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Forecasting tourism tax receipts: the case of Ventura County Lodging Association
Developed by: Chia-Li Chien, PhD, CFP®, PMP® John F Thiel, CFP®, MBA Stefan W Cosentino, Ph.D.
Version: 2020.3 3/18/20
Tabs in This File: Description
FinancialStatements VCLA Financial Statements from 2013 to 2017
Benchmark STR Summary Benchmark from 2012 to 2019
RevenueBenchmark Revenue Benchmark
DemandBenchmark Demand Benchmark
Demand_Re_Bench Demand Relative to Benchmark
Revenu_Re_Bench Revenue Relative to Benchmark

FinancialStatements

Historical Analysis 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Menu
Assumptions
Information were obtained from Tax Returns from 2013 through 2017
IRS publication 598 (Rev. February 2019) Tax on Unrelated Business Income (UBI or UBTI) have no cap & exclusions of interestes, dividends, etc.
Therefore, tax-exempt status not jeopardized: : https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p598.pdf
(Jul 1 - June 30) Fiscal year
Income Statement
Program Service Revenue 1,571,211 1,938,969 2,538,303 2,900,151 2,923,280
Total Expenses 1,605,842 1,635,219 2,230,334 2,447,184 2,474,605
Gross Profit (34,631) 303,750 307,969 452,967 448,675
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash - non interest bearing 449,213 754,953 1,067,884 1,522,646 1,977,413
Total Current Asstes 449,213 754,953 1,067,884 1,522,646 1,977,413
Non-Current Assets
Land, buildings, & Equipment 5,948 6,855 6,855 6,855 6,855
Less: accumulated depreciation 740 2,312 3,974 4,841 5,320
Land, buildings, & Equipment, net 5,208 4,543 2,881 2,014 1,535
Other assets (due from credit card) 2,346 1,021 - 0 - 0 - 0
Total Assets 456,767 760,517 1,070,765 1,524,660 1,978,948
Liabilities & Net Assets
Other Liabilities (credit card payable) - 0 - 0 2,279 3,207 8,820
Total Liabilities - 0 - 0 2,279 3,207 8,820
Net Assets 456,767 760,517 1,068,486 1,521,453 1,970,128
Expenses Claimed on Tax Returns
Expenses
Mangement 369,510 372,555 246,333 180,560
Legal 4,300 5,700 9,400 27,475
Accounting 7,639 11,452 18,958 23,911
Other Fees & Services Expenses 37,610 4,098 3,500 246,506
Office Expenses 9,894 15,320 7,667 11,357
Information Technology 7,337 2,169 5,161 7,421
Occupancy (rent) 10,970 15,074 18,133 17,124
Travel 15,965 15,426 17,248 12,287
Payments for travel or entertainment for any federal, state, or local public officials - 0 - 0 635
Confferences, conventions, & meetings - 0 10,068 3,430 - 0
Depreciation, depletion, & amortization 1,572 1,662 867 479
Insurance 4,689 5,775 6,481 5,084
Marketing & Sales Promotion 1,132,833 1,732,275 2,072,005 1,897,613
Collection Fees 19,390 25,383 29,002 29,233
Dues & Subscriptions 5,442 6,120 4,277 7,292
Telephone 4,533 5,400 4,245 7,355
All other expenses 3,535 1,857 477 273
Total Functional Expenses (Federal) 1,635,219 2,230,334 2,447,184 2,474,605
Total Functional Expenses (State) separate lines for rents & depreciation 1,622,677 2,213,598 2,428,184 2,457,002
straight line straight line MACRS MACRS
502,386 498,059 375,179 576,992

Benchmark

Source: 1084466_Ventura CA Area Se spreadsheet
Demand By Measure Average Monthly Revenue By Measure Average Monthly % Demand by Measure (change) % Revenue by Measure (change)
2012 96,050 9,126,951 2.1 4.7
2013 97,896 9,556,567 6.0 13.1
2014 103,543 10,782,144 3.5 11.3
2015 106,887 11,981,718 4.2 12.3
2016 111,209 13,405,411 (0.9) 1.8
2017 109,689 13,492,306 (2.3) 2.3
2018 106,725 13,674,461 (4.8) (2.2)
2019 100,073 12,151,451 2.1 7.6
Source: Smith Travel Research (2019). Trend Report - Ventura, CA Area Selected Properties. Hendersonville, TN.

