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Risk Analysis

Consider the formula:

RISK = LIKELIHOOD (Threat x Vulnerability) X CONSEQUENCES (Intrinsic Value + Symbolic Value)

To use these worksheets, identify the risk. Ask yourself, what critical infrastructure are you concerned about? Under the Critical Infrastructure column identify that CI is at Risk. In the Score column assigned the corresponding assessment (add what the Risk is, to help you remember when ranking your CI). After you have ranked each worksheet plug in those numbers into the RISK FORMULA to achieve your final rankings.

Rank your threats!

If you have threats that have the same rankings, you can use symbolic or intrinsic values to help break the tie…

Threat Worksheet

Critical Infrastructure Asset

Threat Score

Threat Scoring Key

No known threats associated with the specific critical infrastructure asset. 

1 point

Generalized, non-specific information about a threat associated with an attack to the specific critical infrastructure asset. Takes into account the intent and capabilities of terrorist groups that pose the threat.

2 points

Specific information about an imminent threat associated with an attack to the specific critical infrastructure asset. Takes into account the intent and capabilities of terrorist groups that pose the threat.

3 points

Vulnerability Scoring

Critical Infrastructure Asset

Vulnerability Score

Vulnerability Scoring Key

Low Vulnerability = 1 point

Moderate Vulnerability = 2 points

High Vulnerability = 3 points

Consequence Scoring

Critical Infrastructure Asset

Symbolic Value

Intrinsic

 Value

Level of Consequence

Symbolic and Intrinsic Value Scoring Key

1 point: Low Value

2 points: Moderate Value

3 points: High Value

Consequence Scoring Key

2 points: Low Consequence

3 – 4 points: Moderate Consequence

5 – 6 points: High Consequence 

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