Correlational statistical analysis and editing thesis research

VIII.

Statistical Relationship Between Poverty and Terror

From the literature review, it is argued that poverty influences the rate of terrorism and the

other crimes experienced in different countries . The level of poverty of any country can be 1

measured in terms of the level of GDP of the country. When the GDP is low, then the poverty

level is high, making it difficult for the citizens of the nation to survive, which forces some of

them to be lured in criminal activities as the only way to get income to sustain their lives . 2

Table 1 Descriptive Statistics of Variables that Influence the Level of Terrorism

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation

GDP 51 .18 .80 .4151 .18274

Unemployment 51 10.00 38.10 22.963 7

8.08946

HDI 51 .30 .71 .5539 .14426

Valid N (listwise)

51

Need more information about the data in this table before it is presented. What is the

sample, what is the unit of analysis and over what period of time? As I look at this and your

subsequent tables (through table 3) I think that these statistics may be better presented in a

narrtive. With more data points in the longitudinal presentations (table 4 and higher) your

1 ​Raul ​Caruso and Evelina Gavrilova, “Youth Unemployment, Terrorism and Political Violence, Evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict,” ​Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy​ 18, no. 2 (2012).

2 ​Walter Enders & Gary Hoover, “The Nonlinear Relationship between Terrorism and Poverty.” American Economic Review​ 102, no 3 (2012): 267-272.

graphical presentations are appropriate. ​The minimum level of GDP in Palestine in USD billions

is 0.18, with the highest level being 0.80. The distribution of the GDP over time averages at

0.4151. The lowest rate of unemployment over the same period is 10%, while the highest level

being 38.10% leading to the mean value of 22.96%. For the HDI, the minimum level is 0.30,

while the highest value is 0.71 leading to an average value of 0.5539. The data analyzed included

51 years starting from 1969 to 2019 on the economic growth report about Palestine.

Table 2 The Correlation between Unemployment and GDP

Again, need more information to accompany this table. It appears as though there is no statistically significance in these results (p<0.742) OR perhaps you have presented them

backwards, with r = 0.742 and p< 0.047

Correlations

GDP Unemployment

GDP Pearson Correlation

1 .047

Sig. (2-tailed)

.742

N 51 51

Unemployment Pearson Correlation

.047 1

Sig. (2-tailed)

.742

N 51 51

From the Pearson correlation, the result indicates there is a positive correlation between

GDP and unemployment. Under a two-tailed correlation, ​the correlation coefficient is 0.742,

which indicates a stronger correlation between GDP and unemployment, when the rate of

unemployment reduces, the GDP increases, which helps in increasing the level of per capita

income to the citizens of the country hence reducing the rate of terrorism.

Humanitarian development index (HDI) also influences the rate of terrorism within the

country . The level of HDI indicates the economic growth of the country. When HDI is high, 3

then it means that the country is operating on a better economy, which is essential in ensuring

that its citizens can afford the basic needs hence minimizing the attempt of individuals being

involved in criminal activities as a way of gating the income to sustain their families.

Table 3 Correlations between Unemployment and HDI

Correlations

Unemployment HDI

Unemployment Pearson Correlation

1 -.388​**

Sig. (2-tailed)

.005

N 51 51

HDI Pearson Correlation

-.388​** 1

Sig. (2-tailed)

.005

N 51 51

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

3 Claude ​Berrebi et al., “On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes: Theory and Evidence form the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict” ​Journal of Conflict Resolution​ 50, no. 6 (2015): 899-925.

The correlation coefficient using the Pearson correlation between unemployment and

humanitarian developmental index (HDI) is 0.005. The correlation is minimal but positive,

indicating that as the level of HDI increases over time, the level of unemployment also increases

with 0.005.

Table 4 Palestine GDP (1969-2017)

According to the timeline of events in Palestine (​Fig. ?​), there have been strange

economic events in the past, which affected the GDP of the country . For example, between 1993 4

to 1999, the economy developed as there had been a good relationship between Israel and

Palestine, and the peace fostered economic development . However, the Second Intifada of 2000 5

caused even more violence between the two countries. This affected the country's economic

development and trade, thus reducing the country's development.

Table 5 Relationship between GDP and HDI

4 ​Caruso and Gavrilova, “Youth Unemployment” (2012).

5 ​Andrey Korotayev, “Economic Growth, Education, and Terrorism: A re-Analysis.” ​Terrorism and Political Violence​ 12, no. 6 (2019): 21.

The second graph above shows the relationship between the levels of the Humanitarian

development index and the gross domestic product . There is a margin of linear GDP. However, 6

GDP and HDI relate. This is because, with every economic development shown by the rise of

GDP, there is a rise of the HDI.

Table 6 Unemployment Trend

The trend of unemployment symbolizes the opposite of the trend in GDP. As seen earlier,

there is a high correlation between the GDP level as the increase in GDP causes a decrease in the

6 ​Berrebi et al., “On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes” (2015).

unemployment level . When there are little economic activities, there is minimum employment, 7

and this is when the youth get idle and engage with terrorist activities . Minimal GDP shows to 8

lower the humanitarian development index, which means that the people are not able to sustain

their livelihood, which causes them to engage in unruly activities, and they are easily radicalized.

Conclusion ​and Recommendation​ this a summary, not conclusion

The level of terrorism depends on the nature of the economic conditions present in the

country. When the level of GDP is lower, the unemployment rate is high, which lowers the HDI,

which reduces the per capita income of the citizens. The citizens of the country find it difficult to

survive hence engaging in terrorism activities. GDP, HDI, and unemployment are correlated;

hence the government is recommended to address these factors so that it can be able to control

the level of terrorism present in the country.

7 ​ ​Korotayev, “Economic Growth, Education, and Terrorism” (2019). 8 ​Berrebi et al., “On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes” (2015).