the proportion of
the population of European descent today.
We first discover that colonial European settlement is strongly, positively associated with
economic development today. As illustrated in Figure 1, countries with a higher share
of Europeans in the colonial population tend to have higher levels of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) per capita today. This relationship holds true, after controlling for many
2 The data and programs used to conduct these analyses are available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10887-
016-9130-y.
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
102
features of the areas and peoples colonised by the Europeans, and for which European
country colonised the area. Our results also paint a positive picture of the development
impact of minority colonial European settlements, about which the previous literature
was ambiguous. We also show that the relationship between economic development
today and the proportion of Europeans during colonisation weakens markedly when
controlling for either current educational attainment or government quality. This
finding is consistent with the view that human capital and political institutions are
intermediating mechanisms through which European settlement shaped current
economic development.
Figure 1. Distribution of colonial European settlement and median current income
Afghanistan Angola Bahrain
Bangladesh Benin
Bhutan Burkina Faso
Burundi Cambodia Cameroon
Chad C Afr Rep
China Comoros
Cote d'Ivoire Eq Guinea
Eritrea Ethiopia
Ghana Gambia, The
Guinea Guinea-Bissau
Hong Kong India
Iran Indonesia
Iraq Japan Jordan Kenya
Korea, Rep. Kuwait
Lao PDR Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya
Macao, China Malaysia
Mali Mauritania Micronesia Mongolia
Nepal Niger
Nigeria Oman
Pakistan Papua N Guinea
Qatar Philippines
Rwanda Saudi Arabia Seychelles
Sierra Leone Singapore Sri Lanka
Sudan Syria
Tanzania
Togo Thailand
Tonga Turkey Uganda
UAE Uzbekistan
Vietnam Yemen
Botswana Cape Verde
Egypt Fiji
Gabon Madagascar
Malawi Mozambique
Senegal Sao Tome and P
Swaziland
Chile Guatemala
Haiti Nicaragua
Peru Suriname Zambia
Zimbabwe
Bolivia
Guyana El Salvador
Mexico Honduras
Morocco
Belize Brazil
Trinidad and Tobago
Colombia Djibouti Ecuador
Paraguay Tunisia
Venezuela
Algeria Grenada Jamaica
South Africa Mauritius St. Vincent and the G Namibia
Argentina Antigua and Barbuda
Australia Barbados Canada
Costa Rica Dominica
Dom Republic New Zealand
Panama
St. Lucia St. Kitts and Nevis
69
12
8 7 8 5
2
13
United States 7 7.
5 8
8. 5
9 9.
5 10
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
M ed
ia n
C ur
re nt
In co
m e
(in lo
gs )
N um
be r
of c
ou nt
rie s
[0, 0.005) [0.125, 1]
Number of countries Median Income (right axis)
[0.005, 0.025) [0.025, 0.045) [0.045, 0.065) [0.065, 0.085) [0.085, 0.105) [0.105, 0.125)
European Share at Colonisation and Median Current Income
Note: This figure shows the number of countries classified in groups according to their European shares at colonisation (left axis). The median current income (in logs) for each group is also reported (right axis).
Second, we find that the European share of the population during colonisation is
more strongly associated with economic development today than the percentage of
the population today that is of European descent. This finding is consistent with the
view that Europeans brought growth-promoting characteristics – such as institutions,
human capital, technology, connections with international markets, and cultural norms
– that had enduring effects on economic development. This result de-emphasises the
The European origins of economic development
William Easterly and Ross Levine
103
importance of Europeans, per se, and instead emphasises the impact of what Europeans
brought to economies during the colonial period.
To clarify our contribution, it is crucial to emphasise what we do not do. We do not assess
the welfare implications of European colonisation. Europeans often cruelly oppressed,
enslaved, murdered, and even committed genocide against, indigenous populations, as
well as enslaving captives brought from Africa (see Acemoglu and Robinson 2012,
for compelling examples). Thus, GDP per capita today does not measure the welfare
effects of European colonisation; it only provides a measure of economic activity today,
within a particular geographical area. Although there is no question about European
oppression and cruelty during colonisation, there are questions about the net effect
of European colonisation on economic development today. We have confirmed the
strong association between colonial European settlement and comparative economic
development. Indeed, we calculate that 40% of all development that has happened
outside Europe is associated with this colonial European settlement. Our findings are a
suggestive confirmation of the deep historical roots of today’s development outcomes,
as well as the importance of the dissemination of institutions, human capital, and
technology across borders.
