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The Washington Post

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These political scientists may have just discovered why U.S. politics are a disaster

By By Ana SwansonAna Swanson   October 7, 2015October 7, 2015

There's a lot of disgust in America with politicians' inability to get things done. In the race to win the Republican presidentialThere's a lot of disgust in America with politicians' inability to get things done. In the race to win the Republican presidential

nomination, that disgust has so far benefited outsider candidates. Non-career politicians Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina and Bennomination, that disgust has so far benefited outsider candidates. Non-career politicians Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina and Ben

Carson have all promised to ride in and fix Washington.Carson have all promised to ride in and fix Washington.

But new research by Nolan McCarty, a professor at Princeton University, and other political scientists suggests this disgust —But new research by Nolan McCarty, a professor at Princeton University, and other political scientists suggests this disgust —

and America's political dysfunction — won't be that easy to fix. Working with political scientist Boris Shor and economist Johnand America's political dysfunction — won't be that easy to fix. Working with political scientist Boris Shor and economist John

Voorheis, Voorheis, McCarty has released a new studyMcCarty has released a new study that shows that the growing ideological gap between the Republican and that shows that the growing ideological gap between the Republican and

Democratic parties — a common obstacle to getting anything done in Washington — is not just due to politicians' incompetenceDemocratic parties — a common obstacle to getting anything done in Washington — is not just due to politicians' incompetence

or their unwillingness to work together. It's due, at least in part, to a deeper, structural problem: the widening gap between theor their unwillingness to work together. It's due, at least in part, to a deeper, structural problem: the widening gap between the

rich and poor.rich and poor.

McCarty says he shares some of the disgust that Americans feel about polarized politics and gridlock in Washington. "But IMcCarty says he shares some of the disgust that Americans feel about polarized politics and gridlock in Washington. "But I

think it’s important for readers and voters to understand . . . that these problems are not just simply because career politiciansthink it’s important for readers and voters to understand . . . that these problems are not just simply because career politicians

are acting in bad faith or, as Donald Trump would say, they’re stupid losers. They’re really deep structural problems," he says.are acting in bad faith or, as Donald Trump would say, they’re stupid losers. They’re really deep structural problems," he says.

How the widening gap between the rich and poor hasHow the widening gap between the rich and poor has

changed politics in Americachanged politics in America

By looking at extensive data on U.S. states over the past few decades, the researchers show that the widening gap between theBy looking at extensive data on U.S. states over the past few decades, the researchers show that the widening gap between the

rich and the poor in recent decades has moved state legislatures toward the right overall, while also increasing the ideologicalrich and the poor in recent decades has moved state legislatures toward the right overall, while also increasing the ideological

distance between those on the right and those on the left.distance between those on the right and those on the left.

This map below shows the Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, for each state going back to 1997. A lower GiniThis map below shows the Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, for each state going back to 1997. A lower Gini

figure indicates that people in the state are earning more equal incomes, while a higher one (marked here in darker green)figure indicates that people in the state are earning more equal incomes, while a higher one (marked here in darker green)

shows that incomes are more unequal. (You can disregard the axes here — they just show latitude and longitude.)shows that incomes are more unequal. (You can disregard the axes here — they just show latitude and longitude.)

The paper argues that this trend has gone hand in hand with the growing political divide. The states that have the highest levelsThe paper argues that this trend has gone hand in hand with the growing political divide. The states that have the highest levels

of inequality, or the fastest growth in equality, have also tended to see the most political polarization, the paper says.of inequality, or the fastest growth in equality, have also tended to see the most political polarization, the paper says.

Using a scale of state legislator ideology that looks at annual surveys of the beliefs of candidates since the mid-1990s, theUsing a scale of state legislator ideology that looks at annual surveys of the beliefs of candidates since the mid-1990s, the

researchers map where Democrats have shifted to the left and Republicans have shifted to the right at the state level. The mapresearchers map where Democrats have shifted to the left and Republicans have shifted to the right at the state level. The map

below gives an ideological "score" in each state for each chamber — in most states, a House of Representatives and a Senate.below gives an ideological "score" in each state for each chamber — in most states, a House of Representatives and a Senate.

A more negative score and a deeper blue color on the map indicate that the state chamber is more liberal, while a positive scoreA more negative score and a deeper blue color on the map indicate that the state chamber is more liberal, while a positive score

and deeper red color show the state is more conservative. You can see that blue states have become bluer and red states redderand deeper red color show the state is more conservative. You can see that blue states have become bluer and red states redder

since 1997. A look at party composition in each state shows the same trend.since 1997. A look at party composition in each state shows the same trend.

It's not just that these two trends of inequality and polarization are happening simultaneously. The researchers use statisticalIt's not just that these two trends of inequality and polarization are happening simultaneously. The researchers use statistical

methods to eliminate other factors and show that a state's income inequality has a large, positive and methods to eliminate other factors and show that a state's income inequality has a large, positive and causalcausal effect on its effect on its

political polarization. Furthermore, these results have increased in magnitude in recent years and seem to be concentrated inpolitical polarization. Furthermore, these results have increased in magnitude in recent years and seem to be concentrated in

the states that are "reddest" by the end of the sample.the states that are "reddest" by the end of the sample.

