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Social Science Methodology
(History, Political Science, Sociology, Economics and other Social Sciences)

US History 16

Segment 1

Social Science Methodology
Some Important Definitions

Methodology-

The science of method. How you will approach and design your research. Set of techniques, concepts, and approaches whose objective is to increase the clarity and accuracy of understanding phenomenon. One example is the “scientific method”. Another is the “historical method”

Facts -

Assumptions -

Theory -

Proof or Prove -

Hypothesis -

Area of Study -

Scope of Study -

• History • Micropolitics • Macropolitics • Political Economics • International Relations • Economics

• Politics and Gov’t • Culture • Influence of Religion • Economic Factors

An indisputable, or generally accepted truth . FACTS ARE “ ______ ________”

Accept as being true, without proof

A supposition made as a starting point. A proposition made as a basis for reasoning. EXAMPLE?

A developed system of ideas, explaining something

To establish the validity of a hypothesis, through some testing process

History-

The study of past events, usually through written records/accounts (and more recently by electronic means)

Conjecture -

Formation of an opinion based on incomplete information, but argued as if a fact. Also known as “argument by assertion”.

History Methodology
Facts, Assumptions, and Designing Testing Methods

Facts -

Assumptions -

An indisputable, or generally accepted truth

Accept as being true, without proof

Scientific (Social Science) Method:

1) Make Observations

2) Form Hypothesis

4) Refine Hypothesis (if needed)

3) Test Hypothesis against known facts

5) Develop Theory

6) Continually Test Theory Against Facts, Refine as Needed

1) Facts about Object?

2) Assumptions about Object?

3) Designing a method

Assertion -

Statement made as fact/truth with no supporting evidence

History Methodology

Which of these tend to be “Facts”

Types of Questions which Interest Social Scientists (Including Historians?

Who, What, Where, When, Why, How, So What?

Who, What, Where, When, How

1) Where did the murders take place?

What: Murder of 500,000 Rwandans (Mostly Tutsi’s at the hands of Hutu’s)

Why?

Now this is harder. It’s more than facts, but the interpretation of facts, and on that not everyone agrees (economics, levels of poverty, education levels, tribalism, power struggle, evil leadership, cultural factors, type of government, role of military)

Examples of Questions (The Easy)

2) Who committed the murders?

3) How did the murders take place?

How: Mostly with machetes

Who: Government/Military Leaders, henchmen

Where: Rwanda and Burundi – East Central Africa

When: 1994

4) Who was arrested? Who was tried? Were they charged with murder or with crimes against humanity? Who was convicted? What were the sentences given?

History Methodology
Why are some Questions hard to answer?

The Hard

1) Franklin Roosevelt passes Social Security in the 1930s

2) Why did the Japanese bomb Pearl Harbor?

3) What caused the U.S. Civil War?

1) Sources don’t reveal (or lie about) the real reasons for actions

2) Sources sometimes speak in couched, nuanced, and diplomatic language

a) National Security Concerns

b) Could prove politically embarrassing or costly

3) History is a complex mix of culture, economics, influence, personality,

political systems, morality, beliefs, interest groups, etc.

4) People don’t always agree on definitions: Democracy, Socialism, Republic,

Capitalism, Freedom, Morality, Decency, Pornography, Imperialism, Safety,

Dangerous, Risky

5) Subjects are a moving target: change with culture, times, society, trends

c) Would rather have political cover, if possible

Social Science Research – Limitations and Problems (Overview of Criticisms)

SUMMARY: Many have branded social science as a “phony science” or a “soft science”. They point out what I think are some legitimate criticisms of the trade. We will review these criticisms one-by-one in the following slides. You will find that the limitations typically come down to human factors and poor procedures. When these issues are remediated, we’re still short of a “hard science”, but what we have is something useful and valuable.

