Ocean 3

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGEH

UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE

UNIT 5- WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE

EXPERIENCE

Far from the sea in places like the American midwest, dust bowl inhabitants saw just what climate change combined with human change can do......Mervin Jules ca 1936

I learned about and was forever interested in the weather by watching my dad.  

Raised on a farm in Illinois during the depression, and the dust bowl, Glen took charge of the farm and cared for his five older sisters and mom after his dad died in 1940, Enlisting underage in the military in 1944 serving in the Pacific just before the end of the war, he ended up in Southern California and brought his family out.  

As a farmer and then commercial pilot the weather was always on his mind. At home on a small one acre place he was out of the air but still had his mind on the weather.  I particularly remember him being concerned with the dew point.  He had partnered to buy fruit groves in the central valley and the dew point meant frost on clear cold nights.  IF this occurred  near

My SDSU CoursesYiwen Li

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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32 degrees for a short amount of time frost could form but any crop damage will be minimal.  Any wind was good because it prevents cold still air from collecting near the surface.  IN some cases a mild frost can help protect the fruit if the temperature continues to drop. The formation of ice releases latent heat which provides a little bit of a buffer to the dropping temperature.  IF the temperature drops to 25 degrees for more than 4 hours without the protection of a thin layer of frost the inside of the fruit will freeze causing severe damage to the fruit.  

He had a fancy low-band radio that could pick up weather radio signals and we would be there as he intently listened.  The weather conditions were important.  I found it almost more fascinating to tune the frequency to the "atomic" clock time from Colorado which would broadcast a countdown with a beeping tone every hour so you could synchronize your watch to the real time. you can still tune in the radio to get the atomic time(WWVB 60 kHz) .

if you are interested beyond the scope of this class .........you can go to the website NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDS AND TECHNOLOGY,   To see the high- tech science of how we keep time using a cesium clock.

CHECK IT OUT

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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WINTER 1969

The craziest weather experience I visually remember as a kid in Ventura County was the rain and flooding in January and February 1969.  More specifically the raging torrent of brown debris filled water, a dozen feet deep squeezing under the Saticoy Bridge on highway 118. The last storm of the winter lasted four days and finally brought the bridge down on February 25th.  The Santa Clara River was a real force of nature.  IT has a large drainage basin with several dams to catch water so it could have been much worse.  

My dad had been watching the weather and so had I,  There was a flood control basin behind our house and it was full.  It was way different from the norm, so we had to investigate.  Thankfully my dad included me when he decided to go check out the river.  The water was wide, deep, and brown.  On the Saticoy side (north) of the bridge, my dad pulled down a muddy road that would normally continue down into a dry river bed.  We stopped before the first crack he saw. A foot-wide crack had formed in the earth. About 40 feet away it dropped off. Hydraulic forces were hard at work . The sound was loud. The cliff of saturated alluvial sand and gravel was being rapidly removed.  The river had carved the entire channel twenty feet deeper and washed away sediments which had  been there for a 1000 years. The foot-wide crack was an impending landslide slump twenty feet thick ready to go.   We did not stay long and got back across the bridge. The bridge failed the next day. 

The force of nature had been shown to a nine year old kid.  It would be hard to forget, and so would the waves at the river mouth which were epic in the early seventies. An immense amount of sand had washed out of the channel and into the ocean.  A delta was constructed and for a while the waves pealed perfectly along it.

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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OCEAN BORN STORMS CAN IMPACT FLOODING AND EROSION RATES IN CALIFORNIA EL NINO AND LA NINA CYCLES PLAY A ROLE IN CALIFORNIA WEATHER

HERE ARE SOME OF THE REASONS WHY THIS STORY OF WEATHER RELATES TO OCEAN SCIENCE:

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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THE OCEAN SYSTEM AND THE LAND SYSTEM ARE INTERCONNECTED THE HEAT OF THE OCEAN IS A POWERFUL FORCE WITH WIDE RANGING IMPACTS BIG CLIMATE EXCURSIONS IN THE PAST INVOLVED OCEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES THE CHANGES IN OCEAN HEAT DISTRIBUTION CAN FORCE ECOSYSTEM CHANGES

How did the president (Richard Nixon) respond and what legislation was passed in the following year after the spill?

A TIME OF CHANGE............

CURRICULUM CONNECTION-1969

Between the saturating storms of January and those intense rains in late February an environmental disaster in the Channel made world news, the 1969 Santa Barbara oil spill.  It happened at a time of change. It still resonates today in the culture of many native Californians. Offshore oil drilling has never expanded, no more platforms were built along southern California's coast. Somehow the oil spill made us wake up to the fact that the disaster was a reflection on us.

READ: 1969 Oil spill 

QUESTIONS:

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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As much as_________ gallons was NOAA's estimate of spill pollution.

MOST WEATHER IS OCEAN WEATHER (It actually matters to the farmer in Kansas)

In 1969 we did NOT know about El Ninos.   The complete role of ocean currents in climatology was not fully understood.  But it became obvious very quickly as we discovered more and more about how the ocean works.  Meteorologists really had to look at more than the atmospherics.   

