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Copyright © Society for College and University Planning (SCUP). All rights reserved. | Planning for Higher Education 51

Trends IN HIGHER EDUCATION

by Phyllis T. H. Grummon, Ph. D. | Director, Planning and Education Society for College and University Planning

Demographics | Economics | Environment | Global Education | Learning | Politics | Technology

volume 6 n2

The lack of a substantial increase in employment continues to affect higher education in the US and around the globe. Even the brightest economic predictions see only modest gains, and again the promise of ‘it’s never going back the way it was’. Some higher education givens erode—tenure for one. Some schools are so overwhelmed with students that little else can be done but cope. Distance education has proven more effective for students than face-to-face. Is online education mostly an expansion of access and not a zero sum game, as many have assumed? Our overriding question is whether the series of incremental changes we’ve seen in the last 15 or so years will finally cause a paradigm shift in the way higher education conceptualizes itself.

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Demographics

Observation In the past, demographics were destiny for higher education—if birthrates increased, then enrollment could be predicted to increase 18 years later. The global market for education has done more than simply provide nuances to that predictability; it’s made global demographics and economics a driver everywhere.

people between 20 and 24 will drop by one-fourth in the next decade and by 2050 there will be only 2.1 working- age adults for each retiree (China Daily eClips, www.cdeclips.com/en/opinion/fullstory.html?id=28044).

Philadelphia Inquirer,

Globe and Mail, May 18, 2009, v1.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/

with an estimated value to receiving countries of US$60 billion (University World News, September 27, 2009, Issue

Our Thoughts The dominance of English-speaking tertiary providers, the US, Australia, and the UK, is no longer assured when students seek a portable, prestigious degree.

Inside HigherEd, October 6, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/10/05/global).

The Guardian, October

significant number of them due to a serious visa backlog that has resulted in over 14,000 Pakistani students alone being barred (The Guardian, October 14, 2009, www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/oct/14/overseas-students-fees-visas).

to the economic slowdown and a drop in aid from US colleges, it may be more permanent than some wish (The Economic Times,

Trends in Higher Education

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Observation The economy is likely to have a long-term effect on enrollments. The mix of students will remain in flux and differ among publics, privates, and for-profit institutions. The “job-less recovery” is predicted to continue for at least five years (The New York Times, October 2, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/business/ economy/03jobs.html?_r=1).

is likely to persist (Bloomberg.com, Inside HigherEd,

“Projections of Education Statistics to 2018”, www.edpubs.org).

two-thirds of students’ college choices, with more opting for public institutions and community colleges (The College Board and Art & Science Group, LLC, USA Today, March 25,

“Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Understanding Adult Learning Trends to Predict Future Opportunities”,

Our Thoughts The message that higher education around the world has been sending for years—a degree means successful employment at higher pay—is clearly being played out. The students want to attend, but how will they pay for it?

Teachers College Record, most likely to be considered in deciding where to go to college, whether 2-year or 4-year were ‘affordable/financial’ and ‘location’ (Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, neces.ed.gov/das/).

adjusted for inflation (The New York Times, September 11, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/us/11poverty.html?sc

time enrollment increased only 5 percent. The total share of two-year colleges’ undergraduate enrollment rose to 41

this shift from 4-year to 2-year institutions is likely to continue increasing more quickly than originally predicted (National Center for Education Statistics,

Pew Research Center, October 29, 2009, pewsocialtrends.org).

Economics

Observation Students’ ability to find funding for college took many hits this fall, including the loss of state scholarship programs, lack of job options, and increased tuition.

reduced eligibility for state scholarship programs—some after students had already enrolled for the fall semester (The Miami Herald, The New York Times, USA Today, The Detroit Free Press, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, content/metro/stories/2009/04/26/georgia_scholarship_eliminated.html).

that there are no guarantees even for the thrifty (Stateline,

of students they are funding (The New York Times, June 27, 2009).

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Our Thoughts Students and parents are looking to institutions and lenders to help fill the gaps from state-sponsored programs. Changes in federal funding should help, but are unlikely to meet either need or the goals set by the administration.

the web and among strangers (The New York Times,

The Chicago Tribune, sns-yourmoney-086loans,0,0674248.story).

of institutions (USA Today,

certificate or bachelor’s programs (College Board, The

Project on Student Debt,

Observation Like the proverbial deer in the headlights, institutions around the world are coping with reduced funding and often using similar tactics for cost containment and revenue enhancement (University World News, July 5, 2009, www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090703122659593).

Thirty-five states are assuming reduced fiscal resources will be available in 2010, while 42 states were forced to reduce their previously enacted 2009 budgets (National Governor’s Association, National Association of State Budget Officers,

The New York Times, July 18, 2009, nytimes.com/2009/07/18/

and even who pays for them (anyone who is willing to donate to support a course (The San Francisco Chronicle, June Inside Higher Ed, September

11, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/views/sloane/sloane29).

