Assignment 2: Probability Analysis

How to get started with Decision Tree Analysis

As a starting point for the decision tree, draw a small square around the center of the left side of the paper. If the description is too large to fit the square, use legends by including a number in the tree and referencing the number to the description either at the bottom of the page or in another page.

Draw out lines (forks) to the right of the square box. Draw one line each for each possible solution to the issue, and describe the solution along the line. Keep the lines as far apart as possible to expand the tree later.

Illustrate the results or the outcomes of the solution at the end of each line. If the outcome is uncertain, draw a circle (chance node). If the outcome leads to another issue, draw a square (decision node). If the issue is resolved with the solution, draw a triangle (end node). Describe the outcome above the square or circle, or use legends, as appropriate.

Repeat steps 2 through 4 for each new square at the end of the solution lines, and so on until there are no more squares, and all lines have either a circle or blank ending.

The circles that represent uncertainty remain as they are. A good practice is to assign a probability value, or the chance of such an outcome happening.