group project, part 1 and 2
Deutsche Bank
Leveraged Finance Conference October 2, 2018
Mike Leskinen Managing Director
Investor Relations
Ted North Managing Director
Corporate Finance
1
Safe Harbor Statement
Certain statements included in this presentation are forward-looking and thus reflect our current expectations and beliefs with respect to certain current and
future events and anticipated financial and operating performance. Such forward-looking statements are and will be subject to many risks and uncertainties
relating to our operations and business environment that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such
forward-looking statements. Words such as “expects,” “will,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “indicates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook,”
“goals” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Additionally, forward-looking statements include statements that do not
relate solely to historical facts, such as statements which identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or
uncertainties, or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking
statements in this presentation are based upon information available to us on the date of this presentation. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or
revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by
applicable law. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the
following: general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices,
costs of aircraft fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); economic and political instability and other risks of doing business globally, including
political developments that may impact our operations in certain countries; demand for travel and the impact that global economic and political conditions have
on customer travel patterns; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; demand for transportation in the markets in which we operate; our capacity
decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; the effects of any hostilities, act of war or terrorist attack; the effects of any technology failures or
cybersecurity breaches; the impact of regulatory, investigative and legal proceedings and legal compliance risks; disruptions to our regional network; the ability
of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; costs
associated with any modification or termination of our aircraft orders; potential reputational or other impact from adverse events in our operations, the
operations of our regional carriers or the operations of our code share partners; our ability to attract and retain customers; our ability to execute our operational
plans and revenue-generating initiatives, including optimizing our revenue; our ability to control our costs, including realizing benefits from our resource
optimization efforts, cost reduction initiatives and fleet replacement programs; the impact of any management changes; our ability to cost-effectively hedge
against increases in the price of aircraft fuel if we decide to do so; any potential realized or unrealized gains or losses related to any fuel or currency hedging
programs; labor costs; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of any collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups;
any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; U.S. or
foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including Open Skies agreements and environmental regulations); industry consolidation or
changes in airline alliances; our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to
maintain adequate liquidity; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; weather conditions; our ability to utilize our net operating losses to offset
future taxable income; the impact of changes in tax laws; the success of our investments in airlines in other parts of the world; and other risks and uncertainties
set forth under Part I, Item 1A., “Risk Factors,” of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2017, as well as other risks and
uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
2
The U.S. airline industry is now generating consistent profits
U.S. passenger airlines Pre-tax earnings
Structural changes in the business have led to financial stability
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%$30B
$20B
$10B
$0B
($10B)
($20B)
($30B)
200720062005 20192012201120102009200820012000 201520142013 201820172016200420032002
Profit/(Loss)Margin
Source: U.S DOT Form 41 Data; 2018 and 2019 figures based on Wall Street consensus industry growth projections
2000-2013
averaged ~$5B
annual pre-tax loss
and negative (3%)
pre-tax margin
2014-2019
projected to average
~$18B annual pre-tax
income and ~10%
pre-tax margin
Profit/(Loss) Margin
3
Business Highlights
4
Delivering top-tier operational performance continues to be our focus
D:001
1 Consolidated system flights
Source: masFlight
70.0% 69.7%
68.7%
2Q16 2Q182Q17
2Q18 D:001
69.8%
UA
70.0%
WN
46.3%
AA
65.2%
DL
Completion factor1
2Q16
98.3%
98.7%
2Q182Q17
98.6%
5
Improving customer service and experience is a top priority
▪ Equipping employees with modern tools
▪ Completed rollout of 10,000 mobile devices for airport agents in 1Q18
▪ Continue to train our team on core4, United’s customer service hierarchical decision framework
- Designed to drive improved customer service and experience
- Key core4 principles: safe, caring, dependable, and efficient
6
Network strategy
Network is
our
foundation
Leverage our
strengths
“Uniquely
United”
opportunities
▪ Our network has tremendous potential – capitalizing on our strengths and improving our hub
quality
▪ Other commercial elements require a strong network to succeed
▪ Overall strategy returns United to profitable growth
▪ Our international gateways are a structural advantage that we will continue to grow and enhance
▪ Enhance and improve our alliances and JVs
▪ Geographic position of our hubs
▪ Grow our domestic network to strengthen our mid-continent hubs
▪ Greater scale at our hubs reinforces our relevance and value proposition to customers
▪ Continue to improve connectivity at our hubs
7
Fleet flexibility in the event of a downturn
63 66
31 43
109
Lease expirations
2020E2019E
94
Aircraft late in life-cycle
with heavy maintenance due
Flexibility levers in mainline fleet
Estimated resulting
capacity reduction (~12%) (~12%)
▪ Leased aircraft can be returned to lessor at time of contract expiration
▪ Aircraft late in life-cycle and due for heavy maintenance overhauls can be retired and used for spare parts
8
Segmentation
Loyalty
Revenue Management
Commercial initiatives running in-line with expectations
▪ Gemini running on all flights and all cabins
