chapter 4

Chapter 4.

THE MURDER BOOK

Patterns and Trends

Prepared by Dr. J.L. Flexon

HOW COMMON IS HOMICIDE?

• Contrary to the portrayals on the evening news, homicide is a rare event. Though, it is

difficult to appreciate that when looking at actual numbers.

• Raw Number Example: In 2004, 16,137 individuals in the United States were murdered

(reflecting a 2.4% decrease from the year before with 16,528 murders, FBI, 2006a).

Preliminary FBI reports for 2005 indicated a 4.8% increase in homicide from the year

2004 (FBI, 2006b).

• It is important to look not only at the absolute numbers of homicide each year but to

consider the rate (per 100,000) of homicide as well.

• Rate Example: The U.S. murder rate decreased from a rate of 5.7 homicide victims per

100,000 in 2003 to 5.5 per 100,000 in 2004. However, the data also show a decrease of

0.8% from 2000 to 2004 while the number of homicides increased 3.5% during this same

time period (FBI, 2006a).

• Example: See Box 4.1

HOMICIDE TRENDS

• The decrease in homicide numbers and the homicide rate that we see from 2003 to 2004

is part of a trend that has been occurring since 1991 when homicide reached a rate of 9.8

per 100,000 (24,703 victims).

• This decrease since 1991 is unprecedented in the last 50 years.

• The number of homicides in the US decreased 65.3% between 1991 and 2004, whereas

the homicide victimization rate decreased 55% during this same time period.

• See Figures 4.1 & 4.2

• See also the Dept. of Justice Blog: http://blogs.justice.gov/main/archives/1765

• Homicide Trends in the United States: http://dailykenn.com/522.pdf

CIRCUMSTANCE TYPE

• The supplemental homicide data collected by the FBI show that the circumstances were

known for 65% of homicides that occurred in 2004.

• Alcohol and illicit drug involvement is a blind spot in homicide statistics.

VICTIM/OFFENDER RELATIONSHIP

• When known (55.9% of homicides):

• 23% were killed by acquaintances (most likely offenders)

• 9% were killed by their intimate partners,

• 8% were killed by family members (not including spouses).

• 3% were killed by someone else the victim knew, (neighbor, employer, or employee).

SEX

• Homicide is largely a male activity (78% victims; 90 perpetrators based on 2004 data)

• Males are about equally likely to kill males (89%) and females (90%)

• See also Figures 4.3 & 4.4

AGE

• Homicide is most often committed by the young (see Figure 4.6)

• The peak age for (2004) homicide offending was 20 to 24 years.

• Ages 17 to 29 accounted for the majority (57.6%) of homicide offending in which the age

of the offender was known.

• Less than 5% were older than 54 or younger than 17 years (2004 data).

RACE (2004 DATA)

• Among known offenders and victims, whites out-number African Americans but only by a small margin.

• 48.6% of homicide offenders were white,47.5% were African American, and less than 4% were categorized as another or unknown race.

• Victim data based on race closely mirrors perpetrator data.

• Victim/offender dyads tend to be intraracial (as opposed to interracial)

• Cautious about conclusions is warranted (see also Martinez study discussed in text)

• Although the data show that whites outnumber African Americans, the rate of homicide is much higher for African Americans.

• The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports (2004), the rate of homicide victimization was six times higher for African American as compared to whites.

• Similarly, the rates of homicide offending for African Americans were seven times higher than the rates of offending in 2004 for whites (Fox & Zawitz, 2006).

CDC DATA: CAUSE OF DEATH (AGE IS

AGGREGATED)

CDC (CONT)

• Please see the CDC break down here:

• http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/LCWK2_2010.pdf

• The number one cause of death for young (15-35) Black males is Homicide. It is the

second leading cause of death for 1-14 year olds in this demographic category.

YEARS OF POTENTIAL LIFE LOST TO HOMICIDE

• The National Center for Injury Prevention and Control provides a measure of premature

mortality called the “years of potential life lost ,” or YPLL.

• Average life expectancy – time of actual death = YPLL

• 5% of all life lost was due to homicide (all ages, sexes, and races/ethnicities)

• Breakdown of YPLL in %:

• Black females 4.3%; Hispanic females 4.2%; White females 2.2%

• Black males 15.4%; Hispanic males 10.8%; White males 3.6%

• Disturbingly, and as intimated before, the number-one cause of years lost for black men

under the age of 65 is homicide

WEAPON USE

• See figures 4.3 & 4.4

• A plethora of weapons are used to commit homicide. The most frequent are Firearms

(Firearms are most often used in homicide (66% FBI; 68% NCIPC; most often handguns)

and sharp objects (knifes).

• It is not uncommon for perpetrators to use weapons of convenience.

COMMUNITY TYPES

• Homicides are most likely to occur in areas of high population density.

• Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA spatial units) are densely populated areas. (Used by the Census)

• With 82.9% of the population in the United States, MSAs had 88.8% of the homicides with a rate of 5.9 per 100,000 residents.

• Homicides occurring in MSA’s drive the US homicide rate

• The least densely populated areas are known as nonmetropolitan counties outside of MSAs

• 10% of U.S. residents live in nonmetropolitan counties, and 10% of all 2004 U.S. homicides occurred in these counties for a rate of 3.6 homicides per 100,000 individuals.

• Mid-range cities outside of MSA’s account for 6.8% of the U.S. population.

• 4.4% of U.S. homicides were committed in cities outside of MSA’s. The rate of homicide is at 3.5 per 100,000 residents in cities outside of MSAs and was just under the rate for counties outside MSAs (Fox & Zawitz, 2004).

REGIONAL

• Northeast is the least populous region of the United States, and it contributes least to the

U.S. murder rate

• The South is the most populous and contributes the most to the homicide totals. However,

the rates for each region indicate that the South has more than its fair share of homicide.

CROSS-NATIONAL COMPARISONS

• Although the United States does not have the highest homicide rate in the world , it is in

the top five for countries with viable data listed in Table 4.5 (please review)

• United States has a rate of 5.56 per 100,000.

• Estonia and Lithuania each have rates nearly twice that of the United States, and

Russia’s rate is nearly four times that of the United States with a rate of 22.05 per

100,000. South Africa in 2001 was astronomical, at 55.86 per 100,000 (Barclay & Tavares,

2003)

• Norway, Denmark and Japan have the lowest rates.

LINKS

• You can go to the Bureau of Justice Statistics page to see jurisdiction level homicide

rates over the years.

http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/Local/JurisbyJuris.cfm

• You can use WISQARS (Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System)

for causes of death and percentages, rates, and ranking for homicide.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/wisqars/

• Use NationsMaster.com to compare homicide rates in different countries.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita