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Schiller_TET_15e_Chap020_PPT.pptxInternational Finance
LO20-1 How the value of a currency is measured.
LO20-2 The sources of foreign exchange demand and supply.
LO20-3 How exchange rates are established.
LO20-4 How changes in exchange rates affect prices, output, and trade
flows.
20
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After learning about this chapter, you should know
CHAPTER
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1
International Finance
Each country has its own currency (except in Europe, where many countries have adopted the euro).
International trade therefore involves two currencies – that of the exporter (which needs to pay bills in its currency) and that of the buyer (which pays for items using its currency).
20-02
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It might be worthy to set up a situation where students in your state must exchange currencies to buy in an adjacent state.
Ask what differences there would be for, say, a Texan to have to exchange his Texdollars for Okiemoney when he visits Tulsa.
2
International Finance II
The relative values of the two currencies affect trade patterns and the answers to the questions of WHAT, HOW, and FOR WHOM to produce.
We will focus specifically on,
What determines the value of one country’s money compared to the value of another’s?
What causes the international value of currencies to change?
How and why governments intervene to alter currency values?
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Since the answers to these questions are altered when prices change, it follows that a change in the exchange rate will alter prices and the answers to these questions.
3
Exchange Rates
Exchange rate: the price of one country's currency in terms of another’s; the domestic price of a foreign currency.
If US $1.50 = 1 euro, then US $1 = 0.67 euro.
If US $1.25 = 1 euro, then US $1 = 0.80 euro.
Exchange rates in terms of each other must be reciprocals of each other.
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The reciprocity is vital. If it doesn’t exist, arbitrageurs will enter the exchange market and make it exist. They will buy the cheaper currency and simultaneously sell the expensive one. That increases the demand for the cheap one, driving its price up and increasing the supply of the expensive one, driving its price down.
4
Foreign Exchange Markets
U.S. travelers to Europe have a demand for euros and a supply of dollars.
European visitors to Disney World have a demand for dollars and a supply of euros.
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It might be a good idea to sort out those who have a demand for dollars and those who have a supply of dollars.
Then do the same for those who have a demand for euros and those who have a supply of euros.
5
Foreign Exchange Markets II
U.S. exporters of goods to Europe get paid in euros. They have a supply of euros and a demand for dollars, which they need to pay their bills.
European exporters of goods to the U.S. get paid in dollars. They have a supply of dollars and a demand for euros.
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It might be a good idea to sort out those who have a demand for dollars and those who have a supply of dollars.
Then do the same for those who have a demand for euros and those who have a supply of euros.
6
Foreign Exchange Markets III
The market demand for U.S. dollars originates in:
foreign demand for American exports.
foreign tourists in America.
foreign demand for American investments.
currency speculators.
possible government intervention.
The market demand for U.S. dollars represents a market supply of foreign currency.
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You could use this list to summarize the discussion you made for the previous slide.
7
Foreign Exchange Markets IV
The market supply of U.S. dollars originates in
American demand for imports.
American tourists abroad.
American investments in foreign countries.
Currency speculators.
Possible government intervention.
The market supply of U.S. dollars represents a market demand for foreign currency.
20-08
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And also this list.
8
The Value of the Dollar
The value of the dollar is indicated by its purchasing power.
A BMW costing 30,000 euros must be priced in dollars if it is to be sold in the United States.
If 1 euro = $1.50, then it will be priced at $45,000.
If the exchange rate changed to 1 euro = $1.60, then the BMW’s price in the United States would rise to $48,000.
At this higher price, the quantity of BMWs sold will decrease.
20-09
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Obviously this is a ceteris paribus situation. Excluded are transportation costs, advertising, interactions with competitors, etc.
9
The Value of the Dollar II
At a high euro price of the dollar, fewer will want to buy dollars and more will want to sell dollars.
There will be a surplus of dollars, and the dollar’s euro price will fall.
surplus
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Here we are simply showing that a foreign exchange market is simply a market, and it follows the rules of any market.
10
The Value of the Dollar III
At a low euro price of the dollar, more will want to buy dollars and fewer will want to sell dollars.
There will be a shortage of dollars, and the dollar’s euro price will rise.
The foreign exchange market will adjust to its equilibrium price.
shortage
20-11
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More analogy to any market.
11
The Value of the Dollar IV
Any increase in demand for the dollar or decrease in supply of the dollar will push the dollar price in euros up.
The dollar appreciates in value.
20-12
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Here we introduce the terms appreciation and depreciation.
12
The Value of the Dollar V
Any decrease in demand for the dollar or increase in supply of the dollar will push the dollar price in euros down.
