Over time, is it likely that one nation will gravitate towards the other’s model and if so what would be the reasons for so changing?

Course Description Course Overview:

The existing architecture of the global economic and international law orders led by the United States and allied Western powers will not last indefinitely:

“History has never set any precedent that an empire is capable of governing the world forever.” https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/business/international/china-creates-an- asian-bank-as-the-us-stands-aloof.html

The world currently stands at the precipice of a transitional moment in the international law writ caused by the reasonable likelihood that new architects will be joining (and possibly eventually supplanting) the present-day architects. Transformative geo-political and economic developments led by China such as the One Belt One Road (or Belt Road I nitiative) (“OBOR” or “BRI ”), the Asian I nfrastructure I nvestment Bank (“AI I B”) and the increasing internationalization of the Yuan all herald potentially significant changes to the existing international governance framework. This will have enormous consequences on international law, global trade and international economic law.

“[T]here does not appear to be a comparable example of a great power (or multiple powers) rising within a normative framework not of its own making, where that normative framework has not undergone substantial change or revolution as a result of the new power’s values and interests.”

Simon Chesterman, Asia’s Ambivalence about I nternational Law and I nstitutions: Past, Present and Futures https://academic.oup.com/ejil/article/27/4/945/2962207

Understandably, the current Chief Architect – the United States – believes that the new architects are “revisionists” and present a strategic challenge. This is a natural reaction to the potential loss of hegemony and power and the likely shift in defining international law and controlling the governance architecture.

The intriguing question is how the clash will be resolved. While in recent decades Chinese participation in globalization was welcomed, the perspective of the United States has changed as evidenced by the trend of national security to block deals involving Chinese buyers and calls for tariffs. Understanding how this potential re-orientations in power will affect international law, trade and investment, military flash points and global stability is of critical importance.

The Class:

The course will be taught over 6 days and each day will consist of a 3.5 hour session (4 academic hours). The readings have been prepared with the understanding this is a condensed course over 6 days and will therefore not be overwhelming yet will provide you with a comprehensive background so that you will be able to follow the lectures and participate in discussions.

The main “text” of the course is the article – “The Clash of Architects: Developments and Transformations in I nternational Law” - published in the Chinese Journal of Global Governance. The article is available on the internet (see link below). Unless directed in class, you are not required to read the footnotes (you are welcome too and they are a source for you for further research) but we may discuss them in class. For your convenience, I have also cut and paste into the syllabus for Class 5 some quotes from the recent United States National Security Strategy and Defense Department documents. Other readings are brief news items and possibly current events developments which I will put up on the board and discuss. Class participation is strongly encouraged and students are responsible to know what is covered in class.

Course Goals Objectives:

We will focus on the following primary objectives: 1) understanding the rise of the new potential architects in the context of the existing governance architecture; 2) examining the historical narrative of excluding certain nations from international law making; 3) evaluating the reactions of the existing architects and 4) discussing the various potential outcomes and impacts and ramifications on the international law and governance orders arising from this clash.

Grading The Exam:

The exam will consist of a take home exam consisting of essays and will be due no later than Friday September 21 (17 days after our last class on September 4) at 4 pm. Send the work to [email protected] Late submissions will not be accepted and will not be graded. I f an emergency arises and you cannot submit the work on time you must secure written approval from the I DC Administration. I will provide the questions on the last day of class and will post it as well on the course site.

The best way to prepare for the take home exam will be reading the assigned readings, attendance and class participation. All questions in class are welcomed but if you prefer, I will happily answer your questions outside of the classroom and I will make myself available before/after class to answer any questions you may have about what we covered in class.

Reading List Class 1

The Current United States Led Western Created Global Order

Points of discussion

- post-WW2 architecture - U.S. dominated international financial institutions (I MF, World Bank, U.S. Dollar)

- what is the global governance order and what is the current framework of international law – the law of “civilized” nations?

- is it inherently unfair to claim international law violations against nations which were

Course program and reading list Semester 3 Year 2018

School: Harry Radzyner Law School LL.B.

The Clash of Architects: Transformative Developments in the Global Order

Lecturer:

Adv. Joel Slawotsky [email protected]

Course No.: 10479

Course Type : Elective

Weekly Hours : 2

Credit: 2

Course Requirements : Final Paper

Group Code : 183104791

Language: English

Prerequisites

Prerequisite: 4 - Legal English Advanced 2 OR 10061 - Legal English Advanced for - Honors Program

- is it inherently unfair to claim international law violations against nations which were considered “uncivilized” and therefore excluded from creating international law?

Readings: Joel Slawotsky, The Clash of Architects: Developments and Transformations in I nternational Law, Chinese Journal of Global Governance http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/23525207-12340025

Section 1 “The Historical Context of the Global Economic and Legal Orders

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-australia/australia-to-stress-international-law-in- south-china-sea-dispute-idUSKCN1GP0NM

Class 2

The Rise of China and Chinese Global Leadership

Points of discussion

- China’s economy has risen remarkably in recent years and is the second largest

- China has established and is leading several global initiatives which will challenge the current business and legal architecture (OBOR, AI I B, NDB)

- the Yuan’s internationalization and potential for increased usage in the oil trade

Readings: Joel Slawotsky, The Clash of Architects: Developments and Transformations in I nternational Law, Chinese Journal of Global Governance,

http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/23525207-12340025

Section 2 The Current Framework Challenged

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701505-chinas-foreign-policy-could-reshape- good-part-world-economy-our-bulldozers-our-rules

