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Running head: EXPLORING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE MQ-8B FIRE SCOUT 1

EXPLORING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF UNMANNED AERIEL VEHICLES 16

Exploring the Effectiveness of the MQ-8B Fire Scout to provision Humanitarian Efforts Post Natural Disasters

Henry Vascones

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

ASCI 691 Graduate Capstone Project Proposal

Submitted to the Worldwide Campus

in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of

Master of Science in Aeronautics

February 2020

Abstract

In this study, the effectiveness of the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) in the provision of humanitarian aid during natural disasters will be evaluated. The viability of using UAVs will be studied by looking at the ability to access areas affected by natural disasters unreachable by traditional means as well as the costs incurred in the endeavor. The viability will be evaluated by comparing the abilities and costs of using UAVs and disaster response utility trucks that are typically used in disaster management. The research will attempt to determine if UAVs can provide humanitarian aid in areas affected by natural disasters while simultaneously realizing an economic benefit. UAVs will be compared to traditional delivery methods such as manned flight and emergency response utility vehicles. A model depicting the advantages and costs of using UAVs and emergency response vehicles in humanitarian aid delivery will be developed. The study will use quantitative data collected from existing literature from the Insurance Information Institute, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and the Transportation Research Board on UAVs and manned systems as a means of obtaining a solution to the research problem above.

Keywords: UAVs, natural disasters, earthquakes

Proposal

The research presented in this proposal will be an analysis use of Unmanned Aerial MQ-8B Fire Scout for delivery of humanitarian aid during natural disasters. The graduate capstone proposal (GCP) will cover applicable concepts in the Aeronautical Science field as well as concepts for Aviation Aerospace Safety Systems and Unmanned Aerospace Systems specializations.

Objective

The problem to be addressed in this study is loss of human life during natural disasters which could possibly be prevented or reduced through enhance delivery of humanitarian aid. According to Luo et al. (2017), the earthquake that hit Haiti in 2010 claimed about 160,000 lives. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami left about 360,000 people dead and more than 1,300,000 others displaced (Luo et al., 2017). While there were efforts taken to deliver humanitarian aid in both instances, the use of manned systems proved to be limited to areas that presented less risk to the rescue teams and was marred with breakdowns. This study will compare mishap rates for the MQ-8B Fire Scout and the human operated MH-60 Sea Hawk in such instances. As such, the analysis will evaluate which between manned aircraft and UAVs are the most effective in timely provision of humanitarian aid during natural disasters as a means of preventing loss of human lives.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles were initially designed and used for specific military missions. Their use has expanded. It is now used in such fields as: surveillance, research, agriculture, and more. The use of UAVs has been instrumental in enabling access to areas too dangerous to deploy human beings (Valavanis & Vachtsevanos, 2015).

UAVs have been involved in search and rescue missions during disasters (Polka et al., 2017). The primary reason UAVs are preferred for search and rescue missions is the life of the pilot is not put at risk while the mission is conducted. The invention of UAV technology has demonstrated positive results in both the military and civilian sectors, and has bridged an existing gap that could not be filled by pre-existing technology (Kimchi et al., 2017). In cases of natural disasters such as floods, mud slides, and avalanches, search and rescue teams face continual challenges accessing the unstable areas to deliver the much-needed assistance and aid. It has been shown to be most difficult accessing affected people in the rural and mountainous areas not easily accessible by land-based vehicles. The research aims at analyzing how to reduce the risk of manned air crew and effectively provide humanitarian aid during natural disasters with UAVs.

Scope

This study will evaluate the effectiveness of using the MQ-8B Fire Scout in the provisioning of humanitarian aid in areas that have been hit by disasters. The research will be in reference to the rates of mishaps of the MQ-8B compared to the MH-60. When disasters strike, deployment of human rescuers may be curtailed by hazards that are associated with the disasters. (Gomez & Purdie, 2017). The hazards caused by disasters necessitate the use of UAVs. Apart from providing humanitarian aid in a timelier manner compared to other means, UAVs ensure rescuers are not exposed to the hazards associated with rescue work. The main focus of this research will be the Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout which has a track record of successful military missions (Grumman, 2015). The research will look at how the Fire Scout can be used mutually for military operations as well its capacity for provisioning humanitarian aid. Given their available speed and ability to access high risk places, MQ-8B Fire Scout can offer a solution to the existing problem (Gomez & Purdie, 2017).