References
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial Origins of
Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”, American Economic Review,
91 (5): 1369-1401.
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson (2002), “Reversal of Fortune: Geography
and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution”, Quarterly
Journal of Economics 117(4): 1231-1294.
Acemoglu, D. and J. Robinson (2012), Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power,
Prosperity, and Poverty, Crown Publishers: New York.
Chanda, A, C. J Cook and L Putterman (2014), “Persistence of Fortune: Accounting for
Population Movements, There Was No Post-Columbian Reversal”, American Economic
Journal: Macroeconomics, 6(3): 1-28.
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
104
Comin, D., W. Easterly, and E. Gong (2010), “Was the Wealth of Nations Determined in
1000 B.C.?”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(3): 65–97.
Engerman, S. and K. Sokoloff (1997), “Factor Endowments, Institutions, and Differential
Paths of Growth among New World Economies: A View from Economic Historians of
the United States”, in How Latin America Fell Behind, Haber (ed), Stanford: Stanford
University Press: 260–304
Glaeser, E., R. La Porta, F. Lopez-de-Silanes and A. Shleifer (2004), “Do Institutions
Cause Growth?”, Journal of Economic Growth, 9(3): 271-303.
North D. (1990), Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance, UK:
Cambridge University Press.
Putterman, L. and D. Weil (2010), “Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long Run
Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality”, Quarterly Journal of Economics,
125(4): 1627-1682
Spolaore, E. and R. Wacziarg (2009), “The Diffusion of Development”, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 124 (2): 469-529.
The European origins of economic development
William Easterly and Ross Levine
105
About the authors
William Easterly is Professor of Economics at New York University, joint with Africa
House, and Co-Director of NYU›s Development Research Institute. He has been Co-
Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, Associate Editor of the Quarterly
Journal of Economics, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, the Journal
of Comparative Economics and the Journal of Economic Growth. Foreign Policy
magazine named him one of the world’s Top 100 Public Intellectuals in 2008 and
2009. Thomson Reuters listed him as one of Highly Cited Researchers of 2014. He is a
Research Associate of NBER, and senior fellow at BREAD.
He received his BA from Bowling Green State University and his PhD in Economics at
MIT, after which he worked for 16 years as a Research Economist at the World Bank.
The author of many scholarly journal articles, he also authored the books The Tyranny
of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor (2014), The
White Man’s Burden: How the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill
and So Little Good (Penguin, 2006), and The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists›
Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics (MIT, 2001).
Ross Levine is the Willis H. Booth Chair in Banking and Finance at the University of
California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Milken
Institute, Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a member
of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the Advisory Scientific Committee of the
European Systemic Risk Board, an Associate Editor for both the Journal of Financial
Intermediation and the Journal of Economic Growth, and a frequent consultant at the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Ross Levine received his doctorate from UCLA and worked at the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System and the World Bank. He then taught at the University of
Virginia, the University of Minnesota, and Brown University. His research focuses on
the linkages between financial regulations, the operation of financial systems, and the
functioning of the economy.
107
10 On the long-run effects of colonial legacies. Evidence from small islands
James Feyrer and Bruce Sacerdote Dartmouth College; Dartmouth College and NBER
The legacy of colonial history is readily apparent in language, culture, and modern
military and trade alliances. This has led many economists to look at the relationship
between colonialism and modern institutions and economic outcomes. In other chapters
of this volume, La Porta et al. look at the impact of colonial legal systems; Acemoglu
and Robinson examine the impact of the form of colonisation (extractive versus heavy
settlement by Europeans); Michalopoulos and Papaioannou examine the mixed legacy
of colonial history and tribal affiliation; and Iyer examines the impact of variations in
direct colonial rule in India.
As always in the cross-country growth literature, it is difficult to establish causality.
Most colonisation was not a random event. Countries established colonies in order to
take advantage of natural resources or because the land was favourable for agriculture.
