Stock Track Final Presentation-Comments
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ST-F-MallonBenjamin.pptxStockTrak Presentation Weeks 4-6
Ben Mallon
Recent Activities
US Stocks/EFTs/
Crypto
Purchased Positions
Ebay
Etsy
Shopify
Walt Disney
Mattel
Over the past 3 weeks, I tried to diversify my portfolio into different industries. With the holiday season coming up, I wanted to get into the e-commerce industry more.
Ebay
100 EBAY: $42.96 / $43.64
I purchased 100 shares of Ebay on 12/6. I made an effort to purchase a larger amount, as I realized I was being too conservative with my money over the first half of the class. I wanted to expand into the e-commerce market as the holiday season approached. I figured that more consumers using the site would help its stock value over the short-term. Ultimately, the price is not likely to change much over the short 1 week of the stock being owned. Though there has been a minimal rise, it's not significant enough to note. Because the stock was on a slight downturn before I purchased, I am hoping that it bounces back over the month of December.
Etsy
50 ETSY: $134.81 / $126.78
The next stock I purchased was 100 shares of Etsy also on 12/6. Once again, this is another e-commerce site that I thought might see gains during the holiday season. It has only been a week, but Etsy is down almost $10 per share. This is unexpected, as Etsy is typically a popular site during seasons where people are purchasing gifts for others. It is likely that the producer price index being higher than expected for November could have caused the drop, as investors are still worried about a recession.
Shopify
150 SHOP: $39.25 / $38.38
Continuing in the e-commerce industry, I purchased 150 shares of shopify on 12/6. I noticed that Shopify was experiencing a dip, so I went with 150 shares to capitalize on the rise that could come. While the price per share is down very slightly in the week since I purchased the shares, it’s not very notable. I don’t believe there were any major market factors that influenced the change, though the underlying fear of a recession can be plugged in as a reason for any decline in price.
Walt Disney Company
100 DIS: $94.02 / $93.38
Straying away from ecommerce, I purchased 100 shares of Disney on 12/6. With the main motivation being the holiday season, I figured Disney has so much merchandise that could be popular around this time of year. Along with this, their parks host very popular holiday events that could help boost the company. I did purchase just before the low point on their past month, which will help the profit over time. As of the close on 12/9, there had been a slight rebound. I’m holding out hope that this rebound will continue at the start of the 12/12 week.
Mattel
50 MAT: $16.91 / $17.14
The final US stock I invested in was 50 shares of Mattel on 12/6. Mattel is a major toy maker, which hopefully will cause a solid rebound as the holiday season continues. I bought my shares at almost the lowest point over the past 2 week, as seen on the graph above, and have already seen a very minimal gain. The sudden drop is likely do once again to the producer price index remaining higher than expected even with the fed trying to curb inflation. If consumers are still active this holiday season, I would not be surprised if this stock rebounded to the $20 range.
Canadian Stocks/EFTs/
Crypto
Purchased Positions
Bank of Montreal (BMO)
10: C$126.58 / C$126.16
Enbridge Inc. (ENB)
20: C$53.31 / C$53.39
Along with the US stocks I purchased, I also dabbled into the international markets for the Stocktrak assignments. The first canadian stock I invested in was 10 shares of Bank of Montreal on 12/8. I used expert references for many of the international stocks, as I am not as familiar with the markets in other countries. I also wanted to make sure I was in diverse industries. None of my US stocks are in the financial industry, so having international financial stocks will still allow me to watch that industry. Because there hasnt been much time between the purchase and the close on Friday, 12/9, the change in price is not notable.
The second canadian stock I invested in is 20 shares Enbridge Inc. on 12/8. Enbridge is a natural gas pipeline and energy focused company from Calgary, Canada. This was another case of me trying to diversify the industries that I an invested in, with this being the first energy company I bought in to. There has been almost no change since purchasing, and due to it being an energy stock, I do not expect any significant changes on the horizon.
Mexican Stocks/EFTs/
Crypto
Purchased Positions
Grupo Bimbo (BIMBOA)
10: MXN85.39 / MXN 85.99
Grupo Financiero Banotre (GFNORTEO)
10: MXN146.47 / MXN143.32
The next international market I invested in was Mexico. The first Mexican stock I chose was Grupo Bimbo. Grupo Bimbo is a multinational food producer based in Mexico. Grupo Bimbo produces breads, snack crackers, and various types of rolls. The 10 shares I purchased on 12/8 have lost very little value per share since the purchase date, and I do not expect a major change soon. I chose this stock based off of an expert recommendation, as well as an opportunity to enter an industry that I was not previously in.