This research is aimed at answering the following research questions: How viable is the deployment of the MQ-8B Fire Scout for a more expedient and cost-effective solution to delivering humanitarian aid? The research will analyze the advantages and disadvantages that could be associated with the use of the MQ-8B Fire Scout for identifying victims, water drops for wildfire hotspots, and first aid drops for survivors post natural disaster. If the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, then it would be considered effective and vice versa. The research can be seen as an analysis of the effectiveness of the MQ-8B Fire Scout as an additional method to delivering humanitarian aid (Gomez & Purdie, 2017).

The hypothesis below is to be tested using the t-test hypothesis testing method to evaluate the effectiveness of the MQ-8B Fire Scout in areas affected by disasters. The effectiveness will be measured in terms of the UAVs delays as caused by accident rates during provision of services in disaster-stricken areas (Malandrino et al., 2019).

H0: There is no statistical difference in safety when using the Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout when compared to manned vehicles to provision humanitarian aid in areas affected by a disaster.

H1: There is a statistical difference in safety when using the Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout when compared to manned vehicles to provision humanitarian aid in areas affected by a disaster.

Methodology

In the proposed study, quantitative research methods will be used to analyze existing data on the usability of UAVs in disaster-stricken areas. A mathematical model will be developed to replicate mishaps which may occur during the logistics process in humanitarian aid. This method will provide objective, data-based evidence regarding the prospects of employing UAVs in disaster-stricken areas. (Gomez & Purdie, 2017). A qualitative study would be insufficient to satisfy the hypothesis given its subjectivity and inability to sufficiently answer the research questions outlined above.

Developing the Model

Data provided by a model created by Choudhury et al. (2017) will be used in this study. The model replicates the mishap rates to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of the MQ-8B compared to the MH-60 in disaster-stricken areas, several guidelines will be followed. The logistics network is expressed in the form of smooth continuous functions. The logistics network is represented in a two-dimensional space with demand points represented by discrete points within the service area in the two-dimensional space (Gomez & Purdie, 2017). The demand for humanitarian aid in the demand points will be modelled as Poisson processes. Using the model created by Gomez and Purdie, different scenarios will be simulated to obtain the said data.

The model will incorporate the rates of mishaps for both the MQ-8B and the MH-60 in different types of disasters and landscapes. More specifically, the two modes of delivery will be compared in terms of mishap rates in mountainous landscapes, shrub lands, coasts and wetlands. The rates are encountered in such disasters as hurricanes, tsunamis, fires and earthquakes will also be integrated in the model to ensure it depicts the real-world mishaps rates.

Such factors as speed and ability to access the disaster-stricken areas will be incorporated into the model. UAVs are faster and have the ability to be deployed in areas that may be inaccessible to disaster response utility trucks. As such, these factors will be given weights, with UAVs expected to have higher scores in the weights compared to disaster response utility trucks (Gomez & Purdie, 2017).

The model, therefore, will be used to compare the rates of mishaps in a simulated scenario. The viability of the use of UAVs in provision will be evaluated by using this method. The rates of mishaps for MQ-8B Fire Scout will be compared with those of the MH-60. A t-test will be carried out on the independent means of mishap rates for both aircraft systems. If the P-value that will be obtained during the hypothesis will be less than the chosen alpha value, the null hypothesis (H0) will be rejected. If the P-value is greater than the chosen alpha value, then the null hypothesis will be upheld.

To ensure the model is consistent with real-world scenarios, the costs of providing humanitarian aid will be tested using a real-world scenario where an area has a high prevalence of disasters will be chosen. In this study, data collected from the Mississippi of Hancock, Jackson, and Harrison which were struck by a hurricane for two days in 2005 will be used (Gomez & Purdie, 2017). The assumptions stated above will be maintained and the results will be compared against those of getting from the simulation and the consistency levels will be recorded.

