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A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF AGENDA

SETTING FOR THE ISSUE OF

ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

By Christine R. Ader

Introduction

This study found that the agenda-setting hypothesis was supported Jbr the issue of pollution from 1970 to 1990. Real-world conditions and the public agenda were not correlated for this issue. Additionally, despite the overall reduction in pollution, media coverage has increased. However, for waste pollution there was a positive correlation found between the media agenda and real-world conditions.

The agenda-setting hypothesis, which has attracted increasing atten- tion in mass communications literature, posits a relationship between the relative emphasis given by the media to various topics and the degree of salience these topics have for the general public. Individuals note the amount of and distribution of media coverage among issues, and this determines the salience of each issue for the individuals. According to the agenda-setting hypothesis, the media do not mirror public priorities as much as they influence them.

Most of the agenda-setting research to date follows the historical lead of excunining the relationship between the results of quantitative content analysis of issues in the media and survey of the public's issue agenda. Variations of this design exist usually in the type and number of issues and the duration of development of the issue in the public agenda. Recent studies also have examined the relationship between the public policy agenda, the media agenda, and the public agenda. One often ignored, yet important, component for such studies is the real-world condition of the agenda item. The real-world condition is the actual prominence of the specific issue in reality, the indicators of current conditions, or the measure of the importance of an issue in reality, usually based on statistics.

Many agenda-setting studies have only analyzed the media agenda and the public agenda. By doing so, a researcher may discover a significant relationship, but this relationship might be dependent on some exogenous variable.' If a researcher examines real-world conditions along with the media agenda and the public agenda, the design is strengthened because a control variable is added to the design.^

Numerous researchers have observed that unobtrusive issues - issues with which individuals have little personal contact and for which they rely on the media as the primary, and sometimes, only source of information - demonstrate a strong agenda-setting effect.-* The environment is one such

Christine R. Ader received an M.A. degree from the School of Journalism at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale. She is employed at Argonne National Laboratory.

300 JOURNALISM & MASS CoMMUMcmow

issue. In fact, in a study using factor analysis to distinguish obtrusive issues from unobtrusive issues, Eyal found that the issue of the environment loaded strongest on the unobtrusive factor.*

The concern and interest regarding environmental problems began in the 1970s and manifested itself in April 1970 when hundreds of thousands participated in Earth Day events all over the country.'' Media coverage of the environment has increased dramatically recently, and so has public concern for environmental issues.̂ In fact, the persistence and recent revival of public concern for environmental issues was termed a "second miracle" of public opinion by Dunlap and Scarce.̂

This study examined the media agenda, public agenda, and real- world conditions for the issue of environmental pollution from 1970 to 1990 to determine if a relationship exists between the media agenda and the public agenda, between the media agenda and real-world conditions, and also between the real world and the public agenda. This longitudinal study uses aggregate public opinion statistics, and the real-world conditions are opera- tionally defined.̂

The media agenda was determined by content analyzing the New York Times. Environmental stories were measured in column inches and were coded into three topic categories. Gallup survey data were used to infer the public agenda by examining the percentage of respondents who cited envi- ronmental pollution as the most important problem facing the nation today. Secondary analysis of data from the Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the United States 1960-2000 and Environmental Quality was used to deter- mine real-world conditions for pollution. This study used various indicators of major subissues of environmental pollution including disposal of wastes, air quality, and water quality.

Lippmann noted that the media shape people's perceptions of that which they cannot experience directly.̂ Those issues for which individuals have little personal contact and for which they rely on the media as the primary, and sometimes, only source of information are termed unobtrusive.

Numerous researchers have observed that the environment is an unobtrusive issue which demonstrates a strong agenda-setting effect.'" In fact, Eyal found that the issue of the environment loaded strongest on the unobtrusive factor." Frevious research has found that the environment is an unobtrusive issue because most people do not spend much time in direct contact with pollution.

Zucker demonstrated that agenda setting took place for three unob- trusive issues, including pollution, but did not occur with three obtrusive issues.'^ Agenda setting did not occur for the obtrusive issues because indi- viduals can rely on real-world conditions and interpersonal discussion for information, while for unobtrusive issues, the individuals only have infor- mation from the media to rely on.