The second stock I invested in was 10 shares of Grupo Financiero Banorte. Grupo Financiero Banorte is one of the four largest commercial banks in Mexico. This stock was the recommendation of an expert in the Mexican market. There has actually been a notable loss since the purchase of 10 shares on 12/8. There are no obvious factors that could contribute to this fall, causing me to wait and see how the price reacts at the open of the 12/12 week.
European Stocks/EFTs/
Crypto
Purchased Positions
AstraZeneca (AZN)
10: £113.00/ £113.54
Roche Holding AG (0QOK)
50: CHF3.02 / CHF3.02
The second to last international market I invested in was the European market. The first stock I chose was the UK based AstraZeneca. Astrazeneca is a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company that played a major role in the Covid-19 vaccine. With the winter season coming around and new boosters available to everyone, I thought their stock could benefit. The price has barely changed since the purchase of 10 shares on 12/8, but I have confidence it could reach the £116 range by the end of December and into January.
The second European stock I chose was another medical related company, Roche Holding AG. Roche Holding is a Sweden based healthcare company that has two divisions, pharmaceutical and diagnostics. The 50 shares were purchased on 12/8, and have not changed at all per share since then. This was a recommendation from an expert, as I had little prior knowledge of the company. I do have confidence that a healthcare centered company will hold its value, but am not high on the idea of any major gains in the short-term.
Asian Stocks/EFTs/
Crypto
Purchased Positions
Hyundai Steel Co. (004020)
10: ₩14,000/ ₩14,000
LG Display Co. (034220)
10: ₩32,350 / ₩32,350
The final market I invested in was the Asian market. I chose two companies that I was familiar with, as it seemed like the best option in an unfamiliar market. The first investment was 10 shares of Hyundai Steel Co. on 12/8. As Hyundai is a producer of steel for automobiles that are sold around the world, I thought it would be a safe investment. There has been no change in price per share since the purchase, but I don't necessarily expect a significant change in the short term. The on-going Covid-19 situation in China could play a role in the price of this stock.
The second Asian stock I chose was LG Display Co. LG is a very familiar brand, giving me more confidence in the stock. With the holiday season arriving around the world, a technology manufacturer is never a bad play. The 10 shares I purchased on 12/8 have not seen a price change yet, but I could see a more significant change in this stock compared to Hyundai Steel. However, the same potential market influence applies, with the Covid-19 mitigation efforts in China.
Previous Portfolio Overview
Next up is the overview of the stocks I was holding at the time of the last presentation.
Existing Stock Portfolio
| Company | Symbol | Amount Owned | Midterm Price | Current Price |
| AT&T | T | 50 | $19.04 | $19.09 |
| AMD | AMD | 100 | $72.35 | $68.59 |
| Nike | NKE | 50 | $106.09 | $109.42 |
| Thor Inc. | THO | 12 | $90.52 | $81.94 |
| Polaris | PII | 20 | $116.62 | $105.07 |
| GOOG | 50 | $96.77 | $93.07 | |
| Amazon | AMZN | 30 | $100.79 | $89.09 |
| Walmart | WMT | 20 | $142.58 | $145.31 |
| Pfizer | PFE | 24 | $47.58 | $51.72 |
| IBM | IBM | 50 | $143.17 | $147.05 |
| Nvidia | NVDA | 25 | $163.27 | $170.01 |
| Winnebago | WGO | 20 | $63.65 | $55.41 |
| Rivian | RVIN | 50 | $34.90 | $27.29 |
| Ethereum | ETH | 0.3821 | $1,258.59 | $1,244.13 |
This table contains all of my previous stocks that I was still invested in at the time of the last presentation. The first price listed is the price at the time of my last presentation, with the second price being the most recent as of 12/9/22. All stocks in the red have decreased, while those in the green have seen gains over the past 3 weeks. The most notable gains were Nvidia, IBM, and Walmart. Nvidia likely saw major gains due to the release of their new 40 series graphic cards. Walmart’s increase could be attributed to the release of their positive 3rd quarter earnings report. Their gain was higher, but the recent producer price index statistic for November has caused investors to fear a recession once again. IBM’s change follows the change of the technology sector closely. While IBM has not had any significant news, the stock typically follows the S&P 500 trends. A considerable amount of my portfolio was in the red over the past 3 weeks. Polaris, Winnebago, and Thor were the three stocks with the most significant drops. With all three being in the same industry, the earnings reports from all three must have played a role. The RV market as a whole has been on a downtrend over the past 2 years, as the rise of demand over the height of the pandemic has dropped severely. The Fed raising interest rates has also played a role. When consumers make large purchases, like RVs and off-road vehicles, they typically finance the purchase. With higher interest rates, consumers have been deterred from buying for the time being. Most experts are forecasting a sales drop across the main RV manufacturers for 2023, reversing the gains over the past 2 years. This could greatly affect the stock price over the short-term for all three companies. Most other decreases were caused by the economic statistics for November that gave investors more fear of an impending recession.
