Order 1369262: Planning

Introduction

Scenario planning is one of the strategic management instruments management tool. It encourages leaders to visualize possible future states and strategies on how to get maximum benefits from opportunities while avoiding potential risks (Miller, & Waller, 2003). This paper covers the characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages of scenario planning. The tool is useful when managers have to decide uncertainty. The planning approach enables the management team to put into consideration all the company’s portfolio of dealing. The guide makes it possible to develop medium and long-term strategic plans by analyzing different possible scenarios (Scenario Planning Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, 2009, p.3). Scenario planning helps develop strategies and policies that are flexible, resilient, innovative, and robust. Scenario planning allows people to be able to explore how the world would change if specific things happened and the option that could be better among several scenarios is chosen.

Characteristics of the scenario planning guide Plausible

The scenarios need to be reasonable. The creations must be a reflection of the real word. Although there are uncertainties, the scenarios need to be based on real-life ideas and then imaginations of how the current situations will change over time. Using real-world situations helps in creating real possibilities and provides the basis for analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of an alternative. Internally consistent

The scenarios must apply to the internal environment of an organization. The circumstances help an organization for a plan on possible futures hence creations need to be consistent with the organization. The plans and strategy that are chosen will be applied in the organization so that it can develop its internal and external environment. The plan must apply to the environment of an organization. Thorough analysis

One has to develop many scenarios that fit different future possibilities. Developing as many scenarios as possible helps in making sure the manager has a clear understanding of the future. The analysis should also be exact to make sure the plans will apply to the organization. Attractive and convincing

The scenarios one creates should be compelling after they are applied to the organization. Scenarios should also be engaging. Then after analyzing all of them, the manager should pick the one that is most compelling and engaging. Strengths Clear and easy to follow

The scenario planning guide is easy for people to follow. The explanation of the guide done in a clear way and it provides answers to readers’ questions. It is easy for a person to read, develop scenarios, and analyze them. The author provides steps on how to develop scenarios and how to analyze the scenario planning method that is most suitable for a specific situation. Scenario planning steps make it easy to identify weaknesses such as disruptive events and technological discontinuity and consider them when developing long-term plans. Help compare many options

The scenario planning guide makes it possible for a person a person applying it to identify many options and then settle on the best (Cooper, et al., 2009, p.12). Creating many options enables one to identify the strongest option that has a competitive advantage. Scenario planning also makes a person develop a better understanding of possible futures, how they will come about, and the reason they will happen. The understanding of the arguments makes it easy to develop strong strategies that lead to short-term and long-term benefits. Forces managers to imagine new possibilities

The process of developing scenarios makes the person or team creating the scenarios to consider putting into considerations all elements that relate to a scenario (Lindgren. & Bandhold, 2003, p.59). The process also helps a person find new considerations which they would not identify if they never committed to developing many different possible futures. Provides new perspective to existing decisions

The guide sets a process which requires a person to develop different future possibilities that would result from decisions. Managers have to reframe decisions for them to come up with new possibilities. As a result, a person can view a decision from different perspectives. It also challenges organizational beliefs that have been in existence for a long time. Using the scenario planning guide helps a person come up with contingency plans.

Since every possible future scenario requires possible results, a person can identify the strengths and weakness that may result from a scenario. If any negative consequences may arise from a decision, the manager can learn about it and develop contingent measures even before implementing the plan.

Allows the manager to project optimistic and pessimistic past events

Scenario plan recognizes that the future is a continuation of the past dynamics an relationships which can be influenced by humans through actions and decisions (Lindgren. & Bandhold, 2003, p.48). The scenario planning process makes it possible for the manager to project past and current events, hence get a clear view of the future. The process of creating scenarios relies on the available information. Then the creation requires the projection of available details to create a possible future. Weaknesses Wishful thinking when creating scenarios

At times managers develop wishful thinking while creating a possible future (Cooper, et al., 2009, p.25). Wishful thinking is not a true reflection of the knowledge and understanding one has about a topic. Wishful thinking presents wrong data and information. Such a mistake can ruin the whole processes and require the manager and their teams to repeat. There are high chances that a plan developed using wishful thinking will fail to address the purpose of the scenario planning activity. Hence, it will lead to failure if implemented. Time-consuming

Practicing scenario planning requires a lot of time (Lindgren. & Bandhold, 2003, p.61). Managers may be tempted to condense scenarios and make them a one day or few hour activities. But the participants will be unable to evaluate all possible scenarios exhaustively. The qualitative approach may fail to emphasize on selection right participants

Scenario planning requires people who have a good understanding of the subject matter and have interacted with it in the past. Prior knowledge about a topic helps create many possible and relevant future possibilities while lack of it leads to few and weak scenarios. Requires managers to collect information and data

Managers have to collect information and data from various sources even if they have deep knowledge and understanding of the topic they are investigating (Lindgren. & Bandhold, 2003, p.15). Then the data and information have to be interpreted. The process of collecting and interpreting data is tiresome. Collection of information and data makes scenario planning to be time-consuming.

Conclusion

The planning process requires people in an organization to brainstorm and analyze the area under investigation; hence it enhances communication and coordination. Managers who use scenario planning provide proactive leadership. Scenario planning process makes clear the aims, strategies, opportunities, and risks that are shared between different departments in an organization. However, scenario planning can only be used when the topic under exploration is clear to everyone.

Reference

Lindgren, M. and Bandhold, H., 2003. Scenario planning. Palgrave.

Cooper, H., Hedges, L.V. and Valentine, J.C. eds., 2009. The handbook of research synthesis

and meta-analysis. Russell Sage Foundation.

Miller, K. D., & Waller, H. G. (2003). Scenarios, real options and integrated risk

management. Long range planning, 36(1), 93-107.

Scenario Planning Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre (2009). Scenario Planning. UK

Government Office for Science. Retrieved from http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140108141323/http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/d ocs/horizon-scanning-centre/foresight_scenario_planning.pdf