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The Federal Budget and the National Debt

GWARTNEY – STROUP – SOBEL – MACPHERSON

To Accompany: “Economics: Private and Public Choice, 15th ed.”

James Gwartney, Richard Stroup, Russell Sobel, & David Macpherson

Slides authored and animated by: James Gwartney & Charles Skipton

Full Length Text —

Macro Only Text —

Part: 6

Part: 5

Special Topic: 7

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Deficits, Surpluses, and the National Debt

15th

edition

Gwartney-Stroup

Sobel-Macpherson

First page

Deficits, Surpluses, and the National Debt

National debt: the sum of the indebtedness of the federal government in the form of interest-earning bonds. It reflects loans to the U.S. Treasury.

A budget deficit increases the size of the national debt by the amount of the deficit. Conversely, a budget surplus allows the federal government to pay off bondholders and so reduce the size of the national debt.

The national debt represents the cumulative effect of all the prior budget deficits and surpluses.

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Sobel-Macpherson

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Budget Deficits and the National Debt

Between WWII and 1973, federal budget deficits were small as a share of GDP.

During this period, the national debt declined as a share of GDP.

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- 10

- 8

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Surplus

120

100

Privately held federal debt

as a % of GDP

National debt

as a % of GDP

Other federal debt

% of GDP

Gross and Net Federal Debt

as a share of GDP (%)

Federal Budget Deficit or Surplus

as a share of GDP (%)

% of GDP

Deficit

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2014

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2014

Deficit

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Budget Deficits and the National Debt

During 1974-’95, budget deficits were quite large, causing the national debt to increase as a share of GDP.

After falling during 1996-2001, the national debt increased from 2002 to 2007 and soared both during and following the 2008-09 recession.

The current federal debt to GDP ratio is now the largest since WWII.

- 12

- 10

- 8

- 6

- 4

- 2

Surplus

120

100

Privately held federal debt

as a % of GDP

National debt

as a % of GDP

Other federal debt

% of GDP

Gross and Net Federal Debt

as a share of GDP (%)

Federal Budget Deficit or Surplus

as a share of GDP (%)

% of GDP

Deficit

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2014

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2014

Deficit

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Who Owns the National Debt?

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Who Owns the National Debt? (December 31, 2012)

Federal Reserve Banks 10.9%

National Debt $ 16.46 trillion

Privately Held Federal Debt $ 9.91 trillion

U.S. Govt. Agencies

28.9%

Private Investors

60.2%

Foreign Investors

61.3%

Domestic Investors

38.7%

Of the $16.46 trillion debt, almost 40% is held by govt. agencies (primarily social security trust fund) and the Federal Reserve banks. The other 60.2% is held privately (domestic & abroad).

Of the $9.91 trillion of privately held federal debt, 61.3% is owned by foreigners and 38.7% is held by domestic investors.

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U.S. Government Agencies Private Investors Federal Reserve Banks 28.9 60.2 10.9 45.6 54.4

How Does Debt Financing Influence Future Generations?

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How Does Debt Financing Influence Future Generations?

How does debt financing influence future generations?

When considering this issue keep 3 key points in mind:

For domestically held debt (38.7% of total privately held debt), the future generations that pay the tax liability accompanying the debt will also receive the interest income.

Debt financing of a government activity cannot push the opportunity cost of the resources used by the government into the future.

Debt financing will influence future generations primarily through capital formation.

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How Does Debt Financing Influence Capital Formation?

How does debt financing influence capital formation?

There are two alternative views :

The new classical view: People will increase their savings in anticipation of the higher future taxes implied by additional debt, leaving interest rates, consumption, and capital formation unaffected.

The traditional view: Government budget deficits reduce future capital stock by increasing current consumption, pushing up real interest rates, and retarding private investment.

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Borrowing from Foreigners

Borrowing from foreigners accounts for approximately 60% of the federal debt.

