PERT and Monte Carlos Analysis

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UnitIV_Monte_Carlo_Breakfast_Schedule_Example.xlsx
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Breakfast schedule

Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Var
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01
4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69
6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36
7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36
8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25
9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44
10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05
12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2 0.11
13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04
14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11

Montesim

Task Duration Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Variance Alpha Beta Random Path Length
Start 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Start-1-2-3-7-4-9-12-13-14 24.54
0.6485003199 1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04 1.97 4.59 0.500527453 Start-1-2-3-7-5-12-13-14 23.58
0.4157714908 2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02 3.47 4.40 0.6383708122 Start-1-8-13-14 12.49
0.6122688404 3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01 4.49 3.29 0.4131382424 Start-1-2-3-7-6-12,13,14 23.00
0.8916371737 4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 1.343910858 Start-1-2-3-7-10-13-14 15.47
5.5788068295 5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69 3.40 4.44 5.9839441246 Start-1-2-3-7-11-13-14 15.77
6.4511975534 6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36 3.58 4.34 5.409774436
9.7438289463 7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36 4.22 3.74 10.9527594129 Critical Path # 1
9.4980874382 8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25 2.13 4.64 9.7490432832 Critical Path Start-1-2-3-7-4-9-12-13-14
4.9564483463 9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44 2.33 4.67 5.6002979664
1.1353907208 10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 0.7211815414
0.6245076198 11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05 4.53 3.20 1.0235401566 Trial Makespan Critical Path
2.2788407699 12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2.00 0.11 4.00 4.00 2.847618501 24.54 1
0.634373932 13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04 4.44 3.40 1.190750093 1 17.4659706266 4
1.3937502458 14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11 2.33 4.67 1.0502108897 2 19.1407399873 2
3 21.1419470029 1
4 20.7349267646 4
5 21.1914825081 2
Task Duration ES EF LS LF TS Critical Best Likely Worst 6 20.2132224911 2
Start 0 7 21.7781945205 4
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator 0.50 0 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.25 0.5 1.5 8 22.7391497398 4
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 0.64 0.50 1.14 0.50 1.14 0.00 TRUE 0.15 0.5 1 9 22.6407055138 1
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 0.41 1.14 1.55 1.14 1.55 0.00 TRUE 0.1 0.5 0.75 10 23.6347900219 2
4 Place toast in toaster 1.34 12.50 13.85 12.50 13.85 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 1.5
5 Cook eggs 5.98 12.50 18.49 13.47 19.45 0.96 FALSE 3 5 8
6 Cook bacon 5.41 12.50 17.91 14.04 19.45 1.53 FALSE 2 5 9
7 Cook hash browns 10.95 1.55 12.50 1.55 12.50 0.00 TRUE 4 10 15
8 Brew coffee 9.75 0.50 10.25 12.55 22.30 12.05 FALSE 8 10 17
9 Make toast 5.60 13.85 19.45 13.85 19.45 0.00 TRUE 3 4 7
10 Pour orange juice 0.72 12.50 13.23 21.58 22.30 9.07 FALSE 0.5 1 1.5
11 Pour coffee 1.02 12.50 13.53 21.27 22.30 8.77 FALSE 0.15 1 1.5
12 Plate breakfast food 2.85 19.45 22.30 19.45 22.30 0.00 TRUE 1 2 3
13 Serve coffee 1.19 22.30 23.49 22.30 23.49 0.00 TRUE 0.25 1 1.5
14 Serve breakfast 1.05 23.49 24.54 23.49 24.54 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 2.5

Duration chart

Trial CP Critical Path
0 23.0871724426 1
1 20.3963836741 4
2 21.3373924926 4
3 17.3076145502 1
4 23.7122478765 4
5 19.4734548334 1
6 20.2547083104 2
7 25.6512534416 1
8 24.6239616244 1
9 21.778658588 1
10 22.171363934 4

Schedule Duration

CP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23.087172442587853 20.396383674087218 21.337392492578662 17.307614550234053 23.7122478765293 19.473454833375484 20.25470831038686 25.651253441649249 24.623961624415568 21.778658588040265 22.171363934040073