Business plan
Turbulence
Turbulence
Main issues?
Changeability
Complexity? How simple or complex?
Degree of novelty? Experienced previously? Very different from past?
Predictability
Rate of change? Fast or slow?
Visibility? Forecastable or unpredictable? Can you see it coming over the horizon?
Key Questions:
Is the external environment too unpredictable to make useful forecasts?
Measure the degree of turbulence
Low Medium High
Changeability Level
How much is technology changing in your industry?
How many new competitors are coming in?
Low Medium High
Predictability Level
Are the technology changes predictable in your industry?
Is the competition in your industry predicatable?
Low Medium High
The next slide shows an example of how these charts can be done .
(Of course, this one was done for Porter’s Five Forces . But it can be adapted for your purpose.)
Turbulence level