The dollar depreciates in value.
20-13
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Here we introduce the terms appreciation and depreciation.
13
The Value of the Dollar VI
When the dollar appreciates against the euro, the euro depreciates in value relative to the dollar.
When the dollar depreciates against the euro, the euro appreciates in value relative to the dollar.
20-14
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Again the reciprocal nature of the two currency values.
14
The Balance of Payments
The summary of all international money flows is contained in the balance of payments.
Balance of payments: a summary record of a country’s international economic transactions in a given period of time.
20-15
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BOP accounting aims at a zero balance. In order to get there, the accountants need all pertinent information. It is unlikely that this will happen. So there is the statistical discrepancy. Students don’t like such “fudge factor” things.
15
The Balance of Payments II
The balance of payments is divided into three parts:
current account balance (which includes the trade balance)
capital account balance
statistical discrepancy
20-16
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BOP accounting aims at a zero balance. In order to get there, the accountants need all pertinent information. It is unlikely that this will happen. So there is the statistical discrepancy. Students don’t like such “fudge factor” things.
16
The Balance of Payments III
The current account balance includes
Money flows in the trade balance.
Merchandise exports and imports
Service exports and imports
Money flows in investment income, government grants, and private funds transfers.
There is a net dollar outflow in the current account.
20-17
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Let’s keep it simple and use only dollars.
Essentially, we buy our imports from foreigners; we get the goods, they get dollars.
They use some of those dollars to buy our exports; they get the goods, we get dollars.
They have dollars left over. This is the net dollar outflow in the current account.
17
The Balance of Payments IV
The capital account balance includes
Inflow due to foreign purchases of U.S. assets.
Outflow due to U.S. purchases of foreign assets.
Increase in U.S. official reserves.
Increase in foreign official assets in U.S.
There is a net dollar inflow in the capital account.
20-18
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Those dollars left over are put into a bank as savings.
The bank lends them to clients who wish to buy dollar-denominated assets (not merchandise or services).
A good place to buy dollar-denominated assets is the United States.
The dollars flow back to the United States as payment for the assets purchased by foreigners.
This is the net dollar inflow in the capital account.
18
The Balance of Payments V
If we had perfect accounting, the outflow in the current account would balance the inflow in the capital account.
Because of several time lags in collecting data, the third part of the balance of payments is the statistical discrepancy, which indeed balances the two accounts.
Therefore, the balance of payments always must equal zero.
20-19
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$out must equal $in. So, $out - $in = 0.
19
Market Dynamics
Depreciation: a fall in the price of one currency relative to another.
Caused by a decrease in demand or an increase in supply of the first currency.
Appreciation: a rise in the price of one currency relative to another.
Caused by an increase in demand or a decrease in supply of the first currency.
20-20
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This is a recap of depreciation and appreciation.
20
Market Dynamics II
The following could cause an increase in demand for the dollar
Foreign incomes rise faster than U.S. incomes.
Foreign prices rise faster than U.S. prices.
Foreigners have an increased need for U.S. goods.
U.S. interest rates become higher than in foreign countries.
20-21
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Here we look at why the demand or supply of a currency would change.
There are millions of participants in exchange markets every day. Each is acting in her own self-interest, trying to better herself.
Therefore, the demand for and supply of any currency will change frequently each day.
This activity is reflected by instantaneous changes in the exchange rates.
21
Market Dynamics III
The following could cause a decrease in demand for the dollar
U.S. incomes rise faster than foreign incomes.
U.S. prices rise faster than foreign prices.
Foreigners have an decreased need for U.S. goods.
U.S. interest rates become lower than in foreign countries.
Small changes like these occur all the time, and the $4 trillion foreign exchange market adjusts to those changes.
20-22
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Here we look at why the demand or supply of a currency would change.
There are millions of participants in exchange markets every day. Each is acting in her own self-interest, trying to better herself.
Therefore, the demand for and supply of any currency will change frequently each day.
This activity is reflected by instantaneous changes in the exchange rates.
22
Do Exchange Rates Matter?
Daily participants in international trade prefer stable exchange rates to reduce the uncertainty in planning.
Any exchange rate change automatically alters the prices of exports and imports of that country, affecting many business decisions.
20-23
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It is easier to plan international activities (trade, asset purchase, business deals, travel) if the exchange rates are stable (unchanging).
Uncertainty will reduce this activity a bit because people want to avoid risk.
23
Should the Government Control Exchange Rates?
The goal would be to achieve exchange rate stability, but that could lead to other economic effects.
The standard way to eliminate instability in exchange rates is to adopt fixed exchange rates, where all major trading countries agree to keep the exchange rates between each currency fixed.
