MCPA#4

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UnitIV_Monte_Carlo_Breakfast_Schedule_Example.xlsx
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Breakfast schedule

Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Var
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01
4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69
6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36
7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36
8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25
9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44
10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05
12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2 0.11
13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04
14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11

Montesim

Task Duration Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Variance Alpha Beta Random Path Length
Start 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Start-1-2-3-7-4-9-12-13-14 22.19
0.369797775 1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04 1.97 4.59 0.5097566849 Start-1-2-3-7-5-12-13-14 22.80
0.365656302 2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02 3.47 4.40 0.55427729 Start-1-8-13-14 15.95
0.5557906703 3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01 4.49 3.29 0.6321760277 Start-1-2-3-7-6-12,13,14 22.31
0.897040933 4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 0.5558569505 Start-1-2-3-7-10-13-14 16.08
3.6188533372 5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69 3.40 4.44 5.7773406029 Start-1-2-3-7-11-13-14 16.01
5.0623395273 6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36 3.58 4.34 5.2889858725
6.3287532511 7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36 4.22 3.74 11.0951546523 Critical Path # 2
11.8024282032 8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25 2.13 4.64 13.2726850319 Critical Path Start-1-2-3-7-5-12-13-14
4.6820572758 9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44 2.33 4.67 4.6065853451
0.8423850832 10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 1.1245524934
0.7179168866 11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05 4.53 3.20 1.057589916 Trial Makespan Critical Path
2.2427043894 12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2.00 0.11 4.00 4.00 2.0662661022 22.80 2
0.8416901596 13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04 4.44 3.40 0.8830467001 1 22.6847711228 4
1.7463008614 14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11 2.33 4.67 1.2826218542 2 21.2863391686 2
3 22.9125115528 1
4 18.8060260734 4
5 22.3963290692 4
Task Duration ES EF LS LF TS Critical Best Likely Worst 6 19.0392610812 4
Start 0 7 21.9119269332 2
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator 0.51 0 0.51 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.25 0.5 1.5 8 20.0159971911 4
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 0.55 0.51 1.06 0.51 1.06 0.00 TRUE 0.15 0.5 1 9 24.3242199185 2
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 0.63 1.06 1.70 1.06 1.70 0.00 TRUE 0.1 0.5 0.75 10 16.7155052628 1
4 Place toast in toaster 0.56 12.79 13.35 12.79 13.35 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 1.5
5 Cook eggs 5.78 12.79 18.57 12.79 18.57 0.00 TRUE 3 5 8
6 Cook bacon 5.29 12.79 18.08 13.28 18.57 0.49 FALSE 2 5 9
7 Cook hash browns 11.10 1.70 12.79 1.70 12.79 0.00 TRUE 4 10 15
8 Brew coffee 13.27 0.51 13.78 7.36 20.63 6.85 FALSE 8 10 17
9 Make toast 4.61 13.35 17.95 13.96 18.57 0.61 FALSE 3 4 7
10 Pour orange juice 1.12 12.79 13.92 19.51 20.63 6.72 FALSE 0.5 1 1.5
11 Pour coffee 1.06 12.79 13.85 19.58 20.63 6.79 FALSE 0.15 1 1.5
12 Plate breakfast food 2.07 18.57 20.63 18.57 20.63 0.00 TRUE 1 2 3
13 Serve coffee 0.88 20.63 21.52 20.63 21.52 0.00 TRUE 0.25 1 1.5
14 Serve breakfast 1.28 21.52 22.80 21.52 22.80 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 2.5

Duration chart

Trial CP Critical Path
0 23.0871724426 1
1 20.3963836741 4
2 21.3373924926 4
3 17.3076145502 1
4 23.7122478765 4
5 19.4734548334 1
6 20.2547083104 2
7 25.6512534416 1
8 24.6239616244 1
9 21.778658588 1
10 22.171363934 4

Schedule Duration

CP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23.087172442587853 20.396383674087218 21.337392492578662 17.307614550234053 23.7122478765293 19.473454833375484 20.25470831038686 25.651253441649249 24.623961624415568 21.778658588040265 22.171363934040073