Problem #1 – Researcher Bias

IT ORIGINATES WHEN THE RESEARCHER:

Has a political agenda, a world view, pre-conceived notions, certain normative values, or narrow experiences
Has a personal, professional, or monetary stake in a particular outcome….(i.e. a conflict of interest)
Has an ego, or desperately wants results to fit hypothesis
Is simply not willing to accept certain results

RESULTS AFFECTED WHEN THE RESEARCHER:

“Cherry Picks” data (either consciously or otherwise)
Filters data through their own “view” of the world
Designs an experiment (like a poll) to get desired results
Uses hyperbole or shows over the top results to make point

JUST SOME EXAMPLES OF HOW THIS CAN OCCUR:

A Marxist and a Libertarian both look at the same economic data
A Global Warming advocate researches C02 and Ice Sheet Data
A Labor Union studies the impact of stimulus spending on GDP
Business wants to show shareholders the value of a proposed merger
Victim’s Rights group and a Police Dept. researches crime statistics

Problem #2 – Diverse Or Bad Data Set

SUMMARY: When the researcher uses too small or too narrow a set of data for the results. This can happen either:

Innocuously because of sloppy procedures or a poorly designed experiment.

Maliciously by means of researcher bias through cherry picking data.

EITHER WAY, THE RESULTS ARE SKEWED

AND THE STUDY FLAWED

JUST SOME EXAMPLES OF HOW THIS CAN OCCUR:

A public opinion poll on taxes but 85% of the respondents are Republicans
A global warming study claiming decades of data, but only using 1968, 76, 89, and 91
A study on education that only looks at inner-city school results, or private school results
A poll on Social Security that only asks responders over 65 years of age
Economics study that focuses on manufacturing, but only in 2003

Don’t Cherry Pick Your Data.

At Best It’s Sloppy. At worst, it’s Intellectually Dishonest.

Problem #3 – Logical Fallacies

SUMMARY: A fallacy is incorrect reasoning leading to a misconception. It can happen by accident, or by deliberate design. There are many types of logical fallacies. These are traps into which even good researchers sometimes fall. They are also the tools of the intellectually dishonest and manipulative

SOME OF THE MORE COMMON LOGICAL FALLACIES

FALLACY	ARGUMENT	PROBLEM
Sweeping Generalization	Cutting people is a crime. Surgeons cut people Surgeons are criminals	The exception does not break nor define the rule. a dicto simpliciter ad dictum secundum quid (where an accountable exception is ignored).
Appeal to Authority	Climatologist ‘Bob’ says global warming is real, so it is	Authority alone is not a fallacy, but claiming they are “all knowing” or are immune to criticism or other interpretation is.
Affirming the Consequent or Denying the antecedent	If it rains, the ground gets wet. The ground is wet, so it rained	There are other ways the ground could have gotten wet. Sprinklers anyone? Perhaps a garden hose?
Begging the Question	Cindy always tells me the truth. I know since she told me.	Cindy may be lying. The statement in and of itself isn’t proof
Fallacy of the loaded question	Have you stopped beating your wife?	Either a yes or no answer is an admission to doing this at some point
Argument by Innuendo	Larry was never actually caught stealing the money	The statement implies that Larry is guilty without offering proof
Fallacy of Composition	All the players on the team are the best in the league, therefore, the team must be in first place	While all team members may be the best at their position, they do not play well together as a team, so they are in last place
Proof by Verbosity	Overwhelm the listener with a volume of material that sounds plausible and scientific	Superficially appears well researched, and is laborious to untangle, so it is left unchallenged.
Argument by Assertion	War is not the answer	Uh….What is the question? War is NEVER the answer? Ever?
Figure of speech	The cowboy was at home on the range	“At Home” does not mean he lived there, only that he felt comfortable
Ad Hominem Tu Quoque	I can’t defeat the argument, so personally attack the source.	Politicians are called “dumb”, “extreme”, “racist”, and other names….but the core of their arguments are not addressed
Strawman	PERSON A – Sunny Days are Great PERSON B – If all days were sunny, there would be no rain, and without rain, we’d have famine and death. Therefore, you’re wrong	Misrepresent an opponent’s argument to defeat it easier. Person B has falsely framed A’s argument, and has attacked the misrepresented assertion rather than what Person A actually said
Cause ≠ Correlation	-After 2 year old John was vaccinated, he developed autism -Rooster crowing before dawn caused the sun to come up	No evidence here that vaccine was the cause. Autism may be noticeable at the age children receive vaccines, and there is no causality.