A major limitation of this study is the fact the costs of using UAVs are drawn from the use of the Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout UAV. However, different UAV models have different costs which make this research to lose generalizability. However, the model in the proposed research will mitigate this limitation by allowing flexibility in the parameters so that costs for different models can be inculcated and the effectiveness estimated (Wang et al., 2019).

The proposed study will follow the ethical guidelines regarding the use of data from MQ-8B Fire Scout manufacturer to the letter. If there is information whose authority to publish is not provided, the proposed research will not use it as such. The information that will be used for manned systems will as well be retrieved from trusted databases.

Summary

The proposed study's quantitative analysis of data will enable the development of a model to estimate the effectiveness of using UAVs in the provisioning of humanitarian aid in disaster-stricken areas. The model will be instrumental in determining if the Fire Scout is suitable to conduct humanitarian aid mission’s comparative to manned systems. Such factors as the speed of deployment as well as the ability of the selected mode of deployment aid will be effectively incorporated into the model.

Statement of How Capstone Outcomes Will Be Met

1. Demonstrate problem-solving skills using scientific research methods.

Problem-solving skills using scientific research methods will be demonstrated by the application of the basic scientific approach to solving problems. This problem-solving approach occurs in five different stages (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016) The first stage involves identifying and analyzing a problem. The proposed research identifies the problem of supplying humanitarian aid in areas affected by such natural disasters as floods and fires among others. The problem is deeply analyzed and it is realized conventional methods of deploying aid in such areas may be rendered ineffective. It is ineffective because most transport systems in these areas are ground-based and become affected by the disasters making it almost impossible to access them. Where accessible, the risks to human life that are associated with the disasters make it even more difficult to deploy manned vehicles or planes to these areas. This risk requires coming up with a solution to this problem scientifically (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016).

The second step is the formation of a hypothesis. The proposed study details a hypothesis that UAVs could be used to solve the problem of inaccessibility in areas stricken by disasters. The research will be built around this hypothesis. It will attempt to evaluate if the proposed solution can indeed be used to solve the identified problem (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016).

The last step in problem-solving is reporting the results of the research (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016). In the proposed study, the findings of the study will be inculcated in the research report. Once the above steps are effectively completed, problem-solving skills using scientific research methods are shown will be demonstrated.

2. Demonstrate Graduate Level Writing Ability in APA Format.

Graduate-level writing ability in APA format will be demonstrated by proper writing mechanics and formatting. The research report will be tailored in such a manner the used text consists of fluid information, free from grammatical and spelling mistakes. The paper will be formatted according to the current APA format. Citations will be provided for ideas that are sourced from other people’s publications and references will be provided at the end of the report. The citations and references will be formatted according to the APA format.

3. Demonstrate Professional Communication and Oral Presentation Skills.

A professional tone will be used throughout the report to demonstrate professional communication skills (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016). At no point will first-person pronouns be used in the research. Neither will be possessive language be used to describe anything in the research. The research will represent as a professional piece of work expected at the graduate level.

4. Demonstrate Ability to Evaluate Current Industry Issues Using Critical Thinking skills.

The proposed study will address disaster management within the realms of aviation aerospace. Disaster management is an area currently being considered to shape disaster management more efficiently and practically. Governments and humanitarian aid organizations are constantly looking at UAVs as the best approach to be used for addressing the problems brought about by disasters.

The research will also demonstrate critical thinking skills by detailing a solution to the problems brought about by disasters and by the adoption of advanced technology (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016). The objective of the proposed research is to come up with a solution to the elevated number of deaths associated natural disasters. The research will integrate critical thinking skills as a means of getting a solution to the proposed problem.