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/05/economist-explains-11

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-futures/shanghai-crude-futures-roar-into- action-as-global-merchants-dominate-trade-idUSKBN1H207T

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationaldevelopment/2017/01/30/the-impact-of-chinas-one-belt- one-road-initiative-on-developing-countries/

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/the-us-is-losing-to-china-in-the-ai-race

https://thediplomat.com/2017/11/can-china-replace-the-us-as-the-worlds-top-arms-dealer/

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-military-tech-challenging-wests- dominance-study

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-silkroad-japan/japans-ruling-party-heavyweight- signals-readiness-to-join-aiib-nikkei-idUSL4N1I H5ZP

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/the-us-dollar-may-be-at-risk-as-the-global-reserve- currency.html

Classes 3 and 4

Examples of Different Norms and Values and Understandings of I nternational Law

Ramifications on The Global Governance Architecture

Points of discussion

-different norms of various states

-defining international law

-trade, international financial institutions and global governance

-is it fair to impose Western norms on non-Western nations?

-what happens if Western nations view the Chinese governance model as superior?

Reading: Joel Slawotsky, The Clash of Architects: Developments and Transformations in I nternational Law, Chinese Journal of Global Governance,

http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/23525207-12340025

Section 3 The New Architects Knocking at the Gate

Section 4 Ramifications and Challenges of the New Architects

Section 4.1 Core I ssues Defining I nternational Law

Section 4.2 Rules Governing The Global Order

Class 5

The Reactions of the Current Western Architects:

Global Partnership Versus Strategic Rivalry

Points of discussion

- United States National Security Strategy and Department of Defense Perspectives

-National Security Review of I ncoming FDI (general)

-United States CFI US national security review

-China’s State Owned Enterprises (“SOEs”) and FDI

-Western concerns over strategic motivations and technology transfer

-Western protectionism: legitimate concern or protectionism/paranoia?

Readings:

United States National Security Strategy

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf

China and Russia want to shape a world antithetical to U.S. values and interests. China seeks to displace the United States in the I ndo-Pacific region, expand the reaches of its state-driven economic model, and reorder the region in its favor. Russia seeks to restore its great power status and establish spheres of influence near its borders. (NSS, supra., p. 25).

United States Department of Defense

http://www.airuniversity.af.mil/Portals/10/CMSA/documents/Required_Reading/Joint%20Operating%20Environment%202035%20The%20Joint%20Force%20in%20a%20Contested%20and%20Disordered%20World.pdf

The DofD document uses the word “competitor” 43 times and references “China” almost 20 times. I t singles out China as harboring ambitions threatening American hegemony closely paralleling the NSS.

For the foreseeable future, the rising economic and cultural power of some Asian countries, par cularly China, is breeding new and more expansive poli cal and geostrategic ambi ons backed by growing military power. (“ The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World,” p. 28).

China’s recent industrial and economic growth combined with its desire to once again be a regional hegemon and global power may result in new nuclear doctrine emphasizing first use and a counter force approach, versus its current counter value doctrine and capabilities. Future delivery mechanisms might include hypersonic missiles, long-range cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles with maneuverable warheads, all designed to penetrate U.S. defensive systems.. . . (“The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World” p. 25)

Looking ahead, competitive behavior between the U.S. and potential – and actual – adversaries will be overt and violent. But just as often, our interaction with competitors will include attempts to deter and deny us our strategic objectives or be marked by ambiguous, but still coercive pursuit of political goals backed by the threat or potential of applied military power.. . . (I bid., p. i (Foreword))

The cyber forces and activities of many states will also likely be used to stress or fracture the social and political cohesion of competitors. . . . (p. 35)

social and political cohesion of competitors. . . . (p. 35)

Our forces face the very real possibility of arriving in a future combat theater and finding themselves facing an arsenal of advanced, disruptive technologies that could turn our previous technological advantage on its head – where our armed forces no longer have uncontested theater access or unfettered operational freedom of maneuver. . . . (“The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World” p. 15 quoting Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, Remarks to the National Defense University Convocation (August 5, 2014))

Russia, China, and other revisionist states may also increasingly partner and coordinate with each other or with smaller, but militarily-active partners such as Pakistan or North Korea (I bid., 29)

https://www.lawfareblog.com/cfius-reform-and-us-government-concerns-over-chinese- investment-primer

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/cfiusletter.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/29/business/china-cfius-takeover-money-deals.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/06/business/qualcomm-broadcom-cfius.html

http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/cfius-in-us-china-relations/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-idUSKBN13B1WO

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/11/reports-of-chinese-influence-on- australia-hysterical-paranoia-top-newspaper-says

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2133455/why-sino-eu-ties- have-hit-rough-patch

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/31/the-aiib-is-a-threat-to-global-economic-governance- china/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/24/wto-head-rejects-talk-global-trade- war-us-more-tariffs

http://zeenews.india.com/world/west-resistance-to-chinas-obor-rising-2084949.html

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2099613/macron-wants-limits-chinese- investments-takeovers-europes

http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-trade-france-idUKKBN15T1ND?il=0

Class 6

Going Forward: The U.S.-China Rivalry – Potential Outcomes

Most Recent Developments, General Course Review and Exam Tips

Points of discussion

-potential outcomes going forward

-potential economic, political and military ramifications

-peaceful coexistence and sharing of the world stage or trade/military conflict?

-recent developments, course review, questions and exam tips.

Reading:

Joel Slawotsky, The Clash of Architects: Developments and Transformations in I nternational Law, Chinese Journal of Global Governance http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/23525207-12340025

Section 4.3 Discussion