Problem #4 – Relativism and Normative Definitions

The Moral Continuum

In Your Opinion, Which woman is “properly” dressed?

ULTRA CONSERVATIVE

ULTRA LIBERAL

Burqa

The Problem is the relativism of some normative questions

WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION OF THESE TERMS? Well, It’s Relative.

- Decency - Morality - (Im)Proper

- Freedom - Pornography - Oppression

- Democracy - Right/Wrong - Capitalism

- Social Good - Offensive

Niqab

Hijab

Covered Arms

Covered Legs

Short Skirt

Bikini

One piece

This is a 1920s era cartoon

What would the Victorian era woman think now?

Answers will span time. An 1820 vs 1920 vs. a 2020 answer
Answers span cultures: China vs South Africa vs Spain?
Answers depend on personal preferences and outlooks, world views
Questions often lack a degree of precision around definitions
Problems of scope and degree: Where do you draw the line?
Freedom “to” vs. Freedom “from”….the irreconcilable difference

THESE ARE QUESTIONS/ANSWERS IN WHICH WE HAVE CONFIDENCE:

- The Japanese attacked the United States on December 7th, 1941 because ________

1) Speed of Light in a Vacuum – 186,282 miles per second

2) Atomic Composition of Water – 2 Hydrogen Atoms + 1 Oxygen Atom

3) Photosynthesis

4) Energy = Mass x the Speed of Light squared (E=MC2)

• Economic Factors

• Domestic Politics (elections, interest groups, pork)

• International Politics

Problem #5 – Level of Certainty and Granularity

5) 1 +1 = 2

- Congress passed a piece of legislation because ________

- The President negotiated a free trade agreement with South Korea because _________

BUT ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS ARE NOT “SCIENTIFCALLY PRECISE”:

• Social Factors – Religion, Culture, Philosophy, World Outlook

• Role of Power

• Role of Ego and Ambition

The Granularity Problem: What is the “right” level of detail to answer questions and do research?

Mountain

Hill

Boulder

Rock

Stone

Pebble

Sand

-Too Much Detail

-Too complex to be grasped

-Argument drowns in data

-Too High Level

-Oversimplified

-Lacks crucial evidence

NO MATTER WHERE YOUR ARGUMENT IS ON THIS CONTINUUM, SOME QUALITY/EFFECTIVENESS WILL BE SACRIFICED

Problem #6 – Can you trust your sources?

• Public or Private

• Opinion or Fact

• Do they have a bias, an agenda, or something to gain?

• What is their personality?

• Are they being descriptive or persuasive?

When was it written:

At time of event, or going from memory

Why was it written:

• Running for office or otherwise will benefit?

What is more credible: The words of a politician who knows this will be published and is crafting an image vs the private thoughts and musings of a diary

The Charleston (South Carolina) Mercury announcing Secession. A fair account? Doubtful.

The Federalist Papers arguing for ratification of the Constitution. Important, but the authors have a Point of View

List of Cotton Prices – 1822. Simple, unfiltered records are arguably a more trustworthy source of data

Document Type:

Diary, political speech, letter, public record, interview

Who is Author:

Politician, General, Sergeant, Bureaucrat, Average Person

What was the Author’s motivation?

• Was the author paid? Did they know it would be published?

• Correcting a tarnished reputation? Managing an image?