These advantages may play a direct role in modern outcomes. In Feyrer and Sacerdote
(2009) we examine the role that colonial history plays in explaining income per capita
differences between countries. We take a novel approach, by confining our analysis to
a newly assembled data set on islands. Reading historical accounts from the Age of
Discovery, it is apparent that there is a strong random component to the discovery and
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
108
colonisation of islands. Many islands in the pacific were unknown to Europeans until
the late 1700s. It was not until the voyages of Cook (1768-1779) that a complete and
accurate map of the world was available. Some colonies were founded almost entirely
by chance – to take one example, the infamous case of the Mutiny on the Bounty led
to the discovery and colonisation of Rarotonga, Kadavu, Pitcairn, and Norfolk islands.
Discoveries during the colonisation era were made by sailing ships, which had a limited
ability to sail into the wind. This adds a distinctly non-random element to the process of
discovery. Islands that were located in corridors with strong east-west prevailing winds
were more likely to be found, revisited, and colonised, than islands that were harder
to reach due to prevailing wind patterns. The majority of the east-to-west colonial-
Spanish ship traffic in the Pacific followed very closely the route initiated by Magellan,
because his voyage was largely dictated by the patterns of the trade winds. Islands
along this route tended to be colonised earlier – since their wind patterns do not have a
direct impact on income today, we can use this variation as an instrument to predict the
intensity of colonial activity for an island.
Figure1. GDP per capita versus years of colonialism
Antig
Puerto Rico oacaruC erianoBAndros, North
badosAnguillaSt MartiMonBa
Bermuda
Cuba ola DOMSt VincentHispani
East Falkland d CaymanTortolaGran
adaMauritiusGren
Hispaniola HTI
Jamaica
uaGrande Terre errat
SabaSint MaartinMartiniqueSt Eustatius
St Kittsts rn
St Helena
St Lucia
Trinidad T
Dominica tte ahnuC ad natsirT noisnecsA
St John
LifouSt CroixNew Caledonia St Thomas
Tutuila
R
Ma Atiu
Penrhyn
Man Mau AitutNauMitiaPalm
ongaRakahanga
Raroton
ti ne loT tapuFefanfuMo
rukero akiihiki earsoK paYerstonPohnpei
Futuna
Tarawa
atauit
ngaiaKadavuMajuro
Niue
Guam
Saipan
gaOreor
Ne Luzon
ihaT haT averagnaM uturu
w BritainPukapukaMalaita
T Funa Efate
Hawaii
Grande Comore
Huvadu Mayo
TOReunion
North Caicos Mahe
6 Lo
g of
G D
P P
er C
ap ita
7 8
9 10
11
0 1 2 4 5 63 Number of Centuries Colony
Blue Circles == Atlantic Ocean, Red triangles == Pacific Ocean, Green squares == Indian Ocean.
On the long-run effects of colonial legacies. evidence from small islands
James Feyrer and Bruce Sacerdote
109
The use of islands also allows us to expand the sample that is traditionally used in
studying colonial outcomes. There are many islands with varied histories and so we
have more experiments with which to work. Using a variety of historical sources, we
assembled a data set, detailing the years that each island was a colony and the identity
of the coloniser. Our outcome measures are output per capita and infant mortality in
2000. Individual islands in a group are included if the islands have a distinct colonial
history or distinct modern outcomes, compared to their island group. For example, Yap
and Pohnpei, in the Federated States of Micronesia, have different colonial histories
and different modern outcomes.
Figure 2. Years of colonialism versus easterly vector of wind
0 1
2 3
4 5
N um
be r
of C
en tu
rie s
C ol
on y
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 2 3 4 5-2 -1 0 1 east-west vector of wind
Blue Circles == Atlantic Ocean, Red triangles == Pacific Ocean, Green squares == Indian Ocean.
Figure 1 shows our basic result. Islands that were colonised for longer periods of time
have higher GDP per capita. Figure 2 shows the relationship between wind speed (our
instrument) and colonial tenure. The east-west vector of wind strongly predicts the
length of colonial rule. Table 1 shows these results more formally and includes both
OLS and IV results. In all regressions we control for latitude and island area. We also
include dummies for whether the island is in the Pacific or the Atlantic (the Indian
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
110
Ocean is the excluded group). The latitude and area controls are significant in all
our specifications but do not have any impact on the main variable of interest, which
is the number of centuries as a colony. The ocean dummies are, at most, marginally
significant.
