Economics regression analysis paper

Northeastern University/Economics Department

CED 6040-71041 / Applied Econometrics

Fall 18

Dr. Bakkal Office Hours: Monday, Wednesday, Thursday 7:30 - 8:00 AM

Phone: 617 373 3641 Monday 1:30 -- 2:15 PM

E-mail: [email protected] Wednesday11:30 AM – 12:15 PM

Office: 307 Holmes Hall

Objective: This course will help you develop ability to design and execute empirical study, and critically evaluate the existing empirical literature.

Learning outcomes: You will learn to:

· design a typical empirical study

· construct empirical model

· search for data

· treat/organize data

· compare different empirical studies

· understand and use summary statistics

· generate inferential statistics

· evaluate existing empirical work

· verify/refute economic theories

· develop forecasts

· establish trends

· critique/appreciate role of assumptions

Textbook: Using Econometrics: A practical Guide. A. H. Studenmund. Pearson Publishers Latest edition (7th). Chapters 1-7 and 11. The earlier edition (6th) is usable only if you take the onus upon yourself to track chapter assignments and material covered.

Grading basis : Exams 80 points (40 points each)

Paper proposal 10 points

Paper—part I 20 points

Paper-complete 20 points

Homework 30 points (10 points each)

Discussion posting 20 points

Participation 20 points

Total 200 points

Grading scale: A 191-200 94.5%

A- 182-189 91%

B+ 173-181 86.5%

B 164-171 82%

B- 156-163 78%

C+ 146-155 73%

C 136-145 68%

C- 126-135 63%

D+ 116-125 58%

D 106-115 53%

D- 95-105 48%

F Below 95

Rubric Schedule: HW I September 21

HW II September 28

Exam I October 1

Proposal October 5

HW III October 12

Regression part I October 19

Exam II October 22

Paper complete October 25*

*Due on Thursday not on Friday as most other assignments are.

Only under extenuating circumstances will there be a make-up. The makeup will be Wednesday morning at 7 AM immediately after the in-class exam or the duration of the circumstance is over. A legitimate excuse needs to be verified. It is the student’s responsibility to provide a valid proof. You must inform me about the nature of the circumstance before the class exam.

No unexcused late assignments are accepted. All assignments—proposals, papers and homework—are due at the end of the day on the due date via Blackboard posting. If you have technical issues with depositing an assignment, send an email-copy before the due date and bring to class a hardcopy. Since, in this case, only a hard copy is graded.

All work must be done in your own words unless references are provided properly. You are encouraged to interact with your classmates as you work on assignments. Yet assignments are not collaborations. They must be your work. In accordance with the university policy, any attempts of cheating or plagiarism will automatically result in a Grade of F for the course; and the relevant officials of the university including the Student Ethics office will be notified.

If a certain arrangement is necessary to accommodate a special-need, please feel free to speak with me or call Disability Resources Center.

Exams

Exams are essay. They are unit tests. There will be review questions several days before each test and a chance for you to ask questions (a specifically designated office hour) as you prepare answers to review questions. Exams are made up of short explanations, analytical concepts--developed in the course--and applications of these concepts to solve real and hypothetical Economic problems.

Homework

There will be three sets of homework. Homework sets may feel tedious and lengthy, yet their purpose is to help you grasp the material, apply it and prepare for the test.

Regression paper

There will be three parts to the paper:

· Proposal,

· first part including literature search, model, and justification of the model, complete data, bibliography, expectations—no computational work; and

· second part consisting of complete paper--including most segments from the first part, running the regression, performing hypothesis tests and assessing the results.

Proposal

One-page proposal should include preliminary model, brief justification for the model including one paragraph cursory summary of the existing literature, expectations (signs and magnitudes of estimated coefficients) and preliminary bibliography—justification is solely based on summarized literature and existing theory. The entire proposal should be about a page and written with a narrative--not in a bullet form. You need to use three explanatory variables one of which being a control variable (altogether three independent variables and one dependent variable).

Regression paper: part I

This should include comprehensive literature search, justification of the model and expectations based on theory and literature review, and bibliography (all but the estimation and statistical analysis. This part should be about a page and a half. No computational parts is included in this part.

Regression paper complete

It should include all components of part I with modifications through re-editing, and estimated equation: the multiple regression with three independent variables and their statistical as well as economic analyses. It should also include policy suggestions. All papers contain a brief introduction and summary and conclusion. This paper should be about two to two-and-a-half pages.

With all papers and homework, data, and computational printouts must be provided; and should all be relegated to the appendix. Any work used directly or indirectly must be referenced based on a formal reference-manual style such as MLA or APA (no URLs).

Discussions:

Objectives of weekly Blackboard (Bb) discussions are twofold: to help prepare for the upcoming weekly discussions; and get comfortable with literature search and present your finding in an informal/collegial way.

Several, minimum two, postings must be provided: an original reaction to the prompt which needs to be based on research through library sources and responses to others’ postings (for the original posting, bibliographic references need to be provided).

Conventional etiquette (cordiality and respect) must be adhered. Discussion boards are not competitive arenas to earn points by ‘defeating the rival.’ They are to show your understanding and analysis of the given situation based on literature, wisdom and logic. They may be provocative to engender further thinking, not ill-feelings. They are essential conduits to promote peer-learning.

Each week’s prompt is available Tuesday noon through the following Monday noon before class. This allows 6 full days to post the original posting and reactions to the others prior to the class period. Please do not miss posting since they can not be posted retroactively. Discussion grade will be assigned at the end of the term based on the quality, quantity and timeliness of your postings.

Tentative Weekly Schedule

Week I: Sept 17-23— Introduction to the course and regression, digest review of statistics

Chapters 1 and 2

Discussion: Role of statistics and regression in social sciences

Homework set I

Week II: Sept 24-30— Ordinary Least Squares and Properties of the Classical Model

Chapters 3 and 4

Discussion: Role of error term

Homework set II

Week III: Oct 1-7 – Hypothesis testing and Model Specification: Choosing variables and functional form

Chapter 11

Discussion: Normality assumption and its role

Exam I

Proposal

Week IV: Oct 8-14— No class or coverage of material

Chapter 5, 6 and 7

Discussion: Characteristics of a good empirical research

Homework set III

Week V: Oct 15-21 — Model Specification (continued): choosing functional form and Forecasting

Chapters 7 and 15

Discussion: Your own (paper) model and provide constructive criticism of others and defend your own

Regression part I

Week VI: Oct 22-28—Place of Econometrics in Sciences revisited

Chapter 15

Discussion: Uses and abuses of regression analysis

Exam II

Paper complete

� This syllabus must be taken in conjunction with the Blackboard site dedicated to this course. The Blackboard site contains course material, reading assignments, grades and occasional announcements

� Please make note that other than occasional extra points on the test there are no extra credit assignments since they are misleading by taking precious time away from your other responsibilities; and it is unfair to those who attempt to fulfill requirements on time.

� Participation points are based on your attendance, punctuality and contributions to in-class discussions.