BenchmarkAnalysis

Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report for VCLA area Menu
Demand By Measure
Demand
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2012 77,849 84,053 97,367 93,468 98,524 108,043 120,135 121,447 98,727 96,592 80,899 75,499
2013 81,776 84,414 91,023 93,698 97,235 112,371 123,831 124,245 101,579 96,350 85,022 83,208
2014 89,171 91,846 107,061 105,211 104,892 115,749 128,478 124,746 101,660 103,815 87,481 82,409
2015 89,031 96,559 111,130 103,495 108,386 119,865 125,581 126,584 109,416 109,374 91,667 91,553
2016 94,194 105,568 118,266 118,818 111,977 120,862 130,629 125,916 109,765 110,991 96,740 90,782
2017 90,974 97,744 116,987 112,152 107,653 116,834 124,859 118,693 108,602 109,797 98,639 113,330
2018 101,780 99,089 113,684 111,247 103,547 109,348 117,550 115,989 101,713 105,217 105,598 95,938
2019 89,281 95,190 115,749
Avg 89,254 94,182 107,931 105,441 104,602 114,725 124,438 122,517 104,495 104,591 92,292 90,388
Revenue By Measure
Revenue ($)
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2012 6,628,884 7,472,446 8,828,294 8,546,803 9,285,467 10,938,871 12,645,502 12,950,960 9,582,956 9,049,071 7,237,863 6,356,295
2013 7,135,129 7,678,286 8,286,923 8,834,320 9,287,773 11,752,825 13,743,359 13,834,469 9,935,761 9,196,598 7,785,191 7,208,171
2014 8,117,133 8,647,304 10,314,763 10,357,347 10,780,653 12,934,085 15,272,770 15,186,160 10,685,726 10,751,336 8,561,495 7,776,956
2015 8,534,680 9,749,386 11,583,116 11,143,911 12,324,639 14,330,698 16,283,368 16,668,849 12,626,940 12,061,340 9,454,486 9,019,202
2016 9,595,765 11,619,450 13,436,292 14,413,692 13,942,239 15,755,682 18,188,345 17,215,900 13,547,093 13,033,363 10,675,004 9,442,102
2017 9,537,054 10,972,666 13,646,337 13,436,504 13,321,899 15,608,191 18,068,627 16,501,828 13,556,098 13,188,138 11,084,176 12,986,159
2018 11,658,704 11,541,148 13,883,777 14,243,519 13,205,318 15,254,789 17,200,199 17,056,912 13,000,403 12,924,544 12,881,191 11,243,034
2019 10,122,238 11,519,995 14,812,119
Avg 8,743,907 9,668,669 11,425,643 11,568,014 11,735,427 13,796,449 15,914,596 15,630,725 11,847,854 11,457,770 9,668,487 9,147,417
% Demand by Measure (change)
Demand
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2013 5.0 0.4 -6.5 0.2 -1.3 4.0 3.1 2.3 2.9 -0.3 5.1 10.2
2014 9.0 8.8 17.6 12.3 7.9 3.0 3.8 0.4 0.1 7.7 2.9 -1.0
2015 -0.2 5.1 3.8 -1.6 3.3 3.6 -2.3 1.5 7.6 5.4 4.8 11.1
2016 5.8 9.3 6.4 14.8 3.3 0.8 4.0 -0.5 0.3 1.5 5.5 -0.8
2017 -3.4 -7.4 -1.1 -5.6 -3.9 -3.3 -4.4 -5.7 -1.1 -1.1 2.0 24.8
2018 11.9 1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -3.8 -6.4 -5.9 -2.3 -6.3 -4.2 7.1 -15.3
2019 -12.3 -3.9 1.8
Avg 4.7 2.9 2.9 3.2 0.9 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 0.6 1.5 4.6 4.8
1.047 1.029 1.029 1.032 1.009 1.003 0.997 0.993 1.006 1.015 1.046 1.048
% Revenue by Measure (change)
Revenue
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2013 7.6 2.8 -6.1 3.4 0.0 7.4 8.7 6.8 3.7 1.6 7.6 13.4
2014 13.8 12.6 24.5 17.2 16.1 10.1 11.1 9.8 7.5 16.9 10.0 7.9
2015 5.1 12.7 12.3 7.6 14.3 10.8 6.6 9.8 18.2 12.2 10.4 16.0
2016 12.4 19.2 16.0 29.3 13.1 9.9 11.7 3.3 7.3 8.1 12.9 4.7
2017 -0.6 -5.6 1.6 -6.8 -4.4 -0.9 -0.7 -4.1 0.1 1.2 3.8 37.5
2018 22.2 5.2 1.7 6.0 -0.9 -2.3 -4.8 3.4 -4.1 -2.0 16.2 -13.4
2019 -13.2 -0.2 6.7
Avg 10.102 7.819 8.323 9.461 6.370 5.839 5.444 4.809 5.442 6.328 10.153 11.011
1.101 1.078 1.083 1.095 1.064 1.058 1.054 1.048 1.054 1.063 1.102 1.110
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Demand Benchmark 93448.4892857142 96913.1309999998 111061.146 108815.406857142 105543.418 115068.745142857 124064.258714285 121659.522857142 105121.538857142 106159.72 96537.7308571428 94727.0731428571
2019 Demand 89,281 95,190 115,749
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Revenue Benchmark $ 9,627,041.61 $ 10,422,825.64 $ 12,373,971.52 $ 12,666,975.02 $ 12,486,494.18 $ 14,596,642.74 $ 16,773,983.88 $ 16,381,000.25 $ 12,487,637.97 $ 12,179,609.51 $ 10,654,672.20 $ 10,153,632.87
2019 Revenue 10,122,238 11,519,995 14,812,119