We find that longer colonial rule is associated with higher GDP per capita. 1 Each
additional century as a colony results in a per capita GDP increase of almost 50%
(Column 1). The IV results suggest an even larger effect, with each 100 years resulting
in a 70 percent increase in per capita GDP. We see similar results for infant mortality.
While much of the identification is being driven by the Pacific Ocean, point estimates
with an Atlantic sample are not significantly different than the full sample.
The number of years as a colony is a function of two dates. First, when did an island
initially become a colony? And second, when did the island become independent? Our
IV strategy will be capable of identifying random variation in the first date, but will
not be informative about the second. In columns (3) and (4) we break our ‘centuries
a colony’ variable into start and end dates. We also include a dummy variable for
whether the island remained a colony in 2000, the year for which we measure GDP per
capita. We find that the start date of colonial rule is driving much of our result. Earlier
colonisation dates predict higher output. A later final year as a colony is also associated
with higher income, though this is not statistically significant. Finally, islands that still
had a colonial relationship in 2000 have significantly higher GDP per capita in 2000.
This set of countries includes islands, such as Guam, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda, that
have received significant transfers from their colonial rulers in the modern period.
The similarity of the OLS and IV results is consistent with our initial conjecture of the
random nature of colonisation. If we can assume that island colonisation (in contrast
to continental colonisation) was not significantly driven by island characteristics, we
can explore several hypotheses in OLS, where we cannot pursue an IV strategy. For
example, we are interested in whether the timing of colonisation matters.
1 As we emphasise in our original paper, we are only measuring impacts on GDP for current inhabitants and are in no way
attempting to balance or justify these impacts against the devastation or extinction of the island’s original inhabitants.
On the long-run effects of colonial legacies. evidence from small islands
James Feyrer and Bruce Sacerdote
111
T ab
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. O
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F o r
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1 2
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t he
e as
t- w
es t
w in
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fo r
ea ch
i sl
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R ob
us t
st an
da rd
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or s
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es .
S ta
nd ar
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ev el
.
* s
ig ni
fi ca
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; **
s ig
ni fi
ca nt
a t
1%
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
112
Table 2, column (1) shows the results where we separately include years as a colony
before 1700, years between 1700 and 1900, and years after 1900. We don’t have
enough instruments to separately identify these different periods, so we will rely on
OLS. We find that the years between 1700 and 1900 are doing most of the work in
our main result. Once we control for the later years, being a colony before 1700 is
no longer associated with higher GDP per capita. We suspect that this is due to the
changing nature of colonialism and of European institutions, both before and after the
Enlightenment.
Table 2. The effect of colonialism by colonising countries
(1) (2) Log GDP per
Capita Log GDP per
Capita Centuries a Colony before 1700 -0.097
(0.221) Centuries a Colony 1700-1900 0.875
(0.233)** Centuries a Colony after 1900 -0.354
(0.975) Remained a Colony in 2000 1.070
(0.346)** Centuries US 2.145
(0.394)** Centuries Dutch 0.660
(0.117)** Centuries British 0.512
(0.155)** Centuries French 0.586
(0.144)** Centuries Spanish 0.204
(0.089)* Centuries Portuguese -0.813
(0.169)** Centuries German 1.332
(1.199) Centuries Japanese -1.170
(0.781)
Constant 6.218 5.849 (0.759)** (0.636)**
Observations 81 81 R-squared 0.693 0.645
Regressions include controls for absolute value of latitude, land area, and dummies for island being located in Pacific or Atlantic Ocean. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. Standard errors are clustered at the island group level.
* significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%
On the long-run effects of colonial legacies. evidence from small islands
James Feyrer and Bruce Sacerdote
113
The very earliest colonies were motivated by commerce and religion. The 1494
Treaty of Tordesillas split the globe at 46° W longitude, into Spanish and Portuguese
spheres. Portugal controlled to the east of this line (from Africa to Indonesia) and Spain
controlled to the west (the New World and the Pacific). The main goal of Magellan’s
expedition was to find a Spanish route to the Spice Islands, sailing west from Europe.
The secondary goal of the expedition was to convert the natives to Christianity.