Behr and Iyengar observed that real-world conditions should be examined because they serve two purposes: Hrst, they can help assess the sensitivity of the media agenda to current conditions and events. Second, they can help distinguish between the effects of news coverage and real- world conditions on the public agenda.'-'

McLeod, Becker, and Byrnes observed that if a valid assessment of real-world conditions were possible, the relative similarity of the audience's perceived saliencies to external reality might serve as a control against which

The Media Agenda and Real-World Conditions

A loNcmiDiNAL STUDY Of AGENDA SITHNG FOK THE ISSUE OF EWIRONMEVCU. PouxmoN 301

to evaluate the similarity of the public agenda to the media agenda." By only analyzing the media and public agendas, a researcher may discover a significant relationship, but this relationship might be dependent on some exogenous variable.'^

In this study, real-world conditions along with the public agenda and the media agenda were examined to determine if the media agenda corre- sponds to real-world conditions and to distinguish between the effects of news coverage and real-world conditions on the public agenda.

Environmental problems became a leading item on the national agenda at the beginning of the 1970s. Media coverage of the environment has increased dramatically recently and so has public concern for environmental issues.'*

tiypotneses Based on the findings that unobtrusive issues have agenda-setting effects and that the issue of the environment loaded strongest on the unob- trusive issue it is hypothesized that: The media agenda and the public agen- da for the issue of pollution will be related, with a change in the media agenda leading to a change in the public agenda.'^

Based on the findings which found no or very low correspondence between the real-world conditions and media coverage for the issue of pollution, it is hypothesized that: The relationship between the media agenda and real-world conditions for the issue of pollution will be unrelated.'^

Based on the findings that agenda setting does not occur with the unobtrusive issue of the environment because individuals only have infor- mation from the media to rely on, it is hypothesized that: The relationship between the public agenda and real-world conditions for the issue of pol- lution will be unrelated.^'

Method

302

The methods of study included content analysis of the New York Times and secondary analysis of data including Gallup poll surveys, Environ- mental Qualiti/, a n d the CharacterizMtion of Municipal Solid Waste in the United States. The content analysis assessed the media agenda, while the analysis of secondary sources provided the public agenda and real-world conditions respectively, for the issue of pollution.

Sample. In view of the support for print media's agenda-setting effect over television, the elite newspaper the New York Times was examined for this study. Massing found that this newspaper is one of the two most elite newspapers which influence television news.^

The time period studied was 1970 to 1990, both years inclusive, because 1970 marks the year when the environmental movement gained widespread interest and appeal. The Times was examined three months before and after each Gallup poll because agenda setting implies a relation- ship between the media agenda and the public agenda. This three-month time period was chosen because previous research has found that the parameters for the agenda-setting effect extended from two to six months prior to the public agenda measure.^'

The New York Times Index was used for 1970 to 1990; however, the Times was not published from 10 August 1978 to 5 November 1978, inclusive, because of a strike. Four categories in the Index were used: air pollution, environment, water pollution, and waste materials and disposal. For each year, a random number was chosen between one and nine, and this number

jounNAUSM & MASS COMMUNPCXTIOW QiMtrreRLr

determined the starfing point of coding for each category. For each category for each year, every tenth story was coded begin-

ning with the story that was randomly chosen. In other words, a 10 percent sample of the four categories was coded. A random sample was done because of the sheer volume of stories. If the story was not about air, water, or waste pollufion, then the next consecufive story was coded. All environmental stories were idenfified in this sample. Only news secfions and editorials were analyzed.

For purposes of this study, environmental content was defined as dealing with humanity's influence, whether posifive or negafive, on the environment. This included news items relating to humanity's unintentional disrupfion of the ecological system such as disposal of wastes, air quality, and water quality.

The coding unit was the paragraph, measured in column inches. That is, once an environmental story was located, each paragraph was coded into three topic categories including: (1) disposal of wastes, (2) air quality, and (3) water quality. Atwater, Salwen, and Anderson noted that these categories were the most salient environmental issues in the mass media.^

Also, each story was coded for prominence. Prominence was opera- fionally defined by scoring various measures of attenfion. This study used Ramaprasad's technique modified to exclude headline depth.^ The score was defined for placement: above fold =1,below fold=0; for placement: front, sectional, sports, or sectional page = 1, other = 0; for length: 3/4 or more of Times' column length = 1, less than above = 0; headline width: across four to six columns - 2, two to three columns = 1, one column = 0; photographs or drawings: extending across four to six columns = 2, two to three columns = 1, and one column = 1. All the above scores were added for a total promi- nence score.

Reliability. Reliability checks were conducted after the original data collection was completed to determine the level of consistency in measure- ment. A 10% subsample was recoded to determine inter- and intra-coder reliabilifies. Intra-coder reliabilities ranged from 97.6% to 99.7% while inter- coder reliabilities ranged from 92.8% to 100%.

Public Agenda. Gallup poll survey data were used to determine the public agenda. This survey asks an open-ended quesfion: "What do you think is the most important problem facing the nafion today?" Since Gallup polls do not ask respondents about subissues of the environment, only the general issue of environmental pollufion was analyzed.

Every Gallup poll was examined from 1970 to 1990 to determine if environmental pollufion had been menfioned. This yielded a total of 66 MIP polls.

Real-World Conditions. Few efforts have been made to develop total environmental indices because of the complexity of the problem. One re- searcher has suggested that more than 100 factors can be ranked and grouped into fourteen categories, for which indices of environmental quality could be constructed.^^

Current conditions for air and water pollufion were operafionaliy defined by data from Environmental Quality, 1970 to 1991, inclusive, and Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the United States was used to define disposal of wastes. These categories were chosen because they are the most visible of the environmental problems. In addifion to the above categories, an index for overall environmental quality, measured in millions of metric tons, was calculated for each year by summing the individual subindices above.

A loNcrruDiNAi SVJm or AGU^DA SmiNC TOR THE ISSUE or ENVIRONMEWAL POLHITION 303

Results

Tests for Hypotheses. For investigating hypothesis 1, two Pearson r correlations were calculated: a correlation of the media agenda three months before the poll with the poll percentage and a correlation of the media agenda three months after the poll with the poll percentage. This allowed for precomparisons and postcomparisons. The media agenda wasoperationalized by an average length and prominence score. These are both ratio scale measurements, which allow for the most precise type of measurement.

To investigate hypothesis 2, the real-world condition pollution indi- ces for each year were correlated with the mean number of column inches devoted per year to environmental pollution. The total pollution index and the three pollution subissues of water, air, and waste pollution each were correlated separately.

For investigating hypothesis 3, the percentage of Gallup poll re- sponses per year which named environmental problems/pollution as the most important problem in America was correlated with the air pollution index, water pollution indicator, waste pollution indicator, and the total pollution index,

Distribution of Total Environmental Articles by Year. A total of 1,954 environmental stories were coded for this study, a 10 percent sample of the total number of environmental stories listed in the Times Index under the categories of air pollution, environment, waste and disposal, and water pollution. Figure 1 illustrates the number of coded stories for the years 1970 to 1990, inclusive.

Distribution of Articles by Average Length and Prominence Score. Figure 2 illustrates average length of the environmental stories versus the years 1970 to 1990, inclusive. There is no discernible trend from 1970 to 1977 because of fluctuations and the average length increases steadily from 1978 until 1990.

FIGURE 1 Frequency vs. Year

40 1970 1974 1978 1982

Year 1 9 8 6 1 9 9 0

304 SS COMMUNICATION QuAmutir

FIGURE 2 Average Length vs. Year

18 —

I 14 <

- V - i

"3)

1970 1974 1978 1982 Year

1986 1990

Figure 3 illustrates average prominence score of the articles versus the years 1970 to 1990, inclusive. The year 1989 had the greatest average promi- nence score with 3.134, and 1978 had the lowest with 1.689.

Hence, in general while the frequency of stories was decreasing over the years, the average length and average prominence scores were increas- ing.