American Association of State Colleges and Universities; The Chronicle of Higher Education,

Our Thoughts The Higher Education Price Index (HEPI), as well as tuition, continues to outpace the Consumer Price Index (CPI), even though it dropped from 5 percent to 2.3 percent. Some are asking if higher education will be the next ‘bubble’ to burst (The Commonfund Institute, September 9, 2009, www.commonfund.org/Commonfund/ Archive/CF+Institute/2009+0909+HEPI+Press+Release.htm; The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 22, 2009, chronicle.com/weekly/v55/i37/37a05601.htm).

Virtually all the other components of the index had lower increases this fiscal year than last (The Commonfund Institute, elease.htm).

tuition and fees have risen by 440 percent—more than four times the rate of inflation and almost twice the rate of health care costs (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, June 29, 2009, www.

Environment

Observation China is now the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases. The US and China now account for some 40 percent of the world’s emissions (The McKinsey Quarterly, M. Joerss, J. Woetzel, and H. Zhang, May 2009, “China’s Green Opportunity”; The New York Times, June 8, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/world/08treaty.html?_r =1&scp=2&sq=global+warming&st=nyt).

8 percent (Knowledge@Wharton,

China Daily eClips, html?id=14685).

(Knowledge@Wharton,

Our Thoughts Chinese leaders pronounce important green goals and policies, but it’s still a long way from seeing them implemented at the local level. They may want continued GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 8–9 percent, but it seems to come with skyrocketing pollution problems and an unwillingness to compromise with other countries.

terbium—that are vital to the manufacturing of hybrid cars, cell phones, large wind turbines, and computer monitors. It produces more than 99 percent of the world’s supply (The New York Times, September 1, 2009, www.nytimes.

creating toxic emissions that fall across the world. (The New York Times,

coal-fired plants being built without permits (Knowledge@Wharton, article.cfm?articleid=2254).

Observation Increasingly, technology is contributing to greenhouse gas emissions across the world. Research indicates that at a minimum, 2 percent of the global atmospheric carbon emissions can be traced to the information technology industry (Knowledge@Wharton, September 3, 2008, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article. cfm?articleid=2040).

(EDUCAUSE Center for Applied Research,

has contributed to inefficiencies (The Chronicle of Higher Education, January 9, 2009, chronicle.com/free/v55/

Our Thoughts Unfortunately, on many campuses physical plant is in charge of energy use and IT has yet to be tapped for its ability to provide solutions that reduce energy consumption across a wide variety of venues.

Nature, September 10, 2009, v 461, p 154-55).

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expected as the cost of energy rises with economic recovery (The McKinsey Quarterly,

Global Education

Observation China’s ability to rapidly expand its higher education system is bearing fruit, and could well accelerate, as its economy has suffered far less than others in the global economic downturn (China Daily eClips, November 5, 2009, www.cdeclips.com/en/nation/fullstory.html?id=33032).

close to the numbers found in the US and the European Union (University World News, December 14, 2008, universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20081212095956597).

Arab News,

and providing support for 5,000 of its best graduate students to study abroad (University World News, universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090528175524756).

Our Thoughts China has invested in higher education for many of the same reasons all nations do. What effects are those investments likely to have on the world of tertiary education?

options (The New York Times,

The Chronicle of Higher Education,

to help universities teach Mandarin and collaborate on research within mainstream university programs (University World News,

Observation At the first United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Conference on Higher Education in 1998 there about 100 million students enrolled in postsecondary education around the world. At the conference held in July 2009, it was estimated that there are close to 150 million (Inside HigherEd, July 7, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/07/07/unesco).

access, affordability, and quality—particularly for developing nations (UNESCO,

their state-supported institutions of higher education that is unlikely to be met by traditional face-to-face instruction (Inside HigherEd, July 7, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/07/07/unesco).

quality and remains a concern of many higher education leaders (The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 9, 2009,

Our Thoughts While global tertiary education leaders focused on how to deliver opportunity across the world, rankings continue to drive investments in research, not in access (University World News, May 24, 2009, www. universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090521174410568).

University World News,

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Institute of International Education,

(Newsweek,

Learning

Observation Research on the learning outcomes of online education has demonstrated that it’s at least the equivalent, if not better, than the outcomes of just face-to-face courses. Blended learning provides the greatest benefits of all (Center for Technology in Learning, B. Means, Y. Toyama, R. Murphy, M. Bakia, and K. Jones (2009), US Department of Education, Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy Development, Policy and Program Studies Service, www.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-based-practices/finalreport.doc).

that online students spend engaging the course content and the instructor (Review of Educational Research,

District reinforces the finding that it’s the teacher that makes the difference, not necessarily the number of students (eSchool News, May 29, 2009, eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=58946).

Sloan Consortium,

Our Thoughts Ubiquitous learning is here. Students no longer have to show up in a bricks-and-mortar building to achieve their learning goals, they’ve become ‘free agents.’