These early colonies had few qualms about enslaving the native peoples and forcibly
converting them to Christianity.
Later voyages, like those headed by James Cook, were very much post-enlightenment
affairs. Cook brought scientists and artists along to study and catalogue all that they
found. In stark contrast to Magellan, Cook was concerned about the potential for
harm to native peoples, as they came in contact with Europeans. Many later European
colonies did not enslave the natives and in some cases representative local governments
were established.
A second reason to suspect that post-enlightenment colonisation was different is that
most of the institutions that we associate with successful modern economies simply did
not exist during the earlier period. Democracy, the rule of law, protection of property
rights and other features of modern economies advanced significantly between the
Age of Magellan and the Age of Cook. Our results are consistent with the idea that
being a European colony between 1700 and 1900 allowed for the transmission of those
institutions that appear to be beneficial to modern incomes.
In addition to the timing of colonial rule we might also be interested in whether
different colonisers had different impacts. Table 2, column (2) shows the results where
we separate years as a colony by the identity of the coloniser. Putting the colonisers
in rough order, the figure for years as a colony of the US or Germany has the largest
positive effect, most likely because these countries were much later colonisers. The
positive impact of being a US colony also reflects the relatively high income levels
of the remaining colonies like Guam, American Samoa, and Puerto Rico. Years as a
colony of the Dutch, the British and the French are similar to our main results. Years
as a Spanish colony are still positive, but less so than our main results. Years as a
Portuguese colony have a negative association with modern GDP per capita.
The long economic and political shadow of history -
Volume I. A global view
114
Finally, we can check if our results are suggestive about colonisation in general, by
extending our results to a non-island sample. We start with the set of countries examined
by Acemoglu et al. (discussed in another chapter in this volume) and repeat our island
exercise. Regressing GDP per capita against centuries as a colony we find a significant
and positive relationship with a magnitude of about half of our main results. The
positive relationship is maintained even after controlling for the AJR settler mortality
measure.
In summary, we argue that individual islands provide useful evidence on the causal
effects of institutions on income. In particular, the history of islands suggests that there
is a large random component in both the timing of colonisation and the identity of the
coloniser. The most striking feature of our data set (and the one which we emphasise
here) is that islands with a longer colonial history have a significantly higher modern-
day income. The relationship between colonisation and income is driven mostly by
post-enlightenment colonial activity in the 1700-1900 period. US, Dutch and British
rule are more positively associated with income than Spanish or Portuguese rule. Not
surprisingly, islands that are still held as colonial possessions or overseas territories (e.g.
Bermuda and Puerto Rico) have a higher measured income than politically independent
islands. Overall the islands data set provides a nice opportunity to examine the effects
of political and social history and long standing institutions on current economic
outcomes.
References
Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial
Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”, American
Economic Review 91(5): 1369-401.
Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson (2002), “Reversal of
Fortune: Geography and Development in the Making of the Modern World Income
Distribution”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4), 1231-1294.
Banerjee, Abhijit, and Lakshmi Iyer (2005), “History Institutions and Economic
Performance: The Legacy of Colonial Land Tenure Systems in India”, American
Economic Review 95(4), 1190-1213.
On the long-run effects of colonial legacies. evidence from small islands
James Feyrer and Bruce Sacerdote
115
Feyrer, James and Bruce Sacerdote (2009), “Colonialism and Modern Income: Islands
as Natural Experiments”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol.
91(2), pages 245-262, November 2009.
Hough, Richard (1994), Captain James Cook, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., New
York
Iyer, Lakshmi (1992), “Direct versus Indirect Colonial Rule in India: Long-term
Consequences”, Review of Economics and Statistics 92 (4), 693-713, 2010.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny (1997),
“Legal Determinants of External Finance”, Journal of Finance 52(3), 1131-1150.
La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny
(1998), “Law and Finance”, Journal of Political Economy 106(6), 1113-1155.
Michalopoulos, S. and Papaioannou, E. (2013), “Pre-Colonial Ethnic Institutions and
Contemporary African Development”, Econometrica.