RevenueBenchmark

Average Revenue by Month - STR Trend Report

Revenue Benchmark January February March April May June July August September October November December 9627041.6069999989 10422825.644000001 12373971.523714285 12666975.017142842 12486494.175999939 14596642.73971427 16773983.882857129 16381000.249142827 12487637.965428513 12179609.51 10654672.201714287 10153632.870000001

DemandBenchmark

Average Demand For Rooms by Month - STR Trend Report

Demand Benchmark January February March April May June July August September October November December 93448.48928571424 96913.130999999848 111061.14599999999 108815.406857142 12 105543.41799999999 115068.7451428567 124064.25871428529 121659.522857142 105121.53885714243 106159.71999999984 96537.730857142844 94727.073142857073

Demand_Re_Bench

Demand Relative to Average Demand by Month - STR Trend Report

Demand Benchmark January February March April May June July August September October November December 93448.48928571424 96913.130999999848 111061.14599999999 108815.40685714212 105543.41799999999 115068.7451428567 124064.25871428529 121659.522857142 105121.53885714243 106159.71999999984 96537.730857142844 94727.073142857073 2019 Demand January February March April May June July August September October November December 89281 95190 115749

Revenu_Re_Bench

Revenue Relative to Average Revenue By Month - STR Trend Report

Revenue Benchmark January February March April May June July August September October November December 9627041.6069999989 10422825.644000001 12373971.523714285 12666975.017142842 12486494.175999939 14596642.73971427 16773983.882857129 16381000.249142827 12487637.965428513 12179609.51 10654672.201714287 10153632.870000001 2019 Revenue January February March April May June July August September October November December 10122238 11519995 14812119