5. Demonstrate of Use Technology Appropriate to Industry Requirements.

The proposed study will be dealing with a wide margin of UAV operations. More specifically, the study will be focusing on Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout. The estimated costs of using UAVs in disaster management will be based on a real-life application of the MQ-8B Fire Scout. The battery and fuel requirements for the UAV will be used to calculate the costs of operation. At every stage of UAV flight, the costs will be used in the overall estimation process are the ones provided by its manufacturer (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016). By using the manufacturer data, the technology being used to solve the identified problem will be tailored to reflect the industry requirements of a typical Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout.

6. Apply an Ethical and Professional Framework in Decision Making.

Professional framework in decision making will be demonstrated by following a universally accepted decision-making process. The professional framework follows five steps whose successful completion indicates the decision has been made professionally (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016). The first step involves defining the problem. As such, the proposed research will effectively define the problem at hand which is evaluating the viability of the use of UAVs in the provisioning of humanitarian aid.

The second step in demonstrating a professional decision-making framework is gathering information regarding the problem. The proposed research will undertake a literature review on the topic of the use of UAVs in the provisioning of humanitarian aid. The review will provide the required information to guide the researcher as they undertake the research. The information collected in the literature review will be objectively analyzed as a means of drawing different insights from the same facts that have been collected. Once information is analyzed, different options for solving the problem at hand will be developed. As such, this research will present both the use of response vehicles and UAVs as solutions to the problems brought about by disasters.

The delays caused by mishaps in both options will be compared, and the better option will be chosen using the developed model. Lastly, professional decision-making frameworks demand that the results that are obtained from a decision-making process are tested to ensure that indeed the solution is the best out of the developed options (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016). In this study, the model that will be evaluated will be tested in a real-world situation to ensure that the results of the model simulation are consistent with the results of the hypothesis testing process.

Ethical frameworks will be adhered to by reporting data for which authority to use has been issued. Any information that will be used regarding the MQ-8B Fire Scout from Northrop Grumman will be obtained from their databases by requesting the authority to use them where necessary (Çaparlar, & Dönmez, 2016). As well, data and ideas that will be obtained from other people’s work will be designated as such.

Specialization Outcomes

The proposed study will ensure that the capstone specialization outcomes will be met in the following specializations.

Aviation Aerospace Safety Systems

The proposed study will provide ways in which different perils exist in the use of UAVs. While there are fewer risks to human life when using UAVs, the use of UAVs in congested aerospace is risky (Valavanis & Vachtsevanos, 2015). As well, high-density air is also a risk factor in the safety of UAVs. As such, the proposed study will delve into information regarding their use in the provisioning of humanitarian aid in areas where the disasters themselves create risks in the usage of UAVs.

Unmanned Aerospace Systems

The proposed research is based on the application of unmanned aerospace vehicles. More specifically, it aims at evaluating how effective it would be to deploy UAVs to provide humanitarian aid in areas that have been hit by disasters. The research will evaluate how UAVs have been used in the past for military purposes. However, their use has now been extended to such fields as, surveillance, research, and agriculture among many more. The research will also describe how UAVs can be instrumental in enhancing access to areas that are too dangerous to deploy human beings (Valavanis & Vachtsevanos, 2015).

References

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Çaparlar, C. Ö., & Dönmez, A. (2016). What is scientific research and how can it be done? Turkish journal of anesthesiology and reanimation, 44(4), 212. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5019873/

Chowdhury, S., Emelogu, A., Marufuzzaman, M., Nurre, S. G., & Bian, L. (2017). Drones for disaster response and relief operations: A continuous approximation model. International Journal of Production Economics188, 167-184. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925527317301172

Dodge, J. (2015). MQ-8 Fire Scout Unmanned Aircraft System (MQ-8 Fire Scout). US Navy Patuxent River United States. Retrieved from https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1019503

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Malandrino, F., Rottondi, C., Chiasserini, C. F., Bianco, A., & Stavrakakis, I. (2019, July). Multiservice UAVs for Emergency Tasks in Post-disaster Scenarios. In Proceedings of the ACM MobiHoc workshop on innovative aerial communication solutions for FIrst REsponders network in emergency scenarios (pp. 18-23). Retrieved from https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3331053.3335032

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