About the authors
Bruce Sacerdote is Richard S. Braddock 1963 Professor in Economics; Chair of
Economics Department at Dartmouth College. He is a Research Associate at the National
Bureau of Ecoconomic Research and has published work on peer group formation,
colonialism and the slave trade, as well as the impact of education on income, health,
and well-being; the effect of relocation after Hurricane Katrina on students’ educational
outcomes; why there are fertility differences across developed countries; the incentives
for criminal activity; and the life chances of adopted children living in different family
environments. Bruce received a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University in 1997.
James Feyrer is an Associate Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College. His
research interests include economic growth, geography, and demographics. Recent
work focuses on using the interaction between changes in technology and geography
to explore economic shocks in trade and resource extraction. He received a B.S. from
Stanford University and an M.A. and Ph.D. from Brown University.
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11 Maritime technology, trade, and economic development. evidence from the first era of trade globalisation
Luigi Pascali Pompeu Fabra University, CAGE and CEPR
Question
The use of the term globalisation has become commonplace in recent years.
However, this surge in interconnection that we observe in the world today is not a
new phenomenon. Between 1820 and 1913, the world experienced an unprecedented
increase in world trade, with a marked acceleration that began in 1870. Increased
global GDP or population cannot simply explain this trade boom. In fact, between 1870
and 1913, the world export-to-GDP ratio increased from 5% to 9%, while per-capita
volumes more than tripled.
What caused this first era of trade globalisation? How did this tremendous increase in
trade affect economic development? Can the first era of trade globalisation explain the
Great Divergence, the process by which the Western countries emerged from the 19th
century as the most powerful and wealthy in the entire world?
Natural experiment
In a recent paper (Pascali, forthcoming), I use a natural experiment of history to answer
these questions and exploit a quasi-random variation in trade costs during the second
half of the 19th century, which was generated through the adoption of the steamship
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by the international shipping industry. Before the steamship, sea routes were shaped by
winds. Feyrer and Sacerdote (2009) show that wind speed and direction were important
factors in the pattern of island colonisation in the Pacific and in the Atlantic Ocean. Trade
routes also used to depend on wind patterns. As an example, consider Figure 1, which
illustrates a series of journeys made by British sailing ships in the 19th century, between
England, Cape of Good Hope and Java, and Figure 2, which depicts the prevailing
sea-surface winds in the world. Winds tend to follow a clockwise pattern in the North
Atlantic; consequently, sailing ships would sail westward from Western Europe, after
traveling south to 30°N latitude and reaching the ‘trade winds’, thus arriving in the
Caribbean, rather than traveling straight to North America. The result is that trade
systems historically tended to follow a triangular pattern between Europe, Africa, the
West Indies and the United States. Furthermore, because in the South Atlantic winds
tend to blow counterclockwise, sailing ships would not sail directly southward to the
Cape of Good Hope; rather, they would first sail southwest towards Brazil and then
move east to the Cape of Good Hope at 30°S latitude.
Figure 1. 15 journeys made by British ships between 1800 and 1860
Note: These journeys were randomly selected from the CLIWOC dataset among all voyages between England and Java comprised in the dataset.
Maritime technology, trade, and economic development. Evidence from the first era of trade globalisation
Luigi Pascali
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The invention and subsequent development of the steamship represents a watershed
event in maritime transport. For the first time, vessels were not at the mercy of the
winds, and trade routes became independent of wind patterns. The steam engine greatly
reduced shipping times, but did so in a disproportionate manner across countries and
trade routes.
These asymmetric changes in shipping times (and related trade costs) across countries
are used, as a natural experiment, to identify the effect of the adoption of the steamship
on trade patterns and volumes and to explore the effect of international trade on
economic development.
Figure 2. Prevailing winds in May (between 2000 and 2002)
Note: direction of wind defined by the direction of the arrow and speed by the length of the arrow.
Findings
Four key findings emerge from the econometric analysis.
First, regressions of bilateral trade on shipping times by both sail and steam vessels,
between 1850 and 1900, reveal that trade patterns were shaped by shipping times under
sail until 1860, by a weighted average of shipping times under sail and steam between
1860 and 1875, and by shipping times under steam thereafter. This result points toward
a very fast adoption and diffusion of the steam technology in the international shipping
industry.
