PSYC1105 DW6

TFS Question Set 3 

Chapter 10

 

1. At the beginning of the Chapter, Kahneman gives an example of how we look for causes even when they do not exist.  He calls it the “law of small numbers”, give a similar example translating it into COVID19.  The main thing I am looking for is you understanding the principle, so do not simply copy and paste substituting cancer with COVID.

2. Why does Kahneman say that sustaining doubt is harder that sliding into certainty?

3. In the city of Metropolough mothers give birth in two hospitals: “Large hospital" where about 500 births occur per day, and “tiny clinic", where about 5 births occur per day. Assume that the probability of a baby being boy is .5. Which one of the two hospitals is more likely to have 80% of births being boys in one day and why?

If you are a computer scientist, for fun, you can program a simulation of this problem.

4. What does basketball have to do with this chapter?

Chapter 11

5. What is the anchoring effect?

6. Give an example of anchoring if you wanted to sell me a car.

7. What are the two possible explanations of the anchoring effect?

8. There are a number of really interesting examples of anchoring phenomena in the chapter. Summarize them and explain it to your family as if you were talking to them in the kitchen table.

9. How is it that anchors are another example of WYSIATI?

 

Chapter 12

10. What is the availability heuristic?

11. Recall the principle from the readings last week: often, when we try to answer a difficult question, we substitute it for a simpler one, and we do not notice that substitution.  What is the substitution in play in the availability heuristic?

12. Explain to your family the example in the book about keeping the house tidy.

13. At the end of the chapter, there is a small section on power and intuition.  What is the main message?

Chapter 14.

 

14. In the chapter he uses the term “base rates”. What does that mean?

15. The test that Tom W took in the story is of “uncertain validity”.  How do people judge that part of the story?

16. Going back to the dinner table with your family, how does this chapter inform why it is so hard to fight malicious use of social media that delivers half-truths and lies?