Consulting Report

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TreePlan-Example-179-Win-2010.xls
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Original ExpVal

Use mechanical method
80000
-120000 80000
0.5
Electronic success
150000
0.5 Try electronic method 0 150000
Awarded contract
2 -50000 90000 0.5
250000 90000 Electronic failure
30000
-120000 30000
0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal 120000
Try magnetic method 0 120000
-50000 20000
-80000 84000 0.3
Magnetic failure
0
-120000 0
1 0.5
20000 Not awarded contract
-50000
0 -50000
Do not prepare proposal
0
0 0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2 1 2 0 0 0 25 1
1 0 0 E 2 3 4 0 0 0 18 5
2 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5
3 1 D 3 5 6 7 0 0 10 9
4 1 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9
5 0 3 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13
6 0 3 E 2 8 9 0 0 0 9 13
7 0 3 E 2 10 11 0 0 0 19 13
8 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17
9 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 17
10 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17
11 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 17

Formatted ExpVal

Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
0.5 Try electronic method $0 $150,000
Awarded contract
2 -$50,000 $90,000 0.5
$250,000 $90,000 Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal $120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
-$50,000 $20,000
-$80,000 $84,000 0.3
Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
1 0.5
$20,000 Not awarded contract
-$50,000
$0 -$50,000
Do not prepare proposal
$0
$0 $0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2 1 2 0 0 0 25 1
1 0 0 E 2 3 4 0 0 0 18 5
2 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5
3 1 D 3 5 6 7 0 0 10 9
4 1 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9
5 0 3 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13
6 0 3 E 2 8 9 0 0 0 9 13
7 0 3 E 2 10 11 0 0 0 19 13
8 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17
9 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 17
10 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17
11 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 17

Alternative Model Inputs

Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 80000.0
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
0.5 Try electronic method $0 150000.0
Awarded contract
2 -$50,000 90000.0 0.5
$250,000 90000.0 Electronic failure Use mechanical method
1 $30,000
$0 30000.0 -$120,000 30000.0
0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal $120,000
Try magnetic method $0 120000.0
-$50,000 20000.0
-$80,000 84000.0 0.3
Magnetic failure Use mechanical method
1 $0
$0 0.0 -$120,000 0.0
1 0.5
20000.0 Not awarded contract
-$50,000
$0 -50000.0
Do not prepare proposal
$0
$0 0.0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2 1 2 0 0 0 25 1
1 0 0 E 2 3 4 0 0 0 18 5
2 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5
3 1 D 3 5 6 7 0 0 10 9
4 1 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9
5 0 3 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13
6 0 3 E 2 8 9 0 0 0 9 13
7 0 3 E 2 10 11 0 0 0 19 13
8 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17
9 6 D 1 12 0 0 0 0 12 17
10 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17
11 7 D 1 13 0 0 0 0 22 17
12 0 9 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 21
13 0 11 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 21

Risk Utility Unscaled

Label in cell on left is the
Use mechanical method defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000 RT $150,000
0.41335
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
0.5 Try electronic method $0 $150,000
Awarded contract 0.63212
1 -$50,000 $78,307 0.5
$250,000 $80,000 0.40669 Electronic failure
0.41335 $30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.18127
0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal $120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
-$50,000 $1,337 0.55067
0.00887 -$80,000 $73,035 0.3
0.38547 Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.00000
1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.00887 -$50,000
$0 -$50,000
-0.39561
Do not prepare proposal
$0
$0 $0
0.00000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2 1 2 0 0 0 25 1
1 0 0 E 2 3 4 0 0 0 18 5
2 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5
3 1 D 3 5 6 7 0 0 10 9
4 1 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9
5 0 3 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13
6 0 3 E 2 8 9 0 0 0 9 13
7 0 3 E 2 10 11 0 0 0 19 13
8 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17
9 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 17
10 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17
11 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 17

Risk Utility Scaled

Label in cell on left is the Value Risk Utility
Use mechanical method defined name of cell on right. -$50,000 0.00000
$80,000 -$45,000 0.04452
-$120,000 $80,000 RT $150,000 -$40,000 0.08758
0.78714 -$35,000 0.12923
0.5 Low -$50,000 U(Low) = 0.0 -$30,000 0.16951
Electronic success High $150,000 U(High) = 1.0 -$25,000 0.20847
$150,000 -$20,000 0.24616
0.5 Try electronic method $0 $150,000 A 1.3579523543 -$15,000 0.28260
Awarded contract 1.00000 B 0.9730153801 -$10,000 0.31786
1 -$50,000 $78,307 0.5 -$5,000 0.35196
$250,000 $80,000 0.78066 Electronic failure $0 0.38494
0.78714 $30,000 $5,000 0.41684
-$120,000 $30,000 $10,000 0.44769
0.56131 $15,000 0.47753
0.7 $20,000 0.50640
Magnetic success $25,000 0.53431
Prepare proposal $120,000 $30,000 0.56131
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000 $35,000 0.58743
-$50,000 $1,337 0.92075 $40,000 0.61269
0.39357 -$80,000 $73,035 0.3 $45,000 0.63712
0.76000 Magnetic failure $50,000 0.66076
$0 $55,000 0.68361
-$120,000 $0 $60,000 0.70572
0.38494 $65,000 0.72710
1 0.5 $70,000 0.74779
$1,337 Not awarded contract $75,000 0.76779
0.39357 -$50,000 $80,000 0.78714
$0 -$50,000 $85,000 0.80585
0.00000 $90,000 0.82395
$95,000 0.84146
Do not prepare proposal $100,000 0.85839
$0 $105,000 0.87477
$0 $0 $110,000 0.89061
0.38494 $115,000 0.90593
$120,000 0.92075
$125,000 0.93508
$130,000 0.94894
$135,000 0.96235
$140,000 0.97532
$145,000 0.98787
$150,000 1.00000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2 1 2 0 0 0 25 1
1 0 0 E 2 3 4 0 0 0 18 5
2 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5
3 1 D 3 5 6 7 0 0 10 9
4 1 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9
5 0 3 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13
6 0 3 E 2 8 9 0 0 0 9 13
7 0 3 E 2 10 11 0 0 0 19 13
8 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17
9 6 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 17
10 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17
11 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 17

Risk Utility Scaled
Value or Certain Equivalent, x
Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)
DriveTek Risk Utility Function