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Second, I provide a rough estimate of the impact of the steamship on world trade
volumes. Figure 3 depicts the negative relationship between the change in the isolation
of the country (measured as the average shipping time from this country to the remainder
of the world) induced by the steamship and the change in trade volumes between 1850
and 1905. The estimated elasticity is surprising large: it implies that the reduction in
shipping times induced by the steam engine is likely to be the main determinant of the
first wave of trade globalisation.
Figure 3. Relation between the log-change in average shipping time from a country
to the remainder of the world (caused by the adoption of the steam engine)
and the log-change in the export-to-GDP ratio between 1850 and 1905.
Third, exploiting quasi-random variation in trade costs, generated by the transition from
sail to steam, I document that the consequences of this trade expansion on development
were not necessarily positive. On a sample of 36 countries, the average impact, in the
short run, of the first wave of trade globalisation was a reduction in per-capita GDP,
population density and urbanisation rates. To illustrate this point, Figure 4 reports the
negative relationship between the change in trade volumes, induced by adoption of the
Maritime technology, trade, and economic development. Evidence from the first era of trade globalisation
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steamship, and the change in per-capita GDP between 1850 and 1905. The finding that
the effect of the first wave of globalisation could be negative on average is surprising.
In a previous study, Williamson (2011) documents a negative correlation between
growth in terms of trade (generated by increased trade) and per-capita GDP growth in
a large set of developing countries between 1870 and 1939. However, to the best of my
knowledge, the current study is the first to document a negative causal effect. Notice,
however, that this average negative impact of trade on income masks large differences
across groups of countries. In particular, an exogenous increase in international trade
produced different effects, depending on the initial levels of economic development:
it was detrimental in countries characterised by a per-capita GDP below the top 33rd
percentile in 1860, while it did not impact the economic performance of the richest
countries. These estimates and a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation imply that the
greater part of the economic divergence observed between the richest countries and the
rest of the world, in the second-half of the nineteenth century, can be attributed to the
first wave of trade globalisation.
Figure 4. Relation between the log-change in trade, caused by the adoption of the
steamship and the long change in per-capita GDP between 1850 and 1905.
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Finally, I find that the effect of trade on economic development is beneficial for
countries that are characterised by strong constraints on executive power, which is a
distinct feature of the institutional environment that has been demonstrated to favour
private investment (see Acemoglu et al. 2001, and Acemoglu and Johnson 2005). More
specifically, I find that an exogenous doubling in the export-to-GDP ratio reduced
per-capita GDP growth rates by more than one-third in countries characterised by an
executive power with unlimited authority, while it increased per-capita GDP growth
rates by almost one-fifth in countries where the executive power was obliged to respond
to several accountability groups. Why should we expect institutions to be crucial to
benefitting from trade? A common argument is that a country with ‘good’ institutions
will suffer less from the hold-up under-investment problem in those industries that
intensively rely on relationship-specific assets (for a complete review, see Nunn and
Trefler 2014). In this sense, good institutions are a crucial source of comparative
advantage in non-agricultural sectors, in which the hold-up problem is more binding.
My results confirm this theoretical prediction: an exogenous increase in the exposure to
international trade increased the share of exports in non-agricultural products, and the
share of the population living in large cities, only in those countries characterised by
stronger constraints on the executive power. This result is relevant to the large stream
of literature that has argued that institutions are crucial to obtaining benefits from
international trade. The closest article in this sense is Acemoglu et al. (2005), which
shows that the rise of Atlantic trade between the 16th and 19th centuries only produced
a large positive impact on per-capita GDP and urbanisation in those European countries
characterised by political institutions that placed significant checks on monarchy.
Conclusions
What factors drove globalisation in the late 19th century? How did the rise in
international trade affect economic development? Pascali (forthcoming) addressed
these two questions using new data and a novel identification strategy. I found that
1) the adoption of the steamship had a major impact on patterns of international trade
worldwide, 2) only a small number of countries, characterised by more inclusive
institutions, benefited from trade integration, and 3) globalisation was the major driver
of the Great Divergence.
Maritime technology, trade, and economic development. Evidence from the first era of trade globalisation
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Policymakers who are willing to learn from history are advised to consider that a
reduction in trade barriers across countries does not automatically produce large
positive effects on economic development (at least, not in the short-run) and can
increase inequality across nations.