• Was Author simply doing job? – Government Record Keeper

Problem #7 – Statistics are misleading and can be deviously used

Mark Twain

There are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

42.7% of people agree with Mark Twain on this statement

Technically True Statistic	Why Misleading or not so simple	What’s the agenda?
Between 2005 and 2007, Cancer death rates next to the nuclear power plant rose 300%	The results sound dramatic, but are statistically insignificant. The rate went from 1/100K to 3/100K	Anti-nuclear activists using data in an intellectually dishonest way to scare
Company earnings rose 2000% from last year	Sounds like the company had a great year. But last year profits were $1. Now they’re $20. Nothing.	Company owner trying to dress up or spin bad earnings
Oil Company profits were $35B in 2011	Oil company margin % is lower than many industries, including tech, banking, commodities, manufacturing	“Evil” Oil + Insurance Co’s frequent targets for demagogue politicians
2008 was the hottest year on record	Other recent years cooler.	Global Warming backers cherry pick data
Patients who used our drug had a 60% reduction in the incidence of heart attack	The drug also destroys the liver. Over 10 years, 80% of patients suffer liver failure	Trying to get FDA approval of drug
America has the highest cost of health insurance in the world, and not any better results	There are complicated reasons for that. Just 3: 1) America has a high obesity, sugar consumption, and diabetes rate. Low exercise 2) We are a litigious society, and doctors perform defensive medicine (running costly tests) 3) Medical breakthroughs /innovation happen here	Oversimplifying the health care debate by making it sound like the insurance companies are just out for profits

Misapplying Facts:

Conclusions don’t necessarily

follow facts

FACT: Cotton is the largest U.S. agricultural export

FACT: Cotton is most profitable crop

FACT: Cotton is the single largest crop

CONCLUSION: Greater than 50% of available crop acreage in 1860 was planted with Cotton

FACT: Cotton had more acreage than any other crop

Problem #8 – Misapplying Facts

Problem #9 – How you ask the question

Issue	Question Sample 1	Sample 2 – Which will yield different results
Smoking	Do people have the right to smoke?	Given cancer/death rates, should people have the right to smoke?
Global Warming	Is Global Warming a priority?	With economic issues and world famine, is global warming a priority?
Gun Control	Should people own guns?	The 2nd amendment guarantees the right to own arms. Repeal it?
Health Care	Should the government provide health care?	Government = You. Prepared to pay higher taxes to provide healthcare?
Social Security	Do you support cuts to Social Security?	To keep Social Security solvent, will you pay 20% more each check?

Problem #10 – My Pet Peeve – Conspiracy Theories

Why Conspiracy Theories Don’t Stand Up

Think Critically – Use your common sense, and you’ll know they are filled with fallacies and don’t hold up to scrutiny
Somebody would have talked– For conspiracies to work, they require absolute silence and obedience from participants. People talk, so this isn’t credible. It would eventually come out.
Government Incompetence – Governments can’t run a post office or a DMV….but they can execute and maintain an elaborate conspiracy? No.
Cherry Picked Facts – Conspiracy theorists do three things with facts:
Use some facts and ignore others
Use facts out of their proper context
Weave the few facts they have loosely into a fairy tale that sounds credible and plausible but doesn’t hold up to scrutiny

Why Conspiracy Theories Thrive?

Nobody Checks the Facts – The conspiracy theorist sounds so plausible…it must be true….right? Wrong. Think critically.
Belief in the “Oz behind the Curtain”– People have a belief that things can’t just happen, someone must be pulling levers.
Agendas – Like the creator of the conspiracy theory, the believers often share a dark political agenda involving that theory

The Top Conspiracy Theories

Kennedy Assassination: The CIA killed John F. Kennedy. They put a 2nd gunman on the grassy knoll

9/11 “Truthers”: 9/11 was an inside job (again by the CIA). They planted explosives in the buildings to ensure they fell down

Obama “Birthers”: Barack Obama was not born in the United States, it’s a giant cover up

Moon Landings – The moon landings were frauds done in a Hollywood movie studio

Pearl Harbor – Roosevelt let the attack happen so he could take America to war against Nazi Germany

Jewish domination of financial markets – The Jews own all of the money, banks, and control the Global Economy

Lady Diana – Murdered by the British Royal Family because she had become too much of an embarrassment

Any Number of Bogus “Stories” floating around the Internet – Checking snopes.com, and they’re almost always false

Other Research Problems	How does it materialize?
Use of hyperbole	Dramatic, exaggerated phrases. Use of words like “very”, “extreme”, “unprecedented” to try and convince
Speaking for facts instead of letting facts speak for themselves	If the case is strong, facts shouldn’t need to be interpreted. If someone is interpreting facts, it may reflect on the weakness of the case
False dilemma	You can either have A or you can have B. (C, D, and E are never mentioned). It’s a false choice (aka False Dichotomy)