FIGURE 3 Average Prominence Score vs. Year

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

1.8

1970 1974 1978 1982 Year

1986 1990

A LoNcmiDiNAL SniDY Of AGENDA SFTTINC FOR THE ISSUE of EmiRONMENiAL 305

FIGURE 4 Air PoUulion vs. Year

o Q.

Distribution of Articles by Environmental Category. By environmen- tal category, 573 air pollufion articles, 766 water pollution arficles, and 615 waste and disposal articles appeared. Waste pollufion had the highest average length and prominence scores, water pollufion had the second highest, and air pollution had the lowest.

Pollution Real-World Conditions by Year. Figure 4 illustrates air poliufion, measured in million metric tons, versus year. The amount of sulfur

FIGURE 5 Oil Spills vs. Year

306 &MASS COMMUNICAITON

FIGURE 6 Net Solid Waste vs. Year

CO c o o

o E

lio n

IIL U

B CO IQ

;g "o W

o z

3 0

2 5

2 0

0 5

0 0

oxides, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and total suspended parficulates for each year was summed to operafionalize the air pollufion index. The graph shows that since 1970 the amount of air pollufion has steadily de- creased.

Figure 5 illustrates the amount of oil, measured in million metric tons, spilled each year. The figure illustrates that there have been many fluctua- fions throughout the years because oil spills are caused by accidents.

FIGURE 7 Total Pollution vs. Year

X V •o

270

260

250

I 240

230 —

220 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990

Year

A bDfJOTUDiNAL STUDY OF ACEUOA SETTINC fOR THE ISSUE OF £NV/KDMH£NTU POLLUTION 307

Figure 6 illustrates the net amount of solid waste, measured in million metric tons, which was disposed of each year. Since 1970 there has been an overall increase in the amount of disposed net solid waste.

Figure 7 shows the total pollution index versus year. The total pollu- tion index was calculated by summing air pollution, oil spills, and net solid waste for each year. This ijidex is in millions of metric tons. Overall, the amount of pollution has steadily declined, although there were a few years, such as 1976,1977, and 1978, when the amount increased.

Hypothesis 1. This study tested the agenda-setting hypothesis by correlating the media agenda three months before each poll with the public poll percentage and the media agenda three months after each poll with the poll percentage. Since Gallup poll data does not ask respondents about subissues of the environment, only the general issue of environmental pollution was analyzed. The media agenda was operationalized by average length and prominence score. The agenda-setting hypothesis was supported because the correlation of the prepoll media agenda with the poll percentage was statistically significant and stronger than the correlation of the postpoU media agenda with the poll percentage.

Additionally, when the media agenda/public agenda correlations are run as first-order partials, with reality partialled out, the correlations for the average length prepoU is 0.934, average length postpoll is 0.836, average prominence score prepoll is 0.922, and average prominence score postpoll is 0.578. All these correlations are statistically significant at the 0.01 alpha level and in each case, the correlations were strengthened when the effects of reality were controlled.

Hypothesis 2. Hypothesis 2 postulated that there would be no correspondence between real-world conditions and the media agenda for the issue of pollution. Pearson r correlations were run for each subissue between the media agenda, operationalized by the subissue's average article length or average prominence score, and the subissue's real world indicators for each year. Additionally, a correlation was run between the overall pollution index and the average length and average prominence score of all environmental stories for each year.

Overall, all the real-world indicators had a statistically significant correlation with the media agenda, operationalized by either average length or average prominence score. All of the correlations were statistically signif i-

TABLE 1 Correlations between the Media Agenda (Three Months before and

Three Months after the Respective Gallup Poll) with the Poll Percentage Naming Environmental Pollution as the MIP

Time Period Average Length Average Length Average Prom. Average Prom. Prepoll Postpoll Prepoll Postpoll

70-90 0.224' 0.165 0.240' 0.0456

* correlation significant at 0.1 level

308 IOillWAUSM&MASSCOMMUH)CAnONQuAKTE]>LY

Pralution Category

Total Pollution Index Air Water

Waste

Length Correlation

-o.8ir •0.702*

-0.569*

0.675*

TABLE 2 Correlations for Each Subissue between Real-World Indicators of Pollution with Media

Agendas, Operationalized by Length and Prominence

Prominence Correlation

-0.796* -0.650* -0.532** 0.815*

correlation significant at 0.1 alpha level correlation significant at 0.02 alpha level

cant and all were negative except for the correlations for the waste and disposal pollution. The total pollution index, air pollution, water pollution, and frequency of pollution stories have all declined on the average through the twenfy-one years while the average prominence score and average length of environmental articles have increased. Therefore, the correlations are negative. This indicates that despite a reduction in pollution, media cov- erage has increased. The fact that waste pollution has only positive correla- tions is due to the fact that waste pollution has steadily increased, and overall, so has the average length and average prominence scores.

Hypothesis 3. Hypothesis 3 postulated that there would be no relationship between real-world conditions and the public agenda for the issue of pollution. The Pearson r correlations between the Gallup poll respondents naming environmental problems as the most important prob- lems in America with real-world indicators of pollution were found to be statistically not significant for all three subissuas of pollution and the total pollution index.

From 1970 to 1990, the agenda-setting hypothesis was supported for Conclusion the issue of environmental pollution. Hence, ihe findings suggest that the amount of media attention devoted to pollution influenced the degree of public salience for the issue. This is consistent with previous findings by researchers that the environment is an unobtrusive issue, an issue that does not have tangible consequences for individuals. Therefore, the public has little personal contact with pollution and so relies on the media for informa- tion. This was reinforced by this study's finding that real-world conditions and the public agenda for pollution were not correlated.

The media agenda and real-world conditions for pollution did have a statistically significant relationship. However, the correlations for the total pollution index, air pollution, and water pollution were negative. In other words, despite the overall reduction in pollution, media coverage on pollu- tion has increased. Probably this increase is partially due to greater amounts of government legislature aimed at reducing the amount of pollution. In addition, the number of special interest groups supporting environmental protection has increased.

However,a positivecorrelation was found between the media agenda and real-world conditions for the waste and disposal category. This result is

A LoNciTUDiNAL STUDY OF ACLNLM SEUINC FOR THE ISSUE OF EWIIIONMENIAL POLLUTION ^Q

not unexpected sincethenewsmedia's renewed attention in theenvironment has been paralleled by an increase in the public's interest in recycling its waste. This is due to the fact that landfills are becoming scarce and recycling is becoming a crucial and controversial issue. Waste pollution is directly affecting the public.

Overall, by including real-world conditions, the sensitivity of the media agenda and public agenda to current conditions was assessed. When the effects of reality were controlled, the correlation between the media agenda and the public agenda was strengthened. As predicted, this study found that real-world conditions do not influence the media or public agendas directly. The public needs the media to tell them how important an issue the environment is. Individuals do not learn this from real-world cues. Also, the media are not effective at determining the importance of this issue from real-world cues.

NOTES

1. Luis Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur H. Miller, "Front-Page News and Real-World Cues: New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American journal of Political Scinice 24 (February 1980): 19.

2. Jack M. McLeod, Lee B. Becker, and James E. Bymes, "Another Look at the Agenda Setting Function of the Press," CommufiJCfl(io«Rfseflrc/il {April 1974), 14.

3. Chaim H. Eyal, James P. Winter, and William F. DeGeorge, "The Concept of Time Frame in Agenda Setting," in Mass Communication Yearbook Vol. 2, ed. G. Cleveland Wilhoit {Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 1981), 212-218; Harold G. Zucker, "The Variable Nature of News Media Influence," in Communication Yearbook No. 2. ed. B.D. Rubin (NJ: Transaction, 1978), 225-245; Roy L. Behr and Shanto lyengar, "Television News, Real- World Cues, and Changes in the Public Agenda," Public Opinion Quarterly 49 (spring 1985): 38-57.

4. Eyal, Winter, and DeGeorge, "The Concept of Time Frame in Agenda SetHng," 225-245.

5. Robert C. Mitchell, Public Opinion on Environmental Issues: Results of a National Public Opinion Survey {Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, 1980), 1.

6. Jim Detjen, "The Traditionalist's Tools {And a Fistful of New Ones)," Gannett Center Journal: Covering the Environment 4 {summer 1990): 73-83.

7. Riley E. Dunlap and Rik Scarce, "The Polls-Poll Trends: Environmen- tal Problems and Protection," Public Opinion Quarterly 55 (winter 1991): 652.

8. G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study in the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly 37 {spring 1973a): 62-75.

9. Walter Lippmann, Public Opinion {NY: The Free Press, 1922), 11-13,29. 10. Eyal, Winter, and DeGeorge, "The Concept of Time Frame in Agenda

Setting," 212-218; Zucker, "The Variable Nature of New Media Influence," 225-245; and Behr and lyengar, "Television News, Real-World Cues, and Changes in the Public Agenda," 40.

11. Eyal, Winter, and DeGeorge, "The Concept of Time Frame in Agenda Setting," 212-218.

12. Zucker, "The Variable Nature of New Media Influence," 225-245, 13. Behr and lyengar, "Television News, Real-World Cues, and Changes

310 jounNAUSM & MASS COMMUNIOVTON QuAKTVtLy

in the Public Opinion," 40. 14. McLeod, Becker, and Byrnes, "Another Look at the Agenda Setting

Function of the Press," 141. 15. Erbring, Goldenberg, and Miller, "Front-Page News and Real-World

Cues: New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," 19. 16. Detjen, "The Traditionalist's Tools (And a Fistful of New Ones)," 73-

83. 17. Zucker, "The Variable Nature of New Media Influence," 225-245;

Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study in the Dynam- ics of Public Opinion," 62-75; and William A. Babcock, "Environmental Pollution Coverage in Newsweek from 1969 through 1975" (Ph.D diss.. South- em Illinois University at Carbondale, 1979), 3-5.

18. Zucker, "The Variable Nature of New Media Influence," 225-245; Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study in the D3mam- ics of Public Opinion," 62-75; Howard Eaton Jr., "Agenda-Setting with Bi- Weekly Data on Content of Three National Media," jourtialism Quarterli/ 66 (summer 1989): 942-948,959; and Babcock, "Environmental Pollution Cover- age in Newsweek from 1969 through 1975," 3-5.

19. Eyal, Winter, and DeGeorge, "The Concept of Time Frame in Agenda Setting," 212-218; and Zucker, "The Variable Nature of New Media Influ- ence," 225-245.

20. Michael Massing, "The Network Newscasts: Still HotOff the Presses," Channels of Communications 3 (January/February 1984): 47-52.

21. Gerald C. Stone and Maxwell E. McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda Setting," Journatism Quarterly 58 (spring 1981): 51-55; Pamela J. Shoemaker, Wayne Wanta, and Dawn Leggett, "Drug Coverage and Public Opinion," in Communication Campaigns about Drugs: Government, Media, and the Public, 1972-1986, ed. Pamela J. Shoemaker (Hillsdale, N]: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., 1989), 79; and James P. Winter and Chaim H. Eyal, "Agenda Setting for the Civil Rights Issue," Public Opinion Quarterly (fall 1981): 376-383.

22. Tony Atwater, Michael B. Salwen, and Ronald B. Anderson, "Media Agenda-Setting with Environmental Issues," journalism Quarterly 62 (sum- mer 1985): 393-397; and Michael B. Salwen, "Effect of Accumulation of Coverage on Issue Salience in Agenda Setting," fourmlism Quarterly 65 (spring 1988): 100-106.

23. Jyotika Ramaprasad, "Foreign Policy and Press Coverage: A Study of the New York Times - Coverage of India from 1973-1980" (Ph.D. diss.. Southern Illinois University at Carbondale, 1984), 74-75.

24. Robert Pikul, "Development of Environmental Indices," in Statistical and Mathematical Aspects of Pollution Problems, ed. John W. Pratt (NY: Marcel Dekker, Inc., 1974), 103.

L STUUT Of AGENDA SEJTTNC FOK THE ISSUE or ENVIRONMFIITAL POLHITTON

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