Broad Market Conditions
Producer Price Index
Consumer Price Index
Fed Interest Rates
3rd Quarter / 4th Quarter Earnings Reports
China Covid-19 Mitigations
The first condition that greatly affected my portfolio recently was the reporting of the producer and consumer price index statistics for November. The producer price index (PPI) was higher than initially expected for the month of November. The consumer price index had initially caused hope that inflation was cooling quicker than expected, but the producer price index curbed those hopes slightly. The PPI showed that prices are still rising, though not as significantly as the worst inflation months. Investors were quick to respond to this, however, as many industries dropped considerably over the week of 12/5 when the news was reported.
Along with this, the underlying news of the Fed continuing to increase interest rates has been in the mind of all investors. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, did state that interest rate hikes would continue, but could be smaller increases than previous months. The final Federal Reserve meeting will take place on the afternoon of 12/14. This has caused the market to be jumpy until the rate hike is announced, as investors need to see that the rate hike will be lower before acting on the change.
Another factor that has affected the market is the 3rd and 4th quarter earnings reports for most major industries. For some industries, their fiscal year 3rd quarter was ending, while others 4th quarter was ending. Earnings reports always paint the clearest picture of the financial health of a company, so they have a major effect on stock prices per share. When major industry players release their earnings reports, the ripple can be felt through smaller companies as well as the major player gives a good insight to the health of the industry as a whole. For example, Walmart released their 3rd quarter earnings report on Nov. 15th. The results were positive for the company, as sales were higher than expected. Walmart was not the only company that saw gains due to this, however. Because Walmart is so huge in the retail industry, investors took Walmarts report as a report on the industry as a whole. Companies like Target and Amazon also saw gains that week. When consumer spending is seeing an uptrend on earnings reports, investors tend to flock to those markets.
The final market condition that had an impact on my portfolio over the past few weeks was the news of Covid-19 lockdown measures in China. Because so many US based companies have manufacturing in China, this news has a heavy effect on stock prices. The effects of this news did not last all that long when Chinese authorities made it clear that certain manufacturing plants would remain active during the lockdown measures. This will still be a situation that investors will need to keep their eye on as time goes on, as the potential for a more severe effect is always possible.
Potential Changes from Module Content
Examine Valuation Ratios closely to decide which stocks to sell
Review recent financial policies
The first area I would look to when making portfolio changes would be valuation ratios. Using ratios like the price to equity ratio and price to earnings gives a lot of information about the true value of a company. These ratios are fairly easy to find, with the common ratios for many major companies being available on financial sites. While I typically look at the surface news for companies, digging deeper into the real value of the company with more knowledge of what the ratios reveal can help find undervalued companies that are likely to gain value.
The second change I would make it to examine the recent financial policy additions or edits that companies I have invested in, or am considering investing in, have made. The late modules of the course have highlighted the importance of financial policies for companies. Looking at companies that are invested in reducing their long-term debt are typically better investments. Companies that have financial policies that benefit their employees quite a bit makes a company look better in the public eye, potentially making it a better investment. All in all, doing deeper research into these companies now that I have a better understanding of what to look for should guide the changes I make in the future.
References:
Bloomberg. (n.d.). Bloomberg - Are you a robot?. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/what-to-expect-in-the-last-cpi-report-of-2022-and-the-year-ahead?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Semenova, A. (2022, December 11). Inflation data, fed meeting will set the table for 2023: What to know this week. Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-meeting-rate-hike-cpi-inflation-what-to-know-this-week-172438967.html
