ECONOMIC QUESTIONS

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UpwardMobility1.pdf

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. -- In a presidential campaign where candidates from both parties are

blaming globalization for a shrinking middle class, a 36-year old India-born economist has a

different explanation: Bad neighborhoods and bad teachers rob poor children of the chance to

climb into the middle class.

His solution? Help the children and their families move to better neighborhoods.

What makes Harvard University's Raj Chetty notable isn't just his views, but his reach. He has

advised Republican and Democrats alike, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Obama White House.

In a political year marked by anger and strong partisanship, his research could help smooth some

of the hard edges of the income-inequality debate running through the 2016 presidential

campaign.

His research finds that upward mobility depends on government policies, a position common

among Democrats, as well as on neighborhood churches and two-parent families, as Republicans

contend.

"Chetty's work challenges preconceived notions on both sides" of the political divide, says Avik

Roy, a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute who advises Republican campaigns.

Policy advisers say they expect to roll out proposals bearing his imprint as the campaign unfolds.

Mrs. Clinton is examining his research into housing vouchers as she crafts domestic policies. Mr.

Bush is figuring out how to strengthen neighborhoods as a way to boost mobility. The White

House has drawn on his work in setting housing policy.

Mr. Chetty and the economists he works with tackle problems that seem intractable, and offer

hopeful prescriptions. Consider economic inequality -- the income spread between rich, middle-

class and poor. Mr. Chetty addresses the issue indirectly. He examines income mobility, which

he defines as the ability to rise from the lowest 20th percentile of income distribution to the top

80th percentile in one generation. Climbing that ladder is more important than ever, he says,

because the distance between the economic classes is greater than in the past.

By analyzing tax records of families in 741 geographic districts, he pinpoints hotbeds of

opportunity. Poorer children in Salt Lake City, for example, are twice as likely to reach the top

fifth in income as those in Atlanta, though personal income in the cities is about the same.

His proposal: move poor children to high-mobility communities and remove the impediments to

mobility in poor-performing neighborhoods.

He is working with the Obama administration on ways to encourage landlords in higher-

opportunity neighborhoods to take in poor families by paying landlords more or guaranteeing

rent payment.

"The view that we'll fix the American dream at the national level is probably not the right way to

look at the problem," he said. "What needs to be fixed in Salt Lake City is very different from

what needs to be fixed in Cleveland or Atlanta."

His biggest fight has come with the education establishment. He found that teachers who are able

to lift the test scores of youngsters have a profound effect on the students' future earnings. But

many teachers object to being evaluated by test scores.

"The unintended consequence of Chetty's work is a tremendous demoralization of teachers," said

New York University educational historian Diane Ravitch. "It makes test scores not a measure of

education but a goal of education."

Mr. Chetty said that wasn't his aim but the controversy makes it unlikely that teacher-union

allies, like Mrs. Clinton, will embrace that part of his work. He has met at least twice with Mrs.

Clinton, and says he has advised her campaign on designing a housing voucher program to help

poor families with younger children move to higher-mobility neighborhoods. Young children

who make such moves, Mr. Chetty's research finds, are more likely to attend college and earn

more in the future.

The Bush campaign wants to figure out how to increase the number of traditional families and

community organizations, which Mr. Chetty's work identifies as mainstays of high-mobility

neighborhoods.

During a 90-minute conversation this spring with Mr. Bush, Mr. Chetty said he explained his

findings but acknowledged he didn't have a good idea about how government could help create

"social cohesion." He says he is exploring that question with his students and colleagues.

Mr. Bush's campaign confirms the meeting with Mr. Chetty, but didn't offer details. Mrs. Clinton

said in March Mr. Chetty's work "really wakes us up to what we are facing."