In other words, growing inequality is a strong force pushing both parties farther from the center.In other words, growing inequality is a strong force pushing both parties farther from the center.

The paper doesn't specifically say why this happens, except that politics gets more polarized with each election. It appears thatThe paper doesn't specifically say why this happens, except that politics gets more polarized with each election. It appears that

people on either end of the economic spectrum have been developing even more different political preferences and electingpeople on either end of the economic spectrum have been developing even more different political preferences and electing

people to represent those preferences.people to represent those preferences.

Interestingly, however, the study shows that inequality is affecting the two parties in different ways.Interestingly, however, the study shows that inequality is affecting the two parties in different ways.

First, the researchers find that Democrats as a whole have shifted farther to the left than the Republicans have to the right, withFirst, the researchers find that Democrats as a whole have shifted farther to the left than the Republicans have to the right, with

very liberal Democrats becoming even more liberal. But at the level of the state legislature, they find that ideology as a wholevery liberal Democrats becoming even more liberal. But at the level of the state legislature, they find that ideology as a whole

has shifted slightly to the right. The reason is that there has been a change in the partisan balance, with Republicans winninghas shifted slightly to the right. The reason is that there has been a change in the partisan balance, with Republicans winning

more seats from moderate Democrats over time.more seats from moderate Democrats over time.

"As the Democrat party has shrunk nationally over the course of the last 15 years, the disproportionate effect has been the"As the Democrat party has shrunk nationally over the course of the last 15 years, the disproportionate effect has been the

replacement of moderate Democrats with Republicans, and that has tended to happen most often in states with high levels ofreplacement of moderate Democrats with Republicans, and that has tended to happen most often in states with high levels of

inequality, or where inequality is growing the fastest,” McCarty said.inequality, or where inequality is growing the fastest,” McCarty said.

The map below, which shows the percentage of seats held by Republicans, illustrates how that has happened. The percentage ofThe map below, which shows the percentage of seats held by Republicans, illustrates how that has happened. The percentage of

seats held by Republicans has increased, especially through the South and middle America, since 1997:seats held by Republicans has increased, especially through the South and middle America, since 1997:

What this means for America's future, and for votersWhat this means for America's future, and for voters

This study offers evidence that inequality leads to political polarization. Though they have yet to produce definitive findings, theThis study offers evidence that inequality leads to political polarization. Though they have yet to produce definitive findings, the

researchers also believe, as many others in their field do, that political polarization also in turn produces more inequality,researchers also believe, as many others in their field do, that political polarization also in turn produces more inequality,

creating a vicious feedback loop of inequality and polarized politics.creating a vicious feedback loop of inequality and polarized politics.

How does that work? Not only are more conservative lawmakers less likely to favor redistribution, the political gridlock thatHow does that work? Not only are more conservative lawmakers less likely to favor redistribution, the political gridlock that

results from having a more polarized system makes it harder to pass bills that might reduce income inequality, such asresults from having a more polarized system makes it harder to pass bills that might reduce income inequality, such as

increasing the minimum wage, strengthening union bargaining power, or increasing redistribution through welfare, researchersincreasing the minimum wage, strengthening union bargaining power, or increasing redistribution through welfare, researchers

say.say.

The research suggests that political polarization is not just a product of gerrymandering, the way districts are drawn, or causedThe research suggests that political polarization is not just a product of gerrymandering, the way districts are drawn, or caused

by features of the state political system, such as having closed partisan primaries, McCarty says.by features of the state political system, such as having closed partisan primaries, McCarty says.

Instead, he argues that America's political polarization is a reflection of bigger, broader changes in the United States, inInstead, he argues that America's political polarization is a reflection of bigger, broader changes in the United States, in

particular that the country has become much more diverse in terms of its economic, racial and ethnic makeup than it was in theparticular that the country has become much more diverse in terms of its economic, racial and ethnic makeup than it was in the

1950s. The diversity, unsurprisingly, has a direct impact on the political system, and we have yet to figure out how to repair the1950s. The diversity, unsurprisingly, has a direct impact on the political system, and we have yet to figure out how to repair the

system to reflect a more diverse society, McCarty says.system to reflect a more diverse society, McCarty says.

So what does this mean for average voters in the near term? For one, they should be skeptical of candidates who promise anSo what does this mean for average voters in the near term? For one, they should be skeptical of candidates who promise an

easy fix to political dysfunction in Washington.easy fix to political dysfunction in Washington.

"These are deep, complicated problems, and people need to think big picture about what underlies them. They weren’t solved by"These are deep, complicated problems, and people need to think big picture about what underlies them. They weren’t solved by

electing Barack Obama, they’re probably not going to be solved by electing Donald Trump," McCarty says.electing Barack Obama, they’re probably not going to be solved by electing Donald Trump," McCarty says.

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Ana Swanson covers the economy, trade and the Federal Reserve. . Follow @anaswanson