The planet is mostly covered by ocean, we know that.  WE also know that an ENSO (El Nino Southern-Oscillation) event changes weather around the planet, most notably around the Pacific Ocean. We now know that the ocean- atmosphere system has patterns and cycles.  The current and patterns of heat flow dictate the strength and patterns of storms.  Ocean heat content plays a key role in the jet stream and the development of Rossby waves. IN December 2016 atmospheric waves took warm air to the north pole, where it was 32 degrees, when it is usually -30.  AT the same time the other side of the Rossby waves (south moving currents) delivered the "polar express" of cold air back to United States.  With larger Rossby waves, atmospheric rivers, of tropical moisture can travel to higher latitudes and at the same time can bring cold air masses farther to the south.  In this situation you would expect to experience a cycle of extremes in temperature both warm and cold,  and you will see more intense storms and precipitation.  Along the Rossby "jet stream" wave radically different air masses (cold-dry and warm-humid) come together in the swirls of these waves to form mid-latitude cyclones.  These storms are larger and occasionally much more destructive than hurricanes. Over the ocean, these winter, mid-latitude storms are the source of giant ocean swells and can be as fierce and larger than imagined.   IN the tropical zones, the ocean heat energy feeds tropical storms, that in summer months may become hurricanes or typhoons (same thing-different place). These systems form in subtropical ocean areas that have no jet stream.   Once formed if conditions are right these tropical cyclones can self reinforce, grow larger and control the atmosphere.  IN the process they help disperse the energy that builds up in the tropics.   Recent rain events along the west coast have seen large amounts of moisture and heat ride in from the tropics.   IN 2017 one series of storms involved an atmospheric river of air that hit California which had been riding the jet stream river from low latitudes near the Indian Ocean and Himalayas.  AS the planet warms up these rivers of heat and moisture could be increasing as the Earth trys to equalize temperature.    One of the changes

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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could be the increased amplitude of these Rossby waves.  It turns out that a slow moving jet stream can end up providing a powerful dynamic to mid latitude weather.  A slower moving stream meanders more which can juxtapose cold and warm-humid air together, creating energetic storm systems.   

LOOK AT: April 2019 El NINO UPDATE

See what s happening now and what to expect this winter. EL NINO CURRENTS-CALIFORNIA WEATHER- A look at southern California weather (rainfall) as it relates to the Oceanic El Nino Index Los Angeles CA, DOES EL NINO MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

WET WINTERS:  Eastern Pacific water temperature variations (ONI) from 1950-2017.  Plotted IN larger red numbers are the yearly rainfall totals that exceed 20 inches in Los Angeles California.  Since 1950 there have been 17 years where it rained 20 inches or more in LA.   So about 25% of the time LA will get 5 inches more than it's long term average (14.77).  Lets call that a wet winter.  There have been 24 years in the last 67 when LA received 5 inches below the average. So LA will have drier winters about 35% of the time.  A close to normal season will occur about 40% of the time.   Its hard to NOT notice the correlation between the El Nino ocean currents and rainfall in southern California. OF the 17 rainy years n LA over the last 67 years, 14 have been related to an El Nino. 

ECOSYSTEM CHANGES

OCEAN CURRENT CHANGES LIKE EL NINOS CAN HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON OCEAN ECOSYSTEMS

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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What are few kinds of organisms that decrease when the current warms? What else is revealed by this long term data set? How deep does the CC extend? How is upwelling involved? What might change about the upwelling process in the future?

The spring of 2005 brought El Nino like changes in weather to the Ventura Channel and a decrease in northwest winds along the coast which play a key factor in deep water upwelling.

DEEP WATER COASTAL UPWELLING DRIVEN BY WIND AND EKMAN TRANSPORT. Water driven by winds moves to the right of the wind direction in the northern hemisphere. Animation at right shows how northerly winds along the coast of California have the effect of pushing water away from the land.

OCEAN CURRENTS- CHANGES

READ: CHANGES TO THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT

QUESTIONS:

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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READ: ECOSYSTEMS AND OCEAN CURRENTS

What are the three primary mechanisms by which El NINOS will effect ecosystems? Know what

advection means....heat transfer by fluid flow Give an example of poleward transprotation. What is habitat compression? How does stratification of ocean waters change ecosystems?

Can you see the patterns caused by ocean currents? How about the coastal productivity effects? Note the seasonal variations.

EL NINO (ENSO) and CALIFORNIA ECOSYSTEM CHANGES

QUESTIONS:

OCEAN CURCULATION AND PRODUCTIVITY WATCH: PLANKTON BLOOMS--SEAWIFS; EARTH BREATHING (PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY DISTIBUTION AND CYCLES)

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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Animation of the temporal evolution of ocean a…

As we look to the future, acidification might further stress the California Current ecosystem?

What is a deep water conveyor? How does the conveyor work? What are driving factors and patterns?

READ: TOXIC BLOOM 2015 MONTEREY BAY

What was the cause(s) of the 2015 Toxic Bloom?