▪ Results exceeded expectations in the first half of the year
▪ Rolled out Basic Economy in select Latin markets
▪ Launched a Basic Economy-like product across the Atlantic
▪ Launched a new United Explorer card in June
▪ New card acquisitions grew over 10% year-over-year in 2Q
Rebanking ▪ Strong 2Q results following our rebank initiatives in Houston and Chicago
▪ Revenue to small cities from large/medium cities up over 10% year-over-year in 2Q
9
Financial Update
10
Adjusted debt1
2Q18 Debt, pension and post-retirement obligations ($B)2
United’s balance sheet is well positioned among peers
1 Adjusted debt and adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP measures; adjusted EBITDA excludes special charges. For a GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation, see Appendix A 2 Source: SEC filings for Delta Air Lines and American Airlines Group 3 Annual aircraft rent capitalized at 7x, see Appendix A
United Leverage
2Q18 LTM
Net Income ($B) $2.1
Adj. EBITDA1 ($B) $5.7
Debt / Adj. EBITDA1 3.1x
Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA1 3.8x
$14.5 $9.9
$24.1
$3.8
$2.6
$8.5
$3.4
$9.1
$7.1
$21.7
+$18.0
$39.7
$21.6
Pension and post-retirement liability Debt and capital lease obligations
Aircraft rent, capitalized3
Moody’s Fitch S&P
Ba2 BB BB
Upgraded
January 2017
Upgraded
October 2016
Upgraded
April 2018
UAL credit ratings
11
$5B - $6B is the optimal liquidity level
▪ Absorb seasonality of the business
(~$1.5B peak to trough)
▪ Meets debt and capital expenditure
commitments
▪ Provides sufficient liquidity under extreme
stress-test (e.g. Sept. 11th) scenario
Strong liquidity position
$3.8
$5.1
$2.0
$2.0
Minimum
target balance
$5.0B
YE17
$5.8
YE16
$5.8
$4.45
$1.35
2Q18
$7.1
Unrestricted liquidity ($B)
Unrestricted cash and short-term investments
Revolving credit facility
Increased revolving credit facility to $2B in 1Q17
with the full amount undrawn as of June 30, 2018
12
Capital allocation and fleet update
Share Repurchases
• Repurchased ~$1B worth of shares in the first half of the year, representing ~5% of shares outstanding as of year-end 2017
• ~$2.0B in repurchase authority remaining
• Plan to continue to opportunistically return cash to shareholders through share repurchases
Fleet
• Announced new order for 9 Boeing 787 aircraft, with expected delivery starting in 2020
• Purchasing 20 used Airbus A319 aircraft with expected delivery in 2020 and 2021
• Pursuing additional used aircraft transactions to supplement new aircraft deliveries
13
Capital expenditures in 2018 expected to be $3.6B - $3.8B
▪ 24 scheduled aircraft deliveries in 2018
▪ Opportunistic purchases of aircraft off-lease
▪ Continue to invest in product, technology and
infrastructure
Adjusted capital expenditures ($B)
$4.0
$4.7
$3.6 - $3.8
2017
~($1.0)
2018E
1 Adjusted capital expenditures is a non-GAAP measure and excludes non-cash capital expenditures and fully reimbursable projects. For a GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation, see Appendix A 2 Excludes non-cash capital expenditures and fully reimbursable projects, the amount and timing of which are not determinable at this time. Accordingly, the company is not providing capital
expenditure guidance on a GAAP basis.
Non-GAAP
GAAP
1 2
14
Reaching financial targets will guide our long term network strategy
▪ Primary focus areas:
- Strengthening and growing our domestic network
- Driving asset efficiency and productivity
▪ Target ~25% CAGR adj. EPS from 2018 through 2020
2020E
$11.00 - $13.00
2018E 1Q Update
$7.00 - $8.50
2018E Initial
$6.50 - $8.50
2018E 2Q Update
$7.25 - $8.75
Target adjusted earnings per share, diluted1
1 Excludes special charges and the impact of mark-to-market adjustments on equity investments, the nature of which are not determinable at this time.
Accordingly, the company is not providing earnings guidance on a GAAP basis
16
Appendix A: reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP financial measures
UAL evaluates its financial performance utilizing various accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) and Non-GAAP financial measures. UAL provides financial
metrics, including earnings before interest, taxes depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), excluding special charges and market-to-market losses on equity investments, and adjusted debt, that we
believe provides useful supplemental information for management and investors. This financial metric is also adjusted for special items that management believes are not indicative of UAL’s
ongoing performance. Aircraft rent is annualized and adjusted times seven per industry standards.
1 Amounts adjusted due to the adoption of Accounting Standards Update No. 2014-09, Revenue from Contracts with Customers (Topic 606) and Accounting Standards Update No. 2017-07, Improving the Presentation of Net Periodic
Pension Cost and Net Periodic Postretirement Benefit Cost. For additional information related to adjustments, see the press release issued by UAL dated February 28, 2018, filed on that date with the SEC as an exhibit to UAL’s Form
8-K.
2 For additional information related to special charges. See Note 14 in Part II, Item 8 of United’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2017
(In millions)
EBITDA
Twelve Months Ended
June 30, 20181
Net income $2,055
Adjusted for:
Depreciation and amortization 2,193
Interest expense 695
Interest capitalized (73)
Interest income (75)
Income tax expense 599
Special charges before income taxes2 250
MTM losses on equity investments 90
Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special charges and MTM losses on equity investments - Non-GAAP $5,734
(In millions)
Adjusted Debt
Quarter Ended
June 30, 2018
Current maturities of long-term debt $887
Current maturities of capital leases 117
Long-term debt 12,460
Long-term obligations under capital leases 1,039
Postretirement benefit liability 1,585
Pension liability 1,815
Balance sheet debt 17,903
Aircraft rent at 7x 3,752
Adjusted debt - Non-GAAP $21,655
17
Appendix A: reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP financial measures (continued)
UAL believes that adjusting capital expenditures for assets acquired through the issuance of debt and capital leases, airport construction financing and excluding fully reimbursable projects is
useful to investors in order to appropriately reflect the non-reimbursable funds spent on capital expenditures
(In millions)
Capital Expenditures
Year Ended
December 31, 2017
Capital expenditures $ 3,998
Property and equipment acquired through the issuance of debt and capital leases 935
Airport construction financing 42
Fully reimbursable projects (246)
Adjusted capital expenditures – Non-GAAP $ 4,729