If the foreign borrowing is used to finance productive projects, future generations will inherit more productive assets that will make it possible for them to service the debt.

Alternatively, if the borrowing from foreigners is used to finance current consumption or unproductive investment projects, the earnings from the additional capital formation will be insufficient to cover the interest payments. In this case, future generations of Americans are harmed by the debt financing.

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Budget Deficits of 2001-2012

As the U.S. experienced large budget deficits from 2001 to 2012, consumption increased as a share of GDP, private investment was weak, and trade deficits were large.

This pattern indicates that the current generation was the primary beneficiary of the deficits.

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Government Debt: A Cross-Country Comparison

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Government Debt of Industrial Countries

A large national debt relative to the size of an economy leads to a large tax burden just to pay interest on the debt.

Measured as a share of GDP, the U.S. net public debt falls in the upper-middle among the high-income industrial countries.

Net Public Debt As a Share of GDP (2013)

Net Interest on Govt. Debt

as % of GDP (2013)

Greece

159.0%

5.4%

Canada

36.8%

0.3%

Australia

0.4%

U.K.

78.0%

2.8%

U.S.

90.1%

1.7%

France

68.8%

2.4%

Spain

64.7%

2.9%

Germany

49.7%

1.8%

Japan

144.3%

1.2%

Italy

100.6%

5.0%

7.5%

Portugal

88.2%

4.8%

Belgium

82.9%

3.2%

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Social Security, Budget Deficits, and the National Debt

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Social Security revenues and expenditures are generally included in budget deficit calculations.

As the Baby-boom generation retires, the system will run larger and larger deficits. This will make it more difficult to balance the Federal budget in the future.

Social Security, Budget Deficits, and the National Debt

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Political Economy of Debt Financing

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Politicians like to spend in order to provide visible benefits to their constituents but they do not like to tax because this imposes a visible costs on voters.

Debt financing makes it possible for politicians to spend now while pushing the visible cost of the higher taxes into the future.

Political Attractiveness of Budget Deficits

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Unfunded benefits (like Social Security and Medicare) also make it possible for politicians to take credit for the promised benefit now without having to levy the equivalent amount of visible taxes.

Thus, the political popularity of debt financing and unfunded benefits reflects the short-sightedness effect – the myopic nature of the political process.

Unfunded Promises are a Form of Debt

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Politics, Demographics, Federal Debt, and the Dangers Ahead

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During 2009-2011, 40% of federal expenditures were financed by borrowing.

The large deficits have pushed the federal debt as a share of the economy to levels not seen since WWII.

The retirement of the baby boomers will push spending on Social Security and Medicare upward making it more difficult to control the growth of the federal debt.

Politics, Demographics, Federal Debt, and the Dangers Ahead

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What will happen if the federal government does not control the growth of its debt?

Lending to countries with a large debt-to-GDP ratio is risky. As this ratio increases, governments will have to pay higher interest rates. This will make it still more difficult to control the budget deficit.

This happened in Ireland in 1986, Belgium in 1994, and Greece 2011.

Politics, Demographics, Federal Debt, and the Dangers Ahead

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A country such as the U.S. with a central bank, is highly unlikely to directly default on its debt.

Instead, it is far more likely to use money creation to meet its debt obligations.

In turn this will lead to inflation.

Politics, Demographics, Federal Debt, and the Dangers Ahead

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Questions for Thought:

Does the national debt have to be paid off at some time in the future? What will happen if it is not?

What is the difference between the national debt and the privately held federal debt? Is the difference between the two important? Why or why not?

"The national debt is a mortgage against the future of our children and grandchildren. We are forcing them to pay for our current consumption of goods and services." -- Is this statement true?

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Questions for Thought:

4. How is the Social Security system currently influencing the size of the budget deficit? How will this change during the next two decades?

5. If the federal debt continues to grow as a share of the economy, is the government likely to default on its obligations to bond holders?

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End of

Special Topic 7

First page