WATCH: Temporal evolution of ocean acidification in the California Current System

DEEP OCEAN CURRENTS AND CLIMATE DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION (THERMOHALINE)

REFERENCE: THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION (not required but informative)

WATCH AND READ: NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC-Currents and Climate Change (BASICS)

READ: POTENTIAL DEEP WATER CIRCULATION CHANGES Published at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

READ: DEEP CURRENTS AND CLIMATE

QUESTIONS:

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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What are possible changes that are debated to occur as the planet warms? AS far as carbon absorption goes, sinking water obviously involves orgainic carbon moving to the ocean floor, but what might change as CO2 continues to build up deep in the ocean?

Jennifer Francis - Understanding the Jetstream …

Weather in a tank

CHANGE IN THE WEATHER

MIDLATITUDE WEATHER CHANGES

WATCH: JET STREAM-Jennifer Francis - Understanding the Jetstream

WATCH: Weather in a tank, making Rossby waves

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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ATMOSPHERIC WAVES

MIT Senior Lecturer explains the patterns produced in a spinning tank to model the flow of atmospheric fluids (that move just like water).  Fluids flowing in a rotating space are forces to curve and spin as they flow.  These are Rossby waves.  As air moves in a fluid dynamic way on a rotating sphere, there are changes in angular momentum and space problems that cause the wave like patterns to develop.  AS these waves develop in the Jet stream they control the flow and movement direction of storms.  IN the cases of extreme Rossby waves, warm air can be taken all the way to the poles as cold air is brought to lower latitudes.  With these large amplitude Rossby waves weather winter temperature fluctuations, say in Minnesota can vary widely.

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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NASA | A Year in the Life of Earth's CO2

YouTube URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1SgmFa0r04

WATCH: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Visualization--Also showing Rossby wave circulation

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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What changes in American weather are seen when the jet stream becomes more wave like? How do planetary waves relate to arctic warming?

What are some reasons why Jet streams movements become more wavey?

How does the jet stream both warm certain areas and cool other areas at the same time?

READ: WAVES IN THE ATMOSPHERE FUELING EXTREME WEATHER

QUESTIONS:

READ: Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes

QUESTIONS:

ADVANCED READING- PLEASE SKIM, it is actually very interesting

MIDLATITUDES -ROSSBY WAVES (CHANGES IN FLOW RATES AND PATTERNS)

SKIM: ROBERT SCRIBBLER BLOG FROM SEPT 2016, This guy knows what hes talking about. In this blog post, he explains recent changes to the mid-latitudes and how atmospheric waves move the heat and cold around.

Visualize the Rivers of Air ONE OF THE BEST JET STREAM MODELS SHOWS THE WAVES IN REAL TIME AND PROJECTS THEM INTO THE FUTURE

STORM SURF-JET STREAM 250mb MODEL

TROPIC WEATHER CHANGES

READ: TYPHOON INTESNITY

QUESTIONS:

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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Why might typhoons be getting stronger in the western Pacific Ocean?

Why not in the eastern Pacific?

PLIOCENE-PLEISTOCENE CHANGES,

Are we headed to a new PLIOCENE-like time?

A Tale of Two Oceans tells of the big difference between the Pliocene and Pleistocene. What were some of the global changes? (select all that apply)

How much warmer was it in the Pliocene? What was different about ocean ecosystems? What were the eastern Pacific ocean conditions like? What geographic change also made a difference about 3.7 million years ago?

A WORLD WITHOUT ICE?

LOOKING TO THE PAST AND THE FUTURE READ: A TALE OF TWO OCEANS

QUESTIONS:

A) a change from a strong thermocline....... to one that promotes more upwelling

B) .......significant changes in surface and deep ocean currents

C) a change from no ice caps......... to the development of extensive ice caps

D) a change from a more permanent EL Nino......... to a more La Nina like normal

E) A change from a time of enhanced productivity........ to a time of low productivity

READ: A world without ice PDF

READ: The Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum THE PETM

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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How fast did carbon accumulate in the atmosphere to cause the PETM climate excursion? How does that Eocene rate compare to our anthropogenic rate? Looking at the long term climate change in last 65 million years, how much has it cooled off since the peak of the Eocene? In what geologic epoch of the Cenezoic did rapid glacial cycling begin?

QUESTIONS:

SOME DATA ON ARCTIC WARMING FREEZING DEGREES DAYS (degrees temperature under 0) eg. if on three days its -5, -7, -5 that would be 17, for a year its in the thousands)

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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NOTE: 2016-2017 year shows the least degree/time spent below 0 degrees. This is one indication of warming, how cold it gets for how many days.

also note change in 2004-5 and then again in 2016-17

ALBEDO WARMING POTENTIAL

also note change in 2004-5 and then again in 2016-17---ITS HAPPENING !!!!

CURRICULUM CONNECTION- SCIENTISTS' DIRE WARNING

2019/6/27 UNIT 5-WEATHER, CLIMATE and CHANGE – OCEAN320-01-Summer2019

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Earth under THREAT: Humans must do THIS to save the planet, according to scientists

Warning to Humanity: 15,000 scientists say damage irreversible

NASA-CLIMATE TIME MACHINE

https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine