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StudentIntroEconsExemplar2-USLobsterMarketAnalysis.pdf
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US Lobster Market Analysis
Introductory Economics, Past Student Article Analysis – Exemplar from S1 2018 Lecture Topics: L2 ‘Demand and Supply’; L3 ‘PEd and Revenue’; L4 ‘Economic Efficiency ‐ Consumer & Producer Surplus’, L5 ‘Externalities’
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Article Summary
Written by Janelle Nanos on the 22nd April 2018 for the Boston Globe, “A $49 lobster roll? A recent shortage has lobster prices soaring” provides an insight into the dramatic movements in the American lobster market. Lobster is a popular seafood among the US population that is widely consumed during summer. As lobsters are only harvested seasonally, its supply is scarce. Thus, a minor shift in the market can cause massive disruption to the community. This is reflected in the recent significant reduction in lobster supplies throughout America resulting from a combination of unfavourable weather, international demand and disruption in supply chain. Consequently, the price skyrocketed from $8/pound last year to $15/pound. The article also explores the economic impacts of the event on producers and consumers (Janelle 2018).
1.2 Essay overview
Through the application of microeconomic theories, this paper provides an analysis on how the shifts in supply and demand following the event cause a consequential shift in market equilibrium. The impact on demand of related goods will be discussed. Besides, the relationship between elasticity and total revenue will be examined. The changes in consumer and producer surpluses brought about by the drastic price change will also be examined. Lastly, the paper will discuss how the intervention of government, in easing the negative externalities arise from lobster fishing, has worsen the shortage.
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2.0 Article analysis
2.1 Demand and supply
Demand refers to customers’ willingness to pay: the rate at which consumers desires to consume a product (Whelan and Kamil 1996). It is influenced by various factors such as price, income, prices of related goods, tastes, population and demographics, and expected future prices (Hubbard et al. 2015). Demand can be illustrated graphically via a demand curve, representing the quantity demanded (the amount consumers are willing to buy at a certain price) at various prices, assuming that all non‐price determinants are held constant. The fundamental economic concept underlying is the law of demand: at ceteris paribus, when all non‐price determinants are held constant, quantity demanded will decrease if the price increases, and vice versa (Brewer et al. 2002). This inverse relationship is reflected in the downward sloping nature of the willingness‐to‐pay curve (Hayes 2018). As mentioned in the article, the shift in demand is brought about by the non‐price determinant of tastes, which plays a vital role in influencing consumers’ plans to consume a good. It can be influenced by climatic and seasonal conditions. It was indicated in the article that lobster is widely used by restaurants during summer. Due to the unseasonably warm spring leading into summer, the demand for lobsters has increased, shifting the demand curve to the right.
Diagram 1.0 Increase of demand of lobsters.
Supply refers to the willingness and ability to supply goods (Whelan and Kamil 1996). The variables influencing supply are price, input prices, technology, expectations and number of sellers (Hubbard et al. 2015). As mentioned in the article, the ability to supply lobster is largely disabled due to numerous factors like bad weather, global competition, and disruption in supply chain. This increases the input prices to source lobster supply. Consequently, supply decreased and this is reflected by a shift of the supply curve from right to left.
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Diagram 2.0 Decreased supply of lobsters
Shortage refers to when quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied in the market (Hubbard et al. 2015). The sharp decreased in supply, along with an increase in demand during summer, lobster can be expected to be in shortage in the US market.
2.2 Market Equilibrium
Market equilibrium is achieved when quantity demanded is equal to quantity supplied (Bryant 1997). However, when demand and supply curves shift simultaneously, the initial equilibrium price will cease to equate demand with supply (Hubbard et al. 2015). Thus, the price will adjust in achieving a new equilibrium.
Diagram 3.0 Equilibrium shift in lobster market.
As illustrated in the graph, the price of lobster would inevitably increase. This is further reinforced as per mentioned in the text that the price has skyrocketed to $15/pound, almost double of the usual price of $8/pound. However, although there is certainty on the price raise, it is indeterminate on whether or not the equilibrium quantity would remain unchanged,
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increase or decrease as it depends on the magnitude of the shifts in the supply and demand curves.
2.3 Effect of substitute goods
From an economic perspective, people make rational choices by weighing out the benefits and costs of a decision (Hammond 1997). Hence, people have less incentives to engage in activities in which marginal cost is greater than marginal benefit. This theory is reflected when many restaurants switched the pricey lobsters out of the menus. The lack of incentive is due to the increased in marginal cost resulting from the fluctuation of input costs of lobster dishes, making it less profitable. Consequently, people turn to substitute goods. Substitute good refers to a good that is comparable and can be used instead of another (Hubbard et al. 2015). As mentioned previously, prices of related goods is a determinant of demand. The interrelation of market means that the decreased in supply resulting in the higher price for lobster will cause a corresponding rise in demand of substitute goods, in this case, other seafood. Consequently, the prices of substitute goods would increase.
Diagram 4.0 Increased demand in supply of substitute goods.
The demand curve of other seafood would shift to the right as it can be expected that their demand would increase.
2.4 Price elasticity and total revenue
In order to gauge the effects of shifts in demand and supply on equilibrium prices, quantities and total revenue, the price elasticity of demand needs to first be determined. Price elasticity of demand (PEd) is an economical measurement of the responsiveness of the quantity demanded to a change in price at ceteris paribus (Hubbard et al. 2015). PEd can be more precisely measured using the midpoint formula:
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The answer reflects the proportion of change in quantity demanded given a change in price. Due to the inverse relationship between quantity demanded and price, the answers derived will always be negative (Taylor 2010). In comparing elasticity, the answer should always be read as an absolute value. A demand is considered elastic if the PEd is greater than one, indicating high responsiveness to changes in price. On the contrary, a demand is inelastic if the PEd is less than one, price changed has minimal effect on quantity demanded. A PEd of one reflects unitary elasticity; a change in price causes an equal change in quantity demanded (Hubbard et al. 2015). Although specific price shifts is provided in the article, statistics for change in quantity demanded were not explicitly stated and thus, the exact elasticity of lobsters is indeterminate. However, by considering the determinants of PEd, the elasticity can be estimated. The main determinants of PEd are the availability of substitutes, length of time involved, proportion of consumer’s incomes spent, nature of commodity, and definition of market (Hubbard et al. 2015). Lobster has a range of close substitutes like crab, shellfish and clay fish, thus, when price rises, consumers can easily reduce consumption of it and switch in favour of substitutes. Furthermore, lobster can be considered a luxurious ingredients as compared to other seafood due to its generally low supply in the market and hence, the consumption can be easily dispensed when their price rises. Therefore, customers are willing to drop the consumption of lobsters when price increases. The high responsiveness to price makes lobster an elastic commodity. From the elasticity, an estimation can be made on whether the total revenue will generally increase or decrease from the lobster price rise. Total revenue is defined as the total flow of income into the seller of a good and it is calculated by multiplying the price of the commodity by the quantity sold (Hubbard et al. 2015). As illustrated in the graphs below, when demand is elastic, percentage change in quantity demanded is higher than percentage change of price. Thus, when price rises, quantity demanded falls by a bigger proportion. As a result, the total revenue will fall.
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Diagram 5.0 Elastic demand showing a decreased in total revenue with price rise
2.5 Consumer and producer surplus
Consumer surplus is the monetary difference between consumers’ willing‐to‐pay price and what they actually pay, whereas producer surplus is the gap between what the producer receives and the marginal costs of production. Consumer surplus is shown as the area underneath the demand curve and above the price, whereas producer surplus is the area above the supply curve and below the price. The consumer and producer surplus have changed in response to the shifts in demand and supply in the lobster market. As illustrated in the Diagram 6.0, the consumer surplus of lobster has decreased from area A, B and C to A and D. Hence, in this scenario, consumers’ net benefits from consumption has decreased. On the other hand, in Diagram 7.0, it is evident that producer surplus has also decreased from A, B and C to B, D and E, indicating a reduction in producers’ gains.
Diagram 6.0: Decreased consumer surplus.
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Diagram 7.0 Decreased producer surplus.
The graph is only a rough estimation of surplus shifts as the magnitudes of demand and supply shifts are unknown.
2.6 Externalities
Externality is the consequences that arise from an economic activity, in either production or consumption, and experienced by unrelated third parties (Nagler 2013). In the supporting article, it was mentioned that lobster fishing disrupts the habitat of the endangered species‐ whales (Miles 2018). Thus, supplying lobster causes negative externalities as it imposes negative costs on the natural habitat. Goods that causes negative externalities are usually overproduced (Hubbard et al. 2015). However, it is not the case in the recent lobster market due to the fall in supply. In order to resolve the issue of negative externalities in lobster fishing, the Federal government only grants 25% of fishing permits for lobster fisheries. The government intervention has reduced the number of suppliers, further reducing the supply of lobster. In addition to the other factors mentioned above like poor weather and global competition, lobster supply falls short and price hikes.
3.0 Conclusions
The weather has caused great disruption in the supply of lobster to the US market at times of rising demand during summer. Consequently, the market equilibrium shifts and the price increases to restore a new equilibrium. However, the main concern is the time it would take for the market to return to its initial equilibrium. As lobster is an elastic product with a range of readily available substitute goods, the US population is likely to dispense the consumption of it due to the sky price. This will eventually decrease the demand of lobsters. However, due to multiple factors contributing to the shortage in supply, the restoration of supply back to normal can be expected to be time consuming.
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Although lobster fishing causes negative implications to the environment, in situation of serious shortage like this, government should be more lenient in granting permit for lobster fishing in order to boost the market supply that has hit rock bottom. However, government is very unlikely to intervene as lobster is not a normal inelastic good that affects the entire US population equally. Therefore, I boldly predict that it will take at least a few months for market to restore back to its initial equilibrium and until then, the price of lobster would keep on surging.
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4.0 References
Brewer, Paul, Maria Huang, Brad Nelson, and Charles Plott (2002) "On the Behavioural Foundations of the Law of Supply and Demand: Human Convergence and Robot Randomness", Experimental Economics, Vol. 5 (3), pp. 179‐208.
Bryant, Willian D.A. (1997) "Conditions for the Existence of Market Equlibrium", The Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 28 (3), pp. 230‐254. doi: 10.1080/00220489709596747.
Hammond, Peter J. (1997) "Rationality in Economics", Rivista Internazionale di Science Sociali, Vol. 105 (3), pp. 247‐288.
Hayes, Adam (2018) "Economics Basics: Suply and Demand", accessed 28th April 2018. https://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp
Hubbard, Glenn, Anne Garnett, Phil Lewis, and Anthony O’Brien (2015) Introductory Economics (Custom Edition), 1st edn, Sydney, NSW: Pearson Australia.
Janelle, Nanos (2018) "A $49 lobster roll? A recent shortage has lobster prices soaring", Boston Globe, April 22. https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2018/04/22/lobster‐roll‐recent‐shortage‐ has‐lobster‐prices‐soaring/PIQ70KjQTTTiO9ch5LndoO/story.html
Miles, Kathryn (2018) "Can anyone save the North Atlantic right whale?", Boston Globe, April 11. https://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2018/04/11/can‐anyone‐save‐north‐atlantic‐right‐ whale/iS76fBOUn9PdnL9LySgmhN/story.html
Nagler, Matthew G. (2013) "The Strategic Significance of Negative Externalities", Managerial and Decision Economics, Vol. 35 (4), pp. 247‐257.
Taylor, B. (2010) "Price elasticity" accessed 20th April 2018. http://economics.fundamentalfinance.com/micro_price‐elasticity.php
Whelan, Joseph, and Msefer Kamil (1996) "Economics", MIT System Dynamics in Education Project.
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5.0 Scanned Copy of Main News Article
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