Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Monte Carlo Analyses

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UnitIV_Monte_Carlo_Breakfast_Schedule_Example.xlsx
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Breakfast schedule

Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Var
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01
4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69
6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36
7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36
8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25
9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44
10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05
12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2 0.11
13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04
14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11

Montesim

Task Duration Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Variance Alpha Beta Random Path Length
Start 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Start-1-2-3-7-4-9-12-13-14 20.89
1.123219671 1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04 1.97 4.59 0.731909259 Start-1-2-3-7-5-12-13-14 20.10
0.5429345578 2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02 3.47 4.40 0.5871094055 Start-1-8-13-14 15.51
0.3991737238 3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01 4.49 3.29 0.5342308952 Start-1-2-3-7-6-12,13,14 19.65
1.1973353467 4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 1.2725933562 Start-1-2-3-7-10-13-14 14.11
3.7514655929 5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69 3.40 4.44 5.1284016817 Start-1-2-3-7-11-13-14 14.43
3.7205198379 6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36 3.58 4.34 4.6763537376
12.4319475893 7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36 4.22 3.74 9.012555629 Critical Path # 1
13.1861754395 8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25 2.13 4.64 12.4573251769 Critical Path Start-1-2-3-7-4-9-12-13-14
4.5397228789 9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44 2.33 4.67 4.643278013
0.9919025036 10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 0.9193945674
1.0098678379 11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05 4.53 3.20 1.2434410227 Trial Makespan Critical Path
1.5010562735 12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2.00 0.11 4.00 4.00 1.7827423093 20.89 1
1.0175141669 13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04 4.44 3.40 0.8303927766 1 24.6156402445 4
1.2700504611 14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11 2.33 4.67 1.4919165941 2 21.683627762 1
3 22.1061609429 2
4 22.2490368845 4
5 23.1818847981 4
Task Duration ES EF LS LF TS Critical Best Likely Worst 6 22.5147607472 2
Start 0 7 19.8912109548 1
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator 0.73 0 0.73 0.00 0.73 0.00 0.25 0.5 1.5 8 20.4661212148 2
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 0.59 0.73 1.32 0.73 1.32 0.00 TRUE 0.15 0.5 1 9 21.0743136011 1
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 0.53 1.32 1.85 1.32 1.85 0.00 TRUE 0.1 0.5 0.75 10 24.8345242554 4
4 Place toast in toaster 1.27 10.87 12.14 10.87 12.14 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 1.5
5 Cook eggs 5.13 10.87 15.99 11.65 16.78 0.79 FALSE 3 5 8
6 Cook bacon 4.68 10.87 15.54 12.11 16.78 1.24 FALSE 2 5 9
7 Cook hash browns 9.01 1.85 10.87 1.85 10.87 0.00 TRUE 4 10 15
8 Brew coffee 12.46 0.73 13.19 6.11 18.56 5.38 FALSE 8 10 17
9 Make toast 4.64 12.14 16.78 12.14 16.78 0.00 TRUE 3 4 7
10 Pour orange juice 0.92 10.87 11.79 17.65 18.56 6.78 FALSE 0.5 1 1.5
11 Pour coffee 1.24 10.87 12.11 17.32 18.56 6.46 FALSE 0.15 1 1.5
12 Plate breakfast food 1.78 16.78 18.56 16.78 18.56 0.00 TRUE 1 2 3
13 Serve coffee 0.83 18.56 19.39 18.56 19.39 0.00 TRUE 0.25 1 1.5
14 Serve breakfast 1.49 19.39 20.89 19.39 20.89 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 2.5

Duration chart

Trial CP Critical Path
0 23.0871724426 1
1 20.3963836741 4
2 21.3373924926 4
3 17.3076145502 1
4 23.7122478765 4
5 19.4734548334 1
6 20.2547083104 2
7 25.6512534416 1
8 24.6239616244 1
9 21.778658588 1
10 22.171363934 4

Schedule Duration

CP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23.087172442587853 20.396383674087218 21.337392492578662 17.307614550234053 23.7122478765293 19.473454833375484 20.25470831038686 25.651253441649249 24.623961624415568 21.778658588040265 22.171363934040073

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