Net Day Speak Up 2008, www. netdayspeakup.org/Speakup2008/) found that the largest digital disconnect is between what students are learning and living outside of school, and the technology they work with in school (T.H.E. Journal,

lang=en). eSchool News,

2009, eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/?i=58076).

an 18-week period scored significantly higher on district benchmark tests than the students in the control group (eSchool News,

Observation Students need to have increased involvement with the assessment of learning outcomes, particularly if institutions are serious about documenting the range of knowledge and skills that result from postsecondary education.

percent of the chief academic officers responding thought ‘all students’ understood the intended learning outcomes of Hart Research Associates,

lead to improved achievement, did not increase early dropout rates, and created a biased test that did not help females

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Hart Research Associates,

Our Thoughts E-portfolios offer an assessment option that can cut across formal, informal, and occupational learning. Allowing students to own their work makes e-portfolios more effective, but requires increased trust and valid rubrics.

course, contributes to difficulty in making them portable (Campus Technology, March 11, 2009, campustechnology.

only 42 percent reported using them as part of their assessment efforts (Hart Research Associates,

Inside HigherEd, March 5,

Politics

Observation The new administration has pushed for changes in higher education, from increased Pell Grant funding to direct student loans. Not everything has passed both houses of Congress, but the implications are already being anticipated.

software systems can effectively handle the changes (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

eSchool News, July 8, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=59549).

the post-baccalaureate placement rate (Association for Institutional Research, March 2009, www.airweb.org/e-air/current/ Inside Higher Ed,

Our Thoughts The debate over health care legislation has stalled many of the administration’s educational initiatives. Although there is no resolution yet, it’s hard to see how health care changes won’t affect higher education students, faculty, and staff.

forward so far (The New York Times, September 14, 2009, nytimes.com/2009/09/14/health/policy/14nonprofit.html?_

More are requiring students to purchase reasonably expensive student health insurance through the school, regardless of other coverage (The Boston Globe, student_health_plans/).

time and money spent without the reward of reduced costs and higher quality of care (Federal Computer Week, 7, 2009, fcw.com/articles/2009/08/10/feat-is-the-nhin--ready-for-health-it-stimulus.aspx?sc_lang=en).

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Observation National, but not federal, standards for K-12 mathematics and English are being developed under the auspices of the Council of Chief State School Officers and the National Governors Association. Called the Common Core State Standards initiative, every state but Texas has agreed to participate (www.corestandards.org; Inside Higher Ed, September 21, 2009, insidehighered.com/news/2009/09/21/core).

Education Sector, June 2009,

educationsector.org).

not valid as campus-wide indicators of learning outcomes (Center for Studies in Higher Education, 2009, G. Thomson

be used to answer the questions most frequently posed by the public (Education Sector,

Our Thoughts States are competing for $4.35 billion in grant funding through the “Race to the Top” initiative for K-12 schools. In order to qualify, state legislatures have to pass reform bills that include expansion of charter schools and a mechanism for rewarding and retaining the best teachers (eSchool News, November 12, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=61767).

education?

own standards for student success was maintained (Inside Higher Ed, May 20, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/ news/2009/05/20/accredit).

most people agree there is both not enough capacity nor a sufficient need for everyone to accomplish that goal (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

Technology

Observation IT security on campuses has continued to evolve, but it still faces many challenges, some external, but most internal.

The New York Times,

portable media (EDUCAUSE,

JMC Privacy Consulting Group,

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Our Thoughts The federal government has initiated a stronger stance on cyber-security, making it part of the national security system (“Cyberspace Policy Review”, May 2009, whitehouse.gov/assets/.../Cyberspace_Policy_Review_ final.pdf)

(Federal Computer Week, September 9, 2009, fcw.com/articles/2009/09/09/open-identity-groups-collaborate-with- federal-agencies.aspx?sc_lang=en)

campuses had suffered a security breach in the last year (eCampus News, June 11, 2009, www.ecampusnews.com/news/ top-news/?i=59161).

the help of higher level security programs, people on campus are the ones most likely to introduce viruses, botnets, and other alien programs into a campus’ system (EDUCAUSE,

eCampus News, EDUCAUSE Review, September/October 2009, J.

Observation Even in times of down budgets, campuses need to find a way to invest in technology, from supercomputer time to Internet connection speeds (The Chronicle of Higher Education, August 10, 2009, http://chronicle.com/ article/Your-College-Gets-a-Superco/47957/).

Campus Technology, 2009, p 42, campustechnology.com/articles/2009/08/01/trendspotter.aspx?sc_lang=en).

percent of executives expect a reduction (The McKinsey Quarterly,

executives (EDUCAUSE Review,

Our Thoughts Campus IT executives are now dealing with a range of issues that have gone far beyond the purchasing of computers for faculty and running the student data system. Their ability to effectively influence planning in an institution could be the most important task ahead in the ever-expanding portfolio of expectations for technology (EDUCAUSE Review, July/August, A. Agee and C. Yang, “Top-Ten IT Issues 2009, pp 45-58).

most of the rest of campus is facing decreases (eCampus News, May 19, 2009). th in the world (Yahoo Tech News,

The New York Times,

acceptance and expectation of e-book availability (The Chronicle of Higher Education, June 12, 2009, chronicle.com/ eSchool News, September 1, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/?i=60446).

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