20-24
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This is government intervention into the free market, pure and simple. It is a price control on the exchange rates. It doesn’t matter that several countries collude to do it. From a buyer and seller point of view, it is a price control.
24
Should the Government Control Exchange Rates? II
The easiest way to fix exchange rates is to define each currency’s value against a common standard, such as a gold standard: an agreement by countries to fix the price of their currencies in terms of gold.
The problem with fixed exchange rates is that the demand for and the supply of each currency will continue to fluctuate, and a fixed exchange rate does not account for this.
20-25
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The main advantage of the gold standard is the inability of the government and the central bank in each country to debase the value of its money.
Since the United States abandoned the gold standard in 1973, the value of the dollar has dwindled enormously as the Fed has greatly increased the dollar supply.
25
Fixed Exchange Rates
With fixed exchange rates (at e1), the increase in demand for pounds generates a shortage of pounds.
More dollars flow out than flow in, so it creates a balance of payments (BOP) deficit for the United States and a BOP surplus for Britain.
20-26
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Market forces will not stop because of a fixed exchange rate.
26
Fixed Exchange Rates II
What to do?
Let the exchange rate rise (not acceptable), or the U.S. government intervenes by selling pounds and buying dollars.
Also, the U.S. could transfer gold to Britain for dollars.
This can be done once or twice, but cannot be kept up forever.
20-27
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There is an upper limit to the amount of pounds the government can sell or the amount of gold it can transfer.
Ultimately there will be a devaluation. This occurs when the devaluating country formally declares that its central bank will no longer support the currency. Henceforth the new fixed exchange rate is lower than before.
27
Fixed Exchange Rates III
Alternatively, erect protective barriers to eliminate the increased demand for British goods.
Or increase taxes to reduce disposable income and thereby, the demand for imports.
Or raise interest rates to slow spending and to draw foreign currency to the United States.
20-28
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The more a country defends its currency against changing demand and supply, the more it surrenders internal tools to combat problems such as high unemployment or high inflation at home. Devaluation will boost domestic inflation but lower unemployment as the country’s exports will look cheaper to customers.
Revaluation (happens in the other country) would lower inflation pressures but could cause increased unemployment as that country’s exports suddenly become more expensive.
28
Application: The Economy Tomorrow
Currency bailouts
Sometimes a country gets into deep trouble with its balance of payments and cries to the rest of the world for help.
A currency “bailout” is arranged, where the country in trouble is lent reserves to prop up its currency. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) usually leads the rescue.
20-29
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There have been bailouts of this type in Asia and in Latin America.
If it were not a euro country, there probably would not need to be a bailout for Greece (and possibly Spain and Italy).
29
Application: The Economy Tomorrow II
Currency bailouts
Some say that bailouts are ultimately self-defeating. If a country knows it will be bailed out, it might not practice sound economic policy.
The IMF requires the nation to adhere to more prudent monetary, fiscal, and trade policies.
Will other countries need a bailout? There are many reasons a country could get into trouble in the economy tomorrow.
20-30
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This is a moral hazard situation. Why bother to enact unpopular measures that could cost us the next election if we can rely on other countries to bail us out of our situation?
30
Revisiting the Learning Objectives
LO20-1 Know how the value of a currency is measured.
Exchange rates are the mechanism for translating the value of one national currency into the equivalent value of another.
An exchange rate of $1 = 2 euros means that one dollar is worth two euros in foreign exchange markets.
20-31
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Here begins the review for the chapter.
31
Revisiting the Learning Objectives II
LO20-2 Know the sources of foreign exchange demand and supply.
The supply and demand for foreign currency reflect the demands for imports and exports, international investment, currency speculation, and overseas activities of government (and tourists).
20-32
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Here begins the review for the chapter.
32
Revisiting the Learning Objectives III
LO20-3 Know how exchange rates are established.
There is a huge market in foreign currency that is worldwide. Daily changes in demand for and supply of each currency are immediately incorporated into the foreign exchange market.
This market will determine the current equilibrium price between two currencies.
20-33
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Revisiting the Learning Objectives IV
LO20-4 Know how changes in exchange rates affect prices, output, and trade flows.
Currency appreciations make foreign goods more costly to buyers of imports. Trade flows will decrease. Vice versa applies.
Currency appreciations make domestically produced goods more costly to export. Again trade flows will decrease. Vice versa applies.
20-34
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Looking Ahead: Chapter 21
Global Poverty
After learning about this chapter, you should know
How U.S. and global poverty are defined.
How many people in the world are poor.
What factors impede or promote poverty reduction.
20-35
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