References:
Acemoglu, D. and S. Johnson (2005), “Unbundling institutions”, Journal of Political
Economy 113(5), 949-995.
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, and J. Robinson (2001) “The colonial origins of comparative
development: An empirical investigation”, American Economic Review 91(5), 1369-
1401.
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, and J. Robinson (2005), “The rise of Europe: Atlantic trade,
institutional change, and economic growth”, American Economic Review 95(3), 546-579.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0002828054201305
Feyrer, J. and B. Sacerdote (2009), “Colonialism and Modern Income: Islands as
Natural Experiments”, The Review of Economics and Statistics 91(2), 245-262.
Nunn, N. and D. Trefler (2014) “Domestic institutions as a source of comparative
advantage”, in G. Gopinath, E. Helpman, and K. Rogoff, Handbook of International
Economics, Volume 4, pp. 263-315. North Holland.
Pascali, L. (forthcoming), “The Wind of Change: Maritime Technology, Trade and
Economic Development”, American Economic Review.
Williamson, J. G. (2011), Trade and poverty: when the third world fell behind, The
MIT Press.
About the author
Luigi Pascali is an Associate Professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University. He
is also affiliated with the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, CEPR and CAGE.
He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Boston College. His research covers topics in
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growth and development, economic history and macroeconomics and has appeared
in international journals, including the American Economic Review and the Review of
Economics and Statistics.
The Long Economic and Political Shadow of History
Volume I. A Global View
Edited by Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
Centre for Economic Policy Research
33 Great Sutton Street London EC1V 0DX Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 Email: [email protected] www.cepr.org
Study the past if you would define the future, Confucius wisely argued. Do the roots of development go back to the pre-industrial times and the Neolithic Revolution? How do the legal systems, colonial institutions and practices transplanted by Europeans; the presence of colonisers themselves; and early colonial investments influence contemporary comparative development? What is the legacy of Africa’s slave trades and the artificial drawing of borders? What are the drivers of the divergent development paths of South and North America, states in India, and the North and South of Italy? How have the Enlightenment and the Protestant Reformation shaped European development? How deep is anti-Semitism in Europe? And what is the aftermath of the Holocaust in Russia? Do Nazi occupation and communism still matter? And how? Are there long-run consequences of environmental features and disasters?
Historians have long studied the origins and implications of important events; and sociologists, political scientists and anthropologists have debated fiercely the role of culture, genetics, and evolutionary features on long-run development. Over the past decades, it is economists, working on growth, who are ‘rediscovering’ the importance of history. A vibrant, far-reaching inter-disciplinary stream of work has emerged. Historical archives, anthropological, linguistic, and archaeological maps, genetic evidence, satellite images and geographic endowments, are blended with econometric techniques and theoretical models to tackle controversial issues. The findings of this ambitious research agenda are novel and fascinating. This e-book summarises some influential works from this new research agenda examining the shadow that history casts over various aspects of the economy and the polity. While there are many open issues and debates and although development is not deterministic, one message is clear: We are shaped by history (Martin Luther King Jr).
Th e Lo
n g Eco
n o m
ic an d Po
litical Sh ad
o w
o f H
isto ry
V o lu
m e I. A
G lo
b al V
iew
CEPR Press CEPR Press
A VoxEU.org Book
January 2017
9 780995 470156
ISBN 978-0-9954701-5-6
- Foreword
- i Series Introduction: Historical legacies and contemporary development
- Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
- 1 Introduction: A global view
- Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou
- 2 On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history
- Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil
- 3 Deep roots of comparative development
- Quamrul H. Ashraf and Oded Galor
- 4 Barriers to the spread of prosperity
- Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg
- 5 Environmental economic history
- James Fenske and Namrata Kala
- 6 The persistence of technological creativity and the Great Enrichment: Reflections on the “Rise of Europe.”
- Joel Mokyr
- 7 The economic impact of colonialism
- Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson
- 8 Legal origins
- Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer,and Robert Vishny
- 9 The European origins of economic development
- William Easterly and Ross Levine
- 10 On the long-run effects of colonial legacies. Evidence from small islands
- James Feyrer and Bruce Sacerdote
- 11 Maritime technology, trade, and economic development. evidence from the first era of trade globalisation
- Luigi Pascali
- _GoBack
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